FXUS04 KWBC 311833 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 232 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION VALID SEP 02/0000 UTC THRU SEP 03/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR SOUTHEAST... A FRONTAL BNDRY WL LEAD TO MDT/LOCALLY HVY RAINS ACRS THE CAROLINAS. USED THE GFS HERE BUT SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER TO THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS SEWD PROPAGATION SHOWN BY THE CORFIDI VECTORS. THE RRQ OF A JET STREAK WL AID UPWARD MOTION IN AN AREA OF PWS AOA 2 INCHES. LOCAL AMTS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE PSBL HERE...ESPECIALLY WHERE CELLS TRAIN. WEST... SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW THRU THE PD WL LEAD TO RAINS FOR THE TERRAIN OF THE PAC NW. KEPT CLOSE TO THE WETTER ETA AND CONTINUITY CONSIDERING THE FLOW PRESENT. NAME/NRN MEX/TX... MOISTURE POOLING INTO WRN MEXICO WL LEAD TO DIURNAL CONVECTION. IN NERN MEX...UPSLOPE FLOW WL LEAD TO CONVECTION AS WELL. PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE THE ACTIVITY WL MOVE EWD OUT OF NRN MEX AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DYING ARND SUNRISE. DAY 2... ...SRN MID ATL/SOUTHEAST... NEW MODEL RUNS ALL STARTING TO PUSH SLOW MOVING FRONT AND DRIER FURTHER SOUTH INTO NC THAN EARLIER FORECAST. WITH MOIST AIRMASS...NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND ONSHORE FLOW HAVE KEPT PRECIP ALONG THE NC COAST BUT TAPERED BACK AMOUNTS INLAND. KEPT PRECIP MORE INLAND IN SC BASED ON DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SINCE IT HAS SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS. ...CTRL GULF COAST/TN VLY... A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH DRAWS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS FOR DETAILS IN THIS AREA DUE TO SOME INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS NOTED IN THE ETA ALONG THE COAST...SEE PMDHMD FOR DETAILS. THE GFS ALSO GETS SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET AND CANADIAN...BUT THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO RAFL AMOUNTS. HAVE FAVORED THE WETTER GFS DUE TO MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE TX/LA BORDER NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY. ...NRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES... MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR FAST MOTION OF UPR TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. HAVE BLENDED THE MODELS IN THIS AREA BUT DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE GFS DUE TO ITS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE ETA APPEARS TO BE RUNNING TOO SLOW AND TOO DRY. SNOW POSSIBLE AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WRN MT LATE AS THICKNESS VALUES DROP. ROTH/BANN/PETERSEN GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 02/00Z 0.01 544191 539179 534170 528161 520150 515148 512145 502142 497140 492136 487129 484126 481125 478124 474124 471126 467128 462129 457130 454136 451142 448143 443144 441147 440150 441153 444158 444165 445174 443182 442186 443188 453192 459192 466195 476192 481194 481196 475202 470203 465204 459203 455206 453209 444211 435214 431216 430219 430223 438229 435233 431236 427237 422238 420240 420245 429248 437250 446249 452250 458250 467252 474257 483263 487269 490275 495287 502294 507298 0.01 446646 442645 438645 435645 429647 424651 419655 415660 413664 409669 407674 403679 401683 400688 400692 402695 406695 409694 414692 420689 425685 429680 436671 442661 444657 446650 446646 0.01 230991 232994 236998 242003 249008 255013 262017 268023 274028 281031 287039 291043 296046 302049 306052 313059 316062 318064 321065 324067 325071 324075 322082 313081 307081 304084 302087 299094 301101 303104 309111 314115 322114 340108 349105 358100 365092 370086 374081 376079 375076 373074 368074 363078 355083 350086 