000
FXUS04 KWBC 022151
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
450 PM EST MON FEB 02 2009


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 03/0000 UTC THRU FEB 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1...

UPDATED...MOST CHANGES FM THE PRELIM TO THE FINAL DAY1 QPF MADE
WERE TO CORRECT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA.  IN
ADDITION..INCREASED AMTS SLIGHTLY OVR THE ERN U.S. WITH LATEST RUN
OF THE ECMWF TRENDING HEAVIER WITH TOTALS.

GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLC/NORTHEAST...
12Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
BUT SUFFER DIFFS WITH QPF DETAILS.  ENERGETIC TROUGH REACHING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A STRING OF VORT ENERGY FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLC AREA.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT
PCPN FROM IN/OH TO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LESS
THAN .25 INCH AMTS EXPECTED.  THIS IMPULSE IS FEATURED ON THE
NAM/GFS AND ECMWF REACHING ACROSS VA TO NJ DURING TUES.  WITH
UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH THRU THE MID
ATLC...EXPECT SOME ENHANCED SNOW.  INDICATED AN AREA OF .25 INCH
AMTS FROM ERN PA AND NJ TO CT WHERE DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS MOST
FAVORABLE AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THIS VORT.  THIS FOLLOWS THE UKMET
QPF PATTERN MOST CLOSELY...WHICH IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE FARTHER
NORTH 00Z/ECMWF AND MORE SRN 12Z GFS SOLNS.  DECREASED QPF AMTS
ACROSS ERN NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY MAINE BASED ON ALL AVBL 12Z
GUIDANCE KEEPING HVY WRAPAROUND PCPN ASSOCD WITH DEVELOPING
CIRCULATION LARGELY OFFSHORE.

FL...
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLICING THRU SOUTH FL BY MIDNIGHT WITH BAND OF
ASSOCD CONVECTIVE RAIN EXITING SE FL AND THE KEYS.  MAJORITY OF
THE 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME .25 INCH PLUS AMTS IN THIS REGION
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE KEYS WHERE 1.75 INCH PW AXIS
ALIGNS AROUND THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD BEFORE QUICKLY DRYING
OUT BY 06Z.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

...CONCERNING THE AMPLIFYING ERN NOAM LONGWV TROF...

THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WAS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
02/00Z AND 02/06Z MODEL RUNS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE 02/00Z
ECMWF WHICH HAD A STRIPE OF MORE THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ON
DAY 2 ACROSS PARTS OF ME.  WE BACKED OFF AMOUNTS THERE IN
DEFERENCE TO A CONSENSUS OF OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY TO SEE THE
02/12Z ECMWF COME IN WITH A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST.  GIVEN RATHER POOR PERFORMANCE BY THE
02/12Z EC IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS THE BEST QPF IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/NAM...WHICH TENDS TO LOOK A LOT LIKE THE 02/12Z UKMET.  THIS
RESULTS IN GENERALLY LGT QPF FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH A SECOND AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THE
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES GETS DIRECTED INTO THE UPSLOPE
REGION OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND THE NORTH END OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND THE NORTH END OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS.  WE TENDED TO
PROVIDE SOME DIURNAL COMPONENT BASED ON THE LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT WE OPTED TO KEEP THE PCPN GOING REGARDLESS OF TIME OF
DAY IN AREAS WHERE THE UPPER SUPPORT OR OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS
MAXIMIZED.

...GREAT LAKES...

PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ERN TROUGH WILL
INDUCE LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS TO ALL THE LAKES ON D2...THEN GRADUALLY
WANING ON DAY 3.  THE GREATEST FETCH WILL BE DOWN THE N-S PATH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN...SO HIGHEST QPF HAS BEEN PLACED AT THE SOUTH END OF
THIS LAKE.  A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID-EQUIVALENT COULD FALL HERE.


...CA/OR...

