EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 1999
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE ACCORDING TO LOW CLOUD MOTIONS ON EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. RUC MODEL DRIFTS THE LOW SOUTHEAST WHICH SEEMS
TO BE SHOWN BY VISIBLE LOOP. MAIN PROBLEM TO LOOK AT IN
MORNING ZONE FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD COVER
REMAINS AND THE EFFECT THIS WOULD HAVE ON HIGH TEMPS. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION LOOKS ABOUT NEUTRAL. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY SCALE
BACK MAX TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MARINE...CURRENT BUOY DATA SHOWS WEST WINDS BUT EXPECT THAT AS LOW
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO A NORTHWEST
COMPONENT. RUC SHOWS SIGNIFICANT TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE 20 TO 50 NM NORTHERN LEG. DO NOT
SEE THIS EVEN OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA OR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL
WATERS SO NOT PLANNING ON ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO WINDS OR SEAS.
.MLB...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH-TO JUPITER INLET. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
FXUS62 KTBW 010739 AMD fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 1999
SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN STILL MOVING LOW OFF
THE GA/NORTH FLORIDA COAST AND MOVING IT TO ABOUT 200 OR SO MILES
OFFSHORE OF SGJ BY 12Z THIS AM. WATER VAPOR AND RUC...MESO ETA
MODELS ALL SHOW DRYING IN MID-UPPER LEVELS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FA
EARLY THIS AM WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S FA-WIDE. THIS
DRYING IS EVEN MORE THAN THE NGM HAS PROGGED AND WILL IN
FACT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR VOLUSIA AND KEEP THE
REST OF THE FA DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS LAYERED LOW
CLOUDS SLOWLY ADVECTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FA EARLY THIS AM...AND
ANY CLEAR/MOSLTY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
REALLY SHORT LIVED. ALL MODELS KEEP DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER 200 MBS AND WILL GO ALONG W/THIS AS
SYSTEM TRIES TO MAKE A SOUTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE FA THIS AM BEFORE
AGAIN SHIFTING EAST AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES LARGE SCALE
TROUGH SLOWLY EASTWARD ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS
REMAINING ACROSS THE FA TODAY...WILL GO WITH AVN GUIDANCE...AND
BELIEVE THAT TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE BELOW AVN NUMBERS. WILL
KEEP HEAVY SURF ADVISORY DUE TO ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS BUT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH MARTIN COUNTY. WILL OPT TO ALLOW CURRENT
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE BUT EMPHASIZE HEAVY SURF WITH BUILDING
SWELLS PILING WATER ON BEACHES. CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES
TODAY.
LONG TERM...EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN TO MAKE AN EASTWARD EXIT BEGINNING
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AND SKIES TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY TO
KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL BEGIN TO BETTER REBOUND MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS. OMEGA PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF YEILDING WITH FOR/AFT
CLOSED UPPER LOWS OPENING AND EJECTING ENE BY TUE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEEDED FOR ALL OF FORECAST AREA AS
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH MARINE
LOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GA WATERS. LARGER SWELLS SHOULD
FURTHER DETERIORATE SEA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRELIM NUMBERS...
DAB EB 067/053 074/055 077 56210
MCO EB 070/055 076/057 079 56110
MLB EB 070/054 075/056 079 56110
.MLB...
HEAVY SURF ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH-TO JUPITER INLET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
TROUTMAN/SHARP
FXUS72 KMFL 010707 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1121 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 1999
ONLY CHGS NEEDED TDA ARE FOR TEMPS AND WND AND THOSE ARE MINOR.
DECENT MIXING GOING ON WITH 16Z OBS SUPPORTING MIXING TO 850 MB OR
HIGHER ALREADY. GOING UP TO 800 MB ON LCL RAOBS WITH WEAK LOW LVL
COLD ADVCTN PER PROFILERS AND 12Z RUC GIVES CLOSE TO FCST HIGHS.
MAY DROP NERN SXNS A CATEGORY HWVR.
