INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 AM PDT SAT JUL 10 1999
CONVECTION STILL OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN HALF OF
THIS FCST AREA. NOSE OF A 700 MB SPEED MAX...AS INDICATED ON RUC
ANALYSIS ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE HELPING TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL CA
WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS SOUTH OF FRESNO COUNTY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.
PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE MAX TEMPS. AREAS OF PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN
THE SOUTH VALLEY...AND OUTFLOW FROM INYO COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST KERN
COUNTY MAY HOLD TEMPS UNDER CURRENT FCST VALUES. FOR THE MOST
PART...CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS. SO WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE DEBRIS TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT VALUES SINCE CURRENT
TEMPS 2-7 DEGS ABOVE YESTERDAY...AND WILL OFFSET AFFECTS OF MORNING
CLOUDS. MODELS SHOWING SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL DRYING OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS...SO STORMS NOT QUITE AS MANY AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY DESERTS. PW/S ACROSS DESERT AREAS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1
INCH. HOWEVER...STABILITY INDICIES ONLY NEAR -1 AFTERNOON HOURS AND
SURFACE DEW PTS ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY HIGH SO THINK FF POTENTIAL
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. PER COORD WITH LAS...WILL NOT GO WITH FF
WATCH...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN STATUS-QUO WITH MONSOON IN FULL SWING.
FAT 000 BFL 1-- YNP 333 BINGHAM
.HNX...NONE.
FAT BU 102/073 105/076 106 85000
BFL BU 100/073 103/076 104 851--
YNP BB 093/062 094/064 095 85333
FXUS66 KMTR 100930 ca
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
920 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS DIED DOWN ACROSS THE CWA WITH LEFT OVER
MID AND HI CLOUDS STILL AROUND. ALREADY UPDATED TO REMOVE CHC OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT AND REDUCED POPS TO 20 WITH A FEW PATCHS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES STILL ON THE RADAR SCOPE AN HOUR AGO.
00Z MAPS SFC ANALYSIS...SHOWING FRONT STILL OFF TO THE NORTH NEAR
SRN TN BORDER AREA WITH 1015 LOW PRES MOVING INTO WRN MS. 21Z RUC KEEPS
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AL/GA THROUGH 09Z AND INDICATES
MOST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. 18Z MESO
ETA INDICATING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OFFSHORE WATERS BUT BIG BEND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR.
WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIP AND BRING IN DECREASING CLOUDINESS TREND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
VOLKMER
FXUS72 KMFL 110103 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
CURRENTLY...THE VORT CENTER CONTINUES TO SLID EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. LAST TWO RUC MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE SAME SCENARIO AS OUTLINED THIS AM...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MARION...FLAGLER...PUTNAM AND ST.
JOHNS COUNTIES. THE SUWANNEE VALLEY COUNTIES POPS WERE INCREASED TO
70 PCNT (THANKS KTLH) AND WE'LL LET THEM RIDE AN AREA OF PRECIP IS
MOVING OUT OF THE BIG BEND/APALACHEE BAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MIDWEST SLIDES EAST
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION MAINTAINING THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA). THE VORT
CENTER OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. CONVECTION SHOULD POPS THROUGH LATE NIGHT WITH THE VORT
CENTER AROUND. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MORE DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION...
EXCEPT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA.
MARINE...NGM BRIEFLY INCREASES WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BUT
DROPS THEM DOWN BY DAWN. DON'T BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION. AVN AND ETA
ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHER WINDS WELL BEYOND THE COASTAL
WATERS AREA. CWF LOOKS FINE AS IS.
PRELIM
AMG 72/93/73/88 3555
SSI 74/90/74/89 3534
JAX 71/94/72/93 3534
GNV 70/93/70/92 3524 05
SANDRIK
FXUS72 KMFL 101751 fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTER OF STATE HAS SHOWN NIL MOVEMENT FROM
FRIDAY. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRIED A LITTLE SINCE FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL EXIST FOR STORMS
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE NORTH. SEABREEZE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LATER IN FORMATION DUE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS LIMITING
AN EARLY WARM UP AREA WIDE. RUC MODEL SHOWS LOW A LEVEL SW WIND
PICKING UP OVER THE N COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COMBINATION
OF SEA BREEZE AND THE INCREASED SYNOPTIC WIND ALONG WITH ACTIVE WEST
COAST BREEZE WILL GIVE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM INTERIOR
CENTRAL FL TO VOLUSIA COUNTY. OVER THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST
STORMS HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE COAST THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN WEAK STEERING WINDS INVOF AND SOUTH OF RIDGE
AXIS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH COAST WILL BE
WITH INITIAL FORMATION OF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING. NO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO ZONE FCST ATTM.
