-- PRECIPITATION AND TYPE -- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS GREEN BAY WI 230 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOME CUMULUS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ALONG LAKE BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THATS ABOUT IT. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL WARMING WHICH IS KEEPING CUMULUS FROM BUILDING MUCH. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BUT THINK THAT IT WOULD BE ISOLATED SO LEFT IT OUT OF FORECAST.. ------------------------ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS CLEVELAND OHIO 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005 .SHORT TERM (UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON)... THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO LIFT. UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH REMNANTS OF CINDY WERE MOVING INTO UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TAMDAR DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND DRYING OUT AROUND 10,000 FEET...WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. LI VALUES AROUND 1...SO THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPPER LVL SYS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MAY BE ENOUGH TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN AREAS... ------------------------ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS MARQUETTE MI 1015 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2005 ...MORNING TAMDAR SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THINGS TO BE TOO CAPPED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP UNLESS TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED... ------------------------ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS MARQUETTE MI 1020 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2005 .DISCUSSION... ONLY A FEW MINOR FORECAST CHANGES NEEDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATE. MAIN FOCUS IS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT IS CURRENTLY FIRING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TOWARD THE DAYBREAK HOURS. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ISOLATED AND SLOWED THE ONSET AS INCREASING LIFT WRESTLES WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AS SEEN ON KSAW TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. ------------------------ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS LINCOLN IL 830 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHAT TO DO WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LACK OF CU BUILDUPS TODAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS INDICATIVE OF CAPPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... WHICH IS CONFIRMED IN TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM PEORIA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ------------------------ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS SPRINGFIELD MO 400 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005 PRECIPITATION WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE DUMPED OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE A DRY SLOT OVERTOOK THE AREA. A MINI-TROWAL OR DEFORMATION ZONE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SPECIAL 06Z SOUNDING AS WELL AS A LATE EVENING ACARS SOUNDING FROM SGF INDICATED AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER HOVERING NEAR FREEZING FROM 925MB UP TO 800MB. ENHANCED ASCENT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS LIKELY LEADING TO SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING AND HAS CAUSED THE RAIN TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO WET SNOW WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. BRIGHT BAND ON KSGF 88D HAS BEEN STEADILY COLLAPSING INWARD... SO PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW AT THE AIRPORT SHORTLY. ----------------------- Forum posting from NWS Marquette Yesterday morning (December 30th) at the Marquette NWS office, we constantly looked at the latest TAMDAR soundings to get a measure of the amount of both dry air over the Western Great Lakes Region and how warm the air was aloft. The reason for this was the concern for a period of freezing rain across Upper Michigan, and whether some of the precipitation would start off as snow or sleet due to evaporative cooling. Surface observations told us when the freezing rain would transition over to rain, however the frequent soundings gave us more of an idea how long the freezing rain would last. Because the soundings showed potential for a couple of hours of freezing rain with little in the way of snow or sleet, we upgraded the winter weather advisories to ice storm warnings. These warnings would eventually verify during the afternoon, with reports of anywhere from 0.25 to 0.5 inch of ice along with plenty of accidents on the roads. ------------------------ Comments from NWS La Crosse On December 5, 2004, there was some question on the precipitation type during the night. The models were indicating that the warm air would advance northward into the region...but the TAMDAR flights that evening showed that the cold air was holding.  As a result, the snow changing to all rain forecast was changed to all snow and accumulations were added to the forecast.  The area ended up seeing all snow during this event; thus, the TAMDAR data proved to be a very valuable data during this event.