PROFILERS...15Z SFC GEOSTROPHIC WND AND SFC PRES GRADIENT FM 15Z
ANLYS ALSO INDC WNDS MAY HAVE TO BE CLIPPED A BIT IN SPOTS.
.DSM...NONE
SMALL
FXUS63 KDMX 010825 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 01 1999
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE ON CURRENT FCST AS LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED OFF SE
CST AND WINDS STAY NE ACRS FA. WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER ALOFT AND
WITH AFTN MIXING DUE TO STRG SUN SHD BE GUSTY AND MAKE SCA ON SRN
PART CWF.
MORNING SOUNDING SUPPORTS MAXES ARND 70 OVR CNTRL PART OF FA AND
THIS AGREES WITH RUC.
.LWX...SCA DRUM PT TO SMITH PT.
JAB
FXUS61 KLWX 010630 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1020 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 1999
THE CHANHASSEN SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE
BASED INVERSION WILL BREAK AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 60S.
WOODLAKE PROFILER SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST 20 KNOTS OF WIND
AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE RUC MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM 2 TO 7
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN FOR THE UPPER 70S WITH EASE THIS AFTERNOON.
.MSP...NONE
WH
FXUS63 KDLH 010755 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
917 AM MDT SAT MAY 1 1999
UPDATES NEEDED MAINLY FOR SOME MODIFICATION OF SKY CONDITIONS AND TO
REMOVE MENTION OF FOGGY AREAS.
GIST OF GOING PACKAGE IS GOOD. ANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES
THAT UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. ENERGY PUSH THROUGH
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF SCHEDULE ACCORDING TO
THE 01/00Z MODELS. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THIS PACKET IS IN
THE PROCESS OF SPLITTING UP WITH SOME HEADING NORTHEAST WHILE THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT HAS A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO IT. THE ENERGY PACKET
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED A BIT AS IT
MOVED EAST AND IT MAY NOT BE THE PRIME MOVER OF THE UPPER LOW. IF
ANYTHING...THE SOUTHEAST MOVING COMPONENT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST VORT
MAX MAY SHOVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MORE SOUTHEAST.
AM LOOKING AT A SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THAT HAS SOME
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THIS SHOULD MISS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PLUS WHAT IS ALREADY HERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PER GOING
PRODUCT.
OF INTEREST...HOWEVER...IS AN AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FOR BILLINGS AT 1409Z.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. FREEZING LEVEL ABOUT 10,000 FEET
AND WIND PROFILE BASICALLY IS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. SPEED SHEAR OCCURS
ABOUT THE 400 MB LEVEL. ALTHOUGH THE RUC RUN FOR 01/12Z PRODUCES RATHER
IMPRESSIVE CAPES...MODIFICATION OF THESE PROGS INDICATES THAT CAPES WILL
BE LESS. CHB
BIL EW 067/046 064/041 060 52344
LVM .. 061/042 058/... ... 52344
HDN .. 068/044 066/... ... 52344
MLS .. 073/048 070/044 ... 52344
4BQ .. 072/047 069/... ... 52344
BHK .. 071/047 068/... ... 52344
SHR WW 067/042 064/038 060 52444
FXUS65 KMSO 010936 mt
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
215 AM EDT SAT MAY 01 1999
IF APRIL SHOWERS BRING MAY FLOWERS...WHAT DOES APRIL DUST BRING FOR
MAY????
.DISC...OMEGA BLOCK W TRANSFORM INTO MORE OF A REX BLOCK NXT SVRL
DAYS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNS OF RAIN COMING ANYTIME SOON. APRIL HAS
GONE DONE IN THE RCRD BKS AS THE DRIEST OF THIS CENTURY FOR KALB. BLV
OR IT OR NOT THERE WERE DRIER PLCS THAN THE 0.60 INCHES AT THE ARRT.