TKS JAX FOR COORD
.MLB...NONE.
PENDERGRAST/GLITTO
FXUS62 KTAE 101341 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
910 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
LOOKING AT THE EARLY VIS SAT IMAGERY AND WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS
THAT THE RUC MODEL HAVE THE SITUATION NAILED DOWN THIS AM.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS A VORT CENTER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH
THE GREATEST SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONV IN THAT AREA. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THAT IS WHEN THE CONVECTION IS.
THE MODEL INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE THIS MORNING ALONG
INTERSTATE 10 WITH THE VORT CENTER EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION. SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT OVER THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND AREAS WEST OF I-75 LATER THIS MORNING.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FROM
CRESCENT LAKE NORTH ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND THEN INTO COASTAL
GEORGIA. LI'S DECREASE TO -5 ABOUT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM LIFT. SO SEE
THAT AS BEING THE SECOND AREA TO POP. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHOULD
PROVIDE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND ALSO HOLD THEM BACK FROM THE
BEACHES/INLETS UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST OF SE GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA IS VERY MOIST
WITH THE GREATEST LIFT AND MOISTURE BEING OVER THE CRESCENT LAKE...
OCALA NATIONAL FOREST AND PALATKA AREAS. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SHOULD
BE WET BY THAT TIME...BUT SUSPECT THAT ABOVE HIGHLIGHTED AREA WILL
BE THE MAIN AREA OF STRONG...TO POSSIBLY PULSE SEVERE STORMS...FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MY GUT FEELING IS TO UP THE POPS
IN THIS AREA TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND 1030 AND RE-COORD WITH KMLB BEFORE UPDATING.
WITH THE VORT CENTER OVER SW GA EXTENDING TO THE SSI/BQK AREAS AND
GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER SE GA WOULD RECOMMEND KATL
INCREASE POPS UP A CATEGORY TO A GOOD CHANCE - 50 PERCENT RANGE.
CWF...MARINE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WITH SW WINDS EXPECT 2 FEET
NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE. STORMS MAY COVER THE INLETS AND
PASSES BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THANKS FOR THE COORD KMLB.
SANDRIK
fl
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1015 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 8 PM 500 MB DATA SHOWED A MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM WESTERN SC TO SOUTHEAST GA. THE RUC FORECASTS THIS FEATURE TO BE
OFF THE GA COAST BY 8 AM...AS AN EAST-WEST STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
ACROSS TN. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER NIGHT IN FAR NORTH GA...
BUT THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER AR. THE
ZONE FORECAST UPDATES FOR TONIGHT WILL SHOW CHANCES OF RAIN RANGING
FROM 50 PERCENT FAR NORTH TO 30 PERCENT CENTRAL AND 20 PERCENT FAR
SOUTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER
THE NORTH WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALLS WERE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
.ATL...NONE.
SCHAUB
FXUS72 KFFC 101958 ga
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
900 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
DIURNAL CU HAVE GIVEN WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...THE RESULT OF SURFACE RIDGING WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.
FORECAST IS NOT AS STRAIGHT FORWARD OVER EASTERN UPPER...HOWEVER...
AND THIS REPRESENTS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. IR SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...
MOVING SLOWLY SE. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH MODEST 850/500 MB FRONTOGENETICAL/QG
FORCING...MAINLY THE RESULT OF STRONG WAA OCCURRING ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. WHILE THE 12Z MODELS WANTED TO SLIDE THE RESULTING
MOISTURE SAFELY EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE
RUC BRINGS HIGHER RH/S AND PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 09Z SUNDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE
TRENDS...WHICH SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS MOVING TO THE SE. WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EASTERN UPPER LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
HAVE MODIFIED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ONLY
SLIGHTLY...RAISING THEM JUST A BIT.