CLOSED UPR LOW WILL BREAK FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM IN THE ERN PAC
AND MEANDER SE LATE IN DAY 3.  SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN...BUT THE GFS WAS USED AGAIN FOR TIMING WHICH BRINGS PRECIP
TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST IN THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 3...AND THEN
SPREADS NORTH INTO ORE AND EAST TO THE SIERRAS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE TENTH OF AN INCH TO QUARTER
OF AN INCH...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AT OR ABOVE A HALF INCH ALONG
THE WEST FACE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE.

HEDGE/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 469644 466633 465628 462625 457622 454623 447629 441634
      434641 429647 423656 414667 407677 399688 388700 377707
      361716 355721 352726 351732 348737 338746 332753 324761
      314768 305771 292771 282768 277767 271769 260774 245786
      236795 231802 228807 226813 226819 229823 232829 235832
      240832 246830 254826 262820 269817 275815 279816 282817
      286822 292825 297826 294831 290835 288839 287847 288853
      291856 296857 301855 307851 314849 326845 342839 343843
      343847 346853 351854 353858 356860 359860 364860 370861
      374864 380874 382880 386886 389891 392895 397900 402903
      407904 411903 413901 417908 418912 421915 424916 427915
      427911 425901 422896 421892 421887 427885 431885 437885
      441888 447891 451895 456915 459918 465919 471912 473906
      475898 478884 478875 478865 472851 469840 465831 461824
      458818 451807 444798 437788 433782 430775 429767 430760
      432754 435750 437741 439734 440730 439726 438721 441719
      446713 449708 455696 464673 469655 469644
 0.01 541202 540193 538186 534177 531171 526165 523162 518155
      514152 507147 503145 500144 497146 497150 508159 511165
      509170 503173 502177 503182 506187 511193 514199 516205
      520214 522221 524227 528233 530235
 0.01 517278 519274 520268 520263 514257 513252 512237 508235
      506233 504229 501224 499223 495224 494230 498241 498247
      499251 497250 491249 488251 490261 494272 496278 498283
      501283 507285 510284 515281 517278
 0.01 497050 497045 494041 485038 482037 477034 471029 465023
      458018 452014 447014 443011 435008 428008 428012 430015
      432017 432022 429027 429032 432039 438045 443047 447047
      455049 465049 479056 484058 490059 494057 497052 497050
 0.01 453101 453098 452097 450095 448097 447097 444099 441100
      441102 441104 441108 443113 446115 449114 452113 451109
      450107 448105 450103 453102 453101
 0.01 427840 427839 425836 423833 420833 417835 416836 415838
      412841 412842 411847 414849 418851 419851 421852 424852
      427850 428848 428843 427840
 0.25 429687 424685 415691 408698 407704 407714 404719 400721
      388724 380727 377732 376736 377744 376749 374753 372755
      369759 369765 371770 371773 370778 367780 366784 361787
      357787 349788 344793 343799 341808 336815 333821 336822
      341820 355809 361804 364798 367792 375786 382781 387774
      402763 407757 411751 413747 414742 415733 412726 413721
      423704 427697 429693 429687 429687
 0.25 357755 355753 352752 347757 345761 345765 344772 336777
      332783 332785 334789 336790 340788 344784 347776 351770
      353765 357758 357755
 0.25 271794 270791 266790 259794 252798 247801 243806 239813
      241815 244818 247818 253814 258809 263805 267801 270798
      270794 271794