CESTM WAS ONE OF THOSE PLACES WITH JST 0.53 INCHES! THE RAFL
STATISTIC IS MADE MORE INTERESTING IN THAT STARTG WITH LST
JULY...THERE HV ONLY BEEN 3 MONTHS WITH > NRML PCPN. OUR OFFICIAL
RAFL TOTAL FOR THE PST 10 MNTHS WAS 24.88 OR 4.26 INCHES BELO NORMAL.
I REALLY THNK ONCE THE TEMPS WARM A BIT...AND THE VEGETATION COMES
FULLY OUT...WATER RESOURCES WL BEGIN 2 MARKEDLY DROP.
AS FAR AS FIRE WX GOES...RANKG IS 4.5 WITH 5 BEING THE HIGHEST FIRE
INDEX DANGER IN ERN NY. FOR THE PST SVRL HRS THE WND AT KALB AS SHFT
TO THE S. THIS IS IN RESPONSE 2 FCT THAT SFC HI HS REBUILD 2 OUR E
(IN THE PRESENCE OF COOLER MARINE AIR) AND SFC RUC SHWD A VRY WK MESO
INV TROUGH (SANS MOISTURE) IN THE VCTY OF THE HUDSON VLY. LKS AS IF
THIS FEATURE SHLD WKN NXT SVRL HRS AND THEN WNDS GO ALL OVR THE PLC.
HOWEVER ETA/GEM AND NGM SAY THEY WB LIGHT THRU SUN WHICH WL BE THE
ONLY SVG GRACE. EITHER WAY...YET ANOTHER SPS WB ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE
LTR THIS AM CONCERNING FIRE DANGER.
SLOW MOVG NOR EASTER LURKS OFF THE SE CST. THE AVN INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM WL NVR BE ABLE 2 SPRD ITS PCPN MUCH FRTH N AND W THAN KORF.
REX STYS S...THEN RDG ALFT REASSERTS ITSELF ERLY NXT WK OVR THE NE.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT IMPACT THE BCK DR CLD FNT WL HV ON OUR RGN
LT SUN/MON. MDLS DO NOT GIVE MUCH OF A CLUE...OTHR THAN 2 CHANGE
BNDRY TMPS VRY LTL DRG THE NXT 48-72 HRS. BLV COOLER AMS WL LKLY STY
2 OUR E...AND IN FCT WITH GD ERLY TRAJ...DWNSLPG OFF BERKS CLD
ACTUALLY WRM HUDSON VLY UP A LTL (AS FANS INDICATE).
FWC/FAN VALUES CLS AND LK REASONABLE. PLN NOT 2 STRY MUCH FM THEM.
CONTINUITY FM PREV PACKAGE WB FOLLOWED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
TWEAKS. WL THRW CATSKILLS IN WITH REST OF HIER TRRN (XCPT
ADIRONDACKS) AS WE FEEL A BIT MORE CU FRM WL TAKE PLC OVR HIR TRRN
GIVING THOSE FLKS MOSTLY SUNNY (AS OPPOSED 2 SUNNY IN THE VLYS). FOR
SUN A WK BNDRY MAY PRODUCE A BIT MORE CU EVRYWHERE.
.EXTENDED...YSTDY/S MRF INDICATED NXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RA WLD
NOT BE TIL ABT THURS. WE/LL SEE WHAT NEW MRF INDICATES.
PRELIMINARY WRKZFP AVBL. LATER.
.ALB...NONE.
HWJIV
ny
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CST SAT MAY 1 1999
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE TEMPS AND WIND. 12Z RUC CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS MODELS IN SHIFTING BLOCKING RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST TODAY. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME CI TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN FA AREAS TODAY HOWEVER WITH
DEEP DRY LAYER WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON TEMPS OR SUNNY FCST. TEMPS
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FWC ATTM SO MAY NEED SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM RUC DRY ADIABATIC TO H8 ONCE INVERSION BREAKS WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OF 20 TO 30KTS. WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH EXPECTED TEMPS AND RH WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
RED FLAG OVER PLAINS AREA ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
IN PAST DAYS.
