-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 041359
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
859 AM EST WED FEB 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
NATION TODAY, BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS S EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TODAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING A WARMING
TREND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
BASED OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED ABOUT A NOTCH TO TEENS NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH. ALSO, SOME
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALOFT AND BLYR
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
MOISTURE IS NOT WIDESPREAD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM, A LARGE FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE ERN CONUS.  AS A RESULT, A COUPLE OF COLD DAYS ARE IN
STORE, WITH DECENT NWLY FLOW.  TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE MID 20S IN MOST
LOCALES ON THURSDAY.  ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS.  IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE TROF MOVES
OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE W.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEWSFLASH!  IS A TOUCH OF SPRING IN STORE???  AN AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE MEAN H5
RIDGE GRADUALLY LOSES ITS GRIP.  FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION
DAY BETWEEN WINTER AND A FIRST HINT OF SPRING.

THE H5 TROF THEN MOVES INTO THE W COAST AND HGTS RISE AHEAD OF IT AS
THE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN SEABOARD REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WX FEATURE INTO SUNDAY.  THERE IS ALSO A WK SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS LOW ACRS SERN CANADA AND TRIES TO
BRING A CDFNT THRU, MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYS AND BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND QPF
SEEM VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, SO WILL NOT MENTION.  HOWEVER, CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE, WHICH MAY BE ENUF TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT.  THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRES FROM
CANADA RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  BY
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND A DECENT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS ALONG WITH THE MEAN H5
TROF.  THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP WITH THAT FRONT.

THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS THAT WE MAY HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY
WX WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.  SO FAR THIS YEAR, EVERY TIME THE MODELS
HAVE ADVERTISED A WARM UP IN THE EXTENDED IT HAS NOT HAPPENED, SO
ITS HARD TO BE OPTIMISTIC.  OF COURSE THOUGH, THE DAYS ARE GETTING
LONGER, THE SUN ANGLE HIGHER, SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY FOLLOW THRU ON THIS ONE.  BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, WE
COULD HAVE AT LEAST 5 DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S IN MANY AREAS
AND A FEW DAYS AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AT 1330Z, ALL AREAS HAD IMPROVED TO VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MIV
WHICH WAS MVFR. HOWEVER, RADAR AND SATL SHOWED THE LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE,
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT PERHAPS TIL 15Z
AT ACY/MIV.

AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA AND
MOVES DIRECTLY OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS FOR THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A
BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS MAY RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT, WITH
CEILINGS IN THE VFR RANGE.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY, SETTLING
INTO THE NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT.  THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD INFLUENCE OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.  HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING
BEFORE MOVING DIRECTLY OUT TO SEA.  MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH.  AS A
RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND ON DELAWARE BAY FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET FOR TODAY.  AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 600 PM ON THURSDAY.  A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR DELAWARE BAY FROM 600 PM THIS
EVENING UNTIL 600 PM ON THURSDAY.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY GAIN MORE CONTROL OVER OUR
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH.  A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...STAUBER
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/RNS
MARINE...IOVINO