NOAA Paleoclimatology Program - Touchan et al. 2003 SW Turkey Tree Ring Precip. Reconstructions

*Preliminary reconstructions of spring precipitation in southwestern Turkey from tree-ring width*

Figure 8. Five-year running means of reconstructed May-June precipitation for southwestern Turkey. Uncertainty in reconstructed values is shown by an 80% confidence interval (shaded) derived by Monte Carlo analysis.	Preliminary reconstructions of spring precipitation in southwestern Turkey from tree-ring width International Journal of Climatology Vol. 23, Issue 2, pp. 157-171, February 2003. Ramzi Touchan, David M. Meko, Gary Funkhouser, Malcolm K. Hughes, Brian S. Wallin Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA Gregg M. Garfin Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA Nesat Erkan Southwest Anatolia Forest Research Institute (SAFRI), POB:264, Antalya, Turkey

ABSTRACT:
Two reconstructions of spring (May-June) precipitation have been developed for southwestern Turkey. The first reconstruction (1776-1998) was developed from principal components of nine chronologies of Cedrus libani, Juniperus excelsa, Pinus brutia, and Pinus nigra. The second reconstruction (1339-1998) was derived from principal components of three J. excelsa chronologies. Calibration and verification statistics of both reconstructions indicate reasonably accurate reconstruction of spring precipitation for southwestern Turkey, and show clear evidence of multi-year to decadal variations in spring precipitation. The longest period of reconstructed spring drought, defined as consecutive years with less than 80% of normal May-June precipitation, was 4 years (1476-79). Only one drought event of this duration has occurred during the last six centuries. Monte Carlo analysis indicates a less than 33% probability that southwestern Turkey has experienced spring drought longer than 5 years in the past 660 years. Apart from the 1476-79 extended dry period, spring droughts of 3 years in length have only occurred from 1700 to the present. The longest reconstructed wet period, defined as consecutive years with more than 120% of normal May-June precipitation, was 4 years (1532-35). The absence of extended spring drought during the 16th and 17th centuries and the occurrence of extended wet spring periods during these centuries suggest a possible regime shift in climate. Preliminary analysis of links between large-scale climatic variation and these climate reconstructions shows that there is a relationship between extremes in spring precipitation and anomalous atmospheric circulation in the region.

Download Data from the WDC Paleo archive:
Southwestern Turkey Spring Precipitation Reconstructions

Tree Ring Data:
Click each site name to download tree ring measurements data from the
International Tree Ring Data Bank at the WDC Paleo

Name	ID	Species	Lat.	Long.	Elev.m.	FYOD	LYOD	Age
Aziziye	AZY	Pinus nigra	37 25	30 17	1601	1772	2000	229
Su Batan	SUBJ	Juniperus excelsa	37 25	30 18	1862	1246	2000	755
Dumali Dag/Göller	DUDP	Pinus brutia	37 24	30 38	1156	1730	2000	271
Elmali	HUKJ	Juniperus excelsa	36 36	30 01	1853	1332	2000	669
Elmali	ECELI	Cedrus libani	36 36	30 01	1937	1449	2000	552
Göller	GOL	Juniperus excelsa	37 05	30 31	1047	1152	2000	849
Katrandagi	KATA	Cedrus libani	37 23	30 36	1469	1693	2000	318
Kozlu Pinari	KOPP	Pinus nigra	36 39	32 12	1633	1586	2000	415
Yellic Beli	YEBC	Cedrus libani	36 39	32 11	1723	1628	2000	373

To read or view the full study, please visit the Wiley InterScience website.
It was published in International Journal of Climatology, v. 23, Issue 2, pp. 157-171, February 2003.