AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 844 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... SE USA IN NW UPPER FLOW BETWEEN MID CONTINENT RIDGE AND LOW OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO S APPALACHIANS FROM THE NORTHWEST. GRADIENT STILL FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS AREA...BUT SHOULD RELAX WITH TIME. UPDATED WIND FROM RUC...WHICH SEEMD TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS BEST...YIELDING WINDS THAT ARE STILL BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SKY COVER LOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND REDUCED IN FOREACST TO NEAR ZERO OUTSIDE N NC MTS...AND TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO 18Z MAV GUIDANCE... EXCEPT N NC FOOTHILLS WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE RASIED TWO DEGREES. UPDATED DEW POINTS FROM ADJUSTED 18Z MAV...WHICH AGREEED REASONBLY WITH OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 256 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. 850 MB HIGH PRES BUILDING SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW THE PRES GRAD TO SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH SAT...BUT WITH SOME HINT OF A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER. THIS SHOULD BRING MINOR GUSTYNESS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AT TIMES...BUT BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGHOUT. OTHERWISE...DRY HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE WITH TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE THICKNESS TROUGH. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUNDAY EVENING AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. NAM AND GFS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MAJOR FEATURES. HOWEVER...I WILL FAVOR THE COMPACT AND WESTERN PLACEMENT OF THE SHRA ON THE NAM. SCT SHRA SHOULD PEAK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H5 S/W SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ONLY UPSLOPE SHRA TO LINGER DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER AND PTYPE SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTH FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE MOISTURE. SCT SHRA COULD REACH THE NC MTNS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT. A PROGRESSIVE H5 LOW WILL MOVE FROM TX THURS AM NE TO THE GREAT LAKES THURS NIGHT. H5 HIGH CENTER OF CUBA REMAINS INTO THE LATE WEEK AND IMPRESSIVE THICKNESSES MOVE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN THURS AND FRI. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS IN SOME QUESTION...LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE COULD SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE M70S THURS. UNCERTAINTY WILL LIMIT POPS THURS AND FRI IN THE CHC TO SCHC RANGE FOR RA. AVIATION... ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FROM KAVL TO KHKY...WITH A SCT FIELD STRETCHING TO NEAR KCLT AT TIMES. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIGS GENERALLY DISAPPEARING ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS 23Z TO 01Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRIEFLY GUSTY IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL...BUT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS AT TAF LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AT THE ONSET OF MIXING SAT...WITH AROUND 12 KT AT KAVL. FIRE WEATHER... VERY DRY DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW WILL CREATE AREAS OF AFTN MIN RH IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. SINCE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES...WILL SIMPLY REISSUE FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS FOR NC AND GA FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH THE USERS. A RED FLAG ALERT WILL ALSO BE ISSUED BY SC FOR LOW RH. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 934 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2006 .SHORT TERM UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT)... CLEAR/BRISK NIGHT AHEAD. FCST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT UPDATE SENT TO BUMP UP OVRNGT LOWS A FEW DEGS. EVE UPR AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL-MIXED BNDRY LAYER AND LTST RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS VIA BUFKIT SUGG LTL IF ANY DECOUPLING OVRNGT SO MIN TEMPS A BIT ABV GUIDANCE LOOK OK. ALSO BUMPED UP WINDS ALONG EASTERN SHORE AND ADJACENT CSTL WTRS A BIT PER LTST OBS AND AS COLD SURGE CONTS TO WORK SOUTH ALONG COAST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 314 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SCNDRY TROF MOVES S OF FA THIS EVE. ANTHR SHOT OF CAA FOLLOWS THRU SAT. COMBO OF LOW RH'S & LOW FUEL MSTR ALONG WITH THE BREEZY CNDTNS LEADS TO ANTHR DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CRITERIA WILL BE MEET ACROSS NRN CNTYS FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WILL CONT A SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER REST OF FA. OTW...CANADIAN RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVR RGN THRU SUN. HIGHS SAT M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN U40S-M50S. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NR 30 SE. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... MODELS AGREE IN THAT NXT S/W MOVES SE FROM KY/OHIO VLLY SUN NITE THEN ACROSS NC MON. DIFFERENCE IS THE MSTR FIELDS WHERE NAM IS RELATIVELY DRY AND GFS WETTER. FOLLOWING A GFS SOLN...PCPN OVRSPRDS FA BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z MON. EVENT XPCTD TO ME MAINLY A RAIN EVENT...BUT GIVEN THAT PCPN XPCTD TO BREAK OUT ARND 12Z MON...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A BRIEF MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN THRU 15Z ACROSS WRN & NRN CNTYS. GFS INDCTG THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORN TO REACH ERN SHORE AREAS...AND BY THAT TIME IT WILL BE ALL RAIN. STILL NOT A BIG EVENT WITH EXPCTD QPF ARND .10 N TO .20 S. AFTR THAT...PATTERN CHANGES YET AGAIN WITH ANTHR WRMUP XPCTD. TMPS SLOWLY WRM INTO 60S THU. WRM FRNT LIFTS N OF RGN WITH CHC SHWRS THU. THEN HIGH PRS BECOMES ANCHORED OFF E COAST FRI. TMPS 60S CSLT SCTNS TO 70S INLAND. AVIATION... VFR NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY CONCERN BEING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. MARINE... SCA OR NEAR SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS ENTIRE MARINE CWA. CONDITIONS DROP OFF ENOUGH BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT SCA CAN BE DROPPED FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER...BUT LESS THAN IDEAL FROM A BOATING STANDPOINT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MDZ021>025 FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SATURDAY. NC...NONE. VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR VAZ064-072>078-084>086-099-100 FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM SATURDAY. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>632-650-652 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ654-656-658 UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...CULLEN/FOSTER va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 930 AM PST FRI MAR 3 2006 .SHORT TERM...LOCAL DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY AND CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAYS ALSO SHOWING CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS PUSHING IN OFF THE COAST FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. RUC MODEL AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS IS NOW SHOWING THE COLD UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE WITH 500MB TEMP OF MINUS 30 DEG-C AND BELOW OVER THE BAY AREA. WILL EXPECT THIS COLD AIR TO PUSH FURTHER ONSHORE TODAY TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT. MODELS INDICATE THE BETTER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD AS LI/S DROP TO MINUS 2 OR 3 NEAR LOS BANOS AND MERCED. IN ADDITION...ETA MODEL CAPE VALUES RISE TO AROUND 400 J/KG WHICH DOES WARRANT A CONTINUED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT SIERRA FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE HAND...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WITH LEVELS RANGING FROM 2500 FEET IN THE FOOTHILLS NEAR YOSEMITE PARK...TO 3500 FEET IN THE TEHACHAPIS. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND KERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 400 PM TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND...PRECIP OVER MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY. AFTER SUNSET...WILL STILL EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS ALL ELEMENTS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE COMING DAY. && .AVIATION...A PACIFIC STORM WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL JUST AFTER 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS...THEREAFTER IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR DUE TO CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...FROM YOSEMITE PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE...THROUGH 4 PM. ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH 4 PM. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/ MOLINA ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1040 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2006 .DISCUSSION... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY NNW TO NW... BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WE SHOULD SEE A TURN MORE THE THE NORTH... THEN NNE TOWARDS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANSIVE BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS MINNESOTA... WISCONSIN... AND MICHIGAN. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE STAYING PUT... AND ARE PERHAPS CAUSED BY JUST A LITTLE BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STUCK UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION ENHANCED BY THE SNOWPACK IN THAT REGION. A FEW CU ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP DOWN-WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... AND SOME STRATOCU ALSO HAS BEEN DEVELOPING NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWA. ETA/RUC LAYER RH FIELDS SUGGEST THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE PARALLEL WITH THE LAKE MAY SUPPORT SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY... SO SEE NO NEED TO UPDATE THE ZFP AT THIS TIME... AS THE MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... VERY FEW CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING POPS/TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT TERM....TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO MATTOON LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE E/NE CWA AROUND CHAMPAIGN AND MATTOON...AS FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY BY NAM 925-850MB LAYER RH FIELDS...AND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING PRECIP EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION...AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR FOR SYSTEM TO OVERCOME INITIALLY. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO BRING 40 POPS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY 20 POPS FURTHER EAST. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE PROFILE WARMS ENOUGH ON SUNDAY TO SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP...SO HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT...DRY WEATHER ON TAP EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO MAKE A DRAMATIC SHIFT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W/SW AS THE WEEK GOES ON...RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. STILL QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WAVES TO AFFECT AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL FOLLOW THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED. WILL FOCUS ON THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES...AS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL ALSO TREND TEMPS UPWARD...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR AS THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ HARDIMAN/BARNES il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1229 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2006 .AVIATION... A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL AROUND. THIS AREA HAS BEEN SHRINKING AND SHOULD NOT LAST THAT MUCH LONGER AT BOTH SBN AND FWA. THEN FOR THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD SKIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 319 PM EST) SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CHALLENGES MAINLY IN AMOUNT AND TIMING OF CLEARING AS WELL AS TEMPS. NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUING TO ORIGINATE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LWR MI INTO MUCH OF INDIANA. GFS/NAM DID NOT PICK UP ON ANY OF THIS MSTR SO FAR. RUC40 AT LEAST HAD SOME IDEA OF WHAT WAS GOING ON SO WILL FOLLOW THIS IN TERMS OF DECREASE OF RH THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CLOUD COVER ALREADY ON THE DECREASE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HOWEVER AREA OF SC STILL DROPPING SOUTH AND SE FROM THE LAKE AND SHOULD MOVE BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING. WITH 850 MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WOULD TYPICALLY RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL ADVECTING IN AND SIGNS OF CLEARING TREND FROM SAT AS MENTIONED...HAVE SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS LOWER DEWPTS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN. WILL GO MID TEENS TO AROUND 20. SOME CONCERN WITH BENTON HARBOR AND LIGHT NORTH FLOW LATER TONIGHT...BUT WITH EXACT DURATION OF CLOUDS OVER THAT AREA WILL LOWER A DEGREE OR 2 BUT NOTHING DRASTIC AT THIS POINT AND LET EVE SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS. ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DRAWING EVER CLOSER...EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. CU RULE CONFIRMING THIS WITH POSITIVE NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL DROP CLOUD COVER DOWN TO END UP WITH AT LEAST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD MANAGE TO GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER BUT STILL GENERALLY HOLD AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. LONG TERM... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ACTIVE NRN PACIFIC WX PATTERN WILL SPELL EVENTUAL CHANGES FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. S/WV ENERGY IS FCST TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROF THIS WEEKEND...FLATTENING A NRN/CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE AS IT DOES. AS THE S/WV APCHES THE REGION...RETURN FLOW AND WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CAUSE PCPN TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE PLAINS...SPREADING EAST INTO THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. PCPN MAY START OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACRS THE WEST...BUT WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SOUNDINGS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE BELOW THE 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM...SO AM EXPECTING MAINLY SNOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS SEEN BY ITS EXCESSIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS...SO THE NAM APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. THE FEEDBACK IS LIKELY RESULTING IN THE VERY HIGH QPF VALUES OF THE GFS. WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE NAM...BUT WILL INCORPORATE SOME ISENTROPIC METHODS. AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH 3 INCHES BEING THE MAXIMUM OUTLIER AMOUNT. FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN S/WV WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BY THIS TIME...SO WILL EMPLOY SMALL POPS AND WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE PACIFIC...CARVING OUT A DEEP TROF IN THE PROCESS. WITH TROFFING IN THE WEST...UPR LVL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE ACRS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE BATTLE ZONE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR FRIDAY ATTM AS MID LVL RIDGING BEGINS TO ACCENTUATE ITSELF BY WEEKS END BEFORE ANOTHER S/WV APCHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...98 in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 545 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2006 .AVIATION... DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE WORKING QUICKLY ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH SKIES CLEARING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALLOWING FOR WHAT INVERSION IS IN PLACE TO CRASH. ALSO FLOW OFF LAKE MI APPEARS TO BE SUBSIDING AND ALSO SHIFTING MORE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP TAFS AS IS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KSBN THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS BUT EXPECT THE UPWARD TREND TO CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CHALLENGES MAINLY IN AMOUNT AND TIMING OF CLEARING AS WELL AS TEMPS. NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUING TO ORIGINATE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LWR MI INTO MUCH OF INDIANA. GFS/NAM DID NOT PICK UP ON ANY OF THIS MSTR SO FAR. RUC40 AT LEAST HAD SOME IDEA OF WHAT WAS GOING ON SO WILL FOLLOW THIS IN TERMS OF DECREASE OF RH THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CLOUD COVER ALREADY ON THE DECREASE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HOWEVER AREA OF SC STILL DROPPING SOUTH AND SE FROM THE LAKE AND SHOULD MOVE BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING. WITH 850 MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WOULD TYPICALLY RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL ADVECTING IN AND SIGNS OF CLEARING TREND FROM SAT AS MENTIONED...HAVE SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS LOWER DEWPTS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN. WILL GO MID TEENS TO AROUND 20. SOME CONCERN WITH BENTON HARBOR AND LIGHT NORTH FLOW LATER TONIGHT...BUT WITH EXACT DURATION OF CLOUDS OVER THAT AREA WILL LOWER A DEGREE OR 2 BUT NOTHING DRASTIC AT THIS POINT AND LET EVE SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS. ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DRAWING EVER CLOSER...EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. CU RULE CONFIRMING THIS WITH POSITIVE NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL DROP CLOUD COVER DOWN TO END UP WITH AT LEAST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD MANAGE TO GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER BUT STILL GENERALLY HOLD AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ACTIVE NRN PACIFIC WX PATTERN WILL SPELL EVENTUAL CHANGES FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. S/WV ENERGY IS FCST TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROF THIS WEEKEND...FLATTENING A NRN/CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE AS IT DOES. AS THE S/WV APCHES THE REGION...RETURN FLOW AND WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CAUSE PCPN TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE PLAINS...SPREADING EAST INTO THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. PCPN MAY START OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACRS THE WEST...BUT WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SOUNDINGS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE BELOW THE 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM...SO AM EXPECTING MAINLY SNOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS SEEN BY ITS EXCESSIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS...SO THE NAM APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. THE FEEDBACK IS LIKELY RESULTING IN THE VERY HIGH QPF VALUES OF THE GFS. WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE NAM...BUT WILL INCORPORATE SOME ISENTROPIC METHODS. AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH 3 INCHES BEING THE MAXIMUM OUTLIER AMOUNT. FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN S/WV WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BY THIS TIME...SO WILL EMPLOY SMALL POPS AND WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE PACIFIC...CARVING OUT A DEEP TROF IN THE PROCESS. WITH TROFFING IN THE WEST...UPR LVL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE ACRS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE BATTLE ZONE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR FRIDAY ATTM AS MID LVL RIDGING BEGINS TO ACCENTUATE ITSELF BY WEEKS END BEFORE ANOTHER S/WV APCHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FISHER LONG TERM....HICKMAN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 319 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2006 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CHALLENGES MAINLY IN AMOUNT AND TIMING OF CLEARING AS WELL AS TEMPS. NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUING TO ORIGINATE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND WORK ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LWR MI INTO MUCH OF INDIANA. GFS/NAM DID NOT PICK UP ON ANY OF THIS MSTR SO FAR. RUC40 AT LEAST HAD SOME IDEA OF WHAT WAS GOING ON SO WILL FOLLOW THIS IN TERMS OF DECREASE OF RH THIS EVENING. DIURNAL CLOUD COVER ALREADY ON THE DECREASE AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HOWEVER AREA OF SC STILL DROPPING SOUTH AND SE FROM THE LAKE AND SHOULD MOVE BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE EVENING. WITH 850 MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WOULD TYPICALLY RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL ADVECTING IN AND SIGNS OF CLEARING TREND FROM SAT AS MENTIONED...HAVE SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS LOWER DEWPTS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN. WILL GO MID TEENS TO AROUND 20. SOME CONCERN WITH BENTON HARBOR AND LIGHT NORTH FLOW LATER TONIGHT...BUT WITH EXACT DURATION OF CLOUDS OVER THAT AREA WILL LOWER A DEGREE OR 2 BUT NOTHING DRASTIC AT THIS POINT AND LET EVE SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS. ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DRAWING EVER CLOSER...EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. CU RULE CONFIRMING THIS WITH POSITIVE NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL DROP CLOUD COVER DOWN TO END UP WITH AT LEAST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD MANAGE TO GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER BUT STILL GENERALLY HOLD AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ACTIVE NRN PACIFIC WX PATTERN WILL SPELL EVENTUAL CHANGES FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. S/WV ENERGY IS FCST TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROF THIS WEEKEND...FLATTENING A NRN/CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE AS IT DOES. AS THE S/WV APCHES THE REGION...RETURN FLOW AND WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CAUSE PCPN TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE PLAINS...SPREADING EAST INTO THE FCST AREA SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. PCPN MAY START OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACRS THE WEST...BUT WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SOUNDINGS WILL QUICKLY SATURATE BELOW THE 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM...SO AM EXPECTING MAINLY SNOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS SEEN BY ITS EXCESSIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS...SO THE NAM APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. THE FEEDBACK IS LIKELY RESULTING IN THE VERY HIGH QPF VALUES OF THE GFS. WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE NAM...BUT WILL INCORPORATE SOME ISENTROPIC METHODS. AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH 3 INCHES BEING THE MAXIMUM OUTLIER AMOUNT. FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN S/WV WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BY THIS TIME...SO WILL EMPLOY SMALL POPS AND WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE PACIFIC...CARVING OUT A DEEP TROF IN THE PROCESS. WITH TROFFING IN THE WEST...UPR LVL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE ACRS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN THE BATTLE ZONE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR FRIDAY ATTM AS MID LVL RIDGING BEGINS TO ACCENTUATE ITSELF BY WEEKS END BEFORE ANOTHER S/WV APCHES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. && .AVIATION... WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUD COVER LONGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS BOUNCING AROUND 3000 FT RANGE SO RATHER THEN GO TEMPO GROUP FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HAVE OPTED TO JUST GO PREDOMINATE 3000 FT UNTIL EARLY EVE AT BOTH SITES WITH KFWA LIKELY TO CLEAR OFF A BIT SOONER AS FLOW WEAKENS THIS EVENING OFF THE LAKE BUT PERSISTS A BIT LONGER AT KSBN. ONCE WINDS SHIFT AROUND...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FISHER LONG TERM....HICKMAN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 401 AM CST SAT MAR 4 2006 .DISCUSSION... LGT PCPN ASSOC WITH THE NOSE OF THE UPR JET MOVG ACRS SRN TWO THIRDS OF CWA THIS MRNG. MOST OF IT IS NOT REACHING THE GND ATTM ESSENTIALLY MOISTENING THE COLUMN. OCNL LGT PCPN XPCD TDA WITH LTL QPF. TMPS ARE COMING UP AS THE CLDS THICKEN. THERE MAYBE A SML AREA OF VRY SPOTTY ZR N OF DSM TWDS FOD ERLY THIS MRNG AS TMPS SEEM RELUCTANCE TO RISE DUE TO THE DRIER ELY FEED INTO THAT AREA. THE REAL PCPN EVENT WL BE TNGT INTO SUNDAY MRNG AS THE UPR SYS GETS KICKED NEWRD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS ANOTHER S/W IN THE FAST SUBTROPICAL FLOW THAT THE MDLS ARE KEYING ON AS WELL IN CONJUCTION WITH THE NRN SYS. THIS GFS40 LOOKING TO ME LIKES ITS GETTING MORE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH ITS PCPN MAX IN NWRN IA VS THE MORE SRN QPF PLACEMENT OF THE NAM. THE SREF IS A COMPROMISE WITH UP TO 0.6IN OVER CNTRL IA BFR ENDING SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT THE 0.1IN ZR PLACEMENT ACRS THE NERN QTR OF THE FA ALG WITH ANY SNOW. THIS COULD PROVE TO BE A MESS IF IT PRECIPS MORE THAN WHAT WE ARE THINKING IN THE FAR N. THE RUC SEEMS TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB...BTR THAN THE OTHER TWO MDLS...WITH ITS SFC TMP FCST...AND IT HOLDS AT OR JUST ABV FRZG TNGT IN THE N. SO WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK BY. AFT THIS SYS...THE PATTERN GETS MORE ENERGETIC NXT WEEK. NXT SYS ARRIVES TUE FOLLOWED BY SVRL MORE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALL OF THESE SYS ARE LOOKING MORE CONVECTIVE WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR DECENT RAINFALL...HOPEFULLY. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ MYERS ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 933 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2006 .DISCUSSION... CIRRUS SHIELD LOOMING OVER N TX/CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING...AND WILL ROUND THE BROAD SCALE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE ALSO STAYING UP A TAD OVER E TX/NW LA ATTM...WITH THE LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO...S ALONG THE MID MS VALLEY INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL TX. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP A TAD OVERNIGHT...THUS KEEPING THE AIR MIXED...SO HAVE BUMPED UP MINS A TAD TONIGHT. IF CIRRUS SHIELD THICKENS AS WELL...AS WHAT THE 00Z NAM/RUC ARE INDICATING...THIS WILL ALSO HOLD TEMPS UP A TAD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. OTHERWISE..DRY AIR NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP MAY HELP ERODE THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS...SO WILL LEAVE IN MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTING TO FILTER SW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS INTO S AR AND N LA...SO VERY FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS HERE. BUT OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE ALREADY OUT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 42 69 49 70 / 0 0 10 10 MLU 37 65 45 71 / 0 0 10 10 DEQ 35 67 43 68 / 0 0 20 20 TXK 40 66 49 69 / 0 0 10 20 ELD 36 65 42 70 / 0 0 10 20 TYR 47 69 53 69 / 0 10 10 20 GGG 44 69 50 69 / 0 10 10 20 LFK 45 72 50 73 / 0 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 15 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 335 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND...RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY AND A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SHORTWAVE...TOGETHER WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE/VORT LOBE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND OUR PCPN CHANCES DURING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN HALF WAY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE BIG PICTURE...BUT SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES TRANSLATE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THEIR QPF OUTPUT FOR THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS QPF MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UP...THE NAM IT LIKELY UNDERDONE WITH ITS AMOUNTS OF A 0.10-0.15 IN THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN US WILL LOSE SOME PUNCH AS IT PLOWS THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE...THE NAM WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY FAR MORE THAN THE GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET. IN ADDITION...THE NAM FAILS TO TAKE THE PV FILAMENT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST EAST AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY...WHICH PREVENTS IT FROM DEVELOPING AS STRONG OF A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE DIFFERENCES RESULT IN THE NAM HAVING ONLY A NARROW WINDOW OF DEEP LAYER SATURATION OVER THE CWFA SUNDAY EVENING...QUICKLY DRYING THINGS OUT ABOVE 10K FEET BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS CRITICAL...SINCE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE BEST OMEGA WILL BE AT AND ABOVE 600MB WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY STEEPER. WITH THE ETA UNSATURATED IN THIS LAYER...IT PRODUCES VERY LITTLE QPF AFTER 03Z...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DECENT QPF SINCE IT KEEPS DEEP LAYER SATURATION IN PLACE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES BASED ON A SUBJECTIVE COMPARISON WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SOMEWHAT OBJECTIVE COMPARISON WITH THE LATEST RUC. THE NAMX IS STRONGER THAN THE NAM WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE...BUT ALSO DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH OF A SOUTHERN PV ANOMALY...SO IT ALSO DRIES THINGS OUT MORE QUICKLY...AND PRODUCES VERY LITTLE QPF. THE LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-ARW...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY DOWNSCALING THE NAM AT 48-HOURS...ACTUALLY DOES MANAGE TO PRODUCE OVER .25 INCHES OF QPF...SUGGESTING THAT THE GFS/S IDEA OF HIGHER QPF LIKELY HAS MERIT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE DECENT LAPSE RATES ABOVE 600MB. THE NOGAPS...CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE ALSO MORE AMBITIOUS THAN THE NAM...ALTHOUGH NONE PRODUCE THE .50+ OF QPF THAT THE GFS INDICATES. FORCING...EVEN ON THE GFS...IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...RESULTING FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS SEEN ON THE 290K SURFACE...300MB DIVERGENCE PRIMARILY OWING TO DIFFLUENT HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS...AND 500-300MB DPVA. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LONG...RUNNING FROM AROUND 18-21Z ON SUNDAY THROUGH AROUND 15Z ON MONDAY...SO ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE SOUTH AND WEST OF MARQUETTE AND ESCANABA. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS SOME NEGATIVE EPV...OWING TO SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY...IN THE 500-400MB LAYER SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH CORRESPONDS WITH WHERE IT HAS ITS BEST OMEGA. IF THIS INSTABILITY COMES TO FRUITION...ITS HALF INCH QPF AMOUNTS COULD PAN OUT. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON...SINCE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO COULD PUSH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ABOVE THEIR 6 INCH WARNING CRITERIA. THE MAIN THING WHICH COULD WORK AGAINST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LIQUID/SNOW RATIOS. WITH THE BEST OMEGA LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE AROUND AND PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE 500MB...MICROPHYSICS WILL BE WORKING AGAINST THINGS SINCE TEMPERATURES IN THAT LAYER WILL BE NEAR -25C...WHICH WILL PROMOTE GROWTH OF NEEDLES AND SMALLER ICE CRYSTALS RATHER THAN THE RATIO-FRIENDLY DENDRITES WHICH ARE BEST PRODUCED AROUND -15C. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL TAPER THINGS OFF TO CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN JUST LINGER A FEW FLURRIES INTO MONDAY EVENING. THINGS SHOULD TRY TO CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD...SO WENT A BIT BELOW MOS LOW TEMPERATURES. RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY...SINCE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO DETERMINE IF CHANGES ARE NEEDED ON TIMING AND PCPN-TYPE ISSUES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ TRH mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 344 AM CST SAT MAR 4 2006 .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...INDUCING PRESSURE ADVECTIVE LIFTING PROCESSES. RUC POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BAND OF FORCING WELL ON THE 300K SURFACE...WHEN OVERLAID ON THE REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WERE THE MAIN FOCUSES IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)... THE INITIAL CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE PROGRESSION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS KANSAS. OVERLAYING THE PRESSURE ANALYSIS ALONG THE 300K POTENTIAL SURFACE WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. I WILL FOLLOW THE RUC'S SUGGESTIONS ON FORCING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BRING A BAND OF FORCING ACROSS SE KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH 18Z. GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT CURRENTLY EXIST WITHIN A THICK LAYER OF THE LOWER TROP...EVAPORATION WILL TAKE A TOLL ON ANY RAIN THAT TRIES TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...BASED ON RAIN MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS OF KANSAS RIGHT NOW (WHICH HAD A SIMILAR MOISTURE LEVELS PER 00Z TOP RAOB)...LIGHT RAIN WILL BE HIGHLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SE KANSAS AND THE OZARKS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER...I WILL INCREASE POPS...ESPECIALLY FROM SPRINGFIELD AND TO THE NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF LIFTING PROCESSES WILL COMBINE TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO JUSTIFY HIGHER POPS FOR AREAS OF SE KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MATERIALIZE FROM THIS SET UP...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAYS PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL OCCUR FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)... MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A STORMY PATTERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIODS. A PATTERN THAT HAS NOT OCCURRED IN A LONG TIME...WHICH WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. LONG WAVE TROUGHING OUT WEST AND RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL PROMOTE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ULTIMATELY OPENING UP THE GULF FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOISTURE FEED INTO THE OZARKS. THE INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG RETURN OF MOISTURE INVADES THE EASTERN PLAINS AND OZARKS. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...AMPLIFYING THE EASTERN RIDGE KEEPING THE AREA WITHIN A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FIRING OFF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF). TIMING OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LIKELY IN SEVERAL PERIODS WITHIN THE TUESDAY - FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ALLEVIATED TO A CERTAIN DEGREE. HOWEVER...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK. AREA INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE MONITORING LATER FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CRAMER && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY DAYLIGHT. CURRENTLY MONITORING A FOCUSED AREA OF STRONG MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH OVER CENTRAL KS. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FEW IF ANY REPORTS OF RAIN AT THE SFC THUS FAR...AND GIVEN DRY LAYERS FROM AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS THAT ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD WAVE WILL ONLY ACT TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAIN LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. GAGAN && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1201 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2006 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST WAS PROVIDING TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A VIGOROUS SYSTEM PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS FLOW WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO SATURDAY. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AT AND ABOVE 850 MB LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS AND A CORRESPONDING LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOP. INITIAL FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT WHERE SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT. SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE WEAK AND MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED ABOVE 800 MB. THEREFORE EXPECT ANY RAINFALL SATURDAY TO BE LIGHT AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS MODEL SOLUTION. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER SURFACE LOW. IF THIS TRANSPIRES...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE. PROGGED INSTABILITY IS WEAK BUT AMPLE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STRONG STORMS. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS THE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OUT WEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTRAL U.S. IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION COULD BRING THE ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE OZARKS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WHILE A STRONGER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION DURING MID WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. FOSTER && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW VEER TO SOUTHERLY BY DAYLIGHT. CURRENTLY MONITORING A FOCUSED AREA OF STRONG MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH OVER CENTRAL KS. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FEW IF ANY REPORTS OF RAIN AT THE SFC THUS FAR...AND GIVEN DRY LAYERS FROM AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS THAT ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAD WAVE WILL ONLY ACT TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAIN LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. GAGAN && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 251 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2006 .SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WHILE A STRONG UPPER VORTEX IS SEEN DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. CLOSER TO THE GROUND...SURFACE DATA SHOWS DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING FROM MN INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS GRADUALLY ALLOWING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHWEST TX. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM RUSSELL TO NEAR HOLDREGE THAT THE RUC 0 HOUR SHOWS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF 850MB WARM ADVECTION. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE A TAD MORE INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THAN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE KICKED NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LEE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE REGION INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS TO ALLOW FOR THE BAND OF 850MB WARM ADVECTION TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED INITIALLY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIG PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THE LOWER 3 KM. AS THE AREA HEADS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A DRYLINE SLIDES EAST INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. ANTICIPATE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS WARMER AND MORE MOISTURE LADEN AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SHOWERS WILL END BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THIS SOLAR HEATING ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BUT STAYING MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST GUESS IS THAT THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE CWA AND THE FACT THAT LITTLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. SIG SVR AND BRN NUMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH SEVERE CONVECTION AND SPC AGREES AS WELL ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HAIL EVENT COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. .LONG TERM...12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF TIME MARKED BY A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF GREATER AMPLIFICATION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE BY MIDWEEK. THE FIRST OF THE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE PLAINS SWEEPS BY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEMS DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE PLAINS. TIMING AND LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL...HOWEVER THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR OPENING UP THE REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD. WHILE THE VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING...STRENGTH AND POSITIONS OF THE FEATURES...THIS IS A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE TROF WEST...THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS LIQUID PRECIPITATION...SNOW NOT LIKELY. THAT BEING SAID...EARLY IN THE SPRING / LATE IN THE WINTER HAIL FORMATION OCCURS MUCH EASIER AND WILL BE MONITORED. STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL AND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED ENOUGH TO GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ AWJ/LEWIS ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 957 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP. THE ONLY PROBLEM I SEE TONIGHT IS...IF WINDS DO NOT DROP OFF...OUR LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY TOO LOW. WILL MONITOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE CHANGE. AT THE PRESENT TIME WILL LET CURRENT FORECAST STAND. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 249 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... FEW PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. DRYNESS INCREASES AS THE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH AND MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID AND UPPER 50S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. EXPECT INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE NO MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL VORT...HENCE ONLY A SMALL POP FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. MONDAY MORNINGS LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...EXPECTING VALUES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS WE APPROACH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ARE ALL FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THURSDAY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. GFS KEEPS THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY...AND THE DGEX IS WEAK WITH ANY SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON DAY 6. WITH FORECAST LIFT MEAGER THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ONLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT COUPLED WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. ANY QPF EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW...AND IN FACT...THE DGEX HAS ZERO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. BY FRIDAY...THE CANADIAN IS FARTHEST EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND IGNORED FOR NOW IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF WHICH TRACK THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUILD SURFACE RIDGING BACK WEST INTO THE GULF...WITH THE EXPECTED RESULT BEING DRY CONDITIONS. OPERATIONAL MEX MOS LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN ADVERTISED BY THAT GUIDANCE OUT TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEME FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...IF THE THICKNESSES VERIFY OUT THAT FAR...WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THURSDAY AND APPROACHING 80 ON FRIDAY. OPTED NOT TO GO THAT WARM BUT DID FORECAST MAXES ABOVE MEX MOS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AVIATION... LATEST RUC 850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN...SUGGESTIVE OF CONTINUED SLOW EROSION OF STRATOCU DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND A WATER VAPOR IMAGE THAT IS AWFULLY DRY AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 10KT THIS EVENING WHILE BACKING...INCREASING AGAIN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE 10KT SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20-25KT ABOVE 2000FT LATE TONIGHT ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS...NOT ENOUGH FOR LLWS BUT SOMETHING TO NOTE. FIRE WEATHER... WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND DUE TO VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH SATURDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RHJ nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 249 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... FEW PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. DRYNESS INCREASES AS THE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTH AND MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID AND UPPER 50S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. EXPECT INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE NO MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL VORT...HENCE ONLY A SMALL POP FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. MONDAY MORNINGS LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...EXPECTING VALUES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS WE APPROACH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF ARE ALL FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THURSDAY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. GFS KEEPS THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY...AND THE DGEX IS WEAK WITH ANY SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON DAY 6. WITH FORECAST LIFT MEAGER THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ONLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT COUPLED WITH WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT. ANY QPF EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW...AND IN FACT...THE DGEX HAS ZERO QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. BY FRIDAY...THE CANADIAN IS FARTHEST EAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND IGNORED FOR NOW IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS...DGEX...AND ECMWF WHICH TRACK THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUILD SURFACE RIDGING BACK WEST INTO THE GULF...WITH THE EXPECTED RESULT BEING DRY CONDITIONS. OPERATIONAL MEX MOS LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN ADVERTISED BY THAT GUIDANCE OUT TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEME FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...IF THE THICKNESSES VERIFY OUT THAT FAR...WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THURSDAY AND APPROACHING 80 ON FRIDAY. OPTED NOT TO GO THAT WARM BUT DID FORECAST MAXES ABOVE MEX MOS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION... LATEST RUC 850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN...SUGGESTIVE OF CONTINUED SLOW EROSION OF STRATOCU DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND A WATER VAPOR IMAGE THAT IS AWFULLY DRY AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 10KT THIS EVENING WHILE BACKING...INCREASING AGAIN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE 10KT SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20-25KT ABOVE 2000FT LATE TONIGHT ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS...NOT ENOUGH FOR LLWS BUT SOMETHING TO NOTE. && .FIRE WEATHER... WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND DUE TO VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH SATURDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MLM LONG TERM...DJF AVIATION...JO FIRE WEATHER... nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 100 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2006 .AVIATION(18Z-18Z)... COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME GRADUAL BACKING OF THE FLOW. AMDAR/ACARS SOUNDINGS AT TOL CLE AND CAK AROUND MIDDAY SHOW A SHARP INVERSION AROUND 900 TO 850 MB. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM CLE AND CAK WEST INTO NW OH ATTM. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKES HURON AND ERIE CONTINUES. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAINLY FROM MFD TO CAK AND TOWARD THE LAKESHORE JUST SOUTH OF CLE. AROUND SUNSET SOME THE CUMULIFORM CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SO EXPECT SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER NW OHIO. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)... LATEST OBS AND VIS SAT SHOWING BEST SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA AT THIS TIME WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREA FROM CAK-BJJ. MADE SOME CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXPANDING AREA OF POSSIBLE FLURRIES A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH 925MB FLOW COMING FROM NORTH RATHER THAN NW. RUC THIS MORNING PICKING UP WELL ON THE DRY AIR ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. DESPITE N-NW FLOW OVER THE LAKE...DEWPOINTS IN SINGLE NUMBERS TO TEENS ADVECTING OVER THE LAKE WILL INHIBIT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...BROUGHT AREAS DOWN TO CHC POPS WITH ONLY LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. DID NOT WANT TO RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES HOWEVER FROM CLE AND POINTS W AND S TOWARDS MFD. && .SHORT TERM(TODAY)...WITH THE WIND SWITCHING AWAY FROM LAKE HURON THE LAKE EFFECT HAS DECREASED TO FLURRIES FOR A SHORT TIME AND AS THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO N AND NW THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM(TODAY-SATURDAY)... FLOW BECAME NNE AND THAT PUSHED THE LAKE HURON BAND WEST...HOWEVER...WITH TIME THE BAND WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AND THEN NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BANDS AROUND EVENTUALLY GETTING A BAND SET UP OVER NW PA...TRIED TO WORD MORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE POSSIBLE. WITH THE BANDS MOVING AND THE ISOBARS SOMEWHAT ANTICYCLONIC TRIED TO KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 INCHES OR LESS. ATTM NOT EXPECTING MUCH LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE 850 AND LAKE TEMP DIFFERENCE ONLY 10C...SOME FLURRIES MAY OCCUR THIS AM OVER NW OHIO IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE STATE OF MICHIGAN AS PER SOME FLURRIES ON KDTX RADAR. OVER IN NE OH AND NW PA THE LAKE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND 13C AND A VORT LOBE WILL BE IN THE AREA. TONIGHT WITH THE 850 MB WARMING THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT. SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SOME CLDS NW PA IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE. WENT DRY BECAUSE FOR NW PA SATURDAY BECAUSE OF LOW LAKE AND 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE. GUID TEMPS OK CWA...WENT A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES AND SOME SNOW COVER. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)... TEMPERATURES MAY START WARMING UP BY THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING. WATCHING THE TIMING OF THE PCPN FOR SUNDAY. ATTM STARTED THE THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON GFS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROUGH OVR THE EAST FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA BELOW NORMAL THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FCST. BEHIND THE LOW...HIGH PRES RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE N BUT THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN LAKES. GFS DEPICTS A DEEP LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES BY THU EVENING...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS STRONG OF A SOLN. NONETHELESS...ALL OF THE MODELS DO SHOW HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION BY THU. SO AT LEAST RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT WARM UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WL GO WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MON AND TUE THEN NORMAL TEMPS WED AND THU. WL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE PICTURE ON THU WITH THE GFS AND EVEN THE ECWMF SHOWING THE WARM FRONT MOVING N INTO THE AREA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...ABE SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...MRD/KIELTYKA AVIATION...REL oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 1129 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2006 .SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)... LATEST OBS AND VIS SAT SHOWING BEST SUNSHINE THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA AT THIS TIME WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREA FROM CAK-BJJ. MADE SOME CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXPANDING AREA OF POSSIBLE FLURRIES A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH 925MB FLOW COMING FROM NORTH RATHER THAN NW. RUC THIS MORNING PICKING UP WELL ON THE DRY AIR ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. DESPITE N-NW FLOW OVER THE LAKE...DEWPOINTS IN SINGLE NUMBERS TO TEENS ADVECTING OVER THE LAKE WILL INHIBIT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...BROUGHT AREAS DOWN TO CHC POPS WITH ONLY LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. DID NOT WANT TO RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES HOWEVER FROM CLE AND POINTS W AND S TOWARDS MFD. && .SHORT TERM(TODAY)...WITH THE WIND SWITCHING AWAY FROM LAKE HURON THE LAKE EFFECT HAS DECREASED TO FLURRIES FOR A SHORT TIME AND AS THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO N AND NW THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN. && .AVIATION(12Z-12Z)... NNW FLOW OFF OF LAKES HURON AND ERIE HAVE LED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS THEY WERE EARLIER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE DAY...REDIRECTING SNOW BANDS INTO THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR POP-UP MVFR SNOW SHOWERS/CIGS TO DEVELOP PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE FROM CLEVELAND EASTWARD. SHOULD BE VERY HIT-OR-MISS...WENT WITH TEMPOS AND VCSH...ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DO PASS OVER A SITE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. ONCE SUN SETS...ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE AS RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AT YNG AND ERI AFTER 00Z...HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM(TODAY-SATURDAY)... FLOW BECAME NNE AND THAT PUSHED THE LAKE HURON BAND WEST...HOWEVER...WITH TIME THE BAND WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AND THEN NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BANDS AROUND EVENTUALLY GETTING A BAND SET UP OVER NW PA...TRIED TO WORD MORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE POSSIBLE. WITH THE BANDS MOVING AND THE ISOBARS SOMEWHAT ANTICYCLONIC TRIED TO KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 INCHES OR LESS. ATTM NOT EXPECTING MUCH LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE 850 AND LAKE TEMP DIFFERENCE ONLY 10C...SOME FLURRIES MAY OCCUR THIS AM OVER NW OHIO IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE STATE OF MICHIGAN AS PER SOME FLURRIES ON KDTX RADAR. OVER IN NE OH AND NW PA THE LAKE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND 13C AND A VORT LOBE WILL BE IN THE AREA. TONIGHT WITH THE 850 MB WARMING THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT. SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SOME CLDS NW PA IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE. WENT DRY BECAUSE FOR NW PA SATURDAY BECAUSE OF LOW LAKE AND 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE. GUID TEMPS OK CWA...WENT A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES AND SOME SNOW COVER. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)... TEMPERATURES MAY START WARMING UP BY THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING. WATCHING THE TIMING OF THE PCPN FOR SUNDAY. ATTM STARTED THE THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON GFS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROUGH OVR THE EAST FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA BELOW NORMAL THRU TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FCST. BEHIND THE LOW...HIGH PRES RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE N BUT THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN LAKES. GFS DEPICTS A DEEP LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES BY THU EVENING...BUT OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS STRONG OF A SOLN. NONETHELESS...ALL OF THE MODELS DO SHOW HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION BY THU. SO AT LEAST RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT WARM UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WL GO WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MON AND TUE THEN NORMAL TEMPS WED AND THU. WL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE PICTURE ON THU WITH THE GFS AND EVEN THE ECWMF SHOWING THE WARM FRONT MOVING N INTO THE AREA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...ABE SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...MRD/KIELTYKA AVIATION...LEINS oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 900 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2006 .UPDATE... STILL APPEARS THAT THROUGH A COMBINATION OF WEAK WAA AND MINOR MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MORE WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF AREA. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE POPS ALONE THIS EVENING. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS FOR TONIGHT PERIOD. FURTHER OUT WILL INTRO SOME LOW POPS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY AND SPITTING OUT MORE PRECIP ACROSS AREA AHEAD OF FRONT... WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST BE WORTH MENTIONING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 30 ------------------------------------------------------- 322 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECASTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STILL HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR COMBINED WITH FULL SUN TO DROP HUMIDITY BELOW 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS TODAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM...SUSTAINING HIGH FIRE DANGER INTO THE EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE RETURN OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SCATTERED RAIN LATER TONIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH HAD RECOVERED NICELY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN TEXAS SOUNDINGS. SATELLITE SHOWED A BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. THIS FEATURE WILL START TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ALREADY EVIDENCED BY ENHANCED RADAR ECHOES NEAR LUBBOCK. COULD SEE TWO WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...FIRST AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS RELEASED THROUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND SECOND WHEN THE DEEP MID LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE TROF. BOTH 18Z RUC AND ETA HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. ALSO LIKE THE GFS PRECIP FIELD FOR SATURDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44...WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT AND MORE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD COME TOGETHER. THEREFORE...WENT WELL ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH TOMORROW. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH. IT SHOULD FEEL CHILLY TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS...BUT EXPECT MILD SPRING LIKE WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH A STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S. A BUSY PRECIP FORECAST CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS THERE. FEEL MODELS ARE WRONG IN HOLDING ONTO DEEP MOISTURE SUNDAY...GIVEN STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. MORE LIKELY TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SHUT DOWN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL FAVORS A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS STILL IN DOUBT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 59 51 70 / 30 50 20 10 HOBART OK 44 61 50 70 / 40 60 10 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 43 63 52 76 / 30 50 10 10 GAGE OK 43 62 42 68 / 50 50 20 0 PONCA CITY OK 40 57 49 67 / 30 50 30 20 DURANT OK 41 61 52 71 / 10 30 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ BURKE ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 322 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECASTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STILL HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR COMBINED WITH FULL SUN TO DROP HUMIDITY BELOW 20 PERCENT MOST AREAS TODAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A STORM SYSTEM...SUSTAINING HIGH FIRE DANGER INTO THE EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE RETURN OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SCATTERED RAIN LATER TONIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH HAD RECOVERED NICELY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN TEXAS SOUNDINGS. SATELLITE SHOWED A BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. THIS FEATURE WILL START TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ALREADY EVIDENCED BY ENHANCED RADAR ECHOES NEAR LUBBOCK. COULD SEE TWO WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...FIRST AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS RELEASED THROUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND SECOND WHEN THE DEEP MID LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE TROF. BOTH 18Z RUC AND ETA HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. ALSO LIKE THE GFS PRECIP FIELD FOR SATURDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44...WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT AND MORE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD COME TOGETHER. THEREFORE...WENT WELL ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH TOMORROW. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A HALF INCH. IT SHOULD FEEL CHILLY TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS...BUT EXPECT MILD SPRING LIKE WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH A STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S. A BUSY PRECIP FORECAST CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL HOLD ONTO POPS THERE. FEEL MODELS ARE WRONG IN HOLDING ONTO DEEP MOISTURE SUNDAY...GIVEN STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. MORE LIKELY TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SHUT DOWN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL FAVORS A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS STILL IN DOUBT...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 59 51 70 / 30 50 20 10 HOBART OK 44 61 50 70 / 40 60 10 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 43 63 52 76 / 30 50 10 10 GAGE OK 43 62 42 68 / 50 50 20 0 PONCA CITY OK 40 57 49 67 / 30 50 30 20 DURANT OK 41 61 52 71 / 10 30 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ BURKE ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 215 AM MST SAT MAR 4 2006 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH STRONG AND COMPACT UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH IDAHO. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. NAM/GFS SIMILAR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TROF MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +10C TO +12C ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 700MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS +2C THIS MORNING BEFORE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 850-700MB MOVE INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 06Z NAM/RUC INDICATE MEAN WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 30 KNOTS...WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER AS HIGH 50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE...MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 30S/40S. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS MORNING BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW IN IDAHO RIDING THE RIDGE THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...VERY LITTLE THREAT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IN THE AFTERNOON...SO LEFT IN SOME ISOLATED POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. NAM/GFS AGREE THAT MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER MILD DAY. WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. GFS BRINGS SHORTWAVE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXTENDED...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN CONUS MIDWEEK AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION AND RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH A COOL DOWN IN TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING SPECIFICS IN REGARDS TO TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF THESE DISTURBANCES...SO WILL CONTINUE GENERAL BROADBRUSHING OF POPS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE FRI/SAT TIME PERIOD...BUT IT IS WAY TOO SOON TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE EXCEPTION...AGAIN...WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TWEB ROUTE 260 NEAR KBIS...WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS SURF LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. && .UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 848 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2006 .UPDATE... NORTHERLY FETCH BRINGING LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS TO FAR NW EARLY THIS AM. NAM SHOWING PERSISTENT LOW LVL MOISTURE THROUGH 21Z. AS DAY PROGRESSES BOUNDRY LAYER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND PUSH CLOUD COVER FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SKIES SHOULD BE MO SUNNY INLAND AS CU SHIELD OVER FAR SE EXITS AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE EVE WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST TODAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL START TO BRING HIGH CLD SHIELD INTO SW THIRD OF CWA TNT. && .AVIATION... THE MVFR CEILING AT FWA WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD AND THEN WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF THIS TAF. A DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS HAVE GENERATED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL MOVE INTO SBN SHORTLY AND COULD LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE RUC MODEL DID NOT REALLY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT MVFR CLOUD LAYER...BUT THE NAM12 DID HAVE A BETTER HANDLE. THE NAM12 AT 925MB IS SHOWING THESE CLOUDS TO BE AROUND MAINLY THIS MORNING. THEN THE WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHUTTING OFF THE LONGER MORE FAVORABLE FETCH FOR THESE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. IT JUST WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THE SHORTER NORTHWEST FETCH OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUDS OR NOT...TO POSSIBLY CONTINUE OVER SBN. WINDS AT BOTH SBN AND FWA TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH...VARYING FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEN TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING IN...THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY GIVING OUR CWA A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY DAY TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. IN THIS COOL OR COLD AIR MASS....DEPENDS ON HOW YOU WANT TO LOOK AT IT...TEMPERATURES WITH THE SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 40. THEN LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA VERSUS THE EASTERN PART....DUE TO THOSE CLOUDS THAT ARE PROGGED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. LESS RADIATION TO OCCUR IN THE WEST THAN IN THE EAST. THE WIND TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN SHOULD BECOME CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CWA. BASICALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FOCUS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. 