FXUS04 KWBC 231025 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 525 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2003 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID FEB 24/1200 UTC THRU FEB 26/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR WITH THE 06Z MDL RUNS IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE 00Z RUNS..MADE ONLY VRY MINOR CHGS TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF. ...DAY1... ...SRN PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE MID OH VLY... OTHER THAN THE ETA BEING JUST A LTL SLOER AND FARTHER S WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK THAN THE GFS SOLN..AT LEAST DURG THE 1ST HALF OF THE PD..MDLS ARE OTRW IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELD FCSTS REGARDING THE SYS MOVG THRU THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY. PCPN HAS CONTD TO EXPAND DVLP PAST SVRL HRS OR SO IN THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS..JUST AHD OF THE STG MID LVL SYS. ALTHO THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYS TO THE DOWNSTREAM ONE WON'T ALLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT MSTR INFLO WITH IT..THE MID LVL SYS IS NONETHELESS STG ENUF TO MAKE THE MOST OF WHAT MSTR IS AVBL SUCH THAT A STRIPE OF MDT TO HVY SNOWS IS LIKELY ALG AND JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE VORT TRACK FM SRN KS/NRN OK ENEWD INTO THE MID OH VLY. LEANED A LTL MORE TWDS THE SLGTLY HVIER ETA QPF HERE..BUT REALLY EVEN THE MDL QPF DIFFS WEREN'T THAT GREAT. PLS SEE QPFHSD AND GRAPHICS 93S AND 94S FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL POTNL. ...NERN STATES... THE RATHER STG AND SOMEWHAT NEG TILT MID LVL TROF LIFTING NNEWD THRU THE NERN STATES STILL HAS PRETTY DECENT LOW LVL WAA FEEDING INTO AT LEAST NRN NEW ENG ERY ON..SO THAT SOME MDT PCPN AMTS..MSTLY SNOW/SLEET..ARE LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN ME. MDL QPFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE..AND WERE PRETTY MUCH ACCEPTED. SOME WRAPARND MSTR WL ALSO SUPPORT A STRIPE OF LGT TO LCLY MDT PCPN TO THE LEFT OF THE SFC LOW TRACK FM WRN NY NNEWD INTO NRN VT..WITH MANUAL PROG LEANING A LTL MORE TWDS THE SLGTLY LESS ETA QPF SOLN. ...CA... THE MID/UPR LVL TROF IN THE ERN PAC GETS CLOSE ENUF TO THE NRN PTNS OF CA LTR IN THIS PD TO PRODUCE SOME GENLY LGT PCPN ..AS LOW LVL FLO BACKS TO SLY AND BRINGS IN A LTL HIER PW AIR. HOWEVER..BTR MID LVL FORCING AND INFLO OF EVEN HIER PWS WL WAIT TO JUST AFT THIS PD..SO AGAIN XPC MOST PCPN AMTS TO RMN ON THE LGT SIDE THRU 12Z SUN. DAY 2... SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF DIVES INTO CNTRL CA THIS PERIOD. MANUAL QPF LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ETA WITH ITS BETTER MODEL TOPOGRAPHY. EXPECT A LARGE PORTION OF CNTRL AND SRN CA TO RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF .50 INCH WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE SRN COAST SEEING MORE THAN 1 INCH. UPPER DIFFLUENCE SPREADS EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...FOUR CORNERS...AND CNTRL ROCKIES. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO TAP WEAK GULF INFLOW. STUCK MORE WITH THE LIGHTER ETA QPF ACROSS TX/LA/AR. MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH QPF OVER THE NORTHEAST. DAY 3... TROF MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST THIS PERIOD ACCOMPANIED BY MDT TO HEAVY PCPN THROUGHOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SOME PRETTY HEFTY SNOWFALL TOTALS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN UT...NRN AZ...WRN CO. THIS PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM SYSTEM PUSHES DOWNSTREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MOVES IT OVER A STRENGTHENING SFC BNDRY FROM NERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. EXPECT SOME DECENT RAINFALL JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER SERN OK AND WRN AR. LIGHTER AMTS EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND REACH INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. TERRY/MAUSSER GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov 24HR QP VT 24/12Z 0.01 529696 529703 522735 511765 509769 503778 496787 487793 479798 470804 453814 449817 449821 452830 456844 459849 462852 464855 468856 475862 477872 478875 478879 477883 469900 467905 465907 461907 459906 455904 451904 445909 439916 437920 437924 441930 443936 443941 437948 434951 436955 438958 440962 441968 440974 433989 431994 431001 432008 435011 445027 449035 453043 458063 462083 464108 465122 464136 463150 464157 463163 462178 458189 453199 451201 448202 446200 445196 444189 446178 446171 446167 443162 441160 435152 434144 434137 431133 422131 417124 410122 403117 394114 394112 397111 397105 401105 404103 406098 406092 403088 401087 397091 395096 393094 390086 387082 383081 379083 375083 374079 373076 375072 382070 384068 382065 383061 387059 390057 391054 390050 387042 378030 373023 370015 364012 359008 349998 345990 342979 339954 338946 334938 328934 324938 314948 302962 297967 291968 287967 285960 291946 300924 306909 325874 345846 352836 383777 385767 387758 393743 395736 396732 395725 394718 393709 393697 393688 395680 397672 400665 405657 410648 417639 428624 434616 440607 445601 453594 460590 466587 474587 479588 485591 490597 0.01 427243 428239 425234 422231 421225 424220 427218 430215 429209 427206 423202 416197 415193 416187 418181 420177 421174 419171 414170 410168 408166 407163 408160 409157 410151 408148 399146 391142 387141 386143 387153 387160 388164 389169 391172 396179 398183 397188 379186 372182 368180 363179 359181 359186 365192 375202 381209 388214 395218 398220 401223 398224 393223 386216 382217 379219 377225 377228 378232 382239 389244 398249 408251 413250 420249 427243 0.01 263788 261782 257781 254781 250783 245789 240797 236803 233810 230817 230823 232825 235826 238826 243822 249816 253811 258802 262795 263788 0.25 511662 506647 501633 495624 488616 481612 474611 467613 460617 451625 443634 437640 432648 428653 425658 420667 412682 410692 412699 414704 419710 423715 424722 427744 425753 423762 422774 424783 426785 430786 439779 453766 461760 467757 478754 485751 494745 500739 506729 510718 512708 513697 514687 513677 511662 0.25 401862 399852 396848 394848 389851 384857 382860 376873 367889 355900 348906 345912 345917 348929 349934 349943 350952 352966 356975 361987 365994 371996 376996 381994 386989 388983 390975 390968 389931 395900 395892 397885 399871 401862 0.50 479733 486729 492722 497715 501705 503694 503683 502669 497654 492645 484638 476638 469644 463649 452649 444648 436654 431661 426673 421684 421691 424694 430695 436691 442686 445684 447686 449690 450695 449701 449709 452719 453725 453731 454735 457737 461737 479733 0.50 357938 356953 358968 363979 366984 370986 374985 376981 377975 377969 376962 374948 375935 380916 384904 386897 388892 389886 390882 387878 384879 381884 379892 374901 370908 366913 362919 359925 357938 24HR QP VT 25/12Z 0.01 479834 476812 478796 485784 493772 498759 495742 482722 470712 454715 439723 423737 412752 405758 400765 390780 387786 381794 370807 371818 366826 364835 359844 355852 351858 342872 332883 325899 321906 316913 311919 307924 303926 297928 294929 291933 287940 283948 282955 282965 280972 277978 273986 271991 270995 272006 277010 284010 292013 299017 306019 310019 315016 321011 325012 328015 334023 342034 346040 349043 350047 350054 350062 353072 362086 366093 369101 370107 368111 366114 363115 360114 357110 351103 346096 343093 339090 335092 333097 333111 333116 334132 330141 329151 325153 321154 316158 314161 313167 314174 316183 318191 321198 326207 331214 342223 358233 375242 381244 387245 397245 412245 416244 419241 423230 426221 427213 427206 425195 422184 421176 421162 420153 418142 419131 423117 424106 424093 424067 419038 408025 398009 395005 389001 382998 372997 366994 360987 356981 353967 357959 361951 366936 369927 370916 369903 