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Analysis of Freight Movements in the Puget Sound Region
Click HERE for graphic. For Information on the Regional Freight Mobility Roundtable. contact: Peter D. Beaulieu, Freight Mobility Program Manager Puget Sound Regional Council 1011 Western Avenue Suite 500 Seattle, Washington 98104 (206) 464-7537 FAX (206) 587-4825 For additional copies of this report. contact: Information Center Puget Sound Regional Council 1011 Western Avenue Suite 500 Seattle, Washington 98104 (206)464-7532 FAX (206) 587-4825 Puget Sound Regional Council Analysis of Freight Movements in the Puget Sound Region Transmode Consultants, Inc. October, 1994 Executive Summary Analysis of Freight Movements in the Puget Sound Region The purpose of this report is to lay out in a simple and direct way the data needed for freight planning and to explain the findings to date of this effort for the Puget Sound Region. Our focus is on the economy, We attempt here to understand the freight movements needed to support it and assemble the data needed to be able to track the effectiveness of this movement. There are four types of freight traffic within most urban areas. These are 1) longhaul traffic, 2) shorthaul extraregional traffic, 3) local distribution traffic and 4) through traffic. Each is different in character, involves different actors and different modes and uses different transport equipment. The study begins with the definitions used in this study. Data Sources include: - County Business Patterns - Dun & Bradstreet Market Locator - ICC Rail Carload Waybill Survey (1992) - Truckload Movement Sample (1986/87) - Truck Interview Data supported by Washington DOT - Truck Traffic Counts as reported in the GIS maintained by PSRC - Maritime Flows (as reported by the Ports of Seattle and Tacoma) Shipper Survey of the Region (administered by PSRC) This study has used freight flow data from a number of different and independent sources to build an overall picture of freight flows in the Puget Sound Region. Although the data is from different sources and is incomplete and in some ways incompatible, the approach developed here allows the different sources to be drawn together and used jointly to present a unified picture of freight movements as a whole. The strength of the approach used here is that by combining all of the sources within the framework defined by the flows developed from the County Business Patterns a coherent picture of freight movements into, out of and through the region can be developed for the first time. Two sets of computations -- manufacturing and retail - for each of the counties provide an overall framework for developing freight flows into and out of the region. We have extended the utility of the CBP data by developing an estimate of the freight flows into and out of the establishments in each 4- digit SIC category. Retail flows are developed from the National Income and Product Accounts using the final demand vector of the national input-output table. The various sectors making up the economy within a region tend to interact with one another in particular ways. These interactions are simple but powerful in explaining the operations of the transportation system. The scheme developed serves as a framework for combining the data available from a variety of sources into a coherent picture of the freight movements in the region The principal conclusions reached as the consequence of this study are: - Total truck trips per day within the region range from 40 to 50 thousand movements per day. Many are by small trucks performing shorthaul local delivery functions. - The size of the manufacturing sector as a receiver of freight is quite significant. Manufacturing establishments are responsible for approximately two- thirds of the total tonnage in the region, but account for less than ten percent of the total trip ends 1 - A remarkably large Proportion of the freight movements within the area are involved in wholesale distribution- somewhere between 70 and 85 percent of all movements. - This includes both local trips from distribution warehouses to retail and manufacturing establishments and shorthaul trips to outlying regions within a radius of about 250 miles. - Most urban areas in the U.S. receive a predominant amount of their longhaul inbound freight using longhaul truckload trucking. For the Puget Sound Region the proportion of longhaul truck in the mix was somewhat less than expected amounting to only 1380 TLEs out of 5,714 TLEs inbound and 891 TLEs outbound of 4,287 TLEs total. This may be because the region is relatively isolated from the remainder of the U.S., the distances are long and the intermodal rail service is good. - The role of rail intermodal in providing longhaul inbound and outbound movements to the economy of the region was unusually large in this region and this role is distinct from its role in moving international maritime containers, though it participates in handling roughly 1800 FEUs of through container movements per day. - The importance of maritime flows to the economy of the region is also very apparent in the figures. Both bulk and containerized flows are a significant factor in the continued growth of the region. The Ports of Seattle and Tacoma account for more than one million TEUs of container flows each. - Finally, through traffic movements by truck are not as large as one might think ranging between 2,000 and 10,000 through movements per day. 2 Analysis of Freight Movements in the Puget Sound Region Objectives of this Study The purpose of this report is to lay out in a simple and direct way the data needed for freight planning and to explain the findings to date of this effort for the Puget Sound Region. We would like to approach this subject from a zero base-that is, what do we really need to know to plan effectively for future freight movements in the region? We recognize that there is a close relationship between efficient freight movements and the healthy functioning of the economy in the region. Consequently, we would like to maintain our focus on the economy, understand the freight movements needed to support it and assemble the data needed to be able to track the effectiveness of this movement. We will begin with a set of definitions of the types of freight trips and their underlying relationship to the economy. We will follow this with a listing of the sources of data which are available by mode and how we have used these sources to develop an overall "picture" of the flows into, out of and through the region. We will follow this with a summary of where we stand in terms of the data needed for policy purposes-what do we know and what do we still not know. Finally, we will address where we should next direct our attention. Definitions There are four types of freight traffic within most urban areas. These are 1) longhaul traffic, 2) shorthaul extraregional