FXUS61 KBTV 301634
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1235 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2003

CRNT: BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PLENTY OF S/W ACTVTY (ALBEIT WEAKER) 
AND LLVL LAPSE RATES STILL STEEP BUT LESS SO AT MID LVLS AND 
DRIER AS WELL. AGAIN...MORE DIURNAL CLDS WITH PERHAPS A MTN SPRINKLE 
FOR MUCH OF FA BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW OVR LAKE ONTARIO WITH 
SFC-H8 DFRNTL OF 13-14Z AND ABV MNTD S/W ACTVTY...SOME LAKE EFFECT 
(OR  ENHANCED) -SHRA ACTVTY THAT MAY SPILL INTO ST LWRNC CTY/SRN 
ADRNDKS.

SHORT TERM: PRETTY MUCH WHAT WAS DISCUSSED YDY...THE NEXT STG S/W 
DIGS INTO LW TROF TNGT/WED TO BACK FLOW ACRS FA WED DELIVER CAA 
ALOFT INITIALLY WITH FVRBL FETCH OFF ERN GRT LAKES FOR MORE 
CLDS/SHRA DVLPG WED...ESP NRN NY.

MUCH OF PCPN TNGT/WED WL BE LAKE EFFECT AS TMP DFRNCS ARE 15C AND 25C
BTWN LAKE/H8 AND LAKE/H7 RESPECTIVELY WITH PRETTY MUCH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WSW FLOW ACRS LAKE ONTARIO. GFS AGAIN IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH QPF 
ASSOC WITH THE LEADING S/W IN SRN PORTION OF BROAD TROF AND AS 
ELUDED TO YDY APPEARS OVERDONE BUT WL CONCEDE PSBL MRNG SPRINKLE/ 
-SHRA BUT THE MAIN FOCUS IS LAKE EFFECT AND GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO 
FA AS TROF DEEPENS...FLOW BACKS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT DESTABILIZES 
ATMOS.

STG S/W AND BASE OF TROF SWINGS ACRS ERN GRT LAKES WED NGT AND THU 
WITH REINFORCING COLD FNT AND COLDEST AIR OF SEASON AND LOTS OF COLD 
INSTABILTY WITH H8 TMPS -3 TO -5C AND H10-H5 THICKNESS ARD 5300M
AND FRZG LVL DROPPING TO 1-1.5K. THUS...MUCH ADVERTISED -SHRA/-SHSN 
STL LOOKS GUD AND MAX TMPS >15F BLO NORMAL.

THIS S/W AND TROF EXITS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH FOR MAINLY DRY LATE THU 
NGT-MIDDAY FRI BUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND SFC HIGH MVG S ALLOWS FOR 
MORE SSW FLOW OVR GRT LAKES AND WITH THE NEXT S/W DIVING INTO GRT 
LAKES FRI NGT REESTABLISHING THE TROF AXIS...MORE BACKING AND MORE 
LAKE EFFECT ACTVTY FRI AFTN/NGT AND EVENTUALLY ANTHR CD FNT FOR THE 
WKND AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/SHSN ACTVTY.

LONG TERM: (SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY)...MDL DIFFERENCES FOR THE 
SHORTWAVE WHICH APPROACHES WESTERN CWA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE 
WEEKEND. LATEST CANADIAN AND AVN/GFS MDLS SHOW ANY PRECIP WITH 
SYSTEM MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARDS NY ZONES INTO LATE SAT/EARLY 
SUN...WITH PRECIP ONLY REACHING CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION BY 06Z SUN. 
THE MRF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING PRECIP WELL INTO VT BY 
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW SPINS AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST AWAY 
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ALL THREE MODELS DO SHOW BULK OF PRECIP TO 
LIFT NORTH BEFORE MOVING INTO CWA. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP LOOKS TO 
CLEAR BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND 
MOISTURE LEFT OVER CLIPPING NORTHERN ZONES. CLEARS OUT ON MONDAY 
INTO TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE SE 
U.S. FOR SAT INTO SUN. WILL GO A "BLEND" OF THE THREE MDLS FOR 
PRECIP TIMING AND ADJUST TEMPS...ETC. ACCORDINGLY.

.BTV...NONE.

.SHORT TERM - SLW
.LONG TERM - JN