ABSTRACT: Two reconstructions of spring (May-June) precipitation have been developed for southwestern Turkey. The first reconstruction (1776-1998) was developed from principal components of nine chronologies of Cedrus libani, Juniperus excelsa, Pinus brutia, and Pinus nigra. The second reconstruction (1339-1998) was derived from principal components of three J. excelsa chronologies. Calibration and verification statistics of both reconstructions indicate reasonably accurate reconstruction of spring precipitation for southwestern Turkey, and show clear evidence of multi-year to decadal variations in spring precipitation. The longest period of reconstructed spring drought, defined as consecutive years with less than 80% of normal May-June precipitation, was 4 years (1476-79). Only one drought event of this duration has occurred during the last six centuries. Monte Carlo analysis indicates a less than 33% probability that southwestern Turkey has experienced spring drought longer than 5 years in the past 660 years. Apart from the 1476-79 extended dry period, spring droughts of 3 years in length have only occurred from 1700 to the present. The longest reconstructed wet period, defined as consecutive years with more than 120% of normal May-June precipitation, was 4 years (1532-35). The absence of extended spring drought during the 16th and 17th centuries and the occurrence of extended wet spring periods during these centuries suggest a possible regime shift in climate. Preliminary analysis of links between large-scale climatic variation and these climate reconstructions shows that there is a relationship between extremes in spring precipitation and anomalous atmospheric circulation in the region. |
Download Data from the WDC Paleo archive: Southwestern Turkey Spring Precipitation Reconstructions |
Tree Ring Data:
Click each site name to download tree ring measurements data from the
International Tree Ring Data Bank at the WDC Paleo
Name |
ID |
Species |
Lat. |
Long. |
Elev.m. |
FYOD |
LYOD |
Age |
AZY |
Pinus nigra |
37 25 |
30 17 |
1601 |
1772 |
2000 |
229 |
|
SUBJ |
Juniperus excelsa |
37 25 |
30 18 |
1862 |
1246 |
2000 |
755 |
|
DUDP |
Pinus brutia |
37 24 |
30 38 |
1156 |
1730 |
2000 |
271 |
|
HUKJ |
Juniperus excelsa |
36 36 |
30 01 |
1853 |
1332 |
2000 |
669 |
|
ECELI |
Cedrus libani |
36 36 |
30 01 |
1937 |
1449 |
2000 |
552 |
|
GOL |
Juniperus excelsa |
37 05 |
30 31 |
1047 |
1152 |
2000 |
849 |
|
KATA |
Cedrus libani |
37 23 |
30 36 |
1469 |
1693 |
2000 |
318 |
|
KOPP |
Pinus nigra |
36 39 |
32 12 |
1633 |
1586 |
2000 |
415 |
|
YEBC |
Cedrus libani |
36 39 |
32 11 |
1723 |
1628 |
2000 |
373 |
To read or view the full study, please visit the
Wiley InterScience website. It was published in International Journal of Climatology, v. 23, Issue 2, pp. 157-171, February 2003. |
Contact Us National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 12 June 2003
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