traffic, 3) local distribution traffic and 4) through traffic. Each is different in character, involves different actors and different modes and uses different transport equipment. It is useful to begin with the definitions that we intend to use in this study. Longhaul Traffic We will define longhaul traffic as those trips into or out of the area with destinations more than 250 miles away from the point of origin. Longhaul truckload carriers compete actively with both rail carload and intermodal service for this market. In addition, there is very strong competition between individual truckload carriers. The market favors the use of motor carriers over private carriers, because without ICC operating authority, private carriers cannot carry regulated commodities and consequently become inefficient and incur higher cost because of the inability to secure return loads.1 Distance is important to the definition, because 250 miles is the approximate distance that a truck driver can drive in a day and return to his domicile without staying overnight. To remain competitive, longhaul truckload carriers must organize their operations so as to reduce the number of empty miles. They do this by providing full truckload operations direct from shipper to receiver. The longhaul truckload carrier's dispatcher is always looking ahead for the driver's next haul, which can be to anywhere in the U.S. or Canada. Thus, carriers providing service in longhaul markets must recruit and pay drivers who are willing to work for extended periods away from home. Difficulty in recruiting and training longhaul drivers has led some of the longhaul truckload carriers to subcontract the linehaul portion of the trip to intermodal. As a consequence, rail/truck intermodal traffic has been growing in excess of 15 percent per year. Shippers use longhaul carriers to carry many of the inputs used in both manufacturing and wholesale distribution operations. In today's intensely competitive world, most of the products used as inputs to both manufacturing and for retail sale are actually fabricated in other cities. Manufacturers are essentially specialists in assembling components and materials obtained elsewhere. Sales of these specialized products is what earns the money required to sustain the local economy. In the outbound direction, longhaul traffic is shipped by the _______________________________________ 1 Private carriers must apply to the Interstate Commerce Commission for operating authority before they can carry products for hire. 1 manufacturing sector only, since most of the distribution from wholesale distributors to retail outlets is less than 250 miles in length and falls into the next category of traffic to be described. Shorthaul Extraregional Traffic Shorthaul extraregional traffic is that moving within about a 250 mile radius of the origin. This traffic consists primarily of delivery movements from a wholesale distribution warehouse to outlying retail establishments. The origin is typically the homebase from which the traffic originates and to which the empty truck returns at the end of the work day. It may also consist of raw materials moving in regional markets. Sawlogs or agricultural products, for example, may be moved from harvesting regions to processing points in the region of interest, or to the port of export. These extraregional trips are typically delivery trips with an empty backhaul. The carrier is typically a private fleet with drivers who are domiciled at home and return there every night. Longhaul truckload carriers typically do not attempt to compete in these shorthaul markets, because the extensive repositioning between loads drives their costs up. Consequently, they leave this market to private carriers or to contract carriers who specialize in short haul delivery markets and design their operations accordingly. Local Traffic Local traffic is essentially local delivery operations. Trips typically involve small shipments from wholesale distribution centers to retail stores or to local manufacturers. Multiple shipments destined to several receivers are loaded on the same truck, and the driver moves from one to the next making the individual deliveries. From retail stores the delivered product is sold to consumers who carry the merchandise home in their private automobiles. Deliveries to manufacturers are used in the production process and are consequently incorporated into the finished product. This category of trip also includes drayage of intermodal trailers and containers. All modes except rail Carload are eventually delivered by shorthaul truck. This includes most air, pipeline and ocean carrier trips. These local distribution trips account for the preponderance of all trips within an urban area. Through Traffic The final type of trip is the through trip. Here, the shipment moves through the area but neither originates nor terminates there. The through movement may, however, involve some processing. For example, containers from the Far East are unloaded in the Seattle/Tacoma area and loaded onto rail doublestack cars for movement to U.S. markets in the eastern states. Full trailers for export may be returned to the area for loading onto liner services. Grain from the east arriving by rail is stored until it can be exported by ship. Through highway movements may congest the highways on their passage from Canada to California. The driver, however, may stop for the night in a truckstop in the area. It is useful to distinguish between the types of trips because of the differential impact of alternative transportation policies on each type of trip and upon the shippers and receivers that use them. Ultimately, the economy is impacted differently by one policy than it is by another. There are also implications for the data used to determine each type of trip and for the data available to help sort the process out. Data Sources The data used here has been assembled from a variety of separate independent sources. A variety of different organizations collect and process the data. This helps to account for the differences in focus and in coverage. These have included: - County Business Patterns - Dun & Bradstreet Market Locator - ICC Rail Carload Waybill Survey (1992) 2 - Truckload Movement Sample (1986/87) - Truck Interview Data supported by Washington DOT - Truck Traffic Counts as reported in the GIS maintained by PSRC - Maritime Flows (as reported by the Ports of Seattle and Tacoma) - Shipper Survey of the Region (administered by PSRC) These data are incomplete and uncoordinated and have significant faults in both coverage and in detail. This data is, nevertheless, the only data available for the Puget Sound area, and consequently, its faults must be dealt with. The strength of the approach used here is that by combining all of the sources within the framework defined by the flows developed from the County Business Patterns a coherent picture