.APX...NONE.
SMITH/ADAM
FXUS63 KGRR 101947 mi
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
240 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS WITHIN THE CWA. WV SATL IMAGE
THIS AFTN SHOWING RIDGING PERSISTENT OVER THE WRN US WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALONG NWLY FLOW. PESKY SC HANGING IN
TOUGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN. LATEST RUC
THOUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE IMPROVEMENT THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND WK WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR LOW
RECORDS FOR GRI/HSI/EAR. MOS GUID LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESS AND A DRY TROP LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THRU
PERIOD FOUR. MOS GUID ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE THRU THE REST OF THE
PERIODS AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW. AS FOR THE EXT FCST...CONTINUED
DRY ON TUES AND WED WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
POPS TO WED NITE AND THURSDAY AS THE MRF PUSHES THRU A COLD FRONT
THRU THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC LOW PRESS OVER SRN CANADA.
.GID...NONE.
DEE
FXUS63 KLBF 101840 ne
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
320 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999
...EXPANSE/DURATION OF CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN CWFA FIRST CONCERN
WITH TEMPS TO FOLLOW...
11U-3U FOG PRODUCT SAT IMG DEPICTS DECK OF SC ADVANCING S FROM SE
SD INTO NE NEBR. ASOS OBS PUT BASES BETWEEN 3000-6000 FT. SC
FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF H85 DEWPT DEP OF < 4 DEGREES AND
CAA. RUC BRINGS SC SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CWFA THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WITH THIS IN MIND...FOR NOW...I WILL SPLIT FORECAST TO
MENTION BKN CLOUDS SOMEWHERE N OF I-80 THIS AM BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE AFTN. MOSTLY SUNNY REST OF CWFA S OF I-80.
MODERATE HEIGHT RISES TO OUR WEST ON 00Z ANALYSIS WITH ALL MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING HIGH AMP RIDGE. THIS PUTS OUR CWFA UNDER NW
FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME LOW/MID LVL CAA SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTH AS
TROUGH DIGS TO OUR EAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RESULT TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS MENTIONED FOR
TONIGHT IN ZONE PACKAGE. WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUID AND NO
REASON TO. HIGHS TODAY MOST AREAS 75-80. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS
CWFA ARE...EAR/52...GRI/51...HSI/50. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND
LIGHT EAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE THESE READINGS VERY APPROACHABLE.
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SETUP FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER WITH RETURN OF SE WIND
FLOW BUT LIMITED LLM. SOME AFTN CU/SC SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW SO WILL MOSTLY SUNNY ALL AREAS. SFC DEWPTS WILL REMAIN LOW
WITH MID 50S ABOUT THE LIMIT THROUGH 12Z MON. ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS CWFA ON MON AS PER AVN...BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEF
AROUND 90 MB SHOULD PREVENT ANY PCPN FROM FORMING SO I WILL ELIMINATE
IT FROM THE EXTENDED. SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE BUT INVERTED SOUNDING
SHOULD PREVENT ANY PCPN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. DRY THROUGH
EXTENDED WITH NO CHANGE TO TEMPS.
.GID...NONE.
PURDY
ne
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
850 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRE FRONTAL TROF SITUATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THIS IS HELPING TO FIRE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CHANCES FOR THUNDER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND IS STILL MAKING DECENT PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST WARD.
FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE RAH CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH.
RADAR SHOWING LARGE BUT BROKEN AREA OF PRECIP EXTENDING BACK INTO
SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. BOTH RUC AND MESOETA INSIST THAT PRECIP WILL
OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SINCE PRECIP IS BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT
MOVES SOUTH AND EAST...DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE A STEADY RAIN
EVERYWHERE ALL NIGHT. SO WILL MOST LIKELY LEAVE FORECAST AS IS WITH
GOOD CHANCE POPS...OR PERHAPS RAISE TO LIKELY ACROSS JUST THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE VICINITY.
.RDU...NONE.
