AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1235 PM EST FRI APR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION MIXING STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. UPDATED ZONES FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND MENTIONED GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WAYCROSS REPORTED NW 23G32 MPH AND RH IS 34%. BOTH RUC AND LAMP STILL INDICATE A LONG DURATION BELOW 25% THIS AFTN. EVEN THOUGH 17Z LAMP SHOWS 29%...THINK THE MINIMUM RH WILL FALL BELOW 25% AND HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR INLAND SE GA. && ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 955 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004 ...DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... .DISCUSSION...BEAUTIFUL BLUE SKIES GRACE THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE PIC SHOW VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. ONLY AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE MORNING SOUNDING IS AT BASE OF INVERSION JUST ABOVE 800 MB WHICH IS WHY TAFS HAVE FEW070 THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS RANGE FROM MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH MAV. THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA AND WILL CHANGE SKY COVER TO MOSTLY SUNNY. && .MARINE...EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE THIS AFTN TO KICK UP WINDS AGAIN INTO SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. NO CHANGES REQUIRED. && .FIRE WEATHER...RUC INDICATES RH BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 5 HOURS OVER INLAND SE GA. 14Z RUC RH FIELD IS ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT CONDTIONS IN GA. MOST RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS 6 HOURS BELOW 25% FOR WAYCROSS. FUELS ARE VERY DRY BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 10 AM OBS TO MAKE DECISION ON RED FLAG FOR GA THIS AFTN. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FERNANDINA BCH TO FLAGLER BCH 20-60NM. RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WX WATCH FOR NE FL SAT. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALTAMAHA TO FERNANDINA BCH 20-60NM. RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES EXCEPT COASTAL GLYNN AND COASTAL CAMDEN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. && $$ TRABERT/HESS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 955 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004 ...DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... .DISCUSSION...BEAUTIFUL BLUE SKIES GRACE THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE PIC SHOW VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. ONLY AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE MORNING SOUNDING IS AT BASE OF INVERSION JUST ABOVE 800 MB WHICH IS WHY TAFS HAVE FEW070 THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS RANGE FROM MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH MAV. THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA AND WILL CHANGE SKY COVER TO MOSTLY SUNNY. && .MARINE...EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE THIS AFTN TO KICK UP WINDS AGAIN INTO SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. NO CHANGES REQUIRED. && .FIRE WEATHER...RUC INDICATES RH BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 5 HOURS OVER INLAND SE GA. 14Z RUC RH FIELD IS ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT CONDTIONS IN GA. MOST RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS 6 HOURS BELOW 25% FOR WAYCROSS. FUELS ARE VERY DRY BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 10 AM OBS TO MAKE DECISION ON RED FLAG FOR GA THIS AFTN. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FERNANDINA BCH TO FLAGLER BCH 20-60NM. RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WX WATCH FOR NE FL SAT. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALTAMAHA TO FERNANDINA BCH 20-60NM. && $$ TRABERT/HESS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 938 PM CST FRI APR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION.. QUIET EVENING IN PROGRESS WITH MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOCUSING ON TEMPERATURES...AND ONSET OF ANY POTENTIAL SKY COVER BY OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS WINDS. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOWING UP IN THE H85 CHART WITH 25 TO 30 DEG DEW POINT SPREADS FROM WESTERN IOWA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK GRADIENT OVER STATE HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GO LIGHT NORTH AND TEMPERATES TO DROP INTO 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DES MOINES AIRPORT HEAT ISLAND. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS FOR TIMING AND PASSAGE OF DRY TROF AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NISH VALLEY IN SW CWA GIVEN LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE TROF PASSAGE. MAY BE OPTIMISTIC WITH 70 PERCENT SKY COVER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT GIVEN DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WARMING IR IMAGERY OVER NRN PLAINS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER NRN HALF OF CWA BY AROUND 10Z AND LIKE THE RUC DEPICTION OF THIS. LOOKING AHEAD INTO SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY ONE WITH MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO AROUND 770MB WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO EAST. MODEL SUSTAINING 20+ KTS OF SFC WIND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ANTICIPATED. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MR ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1110 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004 WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...MOVING FROM A CENTER NEAR HGR TO OVER THE NATIONS CAPITOL OVERNIGHT. CONTINUOUS VERTICAL MOTION HAS MOISTENED THE UPPER LEVELS...DECAYING THE DRYSLOT TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT. ACARS WIND OBSERVATIONS IN THE 400-250MB LAYER SHOW A JET FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE A 115KT JETLET IS POSITIONED. A 80-100KT JET TIED TO THE UPPER LOW STRETCHES FROM BOSTON WEST AND SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1002MB OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION...WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE ENCROACHING FROM THE EAST...NORTH OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW EASTWARD. THOUGHT THAT BY NOW PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MORE SHOWERY AND DEPENDANT ON INSTABILITY. PART OF THE RATIONALE IS A SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE NORTHEAST CONUS JET...WHICH IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER LOW DURING THE NEXT 24HR AND SUPPORT THE UPPER LOWS EXIT SATURDAY. PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN FAVORABLE DENDRTIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURE LAYER ALLOWED SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER A HALF FOOT IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. 06Z/12Z ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER LOW SLOWLY WOBBLES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. 06Z ETA AND GFS ALONG WITH 09Z RUC BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE MIDLEVEL DRYING DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUGGESTS DIURNAL LOW LEVEL WARMING. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FROM SNOW DURING THE MIDDAY. AS THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFT SOUTHEAST...THE MODERATE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME. FURTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AND EXPECT SHOWERY INSTABILITY PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL WORDING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LIKELY FURTHER WEST...WORDING AS RAIN IN THE EAST AND SHOWERS IN THE WEST. ASOS OBSERVATIONS REPORT 0.5-1.0" OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE PAST 24HR. RIVER LEVELS HAVE RISEN SEVERAL FEET BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW LEVELS OF CONCERN. MARFC FFG IS 3-4" DURING A PERIOD OF 6 TO 24 HRS FOR PROBLEMS TO OCCUR. THEREFORE THIS SOAKING RAIN WILL NOT PRESENT A FLOOD RISK. GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL BUMP OUR TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT FRESH SNOWPACK SHOULD PRECLUDE REACHING GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY OVERCOME CYCLONIC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...ALLOWING SOME SUN TO BREAK OUT...SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES THERE AS WELL. HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS CALLS HAVE REVEALED LITTLE TO NO CURRENT PROBLEMS AS RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED. THE BLUE RIDGE IS THE MAIN CONCERN CURRENTLY...AND HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WITH FURTHER DETAILS (WBCSPSLWX). ROGOWSKI && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EST FRI APR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE PCPN TIMING/CHANCES WEST ALONG WITH CLOUDS/TEMPS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV INTO WRN ONTARIO (FROM NEAR CYPL INTO FAR NW MN). ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT TROF EXTENDED FROM NW OF CYQT INTO N CNTRL MN. VIGOROUS DPVA / 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME SPRINKLES FROM CYXL INTO N MN WITH SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE TROF WAS VERY DRY. THE 00Z ETA DEPICTION OF THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE TROF (WITH H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -7C OVER NW UPR MI) BY 12Z IS LIKELY OVERDONE. H8 TEMPS UPSTREAM WERE INTIALIZED TOO COLD...PER 00Z CWPL SNDG. THE 00Z RUC EVEN KEEPS THE H8 THERMAL RDG OVER CNTRL UPR MI AT 12Z WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 3C. HOWEVER...LATE ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND WET-BULB TEMPS WELL BLO 0C SHOULD KEEP PCPN AS -SHSN. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE ETA PCPN PROG SUGGESTS ANY PCPN WOULD REACH ONLY FAR NW UPR MI BY 12Z. SO...HAVE TAPERED BACK MENTION OF -SHSN CHANCES CNTRL. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT...MID CLOUDS SPREADING INTO UPR MI WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR THE REST OF TONIGHT. SO...TEMPS NUDGE UPWARD A BIT. $$ && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1047 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE KWDC AREA. A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. ETA FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATES VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE U.P. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS >300MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND UP STREAM. THUS SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH TODAY. THE TRAJECTORY FORECAST AND GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS. PLAN TO BUMP SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND PULL A LITTLE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT USHERING IN COLD AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA. MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH AND 300K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT SUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE SWINGING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. $$ && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1041 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004 .UPDATE...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AN AXIS OF HIGHER 850MB THETA E AIR...WITH ATLANTIC ORIGINS...IS WRAPPING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AND INTO SE MICHIGAN. SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT COMBINED WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW LEVEL THETA E AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET AXIS DIVES SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS IN PLACE AND WITH SOME WEAK RETURNS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PER EXETER RADAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ETA AND EVEN THE LATEST RUC CONTINUE TO BE A BIT TOO MOIST IN THE 925-800MB LAYER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE DATA. QUITE A BIT A BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY. WITH SOME APRIL SUNSHINE...EXPECT MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE QUITE A BIT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATED MIXING TO 900MB WOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S...EASILY ATTAINABLE GIVEN SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WILL THEREFORE RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FLOW OFF THE LAKE...PORT HURON SHOULD AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S. && CONSIDINE .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 312 AM. PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NATIONS CAPITAL WILL REMAIN AN INFLUENCE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A VERY AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE MOMENT WITH ANOTHER WAVE CROSSING SASKATCHEWAN SET TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN EVEN FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, RADAR AND METARS SHOW LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING ALONG THE RIVERS AND MAKING IT AS FAR INLAND AS I75...BUT SOUTH OF I69. REALLY, NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS WELL WITH BUFFALO RADAR SHOWING ANOTHER BATCH HEADING INTO CANADA. WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN NOT CHANGING MUCH TODAY, WE WILL HAVE A SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE PRECIP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA. IN ADDITION TO THIS CUT-OFF WILL BE CLOUD COVER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO OVER-ESTIMATE STRATUS DECK PER ENHANCED IR SATELLITE. WHEN IT COMES TO INITIALIZATION, ONE WOULD HAVE THE FAVOR THE GFS. TODAY... OUR SHORT TERM ISSUE IS ONGOING LIGHT RAIN (ALTHOUGH REFLECTIVITIES ARE INCREASING) FROM KPHN-KTTF. BASED ON SATELLITE INTERPRETATION, A WEAK JET APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE EAST MIGHT BE ENHANCING THE LIFT SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD "CLEAR" THE AREA SOMETIME THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD FAVOR KEEPING THE HIGH POPS FOR THOSE EASTERN COUNTIES WHICH WOULD COVER METRO DETROIT WHILE TOWARD THE TRI-CITIES LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THEY WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE FIELD. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, WE DID SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WHICH AIDED IN TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO 50F. WHILE THICKNESSES ARE A BIT COOLER, WE WILL PLACE THE WARMER VALUES OVER WESTERN CWA AND COOLER READINGS WITH MORE CLOUDS, LIGHT PRECIP AND TRAJECTORIES OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE HURON EASTERN COUNTIES. MODEL CONSENSUS SLOWLY MIGRATES UPPER LOW EAST OF THE NATIONS CAPITAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT DEPARTING THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THOSE EASTERN COUNTIES WITH A CHANCE FURTHER INLAND AND KEEP MOST OF THE TRI CITIES REGION DRY THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT... AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA, THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A KICKER TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO MOVE ON IN TONIGHT. WE WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S BASED ON TRAJECTORIES. QUESTION REMAINS CLOUD COVER AS, AGAIN, MODELS ARE LIKELY OVER-ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF STRATUS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE INLAND SECTIONS INCLUDING THE TRI CITIES REGION. SATURDAY... UPSTREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES AS IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED INTO OUR NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS MAY ALLOW SOUTHEAST LOWER TO SEE SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE WILL DICTATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WE WILL OBSERVE. FOR THE MOMENT, MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 50 AS TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN LOWER CANADA WERE ABLE TO SNEAK BY TO THE LOWER 50S. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICAL SYSTEM WITH MID LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER PART OF OUR STATE. BOUNDARY LAYER THICKNESSES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, BUT THAT WILL BE CHANGING IN A HURRY COMING TOWARD SUNSET. SATURDAY NIGHT... VERY INTERESTING FORECAST AS 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TOWARD THE SUB-TEENS AS SPRING TURNS BACK TO WINTER (YET, WE MOVE FORWARD WITH OUR CLOCKS). PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS ATTENTION FOCUSES TOWARD LAKE EFFECT SNOW (YES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW!). GFS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS POINTS TOWARD THE /POTENTIAL/ AS INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 5K FEET AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE LAKE. DELTA T/S ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS BUT THE QUESTION OF WIND TRAJECTORIES AND SPEEDS REMAINS IS A CONCERN. GRADIENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH SO LAKE AGGREGATE BANDS SHOULD NOT BE A DECIDING FACTOR AND LAND BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EITHER. GFS 1000-850 WINDS SHOW AN AVERAGE OF 35-40 KNOTS WHICH SUGGESTS AMBIENT TIME OVER THE WATER WILL BE REDUCED BUT DIRECTION APPEARS TO BE 330-350 DEGREES WHICH BRINGS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE M25 CORRIDOR AND ABOUT 10-20 MILES INLAND. FOR NOW, WE WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR ADJACENT LAKE HURON COUNTIES WITH SNOW AMOUNTS GRIDS AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S. SUNDAY... APRIL SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY NOT HELP MUCH WITH OUR TEMPERATURES WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW ZERO. BUFKIT GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY ADIABATIC DECENT WOULD BRING NEAR 40 SOUTH AND MID-UPPER 30S NORTH (COOLER NEAR THE WATER). LOOKING AHEAD BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE... COULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH RECORD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH-NORTHWEST WHICH IS CONSIDERED A DOWNSLOPE AFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER. COLUMN DRIES OUT AND WE MIGHT SEE OUR WINDS DECOUPLE. PROGGED DEWPOINTS FOR AROUND 10F, YET OUR NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED WITH LESS HOURS OF DARKNESS. FOR NOW, WE WILL CALL FOR LOWS INTO THE UPPER TEENS-LOWER 20S. RECORDS TO WATCH FOR ARE MBS (14), FNT (13), AND DTW (16). NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AND WITH A QUICK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN, IT LOOKS TO BE A RAIN EVENT. THIS IS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR FOR MID WEEK. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BGM EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 930 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004 CLOUDS HAVE THINNED A BIT OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TODAY AND SOME HEATING TAKES CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. WITH TEMPS INLAND ALREADY AT OR NEAR FORECAST HIGHS WILL UP THESE TEMPS JUST A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND RUC SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF MSTR. STILL WITH UPPER LOW CLOSE BY AFTN WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE. .MARINE...SFC LOW AT 14Z WAS OVER S DELMARVA PENINSULA. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO TWEAK WORDING FOR THE INCREASE IN WINDS, OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES. CURRENT FCST ON TRACK. SEAS STILL 5 FT AT BUOY 41025 SO WILL KEEP SCEC GOING FOR WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT. .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. $$ MLF/WS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 720 PM CST FRI APR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... 01Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. A NICE RISE/FALL COUPLET NOTED WITH BOUNDARY SUGGESTING STEADY MOVEMENT TO CONTINUE. IN WAKE OF FRONT FAIRLY STIFF NORTHERLY FLOW NOTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM ALBERTA PROVINCE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF VORTICITY HELPING TO KICK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. EXAMINATION OF KMVX RADAR INDICATED BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. APPEARS ACTIVITY FALLING APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR (HIGHER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS). RUC MODEL ADVERTING VERY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO FRONT AND SHOWERS WITH BEST Q-VECTOR 700MB CONVERGENCE ALREADY EAST OF US...THUS FEEL PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD GO BY THE BOARD BY LATE EVENING. IN WAKE OF FEATURE EXPECT CLEARING TO WORK INTO AREAS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES ON ENDING TIMING OF SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY OTHER DEVIATIONS FROM CURRENT THINKING. && .HYDROLOGY... AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY FOR NE ND AND ADJACENT NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES OF MN. CALLS TO COUNTIES INDICATE SOME TOWNSHIP ROADS REMAIN UNDERWATER. AREA WITH THE MOST PROBLEMS IS THE TOWNER COUNTY AREA NEAR EGLAND WHERE SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS HAVE WASHED OUT OVER THE LAST DAY WITH SNOW MELT/RUN OFF INCREASING IN LAST 24 HOURS HERE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...FLOOD WARNING FOR TOWNER/CAVALIER/PEMBINA/BENSON/RAMSEY/WALSH/ EDDY/GRAND FORKS/GRIGGS/NELSON/STEELE/COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z SUN. MN...FLOOD WARNING FOR KITTSON/MARSHALL COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z SUN. && $$ BERG nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1017 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION... LATEST RUC SHOWING WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL PUT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY UP. WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041 GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY GAZ040-063>065-077 && $$ CDL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1054 AM CST FRI APR 02 2004 .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL DAY...WITH FIRE BEHAVIOR PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN. HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT AND BACKED INTO ERN CWA...AND AIRMASS IS VERY VERY DRY TO E AS EVIDENCED BY MPX RAOB. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH WIND IN PROFILERS WITH 3-7KTS IN LOWEST 7 KFT AT WDL. BIG CHANGE TODAY IS CI OVERHEAD...FIRST CLOUDS IN A COUPLE DAYS. RUC AND EVEN ETA SUGGEST ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO TMPS IS WISE...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY WK FLOW AND SOME THIN CI. DESPITE THESE MINOR CHANGES...GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER REMAINS BELOW THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY AND WL NOT ALTER PREVIOUS STATEMENT. GRIDS PREVIOUSLY UPDATED...AND ZONES OUT SOON. && .FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ CHAPMAN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 520 PM CST FRI APR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ON RADAR AND LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UNSTABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX. RUC 500MB HEIGHT/VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND WITH CONVECTION APPEARING TO BACK BUILD OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND EARLIER HAIL EVENT OVER KENEDY COUNTY, HAVE INCLUDED POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...SPC IS CURRENTLY MONITORING DEEP SOUTH TX FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCH. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A S/WV TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED PVA HAS MOVED NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 80 66 78 66/ 50 00 00 10 10 BROWNSVILLE 68 83 65 80 65/ 50 00 00 10 10 HARLINGEN 67 84 63 82 64/ 50 00 00 10 10 MCALLEN 66 86 63 84 63/ 50 00 00 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 86 61 84 62/ 50 00 00 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 78 67 77 67/ 50 00 00 10 10 && $$ SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...61 MARINE/AVIATION...58 MESO...VEGA THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 431 AM CST FRI APR 2 2004 .SHORT TERM... AT 10Z...ISLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONGOING OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK SHTWV TROF IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. LARGE UPR-LOW CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CAL. MEANWHILE...STRONG SHTWV TROF ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF UPR LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MX...AND FCST TO MOVE NNE THRU WTX TODAY. THIS SHTWV KICKED OFF STG CONVECTION OVER DAVIS MTN AROUND 6Z...BUT AS OF 10Z THE STORMS ARE LOSING THEIR PUNCH AS THEY MOVE INTO THE PECOS VALLEY. REMNANTS OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO OUR SW COUNTIES BY 6 AM. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN JETSTREAM ENERGY WITH THIS NEXT SHTWV IS FCST TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF TX...UPR-LVL DIVERGENCE AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE AS IT PASSES. THE LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE FAIRLY EARLY TODAY...AROUND NOON...AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE SW THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA DURING THE AFTN. HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE STORMS...PRECIP WATER AROUND 1 INCH AND FCST STORM MOTION A FAIRLY SLOW 10-20 MPH. TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN PROBABLE IN MANY PLACES. WEAK CDFNT ALSO LIES ACROSS THE SPLNS AND SHOULD PROVIDE LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT TO AID STORMS DVLPMNT. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS APPEAR MARGINAL FOR SVR TSTMS TODAY. RUC AND MESOETA FCST 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SUBSTANTIAL HEATING WHICH MAY NOT OCCUR AS IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE. FORCING FOR PRECIP BEGINS TO SHIFT NE AFTER DARK...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH IN THE SW. ETA DEPICTS ANOTHER CDFNT TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE AFTER 10 PM...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE ENE AND USHERING IN SOME COOLER AIR. .LONG TERM... SW US UPPER LOW TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD TWD WEST TEXAS FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AM EXPECTING ONGOING CONVECTION ACRS THE NRN ZONES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... DISSIPATING OR MOVING OUT OF THE FA BY 18Z SATURDAY. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH MONDAY IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN AREA OF DYNAMIC LIFT IN PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW...WILL TEND TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE WRN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE THE SHOTGUN APPROACH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LIFT IMPINGES ON THE FA BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST TUESDAY. MASSAGED OTHER GRID ELEMENTS AS WELL...BUT CHANGES WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. NEWEST GFS EXTENDED RUN SHOWS ANOTHER SRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO EFFECT THE FA LATE NEXT WEEK. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 69 50 59 40 / 80 80 60 40 TULIA 70 49 61 41 / 80 80 60 30 PLAINVIEW 70 49 62 41 / 80 80 60 40 LEVELLAND 68 52 63 42 / 80 80 60 50 LUBBOCK 70 52 64 43 / 80 80 50 40 BROWNFIELD 71 52 65 44 / 80 70 60 50 CHILDRESS 73 50 64 44 / 80 80 60 30 SPUR 73 55 63 44 / 80 80 40 30 ASPERMONT 75 56 63 45 / 80 80 40 30 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 33/07 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 240 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004 ...DRY WX PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... .CURRENTLY...LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE MID ATLC AREA WITH ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE SC COAST. LATEST GOES-12 IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW SMALL PATCH OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST NEXT FEW HRS. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLC. W TO NW FLOW OVER THE REGION CONTS WITH TEMPS LARGELY IN THE 50S AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S. TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THAN LAST NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE UPPER 30S LIKE FRI MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...AS LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLC AREA TODAY...ANOTHER STRONG ONE REPLACES IT BY SUN AFTN AS IT DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER WRN ATLC MOVES NE...HIGH PRES WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO SUN. LOWER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TODAY THAN FRI BUT WILL OCCASIONAL BE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN AS WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. PREFER MAV GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR TODAY AS IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY RUC MODEL. THE SECOND STRONG TROUGH WILL LOWER THICKNESSES AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE SE GA AREA SUN WITH BOTH GFS AND ETA INDICATING DRY FROPA OVER SRN GA AROUND 18Z SUN...AND THEN OVER SRN ZONES LATE EVENING SUN NIGHT. STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO OCCASIONAL WINDY CONDS ON SUN. COOL TEMPS EXPECTED MON MORNING WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE OVER SE GA AND NEAR 40 ACROSS SRN ZONES BUT BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LIGHT WINDS WILL GET. COOL TEMPS ON TAP FOR MON AFTN AS THICKNESSES ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM...TUE-FRI. GFS AND ETA SHOW SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES TUE WITH NLY FLOW BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM BY TUE NIGHT. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ACROSS MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUE INTO WED WITH AIRMASS MODIFYING ALLOWING LOW/HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO NUMBERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED COMING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE WED WILL GRADUALLY BRING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AND S. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG TERM FCST. MAY TWEAK TEMPS PENDING NEXT MEX GUIDANCE. && .MARINE...AREA BUOYS REPORTED WNW WINDS ~20G25 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING WHILE COASTAL OBS INDICATE WINDS OF ONLY ~10 KTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING NEAR WNA GUIDANCE AT 06Z...GIVE OR TAKE A FOOT RANGING FROM 3-6 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY /SCA/ THIS MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN OBSERVED WINDS AND EXERCISE CAUTION /SCEC/ FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW HEADLINES THIS AFTN...THEN INCREASE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THEN MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS SUN. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SFC WILL WARRANT SCEC/SCA WINDS OVER TJE NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUN AFTN. EXPECT SEAS TO BE HELD AROUND 6 FT DUE TO LIMITED FETCH. HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE AREA LATE MON WHICH WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE WINDS & SEAS. && .FIRE WX...BLENDED ETA12/AVN MOS DEW PTS TOGETHER AND LOWERED THEM BY ~2 DEG TO CORRESPOND TO 06Z OBS THIS MORNING. THIS AFTN HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN DRIER MET MOS DEW PTS...WITH VALUES RANGING IN THE MID-UPR 30S. THESE DEW PTS COMBINED WITH DRY BULB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S MAKE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACRS FL ZONES DUE TO RH/S NEAR 30% FOR 4-6 HRS. NOTE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ~15 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT DON/T EXPECT MIXING TO BE AS STRONG AS YSTDY. ALSO DON/T EXPECT GA ZONES TO NEAR THE CRITICAL 25% VALUE FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS THIS AFTN...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT LOW RH/S (~30%) AND NEAR BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE REMARKS. SUN EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY NEAR WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED NW WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR SUN AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 41 69 37 / 00 00 00 00 SSI 70 47 70 44 / 00 00 00 00 JAX 73 44 73 40 / 00 00 00 00 SGJ 72 47 73 45 / 00 00 00 00 GNV 73 42 74 38 / 00 00 00 00 OCF 72 43 73 40 / 00 00 00 00 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 20-60 NM. GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 20-60 NM. FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && $$ SHASHY/ENYEDI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 523 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER RIDGE SLIDING SE OF CWA WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS CLIPPER SHORT WAVE NOW DIVING DOWN INTO WRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT/TROF EXTENDED FROM NEAR CYQT INTO N CNTRL MN. DECENT PV MAX AND FAIRLY STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV SUPPORTING LINE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ALONG FRONT DESPITE DRY AIRMASS OVER REGION WITH PWATS AHEAD OF TROF LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE RUC INITIALIZED BETTER ON UPSTREAM 00Z KINL AND CWPL SNDGS WHILE BOTH ETA OR GFS WERE TOO COLD AT LLVLS. EVEN SO...ALL MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY LES TODAY. AND COVERAGE OF SYNOPTIC PCPN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY DRYNESS OF AMS IN PLACE. THUS...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING POPS BACK INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR TODAY WITH SCT COVERAGE ACROSS CWA. 1000-850 MB THCKNS AND WET BULB ZERO PROFILES ON MODELS SUGGEST PCPN TYPE TO STAY AS SNOW BUT WL KEEP IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER SE ZONES FOR EARLY AFT AS SLOWER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AND DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW COULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AND LIQUID PCPN THERE. WINDS COULD GET FAIRLY STRONG BY AFTERNOON AS ETA SNDGS SHOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS WITHIN MIXED LYR. BELIEVE ETA IS SHOWING ITS USUAL HIGH BIAS ON WINDS AS IT INITIALIZED TOO HIGH BASED ON UPSTREAM RAOBS. NEVERTHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS APPROACH 40 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNSLOPING AREA ALONG LAKE MI. MODELS INDICATE THAT 850 MB TEMPS REALLY DON'T GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH 850 MB THERMAL TROF TO PASS THROUGH AROUND 12Z SUN BRINGING -16 TO -17C TEMPS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT...PUSHED BACK TIMING OF LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK LES ACCUMS FOR TONIGHT TO INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS WITH MAYBE UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTH FACING HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES. KEPT IN SIMILAR AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY WITH LES TAPERING OFF SUN AFT AS THERMAL TROF MOVES EAST OF AREA AS INVERSION HGTS BEGIN TO LOWER BELOW 5 KFT WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WITH THE INCREASING CAA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL MIXED ALLOWING FOR STRONGER 20-35 MPH WINDS TO REACH SFC. THE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING LES WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BLOWING SNOW FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN ZFP AND HWO. SUN NIGHT INTO MON...KEPT IN CHC POPS FOR LES SUN EVENING AS 850 MB TEMPS LINGER AROUND -14 TO -15C...BUT THEN LOOKS FOR LES TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC-850 MB RDG BUILDS MORE OVER REGION AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE -10C. CLEARING SKIES AND LGT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW INLAND AREAS NEAR WI TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS UNDER PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH RDGG OVERHEAD. WITH MIDDAY 850 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND -6C...WOULD EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH INTO 40S ON MONDAY. $$ && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING EAST 2/3RDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 345 AM CST SAT APR 03 2004 .DISCUSSION... FROPA IN PROGRESS ACRS CWA WITH ABT A HUNDRED MILE WIDE BAND OF OVC015-025. WINDS REVVING A BIT AS WELL AS A DECENT CAA REGIME IS UNDERWAY AS THE FRONT MOVS THRU. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FLURRY THIS MORNING EAST OF THE ST. CROIX BUT WL NOT INCLUDE AS LLVL ST DECK SHOULD REALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT TRAVERSES CWA. THIS SHOWN IN META/RUC RH FIELDS. QUITE A POTENT VORT SWINGING DOWN INTO WI THIS MORNING HELPING TO RE-CARVE EASTERN TROF. OTHER CLOSED LOW WHICH WAS WESTERN ANCHOR OF OMEGA SCHEME WILL CONTINUE TO SIT AND SLOWLY SPIN AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVS SLOWLY EAST. SO...OTHER THAN A BRIEF TURN TODAY INTO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AS H5 JET OF 85KTS ZOOMS BY TO OUR EAST...PATTERN REMAINS INTACT AS MEAN RIDGE WL AGAIN MOVE OVER CWA STARTING TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERN AS ETA BUFR MOMENTUM XFEW SHOWS MIXING TO ABT 6KFT (H8) SO WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME 30KT GUSTS ESP 15Z TO 20Z. WENT BREEZY MOST LOCALES. MORNING CLOUDS WL QUICKLY BREAK UP GIVEN STRONG MIXING AND VRY DRY AIR ABV CLOUD LAYER. JUST THINK MOST GUIDANCE A SHADE WARM TDY SO DROPPED THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGS WITH SECOND WAVE OF CAA DUE IN AFTN. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS IN META RH FIELDS OF ANOTHER BATCH OF SC FOR WRN WI OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS...THINK CAA STRONG ENOUGH AND ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC FLOW TO BE PSBL...SO INDICATED THIS IN GRIDDED SKY FIELDS. COOL TONIGHT BUT WENT WARMER THAN MOST MOS AS MIXING WL CONT THRU MUCH OF NIGHT. SUNDAY SEES CONT MAINTENANCE OF WRN SPLIT FLOW WITH SUBTROPICAL JET WAY DOWN IN MEXICO AND OVR GULF. ANOTHER STRONG DRY CANADIAN HIGH COMES DOWN WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND LOW DEWPTS...MUCH LIKE YDAY. SOME WEAK CAA STILL SO TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TDY. CONT CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUN NIGHT. MONDAY/MON NIGHT A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING...AS MUCH WARMER BUBBLE OF AIR SLIDES OFF HIGH TERRAIN AHEAD OF ETA INDICATED POSITIVE TILT TROF. STRONG WAA ENSUES ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH...AND WITH DRY ATMS IN PLACE...RAPID WARMING SHUD COMMENCE. IF HIGH CLDS CAN STAY OUT...MAY APPROACH 70 VCTY CANBY/MADISON/REDWOOD FALLS AS SWLY LLVL FLOW NORMAL TO BUFFALO RIDGE SHUD INDUCE SOME NICE DOWNSLOPE WARMING. BUT HI CLDS WL LIKELY BE IN PLACE GIVEN STRONG MID LVL THETA-E ADV IN ALL MDLS. STILL...LIKELY WL SEE 35-40 DEG DIURNAL SWING FROM COOL MONDAY MORNING TO BREEZY...DRY MON AFTN. WITH VRY DRY CONDS OVR CWA...FIRE POTENTIAL WL NEED TO BE WATCHED...DESPITE THE FACT RED FLAG CRITERIA WL NOT BE MET. KEPT LOW POPS FOR MON NIGHT AS FRONT SLIPS THRU. LONGER TERM...REVIEWING THE 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLLABORATION HAS YIELDED A SMALL CHANCE IN THESE AREAS. SOME CONCERN FOR THE THURSDAY FORECAST AS WELL BUT THE ENSEMBLE PRECIP IS TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL LEAVE IT DRY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ BINAU/RAH mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1035 PM CST FRI APR 2 2004 .DISCUSSION...TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN STARR COUNTY HAS FINALLY COLLAPSED THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT/VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER RIO GRANDE PLAINS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND OFFSHORE THE COASTAL BEND. LATEST LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. LATEST MESOETA PROGS DRIER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. && .MARINE...AT 7PM BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 17G29KTS AND SEAS 4 FEET. WINDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE AND GUSTY THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S STORMS ROLL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MOST OF TOMORROW SHOULD BE CALMER AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE REGION MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOW CIGS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY WITH LOWER CIGS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ON RADAR AND LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UNSTABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX. RUC 500MB HEIGHT/VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND WITH CONVECTION APPEARING TO BACK BUILD OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND EARLIER HAIL EVENT OVER KENEDY COUNTY, HAVE INCLUDED POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...SPC IS CURRENTLY MONITORING DEEP SOUTH TX FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCH. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...61 MARINE/AVIATION...58 MESO...VEGA THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO tx WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1110 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004 RHS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF COASTAL COUNTIES AND RUC INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE EXPANDED THE RFW TO INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS COUNTY THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 955 AM... .CURRENTLY...CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. W/NW FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS SUPPRESSED ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT ZONES DOING WELL SO NO UPDATES PLANNED. RHS STARTING FALL ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL COUNTIES AND IF THEY CONTINUE TO DROP...WILL EXPAND THE RFW TO INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES. && .MARINE...BUOYS REPORTING NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL DROP THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR NOW BUT HEADLINE THAT IT MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP AGAIN. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 7 PM TODAY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS COUNTY. FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY FOR LEVY...SUMTER...POLK...HARDEE... HIGHLANDS...DESOTO AND INLAND CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES. && $$ JLC fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 914 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004 ...DRY WX PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... .PUBLIC UPDATE...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. KJAX 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED PWAT AROUND 0.40 INCH. AS ADVERTISED...TODAY WILL BE BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY (AS WAS REALIZED FRIDAY) AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE NOT AS STRONG. THICKNESS VALUES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE... THEREFORE PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE KEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF LOWER 70S APPEAR REASONABLE. NO UPDATES PLANNED. && .MARINE UPDATE...WILL DROP SCEC HEADLINES FOR NEARSHORE WATERS... DOWNGRADE SCA TO SCEC FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. AREA OBS INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASE/SUBSIDE AT BIT. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WRT CONDITIONS TO FURTHER IMPROVE TODAY...ONLY TO DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && ---------------------------------------------------------------------- .CURRENTLY...LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE MID ATLC AREA WITH ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE SC COAST. LATEST GOES-12 IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW SMALL PATCH OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST NEXT FEW HRS. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ATLC. W TO NW FLOW OVER THE REGION CONTS WITH TEMPS LARGELY IN THE 50S AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S. TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THAN LAST NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THE UPPER 30S LIKE FRI MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...AS LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLC AREA TODAY...ANOTHER STRONG ONE REPLACES IT BY SUN AFTN AS IT DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER WRN ATLC MOVES NE...HIGH PRES WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO SUN. LOWER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TODAY THAN FRI BUT WILL OCCASIONAL BE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN AS WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. PREFER MAV GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR TODAY AS IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY RUC MODEL. THE SECOND STRONG TROUGH WILL LOWER THICKNESSES AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE SE GA AREA SUN WITH BOTH GFS AND ETA INDICATING DRY FROPA OVER SRN GA AROUND 18Z SUN...AND THEN OVER SRN ZONES LATE EVENING SUN NIGHT. STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO OCCASIONAL WINDY CONDS ON SUN. COOL TEMPS EXPECTED MON MORNING WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE OVER SE GA AND NEAR 40 ACROSS SRN ZONES BUT BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LIGHT WINDS WILL GET. COOL TEMPS ON TAP FOR MON AFTN AS THICKNESSES ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM...TUE-FRI. GFS AND ETA SHOW SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE STATES TUE WITH NLY FLOW BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM BY TUE NIGHT. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ACROSS MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUE INTO WED WITH AIRMASS MODIFYING ALLOWING LOW/HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO NUMBERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED COMING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE WED WILL GRADUALLY BRING LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AND S. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG TERM FCST. MAY TWEAK TEMPS PENDING NEXT MEX GUIDANCE. && .MARINE...AREA BUOYS REPORTED WNW WINDS ~20G25 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING WHILE COASTAL OBS INDICATE WINDS OF ONLY ~10 KTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING NEAR WNA GUIDANCE AT 06Z...GIVE OR TAKE A FOOT RANGING FROM 3-6 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY /SCA/ THIS MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN OBSERVED WINDS AND EXERCISE CAUTION /SCEC/ FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW HEADLINES THIS AFTN...THEN INCREASE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THEN MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS SUN. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SFC WILL WARRANT SCEC/SCA WINDS OVER TJE NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUN AFTN. EXPECT SEAS TO BE HELD AROUND 6 FT DUE TO LIMITED FETCH. HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE AREA LATE MON WHICH WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE WINDS & SEAS. && .FIRE WX...BLENDED ETA12/AVN MOS DEW PTS TOGETHER AND LOWERED THEM BY ~2 DEG TO CORRESPOND TO 06Z OBS THIS MORNING. THIS AFTN HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN DRIER MET MOS DEW PTS...WITH VALUES RANGING IN THE MID-UPR 30S. THESE DEW PTS COMBINED WITH DRY BULB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S MAKE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACRS FL ZONES DUE TO RH/S NEAR 30% FOR 4-6 HRS. NOTE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ~15 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT DON/T EXPECT MIXING TO BE AS STRONG AS YSTDY. ALSO DON/T EXPECT GA ZONES TO NEAR THE CRITICAL 25% VALUE FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS THIS AFTN...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT LOW RH/S (~30%) AND NEAR BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE REMARKS. SUN EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY NEAR WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED NW WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR SUN AT THIS TIME. && $$ ZAPPE fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 815 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004 .SHORT TERM... BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RUC PROGS SUGGEST WE CAN DROP THE SCEC WORDING FOR OUR OUTER WATERS. RED FLAG WARNINGS LOOK ON TRACK. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE ZONE FORECASTS. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS AMENDED TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 245 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004 .SYNOPSIS...DRY AIR...SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SERN USA...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY). NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY DRY AND MODERATELY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY). NO CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS SLIGHT CHANGE THURSDAY. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR FL AND AL ZONES (EXCEPT THE COAST). ON SUNDAY RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL ZONES...FL/AL/GA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 74 41 74 36 / 00 00 00 00 PFN 72 49 73 44 / 00 00 00 00 DHN 71 44 69 38 / 00 00 00 00 ABY 71 43 70 37 / 00 00 00 00 VLD 72 42 72 38 / 00 00 00 00 CTY 73 45 73 38 / 00 00 00 00 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY NOON UNTIL SUNSET. RED FLAG WARNING SUN NOON UNTIL SUNSET. GA...RED FLAG WARNING SUN NOON UNTIL SUNSET. FL...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY NOON UNTIL SUNSET. RED FLAG WARNING SUN NOON UNTIL SUNSET. && $$ CURRENT DISCUSSION: TJT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 16 fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 952 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004 .UPDATE...WEATHER MATCHING WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO MORNING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FOR NOW. .DISCUSSION... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT ELEVATION SNOW EVENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY WITH DRIZZLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE AWIPS RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY...BUT GYX ETL PROFILER SHOWS THE INVERSION IS ABOUT 1 KM DEEP. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MUCH OF A PROBLEM. THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD SO FAR...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BEFORE DAYBREAK. IN THE SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TODAY...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE/CLOSING LOW IN THE MID LEVELS. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF WARMING FROM ABOVE. THE IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH ABOVE THE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD HELP ERODE THE INVERSION FROM THE TOP. NOT SURE THAT THIS WARMING WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW NUMEROUS BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL WORD THE FORECAST AS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO ACCOUNT FOR BREAKS THAT MAY APPEAR AS THE INVERSION BREAKS. THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE WHILE THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE...BUT THIS SHOULD TEND TO WANE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO LESSEN. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING MUCH ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MOS VALUES FOR TODAY. ANY BREAKS WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVE. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...AND THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASED OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW...BUT SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AT -10 C...WILL INDICATE LIGHT RAIN. COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...AND WILL INDICATE THIS. WITH THE CLOUDS...WUOLD NOT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GET MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFS MOS VALUES. FOR SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO ACCOUNT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN FOR NOW. THE MOS VALUES FOR SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM...AND WILL SHADE THIS DOWN A BIT. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PRESENT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE ETA/GFS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND IS FAVORED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ENOUGH COLD AIR RETURNS FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW ELSEWHERE. THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHERE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL AID DEVELOPMENT. MOS NUMBERS ARE CLOSE FOR BOTH PERIODS AND ARE ACCEPTED. && .MARINE... WILL HOLD ONTO SCA FOR SEAS...WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 6 FT...AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP TODAY. USE RUC FOR THIS MORNINGS WINDS (ETA/GFS UNDERDONE). BEYOND...ETA/GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITIONING OF THE LOW...USE A COMPROMISE TO SMOOTH OUT ANY DIFFERENCES. DID RAISE WINDS TUESDAY BASED ON GFS/UKMET/EUROPEAN CONSENSUS PUTTING US IN A DECENT NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...SCA. NH...SCA. $$ JFR/HAYES me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1122 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004 .DISCUSSION... FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTN ARE WINDS AND SNOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPPING SSE THRU WRN UPPER MI...AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE IMPRESSIVE 12HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS OF 180M AT KINL AND 200M AT CWPL. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION JUST LEFT OF SHORTWAVE TRACK COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL NNWRLY FLOW LEADING TO CLASSIC TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW AREA TIED TO HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW UPPER MI THIS MORNING (FROM FAR WRN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO ONTONAGON COUNTY AND KEWEENAW). HAD A REPORT AT 11 AM OF ABOUT 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AT MOHAWK WITH SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON SIDE ROADS. AWAY FROM THIS AREA...PCPN IS MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE INTERMITTENT. SECONDARY AREA OF -SN/FLURRIES IS MOVING SSE THRU WRN ONTARIO TO THE NW OF CYQT. APPEARS THIS AREA IS RELATED TO 5H THERMAL TROF WHICH IS DRIVING SSE. CYPL SOUNDING ACTUALLY SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM FROM 800-550MB UNDERNEATH THE THERMAL TROF. TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE WRN LAKES TODAY...WEAKLY CLOSING OFF INTO A 5H LOW OVER LWR MI BY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INDICATIONS ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THAT A COMMA HEAD TYPE SNOW AREA IS TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER NW INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI ATTM (JUST LEFT OF SHORTWAVE TRACK)...STILL THINK SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS FARTHER SE. AS IT DOES SO...TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT TO SNOW OVER NW UPPER MI WILL ALSO DIMINISH. ARRIVAL OF COLD POOL MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN -SHSN LATER IN THE AFTN AGAIN. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AFTN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH FROM THE KEWEENAW E ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF THERE. FOR SW UPPER MI...SHORTWAVE TRACK OVERHEAD ATTM NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHSN WITH DRY SLOT PASSING...BUT EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES DURING THE AFTN. OVER SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA...NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING RESULTING IN LIGHTER PCPN (SNOW/RAIN DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER). AS FOR WINDS...WIND ADVY FOR LAKE SUPERIOR BORDER COUNTIES LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT. CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE AFTN WITH RUC/ETA SHOWING 950MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40KT FROM THE KEWEENAW EWD. OVER THE FAR W HOWEVER...950MB WINDS ONLY INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT...BUT BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN MARGINAL CONDITIONS EVEN OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI...WILL CANCEL ADVY FOR SRN HOUGHTON/ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC. ALTHOUGH NRLY FLOW IS NOT THE PREFERRED DIRECTION FOR HIGH WINDS ON THE KEWEENAW...WILL KEEP ADVY GOING THERE WITH LAKESHORE AREAS FAVORED FOR HIGHEST WINDS. E OF THERE... EXPECT MARGINAL ADVY CRITERIA MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY HELP PUSH WINDS TO NEAR ADVY CRITERIA FROM SCHOOLCRAFT OVER TO MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVY THERE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MENTION GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT. ZFP AND NPW WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. $$ && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING EAST 2/3RDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND ADVY UNTIL 04Z MIZ001-003>007-085 $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 955 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004 KBUF/KTYX RADARS SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW. 12Z KBUF SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB. SOUNDING WAS BELOW ZERO ABOVE 920 MB. THEREFORE...SEE LITTLE REASON TO MENTION SNOW FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO ADDITIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. ANY SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. KBUF SOUNDING ALSO SUGGESTING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40F...THEREFORE WILL LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING CLEARING NOT THAT FAR OFF TO THE WEST. FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...BASICALLY UNDERNEATH SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR. EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CLEARING NEAR AN ERIE PENNSYLVANIA TO HAMILTON ONTARIO LINE. LATEST MESOETA AND RUC SUGGESTING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC AS 925 MB-850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS VERY HIGH. COULD SEE SOME SUNNY BREAKS...ESPECIALLY CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ONCE WE GET INTO TONIGHT...THE UPSTREAM WAVE QUICKLY ADVANCES INTO THE AREA AND MERGES WITH THE LEFTOVER DEFORMATION ZONE...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW NEAR KBGM AND A RESULTING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN NY STATE BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...PCPN WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FEEL THAT THE ETA PROBABLY HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER THAN THE GFS...AS THE MET GUIDANCE/2-M TEMPS OFF THE ETA BUFKIT SEEMS MORE REALISTIC FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST THAN THE CORRESPONDING MAV GUIDANCE. WILL THEREFORE SPEED UP THE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGED OVER BY ABOUT 06Z. ONCE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT WE WILL BE UNDER A DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE REAR OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AFFECTED THE LONGEST. IN TERMS OF QPF/SNOWFALL...WE FEEL THAT THE WETTER GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION COMPARED TO THE ETA...AS ITS STRONGER OMEGA FIELD SEEMS MUCH MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS (WHICH ARE PRETTY MUCH THE SAME ON BOTH MODELS). THEREFORE...THE FORECASTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GFS AND WILL BE AS FOLLOWS: AREAS WEST OF GENESEE VALLEY: 1" TONIGHT/1-3" SUNDAY GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES: 1" TONIGHT/2-4" SUNDAY AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO: 1" TONIGHT/3-6" SUNDAY IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AS SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH AIR AT 850 MB (-10C) STARTS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT...IT WILL LEAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BEHIND...AS ANY LES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF DESPITE THE REALTIVELY SHORT FETCH AND RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE LAKES...DUE TO 850 T'S OF -13C OR COLDER. DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BREAK UP THE ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MINIMAL ACTIVITY HANGING AROUND IN SOME FORM RIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHEN THE AIRMASS WILL WARM ENOUGH TO FINALLY SHUT OFF THE ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE WELL STACKED LOW HAS SETTLED OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST BUT WESTERN NEW YORK REMAINS IN A WEAKER FLOW OF SATURATED AIR AND DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVING TREND TO MAINLY MFVR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AS A DIGGING SHORT WAVE KICKS OUT THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND LIFR VSBYS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY. .BUF...NONE. $$ PUBLIC...TMA/JJR AVIATION...TJP ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1015 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND UPR LOW WOBBLING AROUND OFF COAST MD/DE. WV SAT SHOWS DRIER AIR ALOFT NOW S AND W OF A LINE FROM ROA TO RDU...AND CAN SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON VIS SAT DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. HAS BEEN SOME PRECIP ACRS ERN SHORE AND ANOTHER AREA OVR PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...MOVING NW TO SE. RUC/WSETA SHOW PRESENCE OF A WEAK JET STREAK MOVNG SWD FROM PA INTO CNTRL VA THIS MRNG...PUSHING E TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTN. THIS JET IS LIKELY ENHANCING PRECIP IN STILL FAIRLY MOIST WRAP ARND FLOW BEHIND THE UPR LOW. FOR ZONE UPDATE WILL TREND A BIT CLOUDIER IN FCST AND KEEP SOME MENTION OF SHWRS INTO AFTN ERN ZONES. BEST CHC FOR SOME SUN WILL BE W OF I-95 AND WILL WORD AFTN AS PSUNNY FOR PIEDMNT/AND FOR INLAND NC...BECMG PSUNNY LATE CNTRL VA/FAR. ...MCDY EAST. TEMPS ON TRACK WEST...MAY TWEAK DOWN A FEW DGRS EAST W/ MORE CLOUDS. WINDY TOMORROW...MORE ON THAT W/ AFTN PACKAGE. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. VA...NONE. NC...NONE. $$ BROWN _________________PREV AFD BELOW______________________ .SYNOPSIS... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW CENTER FINALLY E OF THE VA CAPES...WITH THE ENHANCED/HIGHER CLOUD TOPS (WARM CONVEYOR BELT) FARTHER E OVER THE GULF STREAM. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING SEEN OVER THE WRN COUNTIES (ERN PIEDMONT REGION)...WHERE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW IS SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE ERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER ALL AREAS THIS AFTN (ESP OVER WRN/CEN AREAS) WITH THE DOWNSLOPING W-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ABSENCE OF DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND QUITE NICELY WITH ANY SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE...WITH THE 850-700 MB THERMAL RIDGE (AHEAD OF NEXT NRN STREAM TROUGH) COINCIDING WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TONIGHT...VIGOROUS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE QUICKLY INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. SURFACE REFLECTION (FRONT) IS TOUGH TO DISTINGUISH GIVEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALREADY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE FRONT BECOMES CLEARLY EVIDENT OFF THE COAST BY 12Z. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL USHER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS PER THE GFS/ETA (WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND TIMING). SUN AND MON...LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (UP TO 5F BELOW MAV GUIDANCE). THIS BASED ON LOCAL STUDIES LINKING 1000- 850 MB TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY... HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1300 M AND AS SUCH EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 50/LOWER 50S. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (EXTENDED PERIOD) WAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. TEMPS BOUNCE BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS TUE AND WED...BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT. && .MARINE...INCREASING WINDS THIS WEEKEND SPAWNED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RAISE SEAS ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. && .AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY THIS MORNING BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SBY 55 37 48 27 / 30 10 30 30 OXB 52 40 48 30 / 30 10 30 30 WAL 55 41 49 27 / 30 10 30 30 FVX 60 38 50 24 / 10 10 10 10 RIC 59 42 53 28 / 20 10 10 10 PTB 60 40 54 27 / 20 10 10 10 AKQ 59 39 54 27 / 20 10 10 10 PHF 58 43 54 31 / 30 10 10 10 ORF 56 44 54 34 / 30 10 10 10 ECG 58 43 54 31 / 30 10 10 10 && $$ 13/22 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 155 PM EST SAT APR 3 2004 .SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)... FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE DIVING SWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LMK FA SOMETIME THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH ETA BUFKIT SUGGESTING GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH AT TIMES WITHIN WELL MIXED POST-FRONTAL BDY LAYER. PER RUC PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELDS, TIMING ON SFC FRONT ~1Z AT KSDF AND ~3Z FOR KLEX/KBWG AREAS. LACK OF CLOUDS ON SATELLITE UPSTREAM INDICATING THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED. BEST 700MB RH FCST WELL NE OF FA TONIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING CLOSER TO PATH OF 500MB HEIGHT MINIMUM, HWVR ETA SUGGESTING A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE NE OF KLEX AREA AROUND SUNRISE, WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FCST COUPLED WITH DECENT SUB-CLOUD LAYER LAPSE RATES. THERMAL TROF OVER FA SUNDAY, LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL MAXIMA. LOCAL GROWING SEASON GETTING UNDERWAY, WHICH COULD BE IMPACTED BY BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FCST ROUGHLY FROM 2 TO 9 AM MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR TIME BEING. ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS ALREADY GROWING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE SHELTERED OR COVERED SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, POINTS TOWARD A WARMING TREND MON INTO TUE. NOTE, DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME BEGINS AT 2 AM TONIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. XXV .LONG RANGE (DAYS 4-7)... GENERAL PATTERN IS SIMILAR IN MODELS WITH LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOVING EAST AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. ECMWF DEVELOPS STRONGEST LOW. GFS VARIES RUN TO RUN WITH 12Z GFS SHOWING A DEEPER LOW A LITTLE MORE LIKE ECMWF. DETAILS OF SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. WILL GO WITH BLEND AND CONSENSUS OF FOR FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO FA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. LATER RUNS SEEM TO MINIMIZE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN CIRCULATION AROUND LOW BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT AND KEEP SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GFS MOS, OR FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. MBS && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 330 PM EST SAT APR 3 2004 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE WINDS TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. A CLOSED LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A RIDGE STRETCHES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD HIGH OVER THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH VALLEY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW USHERED IN COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AS THE 1000-500MB THICKNESSES LOWERED TO 522DAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOWER MICHIGAN MID LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH PLAINS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE EAST SLOPE OF THIS RIDGE AND THROUGH THE U.P. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO MINNESOTA. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. 285K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL STABILITY OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AT THE SAME TIME THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT WILL DROP TO 200MB. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR RESULTING IN LAKE-500MB DELTA-T'S OVER 15C. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH. LOWEST INVERSION WILL BE AROUND 4K FT. SURFACE-850MB MEAN RH WILL BE AROUND 90 PERCENT. THUS CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRONE AREAS STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING THIS EVENING UNTIL THE LAKE EFFECT KICK IN. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES. THUS THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL STILL BE STRONG BUT LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVEL SO WILL DROP THE ADVISORY. SINCE THE LAKE IS A LITTLE WARMER...THERE IS BETTER CHANCE FOR THE WINDS TO MIX TO SURFACE OVER THE LAKE THIS EVENING SO GALES STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD BE ABLE DROP THEM BY MIDNIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. DELTA-T'S WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DRY AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA. SLOWER WINDS WILL INCREASE FETCH TIME OVER THE LAKE SO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES EMBEDDED OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EASTERN ONTARIO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P MONDAY NIGHT AS THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN. THE ASSOCIATED 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE. THUS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THUS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND 90 PERCENT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL TO -3C ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTORS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TOGETHER THESE SHOULD PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO MINNESOTA AS THE COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A LOW IS DEVELOPING THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AS DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE STARTS TO SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SASKATCHEWAN TROUGH WILL REACH INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE PROGS BRING THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MICHIGAN WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING MORE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWING A MID LEVEL DOUBLE LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHILE CANADIAN GEM PROGGING A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME I THINK I FAVOR THE ECMWF MODEL. $$ && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING EAST 2/3RDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 300 PM CST SAT APR 3 2004 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON WINDS THIS EVENING AND NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORT RANGE RUC PROG STILL MAINTAINING CORE OF 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS AT 1000/850 MILLIBAR LEVEL THROUGH 03Z OVR MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. CORRESPONDING RUC SURFACE WIND FORECAST RUNS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 03Z. AREA OF STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD CWA FROM NORTH WISCONSIN DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. FEEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH AND MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED CRITERIA FOR WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF CWA. BUT FOR THE MOMENT WILL NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY. IN THE LONG TERM...ETA/GFS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CWA SUNDAY...BUT DIVERGE WITH TIMING OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ETA MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN GFS. AS A RESULT ETA SWEEPS PRECIPITATION OUT OF CWA BY 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE GFS HOLDS CHANCY PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE GFS IS CLOSE TO SAME SOLUTION 24 HOURS AGO WILL MENTION CHANCY PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF CWA AND JUST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MODERATE COLUMN MOISTURE BUT INTENSE AND ENLONGATED VERTICAL MOTION FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO STRONGER THAN A CHANCE AT THIS TIME. && .MKX...NONE. $$ ZAJDEL wi