of freight movements into, out of and through the region can be developed for the first time. To attempt to accomplish the same objective with a single survey questionnaire would be unworkable, expensive and probably unsuccessful as well. Manufacturing Flows Developed from the County Business Patterns County Business Patterns (CBP) is an annual reporting by the Bureau of the Census of the number of establishments operating in each county by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) and by size of establishment (number of employees). This data is available on CD ROM for every county in the United States. We have used the data for the four counties in the Puget Sound Region to assemble economic information on the region. The most recent data available is currently that for 1992. Data available at the 4-digit SIC level includes the number of employees, total wages and number of establishments by size for ten different firm sizes. This data is particularly valuable as a data source because of its direct relationship with the economy of the region. The annual updating of this data is also a source of strength, because it maintains a historical record which can be examined for inconsistencies over time. The industrial detail that is available is more than that available from other sources. Its only drawback is the lack of additional geographic detail. It appears that this will be remedied in the future by the availability, in late 1995, of the same industrial detail at greater levels of geographic detail. We have extended the utility of the CBP data by developing an estimate of the freight flows into and out of the establishments in each 4-digit SIC category. This was done using the value-added coefficients from the National Income and Product Accounts to develop an estimate of the output of each industry category in dollars. This dollar figure is converted into pounds using Transmode's Commodity Attribute File, which contains the value per pound of products at the 5-digit SIC level. Ultimately the output can be expressed in truckload equivalents of annual production. A similar process is used to estimate the amount of input required to produce this amount of output, again in truckload equivalents (TLES) per year. Retail Flows Developed from the National Income Accounts This process using the CBP works well for developing flows for the goods-producing sectors. It does not, however, hold for the wholesale and retail sectors, where the value-added coefficient reflects the wages earned by workers in the distribution or retail business, not the amount of goods handled. These figures are estimated using the final demand vector of the national input- output table. Final demand includes personal consumption, direct investment, purchases by government and changes in the balances caused by inventory adjustments or foreign trade. The population of each of the counties in the region allows us to estimate the amount of truckload equivalents that are required to serve the population of the region. These numbers have been assembled for each of the counties in the region. A summary of the results of these two sets of computations -- manufacturing and retail -for each of the counties is shown in Figure I on the next page. These tables show that the freight inbound to manufacturing or wholesale distribution operations within the area is 6,644 TLEs per day and the freight moving outbound from producers is 5,334 TLEs per day. The detailed output of the truckload estimation process at the 4-digit SIC level is shown in Appendix A. 3 Click HERE for graphic. The result provides an overall framework for developing freight flows into and out of the region. It is important to note that the total number of truckload equivalents in and out includes freight movements by all modes and from all points. It also includes some under-counting because shipments into the wholesale sector will subsequently be delivered to final destinations in the retail sector, to one of the goods producing industries, or to a service establishment. Further, truckload equivalents, or TLEs as we will call them, will frequently involve the use of -smaller vehicles for delivery, in some cases (local delivery straight trucks and minivans), and larger vehicles in others (rail cars, air freighters, barges or bulk ocean carriers). These figures will serve as a framework within which the movements for each of the individual modes can be understood. Before attempting to rationalize the overall movements we will first assemble the available data from each of the modes. We will start with the rail flows. ICC Rail Carload Waybill Sample The Association of American Railroads maintains a stratified random sample of movements by rail for all of the Class I Railroads. This data is available to individual states for use in transportation planning for all of the rail movements originating, terminating or passing through the state. We have, under the auspices of the Washington State DOT, received permission to access this data for 1992 and have used it to examine rail flows into and out of the Puget Sound Region. Each observation in the data contains information on the number of trips which that observation represents. This allows the total flows to be estimated by carrier, type of movement, origin, destination, commodity and a variety of other variables of interest. We have developed estimates of the flows into and out of the region by each. The results are shown in Figure 2 below. Note that even though the figures for containers are broken out separately, it is not possible to distinguish between domestic and international containers. That distinction can be developed only after additional information is available from the ports. Figure 2 Waybill Estimates of the Carloads, Containers and Trailers Into and Out of the PSRC Region in TLEs/day Total Total Trailers Containers Intermodal Carloads Units TLEs Inbound 526 1,596 2,122 553 2,675 12,822 Outbound 228 1,396 1,624 445 2,069 9,900 Additional tables showing rail movements by commodity, by region of origin and/or destination and by major gateway are shown in the appendix to this report. 