344086 341076 343065 345061 350061 358061 361058 366056 369054 375052 385052 395053 415057 425061 433064 445068 450068 451066 450058 447051 443048 444044 448043 450043 451039 451035 449031 447024 440016 427001 422991 421983 422975 425966 427961 429959 434954 436948 439942 442940 449931 457925 463922 469917 476912 479906 480898 481891 486877 488871 488867 487862 483854 481847 479843 469838 466838 462840 458843 454847 444853 440857 437861 431871 427881 415908 410920 408926 407932 406938 405945 403955 401963 399969 397978 394986 392990 387998 380004 373011 366015 357017 346017 341016 336014 321005 312000 306996 301992 289977 282969 279966 278960 277954 278949 280939 282931 285922 286917 287913 291912 293909 300901 308898 314894 329879 348866 352863 355860 361853 366842 368831 368825 368820 366817 363814 361809 361805 363794 365774 365763 364751 357735 352735 347734 341737 339741 336748 335755 332766 331778 330783 328788 325791 320795 312800 308802 303804 294802 281798 273796 263794 253797 247802 245807 244812 239822 258828 267831 275834 280843 285852 284857 282860 279867 270883 254915 243934 241938 240943 238955 236968 234974 230979 0.01 224066 229072 235077 243082 253086 261088 268089 272090 278097 288103 291104 293102 295096 295087 298077 300068 296061 288056 282054 277053 273053 269050 261045 254039 249033 246027 245022 242013 238009 232008 229010 0.25 536216 537209 537203 535195 532188 530179 529173 526170 521168 508157 500156 493154 485155 479155 477158 477160 479163 481170 484179 488185 496199 498201 496204 492206 482209 475212 469218 467225 464232 463235 463239 471244 482252 492263 496265 498263 499259 498253 501250 505251 508250 510244 510237 508230 507225 507220 508216 511213 517214 520218 528220 535219 536216 0.25 444887 442884 439885 435890 432895 432900 431906 432912 433916 435914 438908 440902 441896 443892 444887 0.25 360765 359756 356749 352747 348749 345752 341758 339769 335780 332790 328799 322809 318819 314819 309818 298815 290812 285810 281807 274804 264802 257803 253808 256814 258820 265824 283831 292836 298842 301848 301856 299868 298874 296879 291886 289890 288893 289898 295896 298894 306887 310879 314869 321858 325850 327845 331841 335839 340838 345839 348840 352838 354833 355828 352815 354801 357789 359777 360765 0.25 396020 393016 385020 380022 371025 366027 357030 352032 348033 346037 350039 355039 363038 370036 377034 383031 389027 394023 396020 0.25 314016 313013 311012 309013 309014 308017 309017 312018 314016 0.25 295011 297007 295002 291996 287992 282988 276987 271989 266994 262995 262999 264005 268011 273015 278017 287018 292014 295011 0.25 283075 275067 270064 265059 261055 255051 247045 242040 236038 233042 233051 230053 227053 225055 226059 234067 239071 245073 252073 261072 275076 281076 283075 0.50 529204 528197 526192 524185 522178 514171 511168 505166 499166 493164 488165 486170 488174 492178 498186 505188 508190 511193 514194 517195 520201 522204 524205 527205 529204 0.50 358766 357758 354754 352752 346756 344762 341772 337784 333795 329806 329811 331816 337817 342815 345812 348805 351795 356782 357770 358766 0.50 294827 292825 288823 285820 281819 276818 272817 269816 266819 268821 272823 275825 279826 283828 287830 291830 293830 294827 0.50 251063 250062 250060 249057 248054 247053 246051 245049 243048 242047 239048 239051 241054 242057 244060 245061 247063 248063 250063 251063 1.00 354764 353760 349762 346769 344773 341782 339787 338795 337800 342800 346794 349789 352781 353774 354767 354764 24HR QP VT 03/00Z 0.01 224076 237083 247089 252092 256092 261092 266090 275093 285093 291089 296082 298079 298074 294067 285056 280050 276044 272038 266035 257035 247036 242036 239030 230020 0.01 542197 539186 533175 526159 523153 520150 518149 512147 510145 504142 501138 495131 489122 486117 484113 487108 494100 494095 497086 500081 501076 505062 506058 506049 505044 503040 499037 