24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.01 485608 483602 480595 476590 473589 470590 464595 460597
      456601 441617 431631 428636 424640 420648 414656 410664
      402677 396685 391687 387690 384693 379695 373691 366690
      361691 358695 350708 345714 339719 331724 326731 318745
      314757 313764 312768 313773 316779 322783 321787 323792
      328799 332802 337804 347801 353801 356801 359804 360810
      359814 353821 349828 348836 350844 356857 365857 370854
      380849 387848 392846 398840 409828 414828 417830 419831
      422830 426820 427815 427811 428807 428802 426794 424789
      420785 418779 417774 418764 420756 424748 432739 437735
      443732 447727 451719 460701 469684 475675 478668 481661
      484656 485651 487639 488633 487626 485608
 0.01 484881 485875 483870 479863 476860 470856 465854 464853
      462849 459840 457830 456821 455817 449813 445813 440811
      436813 435817 435821 437825 440830 446833 450839 453844
      456853 456857 455858 448857 442859 440859 437857 432856
      427856 420859 413858 406860 403863 401868 404873 408875
      420879 426879 432878 445874 456875 461879 466884 473890
      481886 484881
 0.01 437758 435756 432758 430760 427762 426765 426768 426769
      425774 426777 429780 430780 432778 432777 432774 433771
      434768 435766 437763 437762 437758
 0.01 393783 390776 388770 382761 378754 376749 374745 369748
      366758 364767 362775 361780 363786 365794 365797 368799
      376796 383791 389787 393783
 0.01 340772 337772 335774 334775 336775 339776 340772
 0.25 470628 468624 465623 459624 454632 451636 444650 436663
      430674 428678 429681 433685 433690 438685 440679 444675
      451668 454662 459655 464650 468644 470638 470628
 0.25 370720 365716 360717 353721 351725 349732 349737 347741
      343744 338747 335749 329748 326750 323755 322761 324765
      326766 330765 333762 335758 344748 351746 357741 363732
      368726 370720


24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 521876 519867 517860 512850 508843 505841 500838 497837
      488834 484833 482832 483828 482823 481815 478809 474805
      466804 462804 455805 447806 441808 439813 440817 446826
      450832 451838 457848 464854 472855 475857 477861 479865
      485875 493882 499887 503888 509889 514887 518883 520879
      521876
 0.01 450661 448656 445653 441656 438660 434667 430674 428683
      426690 424700 425709 431709 436708 440706 443698 447689
      450681 450674 450665 450661
 0.01 448746 445741 441742 430750 425752 421751 417756 416757
      417761 419765 418771 415778 411781 399789 397792 393794
      390792 387794 376807 373808 372814 370817 375819 376819
      376822 378822 381821 380818 381815 384813 388805 391805
      393807 397805 402799 409799 416810 421811 424804 426799
      430793 433787 435781 438768 441761 445757 448750 448746
 0.01 444228 445222 443217 440214 435210 432207 430202 432197
      434188 432183 429182 427183 420185 414185 412189 411192
      411201 412207 399197 388193 380186 377184 374180 372180
      366179 363182 360185 359190 357190 355187 351179 347169
      341164 336162 331163 324168 322171 322174 324178 326182
      326188 328195 332198 334203 334207 334220 337228 341233
      340236 335247 334252 337254 341256 346255 351254 355252
      364248 367247 373247 380252 385257 390259 394260 400259
      407256 412256 416254 420249 423246 431240 439234 444228
 0.01 384720 381713 375714 369718 363724 358728 354733 349737
      345742 339752 337757 336759 337762 341763 346762 353761
      360756 364751 369747 371743 377736 383727 384720
 0.01 371828 369825 366827 364829 362831 362832 365831 367830
      370829 371828
 0.25 411230 412223 409226 405229 402234 398236 395237 390236
      387234 387235 389241 391244 396245 400246 402248 406246
      408241 410234 411230
 0.25 391210 392205 387201 384198 381195 376192 373190 372190
      370194 372201 374204 377207 381211 383215 385216 389213
      391210
 0.25 363225 364221 366218 365214 364213 362211 359211 356210
      353209 351208 349210 348214 347217 346220 347224 347227
      347228 350231 352232 355230 356229 359227 362226 363225
 0.25 347200 347196 347195 346192 345189 342191 341191 340195
      341196 342199 343200 346201 347200
 0.50 386205 384203 383201 381199 378197 376195 375195 374197
      376199 378201 380203 380204 384205 386205

$$