4 Truckload Movement Sample The truckload movement sample is a sample of longhaul truckload movements developed by interviewing truckload drivers at more than 20 truckstops located strategically across the country. These interviews are weighted using passing counts at each of the interview locations and an expansion factor is developed to expand the observation to the universe of all longhaul movements. The database created from this sample ran be queried to determine the total number of loaded longhaul truckload movements coming into and out of the Puget Sound Region. The result of this analysis for the region is shown in Figure 3 below. Figure 3 Longhaul Truckload Movements/day Into and Out of the Puget Sound Region by Region of Origin or Destination Region Inbound Outbound Northeast 94 68 Mid Atlantic 101 58 Midwest 105 93 Southeast 111 75 No. Plains 89 27 Southwest 129 39 Mountain States 111 119 West Coast 640 412 Totals 1,380 891 These figures could be underestimated. Consequently we will make a concerted effort to corroborate these figures with other statistics which are available. Truck Interview Data supported by Washington DOT The most effective information is that which records truck traffic with its origins and destinations. The Gillis Group is developing a set of origin and destination data for the State of Washington Department of Transportation. These origin and destination data have been developed by interviewing truck drivers at various points in the Puget Sound Region as well as in eastern Washington State. Preliminary results are now available on U.S. 395 at Deer Park and at Umatilla, on I-90 at Tokio and at Cle Elum and on I-5 at Federal Way. Once the final results are available these data can be used to supplement the longhaul truckload data described in the previous section. It is expected that the data will reveal a great deal more about intermediate length trips, such as the shorthaul extraregional traffic described above. Since the exact nature of the data is still unknown, it is difficult to speculate on what additional information will become available once the survey can be used. WSDOT Truck Traffic Counts The Federal Highway Administration maintains a national database of highway conditions in each of the states in the form of a computerized database known as the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). This database uses traffic counts and physical inventories of individual highway segments in each of the states to monitor the conditions on the nation's highway system. Although the data is only a sample and not a complete inventory of conditions at the national level the database is extensive with more than 300,000 records nationwide. The data is also used as input to the Highway Economic Reporting System (HERS) which develops cost benefit analysis of alternative improvement using as input the physical and traffic conditions reported in the HPMS. The Washington State Department of Transportation is beginning to establish continuous traffic counters on all of the major highways coming in and going out of the region in support of the Highway Performance Monitoring System. The information which is currently available from all sources has been compiled into a map showing estimated traffic levels on each of the major facilities. For our purposes we have converted the traffic levels into the number of trucks per day in each direction crossing a screen line around the perimeter of the region. A map showing these figures is shown as Figure 4 on the next page. We have also summed the counts crossing our imaginary screen line to obtain an estimate of the number of trucks entering and leaving the area each day. These figures are summed in the table 5 Click HERE for graphic. 6 below. The low resolution recorded in the count information allows rather poor definition of the total. We have chosen to show this as a range. Volume Levels per Day on major Highways Entering and Leaving the Area Highway Vol(low) Vol(high) SR 99 2,000 2,400 I 5n 2,000 4,000 I 405 1,500 1,500 SR 520 560 560 I 90 2,000 4,000 SR 900 560 560 SR 169 560 560 SR 18 2,000 2,400 SR 516 2,000 2,400 SR 167 2,000 2,400 I 5s 2,000 4,000 SR 16 2,000 2,400 Totals 19,180 27,180 There are more than 4000 trucks per day in each direction on I-5 near Federal Way, nearly one-third of which originate or terminate in Tacoma. Approximately two-thirds of the northbound trucks have destinations in the Seattle area. Maritime Flows Data concerning the flows through the Ports of Seattle and Tacoma show more than 2 million twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs) flowing through the two ports in both directions during 1992. Of this total almost 400,000 TEUs moved through the separate port facilities serving carriers moving to and from Alaska and Hawaii. This translates into about 2,100 containers each direction, most of which were full. Of this total more than half of the inbound containers had destinations which were reached by rail, mostly by doublestack rail car over the rail systems and connections of the Burlington Northern Railroad or the Union Pacific Railroad. In the outbound direction these figures were approximately reversed, with 73 percent of the loaded outbound movements originating on the west coast, mostly within the Puget Sound Region. The balance of loaded movements came from the interior of the United States by rail doublestack. The results for each of the two ports are summarized in Figure 5 on the following page. These numbers can be coordinated with the figures by rail to produce a combined picture of all container movements into and out of the region by noting that the rail carload waybill statistics for 1992 show 1,596 loaded container movements inbound to the Seattle/Tacoma area and 1,396 outbound from the region. Since over time inbound containers must balance with outbound movements, the difference can be ---accounted for by adding 200 outbound empty containers per day to the outbound movement. The overall result is shown in the diagram of Figure 6 below. Click HERE for graphic. 7 Click HERE for graphic. 8 A similar set of coordinated figures can be obtained by observing the bulk flows into and out of the Puget Sound region by ship and by rail. These can be obtained from the 1992 port flows resented above. The result is summarized in the diagram of Figure 7 below. Click HERE for graphic. Bulk movement include both grain and logs as well as petroleum products shipments. Specialized movements of the tail sections of the Boeing 777 aircraft being manufactured in Fredrickson are not included in this total. It is interesting to note that the Boeing Company delivered $15 billion worth of aircraft and parts to foreign buyers in 1990.2 This amounted to 60.1% of Washington's foreign exports in 1990. These exports were flown out of the region. Shipper Survey of the Region The survey of 1,100 shippers conducted early this year has also contributed to our overall understanding of freight flows in the region, although it was clearly a pilot survey without sufficient survey observations to establish statistically valid results on the strength of the sample alone. Our understanding of the role of a shipper survey, the manner in which it can be expanded and the areas in which the survey should attempt to develop data were greatly enhanced. There are three areas in which the survey produced results which contribute to the overall picture of freight activity flowing into, out of and within the region. The first is the flow into the region by mode from origins outside of the region. The second is the flow out of the region by mode to destinations outside of the region. The third is an elaboration of the distribution functions that take place Within the region. The first two of these areas are examined in Figures 8 and 9. ------------------------------- 2 The Economic and Social Importance of Air Transportation for Washington, Dye Management Group, Inc. for the Washington State Air Transportation Commission, October 19, 1992 9 Click HERE for graphic. 