498031 505026 507021 502018 498017 493017 487019 475033 469040 465043 460044 453039 448041 445044 438051 433059 433067 431072 427074 425076 425080 427088 425087 422090 421095 418099 415105 412111 411118 408128 409133 411136 414138 424142 427141 429143 429149 428156 432160 434163 434167 431176 426186 423199 424210 423218 423222 424224 436211 445197 453189 460182 466177 474174 480173 485176 488180 498195 500201 498204 492203 486202 481204 474207 467213 459216 456219 458223 461227 465229 468226 471225 471228 465233 456233 448238 451240 455241 464242 481249 488257 493267 499277 504280 508278 505267 509264 514262 521257 528248 0.01 500251 499246 497241 494235 492230 489228 483227 480226 480230 485232 491235 493241 495248 497251 500251 0.01 450889 445874 443866 440865 436866 430869 426875 421887 417900 415914 414922 415932 419939 423942 427941 429933 434923 437917 441911 446907 448901 450893 450889 0.01 369753 366742 360731 357730 353733 346737 340744 334752 326766 319779 314786 310790 304796 299802 294807 286805 279803 278796 276794 269791 264792 245801 243806 242815 241819 242822 243825 248823 254820 259818 264819 268821 272824 284834 289840 292845 290853 288859 287869 284875 280891 275907 274921 273931 273943 275957 280963 287965 301962 317954 324949 330944 335939 340932 346918 349909 353904 365890 376878 380875 382872 384864 383853 379845 373839 369838 365842 360843 358841 358837 360829 361825 361821 363783 366767 368760 369753 0.01 382057 381053 375052 369052 364052 358052 352054 352058 355060 358061 362065 364068 369069 372067 375064 380061 382057 0.01 338092 338086 338082 338080 338078 338072 335070 333072 330078 327078 330080 330082 327087 327089 330093 332096 335097 337095 338092 0.01 311065 311059 310055 307052 305049 300046 296046 293048 293053 295056 296061 299065 301068 304072 308072 309068 311065 0.01 276019 274007 274000 272992 270987 267982 261975 257971 252968 246970 242974 237981 237988 239993 245001 251011 257018 265024 272025 276022 276019 0.25 531209 533205 533201 532192 530179 528170 525166 520158 509151 506150 503151 495158 490162 495174 502182 511189 517196 522206 526211 529211 531209 0.25 471154 471147 468143 464140 461135 460132 457135 455139 453143 450146 447151 447155 449156 453155 456155 458157 464157 467156 471154 0.25 454114 455110 455105 455101 453097 450095 449093 447090 444091 442092 441093 438093 437096 437100 438104 439108 441112 441113 443115 446117 449117 452115 454114 0.25 454076 454072 453070 450069 447069 444072 441076 444080 444081 447083 450083 452080 453080 454076 0.25 361760 361754 360750 358747 355745 351745 345749 342752 336761 332768 329776 320793 316801 312807 303815 297823 297826 297833 301843 303849 304855 303864 287895 285905 288916 290919 295922 300920 307914 312908 323892 325890 331887 340884 348880 353875 356871 358863 357856 355853 348847 345843 345835 354798 356790 358780 361760 0.25 224062 226066 229071 237077 245081 254083 260078 263081 269082 274081 275078 275071 272065 268056 265053 261049 256048 250047 237048 232047 226046 0.50 528174 527174 525172 522171 520168 519165 518162 517162 515162 517164 518167 519169 521172 522175 523178 524180 527179 527177 528174 0.50 447109 447105 447104 446105 446109 447109 447109 0.50 358758 356753 352751 348753 341760 336768 329784 322799 315813 309820 307825 307829 307836 312843 314848 315854 314864 313871 311875 309879 307881 303881 300881 298885 296895 296902 298906 301906 304905 308899 312891 316884 319880 324878 332875 335872 341869 344868 346863 343857 337849 335842 335833 344817 348801 355783 357770 358758 0.50 263069 257063 253057 249054 245053 241054 241060 237060 234058 227054 226054 226060 230066 237071 245074 248072 250070 253069 263069 1.00 354765 352762 352760 349760 346763 344766 343770 341775 341778 343781 344784 345786 347787 348786 349786 351784 352781 352779 353776 353773 353772 354768 354766 354765 $$