.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER
FXUS63 KBIS 010832 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 1999
A BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS W/THE ONLY SIG CHALLENGE
DETERMINING HOW QUICKLY THE WNDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW
RETURNS IN THE ERN CWA ATTM. THE 15Z RUC SHOWS A WEAK H5 VORT
ROTATING SW ACROSS THE UPSTATE. BY 18Z THE RUC PROGS THE VORT TO BE
SW OF THE AREA W/RAPID DRYING IN ITS WAKE.
THE H8 GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT OVER THE UPSTATE AND NC PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT AS THE H5 LOW OFF THE COAST WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY E. IN
FACT...THE RUC INCREASES THE H8 WINDS BY 03Z WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
DECREASE THE WINDS ONLY SLIGHTLY. WHAT THIS PROBABLY MEANS IS THAT
AREAS SUBJECT TO DECOUPLING WL DO SO...WHILE AREAS THAT TEND TO STAY
GUSTY...LIKE GSP...WL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS OR SO MUCH OF
THE NGHT. WL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GO SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
MAY NEED TO CONTINUE LAKE WND ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING. WL MAKE
UP MY MIND IN TIME FOR THE WORK ZONES.
DWPTS ARE QUITE DRY ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW...THOUGH
W/WINDS STAYING UP SOME OVERNIGHT CURRENT 1ST PERIOD MINS OF U30S
MTNS TO M40S PIEDMONT LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY WENT W/FAN NUMBERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THEY SIDE BETTER W/THICKNESSES AND LOCAL TEMP
SCHEMES.
THE EXTENDED LOOKS INTERESTING. THE MRF AND UKMET BOTH DROP A RATHER
STRONG S/W SE OVER A STRONG BUT LOW AMPLITUDE W COAST RIDGE. MY
THINKING IS THAT W/SUCH A STRONG JET ON THE SW SIDE OF THE S/W IT
WILL LIKELY DIG AND BE MORE CLOSED THAN THE MRF/UKMET CURRENTLY
INDICATE. WL GO W/POPS WED AND THU. WL COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON
THU.
CAEWRKGSP OUT BY 245 PM.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
AVL 39/66/42/69 000
CLT 46/71/49/74 000
GSP 44/72/47/75 000
.GSP...NONE.
MCAVOY
FXUS62 KCHS 011420 sc
SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
247 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 1999
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AS
UPPER LOW OVER NW NEW MEXICO LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
BLOCKING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY AS MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS OVER THE AREA. ETA SUGGESTS AN MCS TO DEVELOP OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH STORM CELLS PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY A DUFFLENT THICKNESS PATTERN ALOFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.5 INCHES DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, EXPECT CLOUD COVER, LACK OF
SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, AND TIME OF DAY TO PREVENT LONG LIVED
MCS ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE ESCARPMENT. WILL STICK WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED AND LEAN TOWARDS THE AVN GUIDANCE AND QPF. 18Z RUC SHOWS WEAK
PERTERBATIONS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING, BUT QPF
VALUES ARE ALSO ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. THUS WILL KEEP HEAVIEST
RAINS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND LOOK REASONABLE.
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE... THE MRF SHOWS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE LATER
PERIODS OF THE 12Z AVN SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS....
AUS 64/74/63/82 4642
SAT 65/76/67/84 3542
DRT 64/80/64/88 4421
.SAT...NONE.
18/02 MESO
FXUS64 KBRO 011912 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR POP TABLE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1213 PM MDT SAT MAY 1 1999
SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER SPREADING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
GILA MOUNTAIN AREA TODAY. LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON SUNDAY, ENDING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS
ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE HEAVY WEATHER WILL REMAIN EAST OF FA TODAY. 17Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
KABQ-KSRR-KGDP-KMRF...AND SUBSEQUENT OBS SHOW THE LINE MOVING EAST.
ETA/NGM/RUC ALL CONFIRM THIS TOO. ALSO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FA EARLY THIS MORNING AND SETTING OFF
CONVECTION EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MAIN JEST IS EASTWARD FORCING WELL IN
PLACE. WINDS BECOMING QUITE BREEZY TODAY...15-30 MPH...AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH WINDS SOUTHWEST DESERT UNDER SPEED MAX.
WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS UPPER LOW NEAR KGUP WITH SPEED MAX ROTATING
AROUND SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERT. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS GRANT AND SIERRA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DONE...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
17
N
FXUS64 KEPZ 011805 tx
SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 1999
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. 12Z RUC MODEL INDICATES INCREASED PVA TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AND TEMPS APPEAR ON
TRACK GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. WILL MAKE MAINLY
COSMETIC CHANGES AND ALTER THE ZONE GROUPINGS OVER THE WEST SLIGHTLY
SO THAT WINDS CAN BE INCREASED IN ZAVALA AND DIMMIT COUNTIES.
.SAT...NONE.
18/02 MESO
FXUS64 KHGX 011436 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1001 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 1999
NOT REALLY MUCH OF A CHANGE FM FRI. MSAS DEPICTS A 03 LOW WOBBLNG
OFF THE SC CST. ONCE AGAIN ETA IS A COUPLE OF MB TOO HI W/THE CNTRL
PRES WHILE THE NGM AND RUC SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE. EVEN WITH
THE SUBTLE INCONSISTENCIES...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE WINDS WILL
STILL CRANK ACRS SE VA AND NC TODAY AND ACT INTO SUN.
CUR VIS SHOWS THE SC DECK XTND NE TO SW FM NR WAL TO PTB TO ARND AVC.
LAST FEW FRAMES HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH OF A NW PROG SO WL LEAVE PS COND
FOR POINT N AND W OF THIS LINE...AND VARIABLE CLDS OR MCLO FOR PTS S
AND E. WNDS WL BE A PROB TODAY. ECG IS ALREADY NRNG WND ADV CRIT...
BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE THE HIGHEST OB IN THE AREA. SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH. OTHERWISE...SE VA WL SEE WNDY COND WHILE MOST OTHER
LOC CAN XPCT BREEZY.
TEMPWISE THNK SOME LOC IN THE W AND N MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEG WMER
THAN FRI HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART STUCK WITH A PERSISTENCE FCST.
.MARINE INTERESTS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE XPCTED SO NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKINGS TO THE FCST.
.AKQ...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY...CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURR BEACH LIGHT.
GALE WARNING...COASTAL WATERS FM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO
CURR BEACH LIGHT.
SCA...CHES BAY/ATLC...CURR SOUND...CSTL WTRS FM FENWICK ISL
TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SHADE
FXUS61 KRNK 011351 va
WYOMING STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
230 PM MDT SAT MAY 1 1999
KFTG 88D NOT ONLY SHOWS INCRSG COVERAGE BUT INCRSG DBZS UPSTRM OF SE
WY. STILL RELATIVELY TAME ON KCYS 88D BUT SM CNVCTV CELLS IN ADVNC
MN NE CO RETURNS. NCAR MM5 THIS MRNG HAS MUCH LESS QPF THAN 00Z RUN
OF CSU RAMS. LTST RUN OF RUC CONSISTENT WITH TREND ON MM5 WITH QPF
FM LARAMIE CNTY NEWD THRU SRN PANHANDL NE. WHAT LTL UPR DYNAMICS THIS
CWA WL HV AS SRN CO/NRN NM SYSTM KICKS OUT WL END SHRTLY AFTR 12Z SUN.
MDLS CONT TO SHOW SM WK INSTABLTY OVR XTRM SE WY/PANHANDL SUN AFTN...
MNLY ALG/E SFC BNDRY. WLYS BHND THIS BNDRY WL BRING SM DRYG AND WRMG
ALF TO CWA...AT LEAST TIL MON AFTN WHEN CD FNT MOVS THRU. WHILE XPCT SM
SNW ACCUMULATN GRASSY AREAS SE MTNS TNGT...DON/T ANTICIPATE IT WL BE
ANY WORSE THAN OVRNGT.