10 Click HERE for graphic. 11 It should be noted that the survey results are those of the largest manufacturers and distribution operations so they are not representative of establishments generally. Nevertheless, they show that movements into and out of the region are dominated by truckload carriers and that a substantial proportion of the movements are to and from points Within the Puget Sound Region. Some of the findings of the survey are at odds with the conclusions reached by examining the data from non-survey sources. This will be elaborated on further in the section on findings from the survey. The survey addressed one area which has proven to be extraordinarily important to understanding goods movements within the region, that is the characteristics of individual distribution fleets within the region. For those shippers surveyed some 88 indicated that the establishment being survey was primarily a wholesale distribution warehouse with delivery vehicles entering and leaving. Of the 88, about 65 used their own delivery fleets. These 65 fleets housed 919 vehicles. The average fleet size is 14 vehicles. These served a reported 10,733 establishments - about 11.7 per vehicle. The average number of stops per vehicle per day was 12.75, indicating that some establishments are visited more than once a day. This number varied dramatically from a high of 60 per day for UPS to 1 per day for two firms on the list. The average vehicle traveled about 100 miles per day -- which yields 25,000 miles per year. A variety of delivery vehicles were used. Most indicated that they operated all three types of equipment - vans, straight trucks and tractor semitrailers. A table displaying these results is shown in the appendix. Another 20 respondents indicated that although they operated a wholesale distribution facility that no vehicles were based at the site. These sites were served by common carrier fleets. These sites, as well as those with vehicles, had warehouse space for storage averaging 64,000 square feet, with some ranging up to 625,000 and one to 850,000 square feet. These results will be used in to assist us in developing the total number of truck trips later in this report. Transport Interactions by Sector It is important to recognize that the various sectors making up the economy within a region tend to interact with one another in particular ways. These interactions are simple but powerful in explaining the operations of the transportation system. The Goods Producing Sectors First, the goods-producing sectors, which include agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining and manufacturing, are the only sectors which require transportation of their output. The output of the construction sector does not require transport because the product is typically infrastructure which is fixed in place and cannot easily be moved. Bridges, roads, dams, airports and buildings all fall into this category. Likewise, the service sectors, which include finance, banking, insurance, health care, education, entertainment, and government do not normally require transportation of their output. Transportation, another service, does not normally require transportation of its output. Wholesale and retail sales are a special category. Their output does require that transportation services be performed, but the nature of the transportation is quite specialized, as we shall describe below. In an urban area, sectors such as agriculture and forestry can usually be ignored. Such output as there is can be ignored. Mining, because it includes sand and gravel for construction, cannot be ignored. The Wholesale Retail Sectors Most sectors of the economy do require transportation of their inputs. The transportation required for the inputs of some sectors, however, are minimal--such as most of the establishments in the services, i.e. education, banking, insurance or entertainment. For the retail sector virtually all of the inputs come from the wholesale distribution sector. The wholesale distribution sector gets most of its inputs from other cities by longhaul transportation. Some 12 relatively small amounts do come from producing industries in the same region. These include bakeries, soft drink bottlers, the distributors of petroleum products and other products produced locally. The manufacturing sector gets its principal inputs from other cities, but it can also get them from local manufacturers, or from the wholesale distribution sector. Agriculture, forestry and fishing get their inputs from the manufacturing sector. Construction is somewhat of a special case. There are many manufactured inputs which are used in construction, but there is also the heavy use of sand and gravel, which comes from the mining sector, ready-mix concrete which comes from the glass, clay and stone products industry, and the movement of construction wastes which are involved. Product Flow Between Sectors The movement of goods between the producing sectors and the consuming sectors tends to occur in a very particular manner. Large manufacturers buy their inputs directly from the producer of the input. For their smaller inputs they rely on a wholesale distributor. In fact, large users in any sector probably operate in the same way. The retail sector, which caters to individual consumers, obtains virtually all of its inputs from wholesale distributors. Very large retailers tend to operate their own internal wholesale distribution operations. The result is a set of flows between the sectors of the economy in an urban area which can be characterized rather simply as shown in the diagram of Figure 10 below. Click HERE for graphic. Most of the major inputs into the goods-producing sectors come from outside the region and arrive by longhaul modes of transportation. This includes both raw materials, assembled components and manufactured inputs. Most of the inputs into the wholesale distribution sector also come from outside the region. By contrast, inputs into the retail sector come virtually 100 percent from the wholesale sector. There are clearly exceptions to this very simplified schema. Raw material inputs used for the making of ready-mix concrete include sand, gravel and water--all typically produced locally. Obviously, some manufacturing operations locate within a particular area to be close to their principal suppliers and some raw materials are produced locally. Others, like petroleum products, are shipped in by pipeline (the flows by pipeline have not been presented here). Their wholesale to retail movements are handled by the gasoline and fuel oil tanker trucks seen in most urban areas. Water, an input into many products, is usually delivered by pipeline. 