####018003369####
FGUS71 KCAR 212004

ESFCAR

MEZ001>006-010-011-029>032-222300-



HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...RETRANSMITTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

400 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2009



...WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN...CENTRAL 

AND DOWNEAST MAINE...



THIS IS THE FIRST WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 

NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE FOR 2009...ISSUED BY THE 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU...MAINE.



THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT...RUNOFF AND ICE 

JAMS IS NORMAL.



...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...



BITTER COLD IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN MAINE IN THE NEAR TERM.  

TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO IN 

THE FAR NORTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER 

SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL 

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY.



...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...



...SNOW DEPTH...



SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 6 TO 24 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SNOWFALL 

AMOUNTS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE 2008-2009 SEASON.



...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...



DOWNEAST...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE RUNNING LESS THAN 3 INCHES. 

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE TO 

2 TO 5 INCHES.



...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...



STORAGE IN THE TWO MAJOR NORTHERN MAINE STORAGE BASINS...THE 

PENOBSCOT WATERSHED AND THE ST. CROIX RIVER WATERSHED...WERE NEAR 80 

PERCENT OF CAPACITY. GROUND WATER LEVELS AT THE REGIONS WATER 

MONITORING STATIONS WERE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.



SOIL TEMPERATURE AT 4 INCHES OF DEPTH WAS 23 DEGREES AND THE FROST 

DEPTH WAS 20 INCHES IN CARIBOU.



THE PALMER INDEX AND A SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS INDICATE VERY WET 

ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. 



...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...



RIVER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. RIVER ICE HAS FORMED ON ALL 

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RIVERS...WITH SHORE ICE AFFECTING THE DOWNEAST 

RIVERS. HEAVY RAINS IN NOVEMBER SHOOK LOOSE MUCH OF THE NEWLY FORMED 

RIVER ICE IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RIVERS. 

THIS ICE FORMED SOME SMALL ICE JAMS AT REMOTE MONITORING STATIONS AT 

NINE MILE BRIDGE...ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER...MASARDIS ON THE 

AROOSTOOK RIVER...WEST ENFIELD ON THE PENOBSCOT RIVER. A RIVER 

SPOTTER IN GUILFORD REPORTED A SMALL ICE JAM ON THE PISCATAQUIS 

RIVER THERE.



ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED BITTER COLD AIR IN THE REGION...RIVER ICE 

GROWTH IS EXPECTED HASTEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MONTH.



...IN CONCLUSION...



BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 

IS NEAR NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH 

THE END OF JANUARY MEANS NO WIDESPREAD SNOWMELT OR RAIN EVENTS ARE 

EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RIVER ICE WILL GROW EXPONENTIALLY WHILE RESIDING 

UNDER THE EXPECTED EXTREME COLD FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.



IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER...RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A 

PERIOD OF TIME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE 

SEVERITY OF FLOODING. FLOODING CAN OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THE FLOOD 

POTENTIAL IS NOW CONSIDERED NORMAL SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP.



THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS 

OFFICE ON OR ABOUT JANUARY 23.



$$



MAT