FXUS62 KTAE 031715
AFDTLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
115 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2003

.OVERVIEW...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD TO THE NE OF THE CWA 
...YIELDING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. OVER 
THE COASTAL WATERS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX WITH 
THE NE WINDS GENERALLY DROPPING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. 

.SHORT TERM...THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE BEGINNING TO CARVE 
OUT OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...IN RESPONSE TO THE MASSIVE UPPER LOW 
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. THE FIRST IMPULSE 
WILL PASS WELL TO THE N OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE SECOND 
ONE WILL DIG MUCH FURTHER TO THE SE AND WILL HELP INITIATE THE COLD 
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE EXTENDED...THE SHORT 
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE 
SE U.S. WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE THRUST OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR 
BEHIND THE FRONT TO BYPASS THE REGION TO THE N. WITH THE DELAY IN 
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOW EXPECT A DRY DAY SATURDAY...WILL TRIM BACK 
POPS TO ISOLATED ON SUNDAY...AND WILL RAISE THEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY. NEVERTHELESS...30 PERCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE 
HIGHEST POPS FOR THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. 

.MARINE...WITH FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
FCST...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE AND REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE 
NEXT FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.FIRE WX...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITERIA.

.EXTENDED...IN ADDITION TO DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL 
MONDAY...THE GFS HAS NOW FURTHER DE-AMPLIFIED THE UPPER LEVEL 
PATTERN. THIS WILL NOW LIKELY RESULT IN THE BRUNT OF THE COOLER AND 
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDING EASTWARD WITH THE SFC RIDGE AND 
NOT SOUTHWARD...SO ENDED UP RAISING TEMPS QUITE A BIT FROM MID WEEK 
ON...ESPECIALLY LOWS. BY NEXT FRIDAY...THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING VERY 
RAPID MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SE...BUT WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS 
SOLUTION UNTIL MORE CONSISTENCY IS SHOWN...AND THE FATE OF ANY OF 
LARRY'S REMAINING MOISTURE CAN BE MORE ACCURATELY DETERMINED.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 59 87 61 87 / 00 00 00 10
PFN 62 85 67 86 / 00 00 00 10
DHN 60 83 62 86 / 00 00 05 10
ABY 56 84 60 84 / 00 00 05 10
VLD 57 86 62 87 / 00 00 00 10
CTY 60 86 62 86 / 00 00 00 10

.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

$$

GOULD