140KT UL JET BEGINNING TO ROUND 140W CUTOFF WITH LEAD SYSTEM KICKING OUT OVER IDAHO/NEVADA. THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO MORE CONSISTENT GFS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WITH NAM STRONGER BUT STILL A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TRACK THROUGH OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE LIFT ENHANCED WITH 7H 12HR HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 80-100M. I295 GFS WITH STRONG BUT BRIEF LIFT AND 3-4 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE. GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCREASED AND EXPANDED POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AT ONSET AND CONTINUED WITH RASN MIX. HOWEVER NAM SOLUTION FURTHER SOUTH BRINGS MORE COLDER AIR IN AND STRONG LIFT/DYNAMIC COOLING AT ONSET COULD BRING TOP/DOWN PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW EVENT AND ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS/TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED. HAVE DROPPED MAX T A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY/WARMEST SOUTHWEST GIVEN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. LITTLE CHANGES IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS. BY FRIDAY SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS CARVE DEEP TROF ACROSS WESTERN STATES WITH SOUTHEAST/EAST COAST RIDGING PLACING CWA IN DEEP LATITUDINAL FLOW. GEM/GFS POINT TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH DY7 TEMPS ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. CONCERN BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AS TROF MOVES OUT INTO PLAINS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WAMSLEY SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LOTHAMER LONG TERM....MURPHY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 641 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2006 .AVIATION... THE MVFR CEILING AT FWA WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD AND THEN WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF THIS TAF. A DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS HAVE GENERATED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL MOVE INTO SBN SHORTLY AND COULD LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE RUC MODEL DID NOT REALLY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT MVFR CLOUD LAYER...BUT THE NAM12 DID HAVE A BETTER HANDLE. THE NAM12 AT 925MB IS SHOWING THESE CLOUDS TO BE AROUND MAINLY THIS MORNING. THEN THE WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SHUTTING OFF THE LONGER MORE FAVORABLE FETCH FOR THESE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. IT JUST WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THE SHORTER NORTHWEST FETCH OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY CLOUDS OR NOT...TO POSSIBLY CONTINUE OVER SBN. WINDS AT BOTH SBN AND FWA TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH...VARYING FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEN TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING IN...THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 355 AM EST) SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY GIVING OUR CWA A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY DAY TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. IN THIS COOL OR COLD AIR MASS....DEPENDS ON HOW YOU WANT TO LOOK AT IT...TEMPERATURES WITH THE SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 40. THEN LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA VERSUS THE EASTERN PART....DUE TO THOSE CLOUDS THAT ARE PROGGED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. LESS RADIATION TO OCCUR IN THE WEST THAN IN THE EAST. THE WIND TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN SHOULD BECOME CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CWA. BASICALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FOCUS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. 140KT UL JET BEGINNING TO ROUND 140W CUTOFF WITH LEAD SYSTEM KICKING OUT OVER IDAHO/NEVADA. THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING. NAM HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO MORE CONSISTENT GFS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WITH NAM STRONGER BUT STILL A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TRACK THROUGH OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE LIFT ENHANCED WITH 7H 12HR HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 80-100M. I295 GFS WITH STRONG BUT BRIEF LIFT AND 3-4 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE. GFS/NAM HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCREASED AND EXPANDED POPS A BIT FURTHER WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STILL CONCERN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AT ONSET AND CONTINUED WITH RASN MIX. HOWEVER NAM SOLUTION FURTHER SOUTH BRINGS MORE COLDER AIR IN AND STRONG LIFT/DYNAMIC COOLING AT ONSET COULD BRING TOP/DOWN PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW EVENT AND ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS/TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED. HAVE DROPPED MAX T A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY/WARMEST SOUTHWEST GIVEN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. LITTLE CHANGES IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS. BY FRIDAY SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS CARVE DEEP TROF ACROSS WESTERN STATES WITH SOUTHEAST/EAST COAST RIDGING PLACING CWA IN DEEP LATITUDINAL FLOW. GEM/GFS POINT TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH DY7 TEMPS ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. CONCERN BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AS TROF MOVES OUT INTO PLAINS SATURDAY/SUNDAY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...98 in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 647 AM CST SAT MAR 4 2006 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY -SN/-RA MIX OVER THE WEST TOWARD CENTRAL THIS AM AS THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS SATURATED VERY QUICKLY AND NEARLY ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING NOW AT O CELSIUS. EXPECT WARMING TO CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN. THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISHING...BUT POTENT THETAE ADVECTION OVER US THROUGH 18Z STILL SPELLS CHANCE FOR SOME WEST. REST OF FORECAST LEFT UNCHANGED. /REV .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LGT PCPN ASSOC WITH THE NOSE OF THE UPR JET MOVG ACRS SRN TWO THIRDS OF CWA THIS MRNG. MOST OF IT IS NOT REACHING THE GND ATTM ESSENTIALLY MOISTENING THE COLUMN. OCNL LGT PCPN XPCD TDA WITH LTL QPF. TMPS ARE COMING UP AS THE CLDS THICKEN. THERE MAYBE A SML AREA OF VRY SPOTTY ZR N OF DSM TWDS FOD ERLY THIS MRNG AS TMPS SEEM RELUCTANCE TO RISE DUE TO THE DRIER ELY FEED INTO THAT AREA. THE REAL PCPN EVENT WL BE TNGT INTO SUNDAY MRNG AS THE UPR SYS GETS KICKED NEWRD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS ANOTHER S/W IN THE FAST SUBTROPICAL FLOW THAT THE MDLS ARE KEYING ON AS WELL IN CONJUCTION WITH THE NRN SYS. THIS GFS40 LOOKING TO ME LIKES ITS GETTING MORE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH ITS PCPN MAX IN NWRN IA VS THE MORE SRN QPF PLACEMENT OF THE NAM. THE SREF IS A COMPROMISE WITH UP TO 0.6IN OVER CNTRL IA BFR ENDING SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT THE 0.1IN ZR PLACEMENT ACRS THE NERN QTR OF THE FA ALG WITH ANY SNOW. THIS COULD PROVE TO BE A MESS IF IT PRECIPS MORE THAN WHAT WE ARE THINKING IN THE FAR N. THE RUC SEEMS TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB...BTR THAN THE OTHER TWO MDLS...WITH ITS SFC TMP FCST...AND IT HOLDS AT OR JUST ABV FRZG TNGT IN THE N. SO WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEAK BY. AFT THIS SYS...THE PATTERN GETS MORE ENERGETIC NXT WEEK. NXT SYS ARRIVES TUE FOLLOWED BY SVRL MORE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALL OF THESE SYS ARE LOOKING MORE CONVECTIVE WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR DECENT RAINFALL...HOPEFULLY. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ MYERS/REV ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 800 AM CST SAT MAR 4 2006 .UPDATE... AREA OF RAINFALL MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL IS FIGHTING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...HOWEVER...WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET COULD OCCUR BRIEFLY IN THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION. I DON'T THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT. HAVE AMENDED GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THIS. CALLS TO AWOS INDICATE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT WARSAW...LEBANON...VERSAILLES...BUT FREEZING PRECIP A RISK FARTHER EAST...AT LEAST BRIEFLY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 DEGREES. DSA && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 344 AM... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...INDUCING PRESSURE ADVECTIVE LIFTING PROCESSES. RUC POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BAND OF FORCING WELL ON THE 300K SURFACE...WHEN OVERLAID ON THE REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WERE THE MAIN FOCUSES IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)... THE INITIAL CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE PROGRESSION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS KANSAS. OVERLAYING THE PRESSURE ANALYSIS ALONG THE 300K POTENTIAL SURFACE WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. I WILL FOLLOW THE RUC'S SUGGESTIONS ON FORCING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BRING A BAND OF FORCING ACROSS SE KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH 18Z. GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT CURRENTLY EXIST WITHIN A THICK LAYER OF THE LOWER TROP...EVAPORATION WILL TAKE A TOLL ON ANY RAIN THAT TRIES TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...BASED ON RAIN MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS OF KANSAS RIGHT NOW (WHICH HAD A SIMILAR MOISTURE LEVELS PER 00Z TOP RAOB)...LIGHT RAIN WILL BE HIGHLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SE KANSAS AND THE OZARKS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER...I WILL INCREASE POPS...ESPECIALLY FROM SPRINGFIELD AND TO THE NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF LIFTING PROCESSES WILL COMBINE TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO JUSTIFY HIGHER POPS FOR AREAS OF SE KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MATERIALIZE FROM THIS SET UP...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAYS PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL OCCUR FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)... MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A STORMY PATTERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIODS. A PATTERN THAT HAS NOT OCCURRED IN A LONG TIME...WHICH WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. LONG WAVE TROUGHING OUT WEST AND RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL PROMOTE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ULTIMATELY OPENING UP THE GULF FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOISTURE FEED INTO THE OZARKS. THE INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG RETURN OF MOISTURE INVADES THE EASTERN PLAINS AND OZARKS. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...AMPLIFYING THE EASTERN RIDGE KEEPING THE AREA WITHIN A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FIRING OFF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF). TIMING OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LIKELY IN SEVERAL PERIODS WITHIN THE TUESDAY - FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ALLEVIATED TO A CERTAIN DEGREE. HOWEVER...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK. AREA INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE MONITORING LATER FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CRAMER && .AVIATION... UPDATED FOR THE 1200 GMT KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A WEAK COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL NORTH OF THE FORECAST SITES. WEST-SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE RAINFALL COMPLEX IS BEING FED BY A LOW LEVEL JET...WITH REDEVELOPMENT...AND THE MOST ABUNDANT LIGHTNING...OCCURRING OVER EASTERN KS AND NORTHEAST OK. DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN ON THE KSGF RADAR...THE BEST WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MUSTER IS SPRINKLES AT KSGF/KJLN SO FAR WITH CEILINGS AT ABOUT 8000 FT AGL. PRELIMINARY SOUNDING DATA INDICATES VERY DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK. WITH BETTER MECHANISMS FOR RAINFALL TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST-NORTH...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP WITH SHOWERS WITH NO SERIOUS IMPACT ON VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH KS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WITH FAIRLY STABLE LOWER LEVELS AND A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE WINDS FUNNELED UP THROUGH TERRAIN (WHITE RIVER VLY) TONIGHT...SO HAVE INCLUDED FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS AT KSGF STARTING THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE TAF VALID TIME. DSA && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 950 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WITH RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. WEAK TO NEUTRAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS (PW <.15") REMAINING IN PLACE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVED 12Z LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE RELATED TO FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MIXING DOWN OF LOWER DEWPOINT AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODELS INDICATING A DEEP DRY ADIABATIC FORMING UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LAYER. RUC SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 10F. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AFTN RH FROM 10 TO 15% RATHER THAN 20 TO 25 %. WILL UPDATE GRIDS AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TO INDICATE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND RH...WHICH WOULD BE A WORST CASE SCENARIO. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 306 AM EST SAT MAR 4 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... AN ELONGATED AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...SETTING UP A PRESSURE PATTERN ALLOWING NORTHERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED ADVECTION OF A COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE STATE. THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO ERODE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA) RIDES AROUND DEEP H5 RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST AND SUBSEQUENTLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AS THE CANADIAN HIGH WEAKENS AND CAA CEASES. AS FAR AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONCERNED...THE 00Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...THEY QUICKLY DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH THE GFS CLOSING OFF AN H5 LOW OVER NC/VA BY 06Z TUE AND THE NAM KEEPING A WEAKER...OPEN WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED PRIMARILY BETWEEN 12Z MON AND 00Z TUE AS CLIPPER-TYPE SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... H5 RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST BEGINS TO SHIFT OVER THE EAST COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. AS THE H5 PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THE GFS DEPICTS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO SAY AT THIS POINT. AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN MIDWEST AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS UNLIMITED AND VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED. -RFG && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOCKLEAR nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 225 PM CST SAT MAR 4 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DID IN FACT MAKE IT INTO SE MISSOURI...WITH -RA REPORTED AT KPOF. THE SHOWERS EXTENDED BACK TO THE NW INTO WEST CNTRL MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL VORT MOVG ACROSS MISSOURI...AND RESULTANT 300/305K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE GFS AND THE RUC CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE THIS AREA OF MOISTURE SE ACROSS MAINLY SE MISSOURI...WITH SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY AS WELL. AFTER 06Z...THE GFS SQUASHES THE MOISTURE...WITH THE FOCUS TURNING TO AREAS FURTHER WEST...AS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. SO AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL NOT HAVE POPS IN AT THIS TIME...BUT EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY. SHOWALTER VALUES MAY NOT BE BEST INDICATOR FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY POTENTIAL WITH THIS WAVE. GFS SHOWS 0 TO -2 LI/S WHEN LIFTING FROM ABOVE 800MB...AND 0-6KM MU CAPES 200-400 J/KG. THIS COUPLED WITH DAY 2 GENERAL THUNDER COVERING MOST OF THE AREA...MEANS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE WAVE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO OUR EAST...WITH RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BE ACROSS MO INTO ERN OK AND WRN AR. THUS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE POP FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER WEST SECTION. GENERALLY USED A MIX OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...AS THEY LINE UP WELL WITH OUR EXISTING NUMBERS. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE PERIOD OF WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE TROF OVER THE WEST CONUS AND RIDGE OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ENERGIZED SW MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO EJECT NE FROM THE WRN U.S. TROF. EACH ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ENCOUNTER ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORECAST WINDS...COMBINED WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS...SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...AND THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY WHAT SPC IS SEEING IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST DATA...AND IS EXPLAINED IN MORE DETAIL IN THEIR DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK. THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTMENTS IN MODEL TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND THEIR EFFECT ON WHAT HAPPENS DOWN BELOW. BUT...THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE MID TO LATE WEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SUPPORTIVE SIGNALS PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. IT IS A PATTERN AND FORECAST WORTH MONITORING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ CN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 351 PM EST SAT MAR 4 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE SNOW EVENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE LONG TERM LATE NEXT WEEK. CURRENT WEATHER...20Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND UPPER AIR RUC ANALYSES SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SE MANITOBA SOUTHWARD TO HOUSTON...A STRONG SHRTWV/CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER SHRTWV TO NOTE IS OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. UPPER MICHIGAN REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...PROMOTING ANTICYCLOGENESIS. AS A RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035MB EXTENDS FROM NW ONTARIO ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH (19Z TAMDAR SOUNDING SHOWED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 5C OR GREATER ABOVE THE INVERSION AT 900MB)...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HAS EFFECTIVELY CLEARED MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. MUCH DIFFERENT SITUATION OCCURRING ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONG SHRTWV DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LEE TROUGHING WHICH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WITH PRESSURES HERE AROUND 1010 MB...THE TIGHT GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AS OBSERVED FROM PROFILERS AND SURFACE WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO BRINGING UP WARMER AIR WITH 12Z RAOBS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS OF 0C OR GREATER FROM NEAR MINNEAPOLIS TO BISMARCK AND SOUTHWARD. TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS BY 12Z...PUSHED BY THE UPPER LOW WHICH MOVES INTO SE SASKATCHEWAN. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN SITUATED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN BECAUSE OF STAYING TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE IN THE NIGHT FROM THE PLAINS...BUT UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST MIN TEMPS WAS TO LOWER THEM IN THE EAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES EXIST ALL NIGHT. DID CONSIDER PLACING SOME FOG IN FOR COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN AS TEMPERATURES THERE GOT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TODAY...BUT WITH SUCH A LARGE DEWPOINT SPREAD LIMITING SNOWMELT...THINK ANY FOG WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED. SUNDAY...12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NE NORTH DAKOTA WHILE THE SHRTWV OVER ARIZONA HEADS NE TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z MON. EXPECTING A BAND OF SNOW OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES TO MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING AS FAR E AS SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY BY EVENING. DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT...AM VERY CONCERNED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE E TOO QUICKLY WHICH WOULD LIMIT A LOT OF THE U.P. FROM HAVING SNOW. THE 18Z NAM INDICATES THIS POSSIBILITY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE LIKELY POP AREA IN THE EAST...BUT DID INSERT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE FAR WEST WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICAL AND THERMODYNAMICAL FORCING OCCURS. IN FACT...NAM/GFS/UKMET QPF FIELDS ALL SHOW AROUND 0.10 INCHES OF QPF FOR IWD. GIVEN THAT THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS ABOVE THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER...WENT WITH A SNOW TO WATER RATIO CLOSER TO 10 TO 1. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND...RESULTING IN BUILDING RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS. THESE HEIGHT RISES WILL CAUSE THE UPPER LOW AND SHRTWV TO HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. HOW ALL OF THESE FEATURES INTERACT WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BAND OF SNOW TRACKS. 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET HAVE THE TRACK A BIT FARTHER EAST...CROSSING CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. HAVE SHIFTED THE QPF AND SNOW TOWARDS THIS DIRECTION...BUT THE LATEST 18Z NAM HAS SHIFTED BACKED WESTWARD. EITHER SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT SO IN THE END...DECIDED TO BROADEN THE QPF FIELD AND LET LATER SHIFTS FOCUS. THE ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THE WISCONSIN BORDER COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PICKING OF SNOW AS THEY ARE CLOSEST TO THE DYNAMICAL FORCING...WHEREAS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS THE LEAST CHANCES AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO DRY AIR AND FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE DYNAMICS. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. CONCERN DOES EXIST THAT THE SNOW WOULD TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON... PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. DUE TO UPSLOPING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO HAVE INSERTED THIS INTO THE GRIDS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...CAUSING THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD HELP IN TURNING SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS TO SET UP. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE WEST HALF INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOOST BACK UP QUICKLY ON TUESDAY THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY APPROACH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT READINGS SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE 30S AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO -4C. MAV COOP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN A FEW 40S...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPS STILL COOL...WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT MUCH WARMING FOR THE MOMENT. EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...CHANGE OF PATTERN ADVERTISED BY MANY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS CONTINUES. ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN...EVEN WITH THE DETAILS...SO MAJORITY OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE 00Z ECMWF. 06Z GFS IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH MANY OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. 12Z RUNS SHOW MORE FLIP FLOPPING WITH THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN WHEREAS THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z RUN. THEREFORE STAYING THE COURSE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS THE BEST ACTION AT THIS POINT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD BY A SHRTWV MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH IT. SHOULD NOTE THAT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER AS THE SHRTWV MOVES NE INTO NW ONTARIO INSTEAD OF CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONG SHRTWV WILL BE DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST...WITH A CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF ARIZONA AT 12Z WED. A MORE INTENSE PACIFIC STORM IS PROGGED UPSTREAM OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE PACIFIC STORM DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NW...IT WILL CAUSE THE ARIZONA LOW TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. BOTH THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF TRACK BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY AS THE PACIFIC STORM DIGS STRONGLY INTO ARIZONA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW\S WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOME RAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON THU (850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED AROUND 2C). HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES. WHAT IS VERY INTERESTING IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS 850MB DEWPOINTS AT 00Z FRI OF +7C AT MENOMINEE ALONG WITH A 60-65KT SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB ACROSS ILLINOIS. A LITTLE BREAK IN ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY...BUT BECAUSE OF TIMING THIS FAR OUT...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA IS THEN PROGGED TO LIFT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY... REDEVELOPING ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. BASICALLY IT LOOKS A LIKE A REPEAT OF THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY SYSTEM BUT SOMEWHAT STRONGER...SO CONTINUE A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO SATURDAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES AND HOW STRONG THE SYSTEMS CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES...EVEN UPPER MICHIGAN COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING SEVERE AS THE EXPERIMENTAL DAY 4-8 OUTLOOKS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SHOW. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...FOR ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN FOR THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH SINCE 1955...ONLY 20 SEVERE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THUNDER IS NEEDED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR EITHER OR BOTH SYSTEMS...