.CYS...NONE.
COX
FXUS75 KCYS 011626 wy
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
920 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 1999
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH LOOSER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR
CWA...WITH CORRESPONDINGLY WEAKER WINDS. VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE
20 KT NE FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH AGREES WITH RUC PROGS OF
VEERING SURFACE FLOW TO NE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CWA. FORECAST PROBLEM
AGAIN IS LOW CLOUDS. 00Z TLH SOUNDING INDICATES OUR TEMPORARY
BROKEN CLOUD DECK WAS THE CONVECTIVE RESULT OF DIURNAL HEATING.
SATELLITE AND METARS SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS OVER FL ZONES AT THIS
TIME WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT IN FL ZONES. GA ZONES MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER SEEN ON FCC
SOUNDING. ONLY SUGGESTION FOR GA ZONES IS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN FROM OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW VORT MAX
DUMBBELLING S OVER CWA AROUND STACKED LOW OFF GA/SC COAST. LIFT
FROM THIS FEATURE LIKELY ALSO PLAYED A ROLE IN MORE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS SEEN EARLIER TODAY. RUC PROGS MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE
NLY IN WAKE OF VORT MAX BY EARLY MORNING...KEEPING CLOUD COVERAGE
LOW FOR ALL BUT OUR NE ZONES IN GA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK ON
TRACK BASED ON DEWPOINTS. ONLY EXPECTED CHANGE FOR FL ZONE UPDATE
AT THIS TIME IS WIND DIRECTION.
TJT
FXUS72 KMFL 020036 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
831 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 1999
UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE SE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS PER LATEST RUC DATA. SINCE LATE AFTERNOON ONLY MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED & CLOULD SHIELD HAS EVEN MADE A SURGE
BACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH AC CIGS AS FAR NW AS THE SC MTNS WITH ANOTHER
PIECE OF WEAK ENERGY ROTATING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW. RETURNS
OFF THE KGSP 88D HAVE BEEN DECREASING THOUGH & DO EXPECT AN OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS EVENTUALLY BUT WILL HAVE TO
GO SLOWER THAN LATEST MODEL TRENDS IN CLEARING THINGS OUT. WILL MAKE
SOME SKY COND WORDING CHANGES TO GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC...
ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN SECTIONS.
DUE TO CLOUDS & SOME WIND...00Z TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO
ABOVE FWC FCST. GIVEN EVEN SLOWER CLEARING TRENDS OVERNIGHT NEW LAMP
GUIDANCE NOW HAS MINS CLOSER TO WHAT THE 12Z FAN NUMBERS HAD. LOOKS
LIKE DAY SHIFT PACKAGE MINS CLOSER TO MILDER FAN NUMBERS...SO DON'T
EXPECT ANY TEMP CHANGES.
.GSP...NONE.
CSH
FXUS62 KCHS 011916 AMD sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
850 PM MDT SAT MAY 1 1999
THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MT TO CENTRAL
CO. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAD SHORTWAVE ACROSS NE FROM UPPER LOW
NEAR THE NM/CO BORDER. 850-700 THETA-E ADVECTION AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE CAUSING SHRA ACROSS NE AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. JUST GOT A GLIMPSE AT THE COVERAGE AS OUR RADAR IS BACK UP.
CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION.
MAIN FORCING WILL BE IN NE WITH LEFTOVER SHRA REACHING INTO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. APPEARS REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH 12Z.
00Z RUC2 SUPPORTS. WILL ADD SHRA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND REMOVE OVER
NORTHEAST WY. MINOR CHANGES TO WIND AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MADE.
OTHERWISE...GIST OF CURRENT FORECAST ON TARGET.
.KUNR...NONE.
HELGESON
FXUS63 KABR 020148 sd
WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 1999
03Z SFC ANAL SHOWS DRY LINE HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO NEAR A KAMA TO
KLBB TO KINK LINE. 03Z RUC ALSO HAS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL UPDATE TO DECREASE POPS
OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
.LBB...NONE.
