FXUS04 KWBC 241840
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
240 PM EDT SAT APR 24 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 25/0000 UTC THRU APR 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
     
DAY 1...

THE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN MOVG
ENEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...LOWER OH
VALLEY AND MID WEST AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVR THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION.  WHILE THE STRONG CLOSED
LOW OVR THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WL CONT TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
NEWD DAY 1...THE OVERALL MEAN TROF DOES NOT MOVE AS QUICKLY OR
WEAKEN...THUS CONTINUING HEAVY PCPN THREAT TO ITS EAST.  THE AMT
OF
PCPN FOR THIS UPCOMING DAY...HOWEVER...WL LIKELY NOT BE AS HEAVY
OR AS WIDESPREAD WITH VERY HEAVY AMTS AS WHAT OCCURRED OVR THE
PAST 24 HRS GIVEN WEAKER LOW TO MID LEVEL DYNAMICS COMPARED TO
THE PAST 24 HRS.  STILL...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STILL
FAVORABLE
JET DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM
CNTRL TO ERN TX...NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY
AND INTO THE MID WEST...HVY PCPN AMTS ARE LIKELY.    THERE ARE THE
USUAL DETAIL DIFFS WITH THE QPF BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL ETA/GFS
AND THEIR CORRESPONDING SREF MEMBERS.   MAKING THINGS WORSE...IS
THE UNCERTAINTY IF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE VORT
OVR NERN TX CORRECTLY.   BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THIS VORT BREAKING
INTO TWO PIECES...ONE MOVG NEWD IN THE MEAN SWLY FLOW INTO THE MS
VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID WEST...WHILE ANOTHER PIECE PUSHES
MORE EWD INTO THE GULF COAST.   BOTH MODELS INITIALLY APPEAR
UNDERDONE WITH THE WELL DEFINED INFLOW BAND OF PCPN AHEAD OF
THIS VORT OVR LA..WRN MS AND ERN AR.  DAY 1 PROG INCREASED PCPN IN
THIS INFLOW AREA DURG THE FIRST 12 HRS WHEN EXTRAPOLATION OF IT
MAY WORK BETTER.   MODELS WERE MORE SIMILAR FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE
MID WEST WITH .50-1"+ AMTS DEPICTED.

ACRS ERN TX INTO LA AND NRN TO WRN MS...THERE ARE LARGER MODEL
DIFF THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONT INTO TOMORROW WITH RESPECT
TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRES AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL BNDRY.  WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS
THIS AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX..CONT
FAVORABLE UPR DYNAMICS IN THE RT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET
AND CONVERGENCE FROM THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE...BELIEVE THE HEAVIER
GFS DEPICTION IS BEST.  THE GFS IS...HOWEVER...SUFFERING FROM
APPARENT GRID SCALE PROBLEMS ACRS THIS REGION...BUT ITS OVERALL
IDEA OF HEAVIER QPF THAN THE ETA LOOKS GOOD.  SEVERAL OF THE
ETA...ETAKF AND RSM SREF MEMBERS...ALONG WITH THE CAN GEM SUPPORT
HEAVIER PCPN AMTS.  THE DAY 1 PROG LEANED TOWARD THE GFS...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY TONED DOWN FROM THE GFS' BULLS EYE MAXES.  1-2"+ AREAL
AVG
AMTS DEPICTED DAY 1 ACRS ERN TX INTO LA...NRN TO CNTRL MS 


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 385917 390916 398916 403920 407935 403947 402965 407974 
      420983 448999 475001 508952 517888 507828 486755 475738 
      466729 457722 435719 431721 429724 424732 416744 404769 
      399780 391792 385797 381799 377799 369792 359785 354781 
      349779 338773 334770 327775 331787 331792 330795 328801 
      327806 326810 328814 332823 336828 343840 344849 339857 
      328865 295880 275890 270903 267920 265933 259954 254972 
      250993 252011 265021 280024 291023 302014 319992 345949 
      352939 359931 366926 372922 379918 383916 385917 
 0.01 431076 432068 431060 430055 427048 421041 415035 409034 
      403035 398037 395040 390050 393061 393068 392072 394075 
      398079 401081 407083 410083 412086 415087 421087 427084 
      429080 431076 
 0.25 362919 382909 400905 412908 424917 431928 433941 441956 
      453955 465945 476933 486919 491903 490882 486860 478853 
      469849 458829 457809 459791 454765 440758 429762 417774 
      397805 392812 385821 379829 372837 366843 359850 354857 
      346863 338868 330874 313886 304889 293891 288893 283895 
      281898 281904 284909 285913 286921 285933 281943 278950 
      274956 264969 262980 261990 262996 264999 272003 279006 
      285006 290004 298999 303994 309987 312985 317983 320980 
      323977 328968 329965 331959 331954 332950 337943 343935 
      355923 362919 
 0.50 366909 391896 400892 416879 435852 446821 450798 451780 
      447770 436770 425775 415785 403810 391828 387826 379838 
      367852 363857 358862 345870 330879 319887 307894 301894 
      296896 291899 291902 290908 291912 292918 292923 290929 
      286940 280952 273965 268977 266983 267992 271998 275001 
      280004 286000 296992 302988 306983 313973 318966 321960 
      323954 327946 334936 338931 344927 357917 366909 
 1.00 439791 440787 438785 435785 434786 432787 430791 429793 
      431793 432795 435797 437795 439792 439791 
 1.00 380894 419851 438818 440799 440790 432790 426807 415835 
      406849 392858 372869 352878 327889 322892 314899 306907 
      301917 292936 288947 284959 283963 284971 290979 296981 
      300979 307969 313961 319952 321946 323939 327931 347917 
      355910 361905 366903 375896 380894 
 1.50 309955 329923 359901 379886 388880 389873 380876 366883 
      355888 344890 335892 326896 318903 308912 302924 297934 
      293945 292953 292958 296961 303960 309955 
 2.00 315912 304930 303937 304943 311937 324921 331916 336913 
      340906 339901 334901 326905 318910 315912  
 
$$