000
FXUS10 KWNH 081829
PMDHMD
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
128 PM EST SUN FEB 08 2009
 
VALID FEB 08/1200 UTC THRU FEB 12/0000 UTC
 

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z/08 FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES...INCLUDING THE ECMWF


ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS.


...CYCLONE LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS DAY 1 INTO DAY 2...

THE NAM IS SLOWER THAN BOTH THE GFS AND 00Z/08 ECMWF WITH THE
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW DAY 1.  BY THE BEGINNING OF DAY
3...THE NAM AND GFS ARE SEVERAL MILLIBARS DEEPER THAN THE OLD
ECMWF WITH THE CENTER NORTHWEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE GFS
THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE THREE MODELS.  THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET
ARE ALSO FARTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND OLD ECMWF BY 00Z/11
WEDNESDAY...AND OF A COMPARABLE DEPTH TO THE NAM AND GFS.

THE 12Z/08 ECMWF CLUSTERS WELL WITH THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET WITH
THE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY THROUGH 00Z/10 TUESDAY...SO WILL RELY
ON THEIR SOLID CONSENSUS THROUGH THAT TIME.  AFTER THAT...THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA THAN ALL THE CURRENT MODELS BUT THE NAM...AND DOES NOT
INDICATE THE DEPTH OF ANY OF THE 12Z/08 GUIDANCE BY 00Z/11
WEDNESDAY.   THE ECMWFS CONTINUITY ALONE MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
DISMISS...AND WITH ITS STRONG VERIFICATION THIS COLD SEASON FOR
MUCH OF THE NATION...WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE END OF DAY 2.


...SECOND WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE
BEGINNING OF DAY 3...

THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF TO SWING THE LOW THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY DAY 3...AND UNLIKE THOSE
MODELS...SHEARS THE SYSTEM INTO TWO CENTERS AS IT CROSSES THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  BY THE END OF DAY 3...THE GFS THEN
OUTPACES THE NAM AND ECMWF WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  THE UKMET IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF THROUGH 12Z/11
WEDNESDAY...AFTER WHICH IT PULLS TO THE LEFT.  THE GEM GLOBAL IS
CLOSER TO THE CURRENT GFS...BUT FARTHER WEST AND DEEPER BY THE END
OF DAY 3.  WILL RELY ON THE CURRENT ECMWF FOR THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL...CONSIDERING ITS STRONG CONTINUITY AND SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.


...CYCLONE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE DAY 2 INTO DAY
3...

THE NAM AND GEM GLOBAL ARE CONSIDERABLY SHALLOWER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH THIS LOW...WITH THE UKMET SOMEWHERE BETWEEN.  THE ECMWF
IS SOUTH OF ALL THESE MODELS WITH THE CENTER AT THE BEGINNING OF
DAY 3.  FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY
DEPICTED A DEEP SYSTEM IN THIS REGION...EVEN WHEN THE OTHER MODELS
BUILT HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEST COAST.  ITS STRONG CONTINUITY
MAKES IT PREFERABLE OVER THE LOT OF THE 12Z/08 GUIDANCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML


CISCO
$$