000
FXUS61 KPHI 041730
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EST WED FEB 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
NATION TODAY, BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS S EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TODAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING A WARMING
TREND. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS SLIGHTLY BETTER.
THE FRESH SNOWCOVER IS HAVING TWO AFFECTS, TEMPS ARE NOT RISING AS
QUICKLY AND CU ARE NOT POPPING WITHIN OUR CWA. SO WE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS A SMIDGE AGAIN AND WENT MORE OPTIM WRT TO THE CLOUDS. SHOULD
ADD A THIRD AFFECT OF THE FRESH SNOW COVER. IT IS REALLY BRIGHT
OUTDOORS!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM, A LARGE FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE ERN CONUS.  AS A RESULT, A COUPLE OF COLD DAYS ARE IN
STORE, WITH DECENT NWLY FLOW.  TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE MID 20S IN MOST
LOCALES ON THURSDAY.  ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS.  IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE TROF MOVES
OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE W.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEWSFLASH!  IS A TOUCH OF SPRING IN STORE???  AN AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE MEAN H5
RIDGE GRADUALLY LOSES ITS GRIP.  FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION
DAY BETWEEN WINTER AND A FIRST HINT OF SPRING.

THE H5 TROF THEN MOVES INTO THE W COAST AND HGTS RISE AHEAD OF IT AS
THE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN SEABOARD REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WX FEATURE INTO SUNDAY.  THERE IS ALSO A WK SFC LOW OVER ONTARIO.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS LOW ACRS SERN CANADA AND TRIES TO
BRING A CDFNT THRU, MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYS AND BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND QPF
SEEM VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, SO WILL NOT MENTION.  HOWEVER, CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE, WHICH MAY BE ENUF TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT.  THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRES FROM
CANADA RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  BY
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND A DECENT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS ALONG WITH THE MEAN H5
TROF.  THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP WITH THAT FRONT.

THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS THAT WE MAY HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY
WX WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.  SO FAR THIS YEAR, EVERY TIME THE MODELS
HAVE ADVERTISED A WARM UP IN THE EXTENDED IT HAS NOT HAPPENED, SO
ITS HARD TO BE OPTIMISTIC.  OF COURSE THOUGH, THE DAYS ARE GETTING
LONGER, THE SUN ANGLE HIGHER, SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY FOLLOW THRU ON THIS ONE.  BEGINNING ON SATURDAY, WE
COULD HAVE AT LEAST 5 DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S IN MANY AREAS
AND A FEW DAYS AROUND 50.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVES
DIRECTLY OUT TO SEA, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS FOR
THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS MAY
RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT, WITH CEILINGS IN THE VFR RANGE.

THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY, SETTLING
INTO THE NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT.  THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD INFLUENCE OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.  HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSED OFF CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING
DIRECTLY OUT TO SEA.  MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST.  THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH.  AS A RESULT, WE ARE
EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND ON
DELAWARE BAY FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME, WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5
FEET FOR TODAY.  AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 600 PM ON THURSDAY.  A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR DELAWARE BAY FROM 600 PM THIS
EVENING UNTIL 600 PM ON THURSDAY.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY GAIN MORE CONTROL OVER OUR
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH.  A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...STAUBER/GIGI
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/RNS
MARINE...IOVINO