MRD
********** NOTICE OF CHANGE JULY 15, 1999 AT 900 AM*****************
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION(SFD) BECOMES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD)
AFOS/NOAA WEATHER WIRE ID RDUSFDRDU RDUAFDRAH
WMO/FAMILY OF SERVICES ID FXUS72 KRDU FXUS62 KRAH
********************************************************************
FXUS62 KMHX 110037 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
836 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY WELL SKIRTED THE MHX CWA SO FAR...WITH RDU AND
AKQ MUCH BUSIER WITH EVENING CONVECTION. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
FOCUSED ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE VA/NC
BORDER...WHILE THE ACTUAL COLDFRONT IS STILL BACK NEAR THE VA/WV
BORDER. GIVEN CAPES OVER 3100 J/KG AND LI'S TO -7 ON THE 00Z MHX
SOUNDING...FEEL OUR HI CHC POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RUC-II SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AROUND
09Z-12Z...WITH WIND SHIFT TO NW/NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH FRONT
SLOWING TO A CRAWL AND HI MEAN RH'S IN PLACE...EXPECT A GOOD SHOT A
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY.
COASTAL...WINDS GUSTING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WELL OFFSHORE AND
TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE COAST. ETA 10M AND RUC-II BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SHOW DIMINISHING TREND TOWARD MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THAT
WORDING. NEXT SHIFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP SCA.
.MHX...SCA CSTL WTRS AND SNDS.
COLLINS
FXUS72 KRAH 101830 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1041 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WARM AIR
MASS IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH +18 DEGREE AIR AT 850 MB
ACROSS NC AT 12Z. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WILL
ALSO AID IN THE HEATING...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AREAS. WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105 TO 110 RANGE. WITH WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS WELL CAPPED AND MHX SOUNDING SHOWED A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH
K INDEX OF ONLY 9. ALTHOUGH THE GSO SOUNDING WAS MORE MOIST...WITH
THAT MOISTURE HEADING THIS WAY...DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
TODAY. THE MAIN RAIN THREAT WILL BE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT...WHICH WAS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA EXTENDING BACK THROUGH SRN OH AT 13Z...
APPROACHES. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO HAVE PRECIP WELL AHEAD OF
IT...BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A TROF IN EXTREME WRN NC...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THAT AREA OF PRECIP TO PROGRESS EWD INTO OUR AREA. LATEST RUC
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR IN ERN NC THRU 00Z AND TROF AXIS DOES
NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR EAST. THEREFORE WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIP
FROM FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CWF: WINDS CURRENTLY IN 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA....AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE SW TODAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
APPROACHING FRONT AND OFFSHORE HIGH.
.MHX...SCA CSTL WTRS AND SNDS.
HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON COASTAL PLAIN
(NCZ 029-044-079-090-091)
RSB
FXUS62 KILM 101416 nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
845 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999
...LEFTOVER SHRA AND TEMPS/CLOUDS CURRENT FORECAST CONCERNS...
KMVX 88D SETTLING DOWN AS SHRA/-TSRA COURTESY OF NORTHERN VORT MAX
AND ASSOCIATED COOL POOL ALOFT WEAKEN WITH LESSENING OF SUN ANGLE.
JUST A FEW LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND CWA WITH
PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN BRIEF WIND GUST TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLE
SPRINKLE. IR LOOP SHOWS CIRCULATION CENTER APPROACHING INTL BORDER
ALONG I-29 CORRIDOR AND BREAKING UP AS IT DOES SO. CONVECTION RIGHT
UNDER COOLEST POOL IN MANITOBA HAS SEVERELY WEAKENED AS WELL DURING
LAST HOUR...SO WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP IN THIS UPDATE.
SFC ANALYSIS YIELDS APPARENT WEAK TROF PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN RRV
INTO NWRN MN WITH MORE NW WIND BEHIND IT AN W AHEAD. POCKET OF
HIGHER TDS IN NRN RRV ACCOMPANIES FEATURE...WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
IN SE CWA. SLOW MOVEMENT TO FEATURE MEANS ACCOMPANYING SCT HIGH
BASED CU/LOW AC WILL FLOAT ACROSS CWA FOR PART OF NIGHT...WITH
MESO-ETA/RUC INDICATING HIGHEST H7 MOIST BAND IN WESTERN CWA...BUT
THIS PLACEMENT SUSPECT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRACKING VORT TOO FAR
WEST ALL DAY.