13 The transportation of goods between sectors in the urban area is handled virtually entirely by truck. For longhaul transportation, rail, intermodal, barge, ship and air all play important roles in addition to truck. Furthermore, the nature of the trucking operation is quite different for longhaul trucking than it is for shorthaul. It typically involves different carriers, different equipment and a different operating style. Much of the urban trucking is of the "delivery van" type. A truck, loaded with shipments to several receivers, moves from one to the next making these deliveries. The equipment is frequently a small straight track, a tractor pulling a short trailer or a delivery van. There are also full-sized tractor trailer combinations operating in the urban environment, so it is impossible to characterize the urban truck fleet as using a single vehicle type as is common in the longhaul segment of the industry. Referring back to the diagram of Figure 10, it is clear that the goods in the producing and the wholesale distribution sectors account for most of the longhaul transportation coming into the urban area. Outbound longhaul transportation is devoted primarily to handling the outputs of the goods-producing sectors. Shorthaul extraregional transportation handles the transport of locally produced raw materials, delivery to retail operations served from wholesale distribution facilities within the area, and some drayage of intermodal trailers and sea containers to and from points located outside the immediate urban area. Local transportation of goods is primarily the delivery of goods from wholesale to retail facilities, but it also includes all of the drayage, parcel, airfreight and LTL pickup and delivery operations, along with the plethora of service vehicles typically found in the urban area. Constructing an Overview of the Transport Flows in the PSRC Area We can use these simplified assumptions of flows within the urban area described above along with the available statistics to reconstruct an overview of the transport flows which occur in the Puget Sound Region. A number of rather sweeping assumptions are involved, and the outcome is far from being perfect, but the result can be useful for policy formulation. Consequently, we will proceed to develop a preliminary picture of the flows within the region. First, it is useful to summarize the longhaul transportation figures developed from each of the modes. Working in truckload equivalents (TLEs) per day, the numbers are shown in Figure 11 below. Click HERE for graphic. The shorthaul inbound and outbound movements, again in TLES, are the residual between the longhaul movements and the total inbound and outbound requirements produced using the County Business Patterns. They are shown in Figure 12 below. Click HERE for graphic. The first conclusion to be drawn from the basic figures presented above from the County Business Patterns and the longhaul modes of transportation is the development of the number of direct (longhaul) movements versus indirect (shorthaul and local) deliveries to the principal sectors. These are shown in Figure 13 presented on the next page. 14 Figure 13 Breakout of Inbound Movements/day by Direct-Indirect Direct from Indirect Outside the through Sector Region Wholesale Totals Manufacturing 4,271 1,028 5,299 Wholesale 2,373 2,373 Retail 1,345 1,345 Total 6,644 2,373 9,017 Total Deliveries/day = 6,644 direct + 2,373 truckloads @ 12.75 deliveries/truckload = 36,900 The number of full truckload equivalent movements for the four counties in the Puget Sound Region is 6,646 TLEs inbound and 5,334 TLEs outbound per day. The inbound movements include some direct movements and some indirect. The 6,646 inbound TLEs per day include 5,299 TLEs into the manufacturing sector, but not all of these are longhaul direct. Some come from the wholesale distribution sector. An estimate of the number served by the wholesale distribution sector is 2,373 TLEs per day, developed during expansion of the County Business Patterns. If we assume that all of the retail sector (1,345 TLEs) is served by shorthaul and local transportation through the wholesale distribution industry, this leaves 1,028 TLEs for indirect (shorthaul and local) delivery to manufacturers from the wholesale distribution sector. If we assume that all of the indirect shorthaul and local deliveries are made by truck (which seems plausible enough) and that each delivery truck makes 12.75 deliveries (which is the average number of deliveries made by a truck in the shipper survey) the 2,373 wholesale TLEs per day expand into 30,256 actual point- to-point movements on the street on an average day. When added to the 4,271 direct manufacturing movements and the 2,373 direct wholesale movements the total comes to 36,900 daily trips on the network. Note that this still does not include through trips. Developing a Clearer Picture of Truck Trips Turning next to the movement by mode of transport, it is possible to use the truck flow figures from the traffic density map of the region presented earlier in conjunction with the total figures developed above to estimate the number of truck trips moving through the area. The number of longhaul truckload movements crossing the imaginary cordon line circling the region is 1,380 per day. To this must be added the 697 shorthaul inbound movements, some of which will be performed in smaller trucks. Longer delivery movements could account for between one-third to one-half of the 30,256 deliveries developed above. Longhaul drayage of maritime and rail intermodal outside of the cordon could be as much as two- thirds of these trips. The total of trips is added to the 2,312 longhaul and shorthaul movements just computed to yield truck trips per day crossing the cordon. This leaves between 2,019 and 4,976 through trips to make up the difference. Note that this figure does not include local deliveries which take place within the cordon. The computations are shown in Figure 14. Click HERE for graphic. 