FXUS62 KCHS 300059
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
800 PM EST MON NOV 29 2004

.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...SFC HI PRES RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST 
YIELDING LIGHT E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO BACK A BIT 
TO NE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK WEDGE DEVELOPS BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
NONETHELESS. THE LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE 
WILL AID IN PATCHY FOG FORMATION SO WILL MENTION IN FORECAST UPDATE 
AND INCLUDE IN GRIDS. FEEL AS THOUGH BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN INLAND 
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. MIN TEMPS 
LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE BUT MAY TWEAK DOWN JUST A BIT FOR SOME 
AREAS BASED ON LATEST OBS. ALSO...ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO WARRANT 
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE 
MARINE AREA OVERNIGHT. SEAS RUNNING ABOUT 3 TO 4 FT IN SC WATERS AND 
3 TO 5 FT ACROSS GA WATERS. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR INITIALIZATION 
CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS AND ALSO WILL ADVERTISE SCA CONDITIONS 
POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/WED FOR OUTER GA WATERS FOR SEAS. OTHERWISE...NO 
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. 

&&

.AVIATION...VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE AND LIMITED ISENTROPIC LIFT 
RESULTING IN SCT TO BKN CIGS AT BOTH SITES AROUND 3K FT...WITH 
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LATEST THINKING 
ALLOWS FOR THESE EFFECTS TO END EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THEN THE FOG 
POTENTIAL BECOMES A PROBLEM. BOTH FSI AND CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE 
INDICATE THAT FOG WILL FORM...AND WITH CURRENT DEWPT DEPRESSIONS 
QUITE SMALL...AND HIGHER DEWPTS WITH THE ELY FLOW...HAVE LEANED 
TOWARD THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO SHOWS THE FOG. HAVE GONE WITH 
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE AT CHS AND IFR AT SAV.

ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TUE WITH A GOOD 3-5 DEGREE LOW LEVEL 
INVERSION FORMING AROUND 4K FT...THUS SKIES BECOMING OVC AT BOTH 
SITES DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT A 
LITTLE LIGHT RAIN...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN EITHER TAF AT THIS 
TIME. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT NE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE...VEERING TO SE BY 
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES WEDGE WEAKENS AND THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS E. 
ALSO COULD SEE A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOP AND PUSH THRU EACH 
SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON.    


&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

RB/PM