OVERALL BELIVE PCLDY WILL HANDLE FCST BETTER IN PARTS OF CWA ATTM
INSTEAD OF CLEAR WITH UPSTREAM DEBRIS AND AFORMENTIONED CIRCULATION
TO TRACK ACROSS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN NORTH AND NORHTEAST ZONES MAY
NOT FALL AS QUICKLY AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER
AND POCKET OF HIGHER TD/S FORECAST TO LINGER MUCH OF NIGHT...SO WILL
ADJUST FEW SPOTS SLIGHTLY UPWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.
AMENDED ZONES OUT BY 920 PM CDT.
.FGF...NONE.
SOROKA
FXUS63 KFGF 102245 nd
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1020 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE INCLUDES TEMPS AND PCPN CHANCES. 12Z RUC
INITIALIZED VORT MAX TOO FAR WEST TRACKING FEATURE THROUGH WEST/CENTRAL
NODAK WHERE IN REALITY EXTRAPOLATION FROM SW LOOP WOULD HAVE IT
TRACKING SE THROUGH FA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG RUC AND ACTUAL TRACK
YIELD LI'S FROM -1 TO -2...CAPES <500 J/KG AND JPWATS LESS THAN AN
INCH. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SHRA WITH VORT AND COLD POOL ALOFT
HOWEVER WITH VORT TRACKING OVR SFC HIGH...ABOVE INDICIES AND LACK OF SFC
RELECTION WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. SOUNDINGS DO HOWEVER
INDICATE AN INVERTED V SOUNDING SO ANY SHRA THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE
CAPABILITIES OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. OVERALL TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK AND NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED.
.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER
FXUS63 KFGF 100825 nd
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999
ALREADY SENT ZONES TO UPDATE SOME TEMPORAL WORDING AND POPS.
ALSO...RUC AND MESO ETA SHOWING MID LEVEL RH VALUES REMAINING HIGH
OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH IS
CORRESPONDING WELL WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. THEREFORE...WORDED
MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RAISED MINS A TOUCH IN SOME OF THE EASTERN
ZONES.
HOWIESON
FCSTID = 44
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
FXUS64 KOUN 110231 ok
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1020 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 69...WITH ANOTHER SMALL AREA AROUND CREEK AND
OKMULGEE COUNTIES...AND OVER PUSHMATAHA COUNTY. THIS IS ALL AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROF WHICH THE RUC PROGS TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
EAST. THE TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDFRONT
PROGGED TO BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. 850 FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BUT WILL ALSO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY THE
END OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE AND 850 MB
BOUNDARIES...EXPECT THE CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROF LINE. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THAT LINE SHOULD BE FROM AROUND GRAND LAKE TO
HENRYETTA. WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT
LINE WITH LOW OR NO POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
CLOUD LINE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT VERY SLOWLY. DO
NOT EXPECT THAT CLEARING LINE TO REACH TULSA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON OR
LATER. HIGHEST TEMPS WILL THEN BE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND IN
THE CLEARING OVER OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND TEMPS GIVEN THAT REASONING.
FCSTID = 2
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
FXUS64 KTSA 101004 ok
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999
PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
POPS
TEMPERATURES
RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LEFTOVER MESOLOW JUST NW OF TUL ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. 06Z RUC IS BY ITSELF AMONG THE MODELS IN FORECASTING HEAVIEST
PRECIP THIS MORNING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MESOLOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TUL AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD WASH OUT DURING
THE DAY WITH THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT BECOMING THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ASSIGNED HIGHEST FIRST PERIOD POPS TO THE
MLC-FSM AREAS...WHICH IS WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD BE DURING PEAK
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. TEMPS TODAY ARE A CHALLENGE DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN-COOLED AIR...BUT GENERALLY WENT WITH THE COOLER AVN
MOS...EXCEPT ARND IDB WHERE MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER TONIGHT AND
TURN UP STATIONARY ACROSS NRN TX ON SUN. WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF POPS
TONIGHT AND SUN MRNG SOUTH OF I-40. BEHIND THE FRONT...AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. CLEAR
NIGHTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING 50S TO THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NW AR
FROM SUN THROUGH TUE MRNGS.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...REMOVED POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR SE OK ON
WED. MRF BRINGS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE SW GULF AT THAT
TIME...WHICH USUALLY KEEPS CONVECTION SUPPRESSED ACROSS OUR AREA.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS ON MON AND TUE TO SHOW A SLOWER WARMUP WITH
90S MAKING A RETURN TO MOST PLACES ON WED.