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL TIMING BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE EASIER TO ASSESS. WITH ALL THE RAIN CHANCES AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY ALONG WITH WARM NIGHTS. THESE FACTORS ARE LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SNOWMELT FLOODING AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED AS DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE RESOLVED WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 320 PM CST SAT MAR 4 2006 .DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR..EXCEPT FOR A FEW ECHOES SOUTH OF BIS. THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE HEADING ENE FROM NW WY CIRCULATION. 18Z RUC SHOWING BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL MN AFTER 03Z..A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREV FORECAST. HAD ALREADY CUT BACK EARLIER ON POPS IN EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE..TREND FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP STILL SEEMS IN ORDER OVER WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. MODELS STILL HOLDING ON TO IDEA OF 850 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM SETTING UP IN A NW SE LINE OVER CENTRAL PART OF CWA. BETTER ISENTROPIC OMEGA ON 295 SURFACE SETS UP LATER TONIGHT OVER N IA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN...AND THEN CONTINUING IN WESTERN WI DURING SUNDAY. FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER WI AND EAST CENTRAL MN WILL HELP TO TREND PRECIP MORE OVER TO SNOW IN THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPS DROP TO TONIGHT...SOUNDING PROFILES OVER WESTERN AREAS SHOWING RAIN SO WILL KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL OUT UNTIL AFTER 03Z. STILL 4 G/KG SHOWING UP ON 295 SURFACE..SO SEEMS LIKE PLENTY OF MOISTURE. MODEL QPF SUGGESTS UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT..DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF BEGINNING OF PRECIP AND HOW FAST TEMPS DROP THIS EVENING. MOST NEED FOR ADVSY WOULD BE OVER EASTERN AREAS THAT HAVE FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE..WILL BE ENOUGH TIME TO ASSESS POSSIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT FARTHER EAST. ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR REST OF WEEK...WITH STRONG UPPER JET PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. RESULTING STRONG DIV FORECAST OVER S HALF OF MN TUESDAY AFTERNOON JUST NORTH OF JET. LOOK LIKE MORE MIXED PRECIP. LONGER TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW EVENTUAL PATTERN CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST DEEP SOUTHWEST STREAM CUTOFF LOW. USED TIMING OF 12Z ECMWF FOR FIRST FRONT MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED/THU TIME FRAME. MAY SEE BREAK IN ACTIVITY LATER WED AND INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR FRI AND SAT. 12Z SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN OVERALL DEVELOPMENT BUT HANDLES SYSTEM ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER LATE IN THE WEEK. FLOW PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ JPR/DWE mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1045 AM CST SAT MAR 4 2006 .UPDATE... ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS HAS AIDED IN THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. MORNING MIXTURE OF SLEET ACROSS THE OZARKS HAD ENDED AS TEMPERATURES AND SATURATING OF LOW LEVELS HAVE INCREASED. CURRENT TRENDS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SATURATED. ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS...CURRENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MORE THAN LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ALSO DECREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. JLT && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 344 AM... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS...INDUCING PRESSURE ADVECTIVE LIFTING PROCESSES. RUC POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS BAND OF FORCING WELL ON THE 300K SURFACE...WHEN OVERLAID ON THE REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WERE THE MAIN FOCUSES IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)... THE INITIAL CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE PROGRESSION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS KANSAS. OVERLAYING THE PRESSURE ANALYSIS ALONG THE 300K POTENTIAL SURFACE WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. I WILL FOLLOW THE RUC'S SUGGESTIONS ON FORCING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BRING A BAND OF FORCING ACROSS SE KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH 18Z. GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT CURRENTLY EXIST WITHIN A THICK LAYER OF THE LOWER TROP...EVAPORATION WILL TAKE A TOLL ON ANY RAIN THAT TRIES TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...BASED ON RAIN MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS OF KANSAS RIGHT NOW (WHICH HAD A SIMILAR MOISTURE LEVELS PER 00Z TOP RAOB)...LIGHT RAIN WILL BE HIGHLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SE KANSAS AND THE OZARKS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...HOWEVER...I WILL INCREASE POPS...ESPECIALLY FROM SPRINGFIELD AND TO THE NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF LIFTING PROCESSES WILL COMBINE TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TO JUSTIFY HIGHER POPS FOR AREAS OF SE KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MATERIALIZE FROM THIS SET UP...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAYS PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL OCCUR FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)... MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A STORMY PATTERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIODS. A PATTERN THAT HAS NOT OCCURRED IN A LONG TIME...WHICH WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. LONG WAVE TROUGHING OUT WEST AND RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL PROMOTE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ULTIMATELY OPENING UP THE GULF FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOISTURE FEED INTO THE OZARKS. THE INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG RETURN OF MOISTURE INVADES THE EASTERN PLAINS AND OZARKS. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...AMPLIFYING THE EASTERN RIDGE KEEPING THE AREA WITHIN A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FIRING OFF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES ON THURSDAY (ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF). TIMING OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LIKELY IN SEVERAL PERIODS WITHIN THE TUESDAY - FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ALLEVIATED TO A CERTAIN DEGREE. HOWEVER...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK. AREA INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE MONITORING LATER FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CRAMER && .AVIATION... FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS BOTH TERMINAL FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO LOW LEVELS ALREADY MOIST...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE 2000/2500' RANGE BEFORE 18Z SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE DEPENDING UPON RAINFALL INTENSITY AND IF LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR HIGH IFR CEILINGS BY SUNDAY MORNING. JLT && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 249 PM CST SAT MAR 4 2006 .SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A STRONG UPPER WAVE BEING KICKED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE DOWNSTREAM A RIDGE IS SITTING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT CAN ALSO BE SEEN EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE NOSE OF A NARROW BAND OF RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CURRENTLY WITH DECENT THETA E ADVECTION SHOWING UP OVER THIS AREA. RUC AND LAPS DATA REVEAL SOME WEAK DESTABILIZATION ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN THIS AREA. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE AREA IS HEADED TOWARD AN ACTIVE WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE TAIL END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KICK THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE QUICKLY EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONTINUED DESTABILZATION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF CAPE EXCEEDING 300-500 J/KG WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER SW NEBRASKA OR NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING AND BEGIN PROPAGATING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNSET IN RESPONSE TO THE DRYLINE MOVING EAST AND A 50+ KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE CWA. HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE WELL IN PLACE BY THIS POINT. ELEVATED CAPE IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE WILL STILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A DRY DAY TO THE AREA WITH A CLEAR SKY DEVELOPING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE LEE TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER NIGHT AND DAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER WAVE THEN SLIDES EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES THE RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE A SURFACE LOW IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF WAA AT 850MB DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH A BAND OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THIS FORCING LOOKS TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY ON 300 AND 305K SURFACES AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BEST LIFT IS INDICATED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSES NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THEN FORECAST DRIES BEHIND THE THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE LATEST GFS IS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN WHICH WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE MORE NORTHERN PLACEMENT OF THE ECMWF. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN STRETCHES NORTHEAST INTO EITHER THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PLAINS DEPENDING ON THE BOUNDARY. IF MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION VERIFIES...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY AND CURRENT POPS REMAIN. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH PCPN CHANCES CONTINUING. EARLIER RUNS OF MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EXTENDED PATTERN THAN THE LATEST RUNS. IN A PROGRESSIVE BROAD TROUGH PATTERN...CHANCES FOR PCPN EXISTS BUT IT IS STILL TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME AND PLACE HIGHER POPS GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND LATTER DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HAVE BLANKETED POPS FOR NOW AND WILL REFINE WITH TIME. GFS HINTS AT SOME COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY BRINING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW...BUT IS A BIT PREMATURE TO MENTION YET. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ AWJ/FAY ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 330 PM CST SAT MAR 4 2006 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT/CONCERN WILL BE ONGOING HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING WHILE THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. STRONG SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVING ACROSS YELLOWSTONE PARK. ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN EASTERN MONTANA. OUR PROBLEM HERE IS THAT WE ARE AWFULLY DRY AND THE SYSTEM IS TAKING IT TIME MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THERE WAS LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR CROSBY THIS MORNING BUT SOME SLEET AS WELL. THAT LEADING BAND HAS NOW MOVED INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND HAS DISSIPATED. THE 18Z RUC AND NAM TELL TWO DIFFERENT STORIES WITH THIS BAND AS THE RUC IS BASICALLY DRY...BUT THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME GOOD QPF THIS EVENING OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA. FEEL THE ANSWER LIES IN BETWEEN BUT MAYBE CLOSER TO RUC...BUT FOR THE SAKE OF ONGOING ADVISORY... HOPEFULLY CLOSER TO THE NAM. IN THE WEST...THE PRECIP IS PRETTY MUCH OVER...UNTIL THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND WE TRANSITION INTO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. WOULD EXPECT NOT MUCH HAPPENING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS FOR THE ADVISORY...WILL KEEP IT GOING BUT WILL REWORD TO HIGHLIGHT MAIN BRUNT OF SYSTEM WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. COULD PUSH THE WHOLE THING BACK BUT IF PRECIP DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED BY THE 18Z NAM...WOULD RATHER HAVE SOMETHING ALREADY OUT. WILL DROP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT IN THE ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT BLOWING SNOW POSSIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING. BEYOND SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY BUT THAT IS SHORT LIVED...AS BY MONDAY NIGHT WE RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER PRECIP EVENT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT WE WILL SEE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP ONCE AGAIN...WITH RAIN SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES CENTRAL AND EAST. VERY FEW CHANGES TO MIN/MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN LONG RANGE MODEL RUN BUT GENERALLY ARE FAIR AGREEMENT. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SOME BACKLASH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP UNSETTLE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOWS AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH BOTH SYSTEM BUT THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF MIXED PRECIP AS WARMER AIR OVERRIDES THE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH TODAY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY. && $$ TWH/RGT nd