15 2 Summarizing the Movements The overall summary of movements is presented in the schematic diagram shown in Figure 15 on the next page. The one most striking aspect of the analysis is the very high proportion of the movements involved in delivery type movements. With only 1,380 longhaul truckload movements inbound and 891 loaded longhaul truckload movements outbound longhaul truckload movements account for less than 10 percent of the deliveries made in the region. This does not mean that they are unimportant, just that even if longhaul trucks were completely eliminated, there would still be very significant local truck traffic making deliveries and performing service functions. The other striding aspect of the analysis is the importance of intermodal transportation to the region. lntermodal trailers and containers account for a larger volume of movements into and out of the region than does longhaul truckload. In addition, is the importance of intermodal containers involved participation in the region's foreign trade to the economy of the Puget Sound Region. The size of this trade has important implications for those transportation policies which facilitate the handling of intermodal traffic and the economics of port operations within the region. Click HERE for graphic. Policy Implications Most of the questions raised in the memo of October 13 can now be answered. For example, through trips make up between 5 and 21 percent of the trips crossing the cordon line surrounding the area depending on whether the lower or the higher estimate of total trips is used. 16 The proportion of the total travel which is local travel (both origins and destinations in the area) is between 53 and 44 percent depending on the proportion of through truck travel. Long distance trips, by contrast, make up only about 9 to 10 percent of the terminations. The breakout by type of trip is summarized in Figure 16. Click HERE for graphic. Containers constitute a major component of total longhaul trips into and out of the area. Not only are they involved in international movement, but domestic containers are a major portion of the longhaul trips to and from the eastern part of the United States. Some 1007 domestic containers per day are destined to the Puget Sound area, along with 526 piggyback trailers. Some 830 of the inbound containers are destined for export. There are only 228 trailers per day outbound with 196 domestic containers. On the port side some 1,597 containers per day are outbound from the region and 830 containers per day are inbound. Flows to and from Alaska account for another 400 tons per day in and out, some of which is containerized. The destinations of products shipped out of the Puget Sound Region by truck are varied, but almost half are to points on the west coast of the U.S. The mountain states are the next in terms of product destination. On the inbound side the breakout is similar. The west coast is highest, followed by the mountain states. Origins and destinations for the other regions differ between origin and destination. Refer again to the summary diagram shown earlier. Origins and destinations of rail traffic are somewhat different than those for highway travel. The midwest dominates both origins and destinations, accounting for almost half of both. This is due to the amount of traffic that is interchanged through gateways in the midwest, particularly in Chicago. The distribution of trips by region is detailed in the summary diagram shown earlier. In answer to questions concerning the lines of business which originate and terminate the highest volume of traffic, the result is shown by the expansion of the County Business Patterns. It shows that SIC 24, Lumber and Wood Products, accounts for the most, followed by SIC 32, Stone, Clay and Glass, SIC 20, Food Products, SIC 504, Motor Vehicles and Parts, SIC 514, Groceries and SIC 510, Paper and Paper Products. The importance of in-transit processing is difficult to assess from the results of the data available plus the Shipper Survey. It is clear, however, that much of the industry located in the Puget Sound Region is related to the import/export trade which flows through the region. Even such basic native industries as the lumber, paper and aircraft manufacturing industries have all developed strong ties to foreign trade and would be negatively impacted if the flows through the ports of the region were to be curtailed or economically disadvantaged. The Shipper Survey The Shipper Survey conducted early this year has revealed some useful findings, many of which will be important to the development of a comprehensive relational database for the region. The survey included both a mail-out, mail-back shipper survey supplemented by telephone calls to clarify the answers to some questions and to improve the yield of completed returns and a series of interviews with some of the larger shippers and receivers in the area (this included the Boeing Company, Weyerhaeuser and the Ports of Seattle and Tacoma.) It also included working with corporate members of the Roundtable who contributed significantly to our knowledge of freight movements in the Puget Sound Region. 17 The area for which it is most difficult to gather reliable data concerns local travel. Fairly complete data exists for longhaul interregional travel by rail and by ship. Reliable information concerning travel by truck is harder to acquire, but by using the estimates of trip originations and terminations developed from the County Business Patterns, it is possible to develop information on total trip originations and terminations. This can be extrapolated to provide estimates of both longhaul and shorthaul travel. Clearly, the most poorly understood areas are shorthaul extraregional travel and local travel. Although this subject area was addressed in the current survey, the results are based on fewer observations than desirable from a statistical viewpoint, and some of the questions appear to have been poorly understood by the respondents. As a consequence, the results are less useful than initially anticipated. An entire survey focused on this area appears to be needed. Nevertheless, the contribution of the survey to the information from the other sources was invaluable. For future versions of the Shipper Survey, it is important to design the survey carefully to allow easy coding of the results before placing the observations into the relational database. In this case less care was taken in the design to make it easy to code, and this has resulted in more time spent in recording the survey results to make the resulting database easier to work with. More time spent in the design at the outset will result in less time required to place the survey into the computer for analysis. We now understand from our work with the Shipper Survey how to expand the data obtained from the survey sample to the universe of all freight movements in the region. This can be done by factoring up the results using the number of employees in the sampled establishments within each SIC by the total in the industry as reported by the County Business Patterns. The expanded data will then represent the population total. The more responses that are obtained, the more accurately the results can be estimated. Another area in which lessons have been learned concerns the amount of information that can be developed using a mail-out, send- back survey. Most respondents answered the questions hurriedly without fully understanding them in some cases. The survey produced some responses in which the answer was clearly wrong, or inconsistent with other responses. The questions must not only be worded