FCSTID = 22
TUL 83 63 84 62 / 50 5 0 0
FSM 84 67 84 63 / 60 20 5 5
MLC 83 65 86 63 / 60 20 5 5
BVO 83 60 82 59 / 30 0 0 0
FYV 81 61 80 58 / 50 10 5 0
IDB 87 68 85 66 / 40 40 20 10
BYV 81 60 81 57 / 50 10 5 0
MIO 82 60 81 59 / 50 5 5 0
MKO 82 64 84 62 / 50 5 0 0
F10 81 64 85 63 / 50 5 0 0
HHW 86 67 85 66 / 40 40 20 10
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: SLIGHT CHANCE HEAVY
RAINFALL
NGM CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FXUS64 KOUN 100927 ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
805 EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
21Z RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK VORTICITY MAX OVER CWFA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CWFA ALSO ON THE SOUTHERN GRADIENT OF SOME GOOD Q CONVERGENCE
SHOWING UP IN THE 700 MB TO 300 MB LAYER. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE LOWER 70S AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING BOTH IN THE
CWFA AND UPSTREAM...I WILL LEAVE OVERNIGHT FORECASTS PRETTY MUCH AS
THEY ARE. I MAY CHANGE WORDING TO SHOWERS LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...SINCE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM APPEARS TO BE DROPPING
MORE INTO GULF COAST STATES RATHER THAN ADVECTING THIS WAY.
I MAY ALSO ADD SOME FOG WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN AREAS WHERE GOOD
RAINS HAVE OCCURRED...BUT WILL MAKE THAT DECISION JUST BEFORE
ISSUANCE...BASED ON LATEST TRENDS OF TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS.
.GSP...NONE.
RBN
FXUS62 KCHS 101914 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
LINE OF TSRA MOVING THRU UPSTATE AND CLT METRO AREA ATTM. HAD SOME
GUSTY WINDS...GMU PEAK WIND 30...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THE LINE. MORE
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT NOW MOVING INTO WRN
CWFA. RUC SHOWS ATMOS TO REMAIN UNSTABLE THIS EVE EVEN AFTER THE
TSRA LINE PASSAGE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
LONGER TERM...LIKE AVN/ETA SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FNT. FNT STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU FORMING SFC
LOWS ALONG THE FNT. JUICY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWFA THRU
MONDAY. ALL THIS LEADS TO LIKELY PRECIP THRU THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP
CONVECTIVE WORDING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WITH
POSSIBLE TSRA IN SRN SECTIONS MONDAY AS WEDGE LIKE SFC RIDGING SETS
UP WITH NELY FLOW. HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY AND FLOODING COULD BECOME
A THREAT...BUT WOULD BE A PROBLEM LATER IN THE PERIOD AFTER PRECIP
HAS BEEN FALLING FOR A WHILE.
COOLING TREND FCST LOOKS GOOD. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CLOSE AND
REASONABLE. HIGHS MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH FOR MONDAY BUT DO NOT WANT
TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC YET.
AVL 64/75/63/73 6656
CLT 71/82/67/78 6656
GSP 70/82/67/78 6656
.GSP...NONE.
RWH
FXUS62 KCAE 101807 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1048 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING THRU NC MTNS ATTM HAVE HELD TOGETHER QUITE
NICELY AS THEY MOVED IN FROM TN. ATMOS UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS TN. LATEST RUC SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THRU TODAY. COMPOSITE CHART SHOWS BEST
CHANCE FOR SVR WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
GOOD SO MAY HAVE TO UP POPS ACROSS THE BOARD.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME HAS TAKEN A DRUBBING THE PAST TWO DAYS
AND WILL NOT USE AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY SINCE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FULL
SUN. FULL SUN TEMPS IN MID 90S. CURRENT FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE
BALLPARK BUT WILL CHECK LATEST OBS FOR POSSIBLE REVISION.