371893 377876 382859 383855 385854 388855 391856 396856 400857 403860 407870 411879 417884 424886 433884 443881 449881 452882 462884 465884 471882 475880 477878 479869 480862 480857 479844 479834 0.25 408799 408796 406793 403794 403794 403794 400796 398800 398800 397805 397805 398808 398812 398816 399820 401821 404818 404817 406815 406812 407808 407808 408803 408802 408799 0.25 375227 389222 399214 403202 400192 400177 404162 406153 404140 406133 408125 410119 411110 409095 410089 412082 413076 414071 413066 411062 407057 402055 395054 385053 378053 373054 366057 365063 368075 370080 374085 378087 383091 386096 387102 386109 383113 375121 367128 362132 357133 351133 347134 342138 340142 342147 346151 349155 352159 357167 355172 351171 348168 342165 337163 332161 325161 322165 322169 323175 325179 331189 336200 341209 348215 359222 365225 375227 0.25 355892 355888 350888 345896 335909 333915 330924 330933 329941 325949 320956 317962 316968 319973 325975 331967 337957 344943 348936 350928 353910 355892 0.50 396143 396139 393135 387132 382131 376133 374137 375141 378144 381148 383151 386153 390153 392151 395147 396143 0.50 386205 386197 382191 368184 360184 354185 351183 349179 347174 345171 341168 336166 328165 326167 325172 332183 337192 341200 352212 364218 367214 373213 382211 386205 1.00 337174 336171 333170 331173 332174 335175 337174 24HR QP VT 26/12Z 0.01 421780 418772 414767 411763 405760 393755 388752 382750 379750 376752 371756 365762 362769 359782 358797 354810 352822 349827 342831 333836 328839 324846 323853 324860 327863 333867 339869 340876 339884 335895 330907 325910 318910 310910 302912 295916 291920 286931 266949 259957 257961 255967 255972 256978 259987 262993 266999 270002 274003 276006 278014 281019 285022 292024 298025 306025 312023 317022 321024 322028 323033 320040 318046 319052 321056 323059 326067 326071 324075 321082 317085 311088 307093 305101 307114 311126 311136 313139 316140 319143 321148 317158 317162 316167 318172 321177 328187 335198 341209 348217 353222 358224 368227 373231 377233 380233 385231 391225 393221 396210 396203 398197 403178 406159 407140 408134 411126 417119 420111 419087 419067 417057 415048 412040 406034 404027 403019 402011 399004 395000 388998 383993 379988 378982 378976 378966 380957 381948 382932 385917 388905 393892 395887 397879 398871 399862 400853 402846 407832 412816 417801 421790 421780 0.25 386822 386815 385809 381805 376807 371812 369815 366824 363832 361840 357860 353879 347897 345904 341913 337919 330927 320938 314944 309951 306959 305963 306969 310977 317981 326982 330983 334981 339976 345969 349961 352953 357935 360926 362915 363905 365897 369877 375860 382842 385833 386822 386822 0.25 371154 383151 392143 398129 407117 410108 410096 410082 412070 407057 394052 379049 374049 370050 364054 361058 359067 361075 362080 361086 351085 335087 331091 328098 324102 320108 321114 324121 328127 331132 339143 344147 352150 365154 371154 0.25 384208 385206 385200 385195 383191 380188 377187 374186 371186 368185 367186 366189 367191 369194 370194 371198 372199 373202 374204 376206 377207 379209 382209 384208 0.25 346182 346176 346172 344168 342165 339165 333163 329162 327162 324165 324170 327173 329176 334180 337183 340184 343185 346182 0.25 302959 301956 300955 297955 294956 292957 292958 290961 290962 289965 289968 291969 293969 296967 297967 298965 300963 301962 302959 0.50 404076 404071 401069 395073 391075 387073 381068 377066 373065 370066 369072 371079 373084 377085 381083 389080 395084 399085 403078 404076 0.50 388123 388116 381112 377114 372118 368122 364123 359122 351113 346107 343100 339096 335099 333102 330108 330114 337125 341129 347132 354134 361137 367140 371141 375142 378141 381138 385133 388123 0.50 354928 354918 352914 348915 344920 341925 337932 335940 333947 332954 333959 334961 340959 345954 348947 351940 353932 354928 0.50 336170 335168 333167 331168 333170 334171 336170 1.00 342113 340110 337110 337112 337113 340114 342113 $$