unambiguously, but the concepts must be simple and a certain amount of redundancy must be built into the question so that the coded input can be checked for correctness. Another major lesson learned is that sufficient time should be budgeted for editing of the data as it is coded and input into the database. One cannot expect that the information will be correct as it is received on the raw survey form. Time, and budget, must be allocated for reviewing the input, calling the respondent back to clarify missing or inconsistent responses and for general checking of the consistency of the data. It would also be useful to develop certain computer consistency checks which can automatically determine both the internal consistency of a given response and the overall consistency of the aggregated data. It is also clear from the work done to-date that the area which is in need of the most additional information is local distribution. The majority of the trips within the metropolitan area are from the local distribution of goods received initially in wholesale distribution facilities. This portion of the.traffic within an urban area is likely to continue to grow in the future as companies, eager to minimize the cost of carrying inventory on the retail segment of their operation move to a regional distribution center serving literally hundreds of retail facilities. The same phenomenon is occurring in that segment of the market serving the manufacturing segment. Wholesale distribution facilities allow manufacturing firms to purchase the lesser used inputs at a slight markup over the cost of direct purchase from the original manufacturer, but at a substantial saving in capital carrying on that direct purchase. We need to know the number of wholesale suppliers that are in the area, the amount of warehouse space they have access to, and the number of trucks available to perform product distribution. Ultimately, it is important to know how a wholesale distributor organizes his operations--how many locations are served, the average size of the shipment to each and the number of stops made by each of the delivery vehicles in a day's operations. A better understanding of these factors will make it possible for us to construct a model of the distribution 18 process that is responsive to changes in the region's transportation network. This will allow regional transportation planners to test the impact of alternative transportation policies on freight transport in the area. It will also facilitate the objective evaluation of alternative infrastructure projects. Conclusions This study has used freight flow data from a number of different and independent sources to build an overall picture of freight flows in the Puget Sound Region. Although the data are from different sources and are incomplete and in some ways incompatible, the use of the County Business Patterns as the unifying element allows the different sources to be drawn together and used jointly to present a unified picture of freight movements as a whole. To accomplish this requires a certain amount of redundancy in the data plus the strong unifying force of a single comprehensive source of economic data-in this case the County Business Patterns. The shipper survey developed as a part of this work has also served a useful role in filling in the missing elements and in informing us of the major differences within the Puget Sound region. The data developed here are useful for policy analysis in their own right. They will also serve as a coordinating element in the relational database for the freight sector which is being assembled by the PSRC for policy analysis and evaluation. The databases discussed here will all be found in the relational database and can be used for additional, more detailed investigations in the freight sector. Future work will use the information developed using the Truckload Movement Estimator to develop freight trip generation and attraction rates on a trips per employee' basis for different types of land uses. End Notes ------------------------------ 1 The data in Table 1, p.p. was computed directly from the County Business Patterns and the final demand vector of the National Input/Output table using Transmode's Truckload Movement Estimator program with works directly from the 1992 CBP files on CD-ROM. This program provides multiple estimates of some of the elements shown. Consequently, it is important to discriminate between the elements to avoid 'double-counting' Total inbound longhaul moves measured in truckload equivalents (TLES) = Mfgr. + Pers. Cons. + Gross Invest. + Govt. Expend. Wholesale TLEs = Final Demand + a portion of Mfgr. Demand + Constr. Retail movements reported in the table are not in TLES, but in actual vehicles (where the mix of vehicles consists of conventional tractor trailers, tractors with 27-foot urban trailers and conventional delivery vans and minivans. Longhaul outbound moves (in TLES) = Mining + Mfgr. Shorthaul movements consist of Construction (includes waste materials) + Wholesale moves (which are mostly local). 19 Appendices Characteristics of the Individual Distribution Fleets from the Shipper Survey Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Information From of the Railroad Truck Modal Databases Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Truckloads/Day Into and Out of the Puget Sound Region by Origin and Destination Region Inbound Outbound 1-digit truckloads/ truckloads/ SPLC Region day day 1 Northeast 94 68 2 Mid Atlantic 101 58 3 Midwest 105 93 4 Southeast 111 75 5 No. Plains 89 27 6 Southwest 129 39 7 Mountain States 111 119 8 West Coast 640 412 Totals 1,380 891 Page 1 Truckloads/Day Into and Out of the Puget Sound Region by Commodity Inbound Outbound 2-digit truckloads/ truckloads/ STCC Commodity Description day day 1 Farm Products 93 25 8 Forest Products 0 7 14 Nonmetalic Minerals 3 6 20 Food Products 293 172 21 Tobacco Products 4 0 22 Textile Mill Products 8 0 23 Apparel 11 0 24 Lumber/Wood Products 2 67 25 Furniture/Fixtures 39 10 26 Pulp/Paper Products 103 75 27 Printed Matter 18 0 28 Chemicals 107 14 29 Petroleum/Coal Products 47 11 30 Rubber/Plastic Products 39 25 32 Clay, Concrete, Glass, etc. 56 48 33 Primary Metal Products 69 31 34 Fabricated Metal Products 40 76 35 Machinery 50 29 36 Electrical Mach./Equip 41 45 37 Transportation Equipment 67 72 38 Instruments/Photo Goods 1 4 39 Misc Manufacturing 17 39 40 Waste/Scrap Materials 12 4 41 Misc Freight Shipments 134 99 42 Containers 0 6 43 Mail 19 0 46 Misc Mixed Shipments 8 0 47 Small packaged Frt Ships 77 15 49 Hazardous Materials 0 7 50 22 4 1380 891 Page 2 Estimated Number of Truckload Equivalents In and Out of 4-Digit SIC Establishment for Each County in the Puget Sound Region Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Dun & Bradstreet Information for Establishments in the Puget Sound Region Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic.