.GSP...NONE.
RWH
FXUS62 KCHS 101402 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
950 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
RUCII SHOWS ALMOST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. ALL MODELS
KEEP MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH BASICALLY NO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME LIFT IN THE UPSTATE THOUGH. MODELS DO DEVELOP SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. LIKE SOME LOW POPS
THOUGH..20% IN COUNTIES BORDERING GSP CWA AND LESS THAN THAT CLOSER TO
CAE AND AGS. RUCII/ETA SHOW ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIS -6/-8 AND CAPES 2400-2500. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER AT
1.60-1.80 INCHES BUT STILL AGREE WITH POPS OF PREVIOUS FORECASTER. WINDS
ARE UP A BIT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
SOME TO 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER HIGHS ONE CAT WITH BETTER
MIXING AND EXPECTED CLOUDS DURING COURSE OF AFTERNOON.
WRKZFP IN A FEW MINUTES.
.CAE...NONE.
TTH
sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1037 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999
LTL OF SIGNIFICANCE GOING ON TDA. SFC AND NR SFC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WL SHIFT INTO CWA THIS AFTN...AND TAKE RESIDENCE THIS
EVNG. FCST 8H TMPS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND REALLY ONLY 1 TO
1.5C DIFFERENCE IN ETA/NGM/RUC...WITH NGM/RUC WARMEST. TEMP GRADIENT
STRONGEST IN ETA...BUT STILL ONLY ARND 2C E TO W. BALANCE OF LOW
LVL FLOW STRENGTH E TO AIX MIXING...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TMPS W...WL
NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF DIFF OVR CWA THIS AFTN. TMPS MAY BE A HALF
CAT ON HIGH SIDE FOR FAR ERN CWA BASED ON MPX/OAX RAOBS...BUT WL
LEAVE BE. WHILE OFF A BIT ON DIRECTION LATE THIS MORNING...TREND IN
WINDS IS ON TRACK. VERY FEW CU ALL THAT SUPPORTED BY RAOBS SO A
MOSTLY SUNNY OR PC WOULD HANDLE WELL..SO...EXPECT NO UPDATES OTHER
THAN A NWR FRESHEN. ENJOY!
.FSD...NONE
CHAPMAN
FXUS63 KABR 101504 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
850 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999
SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE PUSHING SEWD INTO AL. SAT PIXS SHOW BRKS ACRS
KY AND NW TN. SUGGEST MENTIONING PTCHY DNS FOG FOR THE ZNS FOR AREAS
THAT ARE RAIN FREE. IR SAT PIXS SHOW STORMS FIRING UP IN SE AR. THE
MESOETA AND RUC SHOWS SFC WAVE FORMING ON CDFNT. MESOETA HAS LOW
ACRS N-NE AL WHILE RUC HAS IT AT SE AR AT 09Z. RUC HAS DEEPER MEAN
RH MSTR (90%) ACRS WRN 2/3 OF TN BUT MESOETA KEEPS THE MEAN RH AT
70-75% BY 09Z SUN. IF THESE MDLS ARE RIGHT EXPECT MORE STORMS TO
ENTER TN TNGT FROM THE WEST. I BELIEVE THE 01Z STREAM LINE ANALYSIS
AND ADAP PRODUCTS SHOW THE MAIN FNT ALG NRN AL AND NRN MS AND INTO
LOW OVR SE AR. THIS WUD ACCOUNT FOR THE FLAREUP OF STORMS RIGHT
NOW IN AR. RADAR ECHOES SHOW A SLIVER OF MSTR FROM NW MS TO
LEXINGTON TN. FOR RIGHT NOW...LET'S DROP POP TO 30 PCT FOR NRN TIER
OF ZNS AND MENTION PTCHY DNS FOG. KEEP 60 PCT FOR SRN ZNS. WL SEND
WRKZONES OUT SHORTLY.
