FXUS61 KBUF 230104
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
904 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2003

HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST ALMOST AS IS WITH MUCH CLOUDINESS AROUND.
RADAR KBUF AND KTYX ARE SHOWING MORE AP BUT SOME MINOR SPRINKLE 
FLURRY TYPE PRECIPITATION AND SO HAVE ADDED TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST ALL 
ZONES MAKING IT MORE FLURRIES BUT FLURRY/SPRINKLE CLOSE TO THE LAKES. 

THE UPPER 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE -8C -9C AND MM5 SUNY STONYBROOK 
SHOWS A SLIGHT READ OUTOVER FORECAST AREA IN SPOTS WITH A SMALL LINE 
OF LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ONTARIO OVER PARTS OF WAYNE, NORTHERN CAYUGA, 
AND OSWEGO COUNTIES BUT NORTH WINDS WILL SHORTEN THE FETCH OVER THE 
LAKE. HAVE NOT TOUCHED THURSDAY LEAVING 20 PERCENT.

REST OF DISCUSSION AS BEFORE.

WINDS DO BACK TO 280-290 FOR A TIME THURS EVE AND LINE UP FOR A 
BRIEF PERIOD WITH INV LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH (7K FT) FOR A BIT OF 
ACTIVITY OVER OSW COUNTY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW AS MM5 
STILL SHOEING NO REFLECTION. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN ON 
FRIDAY WITH ONE DAY OF SUNSHINE BUT TEMPS WILL STILL STRUGGLE 
THROUGH THE 40S WITH 850'S STILL SUBZERO. THEN...THINGS GET 
UNCERTAIN AFTER THAT.

ETA AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RACING A S/W EAST FROM MICH 
AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRI NT AND SAT BRINGING THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS 
OUR ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. HAD MY DOUBTS ON THIS WITH PREV LAST 
TWO RUNS...BUT MODELS GETTING FIRMER WITH THIS FEATURE SO CANNOT 
IGNORE AND WILL GO WITH 40 POPS ALL DAY WEST AND AFTERNOON ONLY 
EAST. ETA PUSHES THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST AND DISSIPATES SAT NT 
WHILE GFS STALLS OUT THIS WEAK FRONT ACROSS WRN NY SAT NT AND SUN. 
WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHC SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF 
FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. THINGS THEN GET REALLY INTERESTING FOR 
MONDAY 
AS GFS BUCKLES THE UPPER FLOW INTO A SHARP TROF OVER OHIO/TENN 
VALLEYS WHICH GOES NEG TILT BY MON NT. THIS WOULD BACK UP THE FRONT 
IN OUR VICINITY...PUSHING IT TO THE WEST AND ALLOW US TO GET INTO A 
STRONG S-SE FLOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SFC LOW WHICH WOULD BE DRAWN UP 
WELL TO OUR WEST. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...WE COULD GET QUITE 
WARM AND WINDY MONDAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING...THEN SHOWERY AND 
COLDER WITH FROPA LATE MON/MON NT. THIS IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM 00Z 
MRF WHICH KEPT EVERYTHING TO OUR EAST...BUT AGREES BETTER WITH HPC 
PROGS. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS WEST MON AND MON NT AND EAST LATE 
MON/MON NT. IN ANY CASE...COLDER AIR SWINGS BACK IN FROM SW AND W 
TUES-WED WITH CHC SHOWERS. WIND GRIDS MONDAY VERY UNCERTAIN.

HYDROWISE...EARLIER PRECIP GENERALLY 0.1 INCH OR LESS EARLY THIS 
MORNING. MOST WAS LIQUID BUT WE DID GET REPORT OF SNOWFLAKES AT 
ELEVS OVER 1000 FT. RIVERS/CREEK FLOWS AT NORMAL LATE OCT LEVELS IN 
WEST...A BIT HIGH E OF LK ONT. OCT RAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT 
REGION.

THATS ABOUT IT FROM THE BUF THIS AFTERNOON. GRIDS UPDATED. WRKZONES 
AVAIL BY 315 OR SO. ON STREET BY 345. TAKE IT EASY.

.BUF...NONE.

$$

EGR/MCLAUGHLIN