$$
END/ORCHANIAN
FXUS64 KMRX 110105 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
SHRA/FEW TSRA ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF FA LATE
THIS MORNING. ACTION OCCURRING WELL AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS IN
POSITION NEAR OH RIVER. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS ARE POPS TOO HIGH FOR NE TN/SW VA. IT
WOULD APPEAR SO BUT...RUC INDICATES A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
FOR THIS AREA LATER IN AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR
PRECIP SO WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. WILL NEED TO RAISE POPS FOR
SRN VLY/SRN PLATEAU AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALREADY ONGOING AND
MAY CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG LOW-LEVEL TROF. WONDER IF MID 80S ARE
EVEN TOO OPTIMISTIC FOR MAXES TODAY CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED ON
FRIDAY WITH A BIT OF CU BUT...THIS TIME OF YEAR IS DOES NOT TAKE
MUCH TO BREAK WELL INTO THE 80S SO WILL LEAVE ALONE.
20
FXUS74 KMEG 101432 tn
WAKEFIELD FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999
SFC CDFNT STILL WELL NW OF CWFA THIS MRNG...ALTHO ASSOCD BAROCLINIC
PCPN BAND MUCH CLOSER TO RGN. XPC THIS BAND TO MAKE GRDL SEWD
PROGRESS DURG DAY. BUT...NOT BEFORE MAX HEATING. THUS...XPC SOME
CNVTN WITH BNDRY/PRE-FNTL TROF LTR THIS AFTN/TNGT. IN LOOKING AT 12Z
SOUNDINGS...AGREE WITH SELS ABOUT SVR POTENTIAL. WHILE WAL/MHX
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FAIRLY UNSTBL...VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW A LOT OF
WLY/WNWLY DOWNSLOPE ABV 1ST GATE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST CHCS FOR
DEEPENING OF LOLVL MSTR NOT GREAT. THUS...ACHIEVING SGFNT DESTBLZN
WILL BE A DIFFICULT TASK. 06Z RUC ALSO SUGS SOME DRYING OF LOLVL
DEWPTS...ALSO REFLECTING SHALLOW LOLVL MSTR DEPTH. BOTTOM LINE...
CURRENT POP FCST APPRS ON TRACK.
WITH LOTS OF SUN...SPCLY ERN/SERN AREAS...TEMPS XPCD TO WARM INTO
THE 90S MOST AREAS. XPCD DROP IN SFC DEWPTS WILL LMT AREA OF HI
VALUES AOA 105. CURRENT NERN XTNT OF HEAT ADVY MAY BE OVERDONE...
BUT WILL MAKE NO CHGS ATTM. ADVY WILL BE DROPPED WITH AFTN ISSUANCE
ANYWAY.
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS BEYOND 1ST PD. HWVR...SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SFC
FNT DEPICTED BY LTST MDLS SUGS CLRG WILL BE DLAD TIDEWATER AREAS.
WILL HANDLE THAT LTR.
XTND...IF LTST MRF IS CORRECT...COULD BE A FAIRLY WET WEEK ACRS MUCH
OF RGN. ELONGATED TROF REMAINS W OF AREA...AND RIPPLES OF ENERGY
LIFT NEWD ALONG WOBBLING BNDRY. PATTERN SIMILAR TO 2 WEEKS AGO...
WHEN SGFNT RNFL OCCURRED OVER CWFA AT A VERY OPPORTUNE TIME. STILL IN
DIRE NEED OF RAIN CNTRL/WRN/NRN VA...AND NC. IF MRF CORRECT...THESE
AREAS COULD BENEFIT THIS TIME. LET'S HOPE SO. WILL MAKE NO CHGS TO
CURRENT XTNDD WITH THIS PKG...BUT WILL INCORPORATE LTST MDL GUIDANCE
INTO AFTN PKG.
.CWF...WINDS CONT SLOWLY INCRG. SCA MRGL...BUT NO NEED TO CHG ATTM.
.AKQ...SCA CHES BAY S OF NEW POINT COMFORT...AND ATLC CSTL
WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.
HEAT ADVY...VAZ070>100-NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
SAMMLER
va