JV
FXUS64 KMAF 020220 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
310 AM PDT SUN MAY 2 1999
LOWS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED E OF SAC WITH STRONG MARINE PUSH BANKED UP
TO SUBURBS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS FIRST SHORT WAVE RACING SE INTO OREGON
WITH LARGE SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS SPREADING INTO NRN CAL
IN DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW. 00Z ETA HAS CAUGHT UP WITH YESTERDAYS FASTER
NGM/AVN SOLUTIONS. 06Z RUC SHOWS SIMILAR TRENDS TO OTHER 00Z MODELS
WITH ONLY LIGHT PCPN IN THE NORTH THRU 18Z. THIS FIRST SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING. SMALL BREAK IN
UPPER CLOUD COVER CAPTURED BY 00Z MDLS IN AREA OF NVA. UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE LIGHT RAIN FOR SURROUNDING HILLS/MOUNTAINS.
SECOND VORT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE INITIAL ONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOWER HEIGHTS A LITTLE MORE. SAT PICTURES SHOW AREA OF
ENHANCE COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR 135W AND 45N TAKING AIM FOR CALIFORNIA.
ALL MDLS SHOWS DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOC WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED AROUND 00Z. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN SRN VALLEY NEAR THIS TIME. HOWEVER
H7-5 QVEC FORCING IS ALL NORTH OF CAL AND 130 UPPER JET IS PROGGED TO
TRACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DESPITE THIS ETA SHOWS A NARROW
AREA OF 850MB CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH A SWATH OF HIGHER
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 0.75 INCHES ADVECTING
OVER THE CWA. OROGRAPHIC WEST 700MB FLOW WILL SQUEEZE THIS MOISTURE
OUT. SNOW LEVELS FAIRLY HIGH THOUGH THE AVN IS THE COLDER MODEL INTO
MONDAY. USED 700MB TEMPS OF -2C TO -4C AND WET BULB ZERO LEVELS OF
5000 TO 7000 FEET.
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING ENTER OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY. ALL
MDLS SHOW LINGERING 850MB OR LOWER MOISTURE...ESP IN COASTAL RANGE.
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK OMEGA CONTINUES IN NORTHWEST CAL AS WELL. WITH
LACK OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR LOW LEVEL DRYING LEFT IN CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED IN THE CNTRL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY. W-E SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BY AFTERNOON. EXPECTED
SOUTHERLY WIND IN THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ETA HOURLY SOUNDINGS SHOWING SUFFICIENT
NORMALIZED CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE ENERGY VALUES.
EXTENDED MODELS STILL SHOW WARMING TREND STARTING TUESDAY WITH ZONAL
FLOW AND SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH. HOWEVER UKMET/MRF GENERATE TROF
ENTENSION TO DROPPING ALASKAN UPPER LOW NEAR 130W ON FRI WITH RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT. CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS LESS DIGGING OF THIS TROF.
.STO...NONE
BLU WE 047/035 048/036 057 65672
RBL WE 065/049 065/048 072 65562
SAC EB 068/048 069/047 074 65030
TARDY
FXUS66 KLOX 021011 ca
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 1999
KINX 88-D INDICATES AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TULSA FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS MAY DRIFT AS FAR EAST
AS A BARTLESVILLE TO IDABEL LINE BY MORNING...BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL
HAVE MORE DIFFICULTY AS THE SHOWERS ADVANCES INTO A DRIER AIR MASS.
UPPER SYSTEM TO THE WEST EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. ONLY NEW
MODEL TO EXAMINE SO FAR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN THE 00Z RUC WHICH
SUPPORTS THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. AM CONCERNED
ABOUT AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN SETTING UP OVER AREA
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH BEST ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS...DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER.
AFTERNOON FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO FIRST PERIOD OF FORECAST ON THIS UPDATE.
FCSTID = 11
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
FXUS64 KOUN 020204 ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1123 AM MDT (1223 PM CDT) SUN MAY 2 1999
WL UPDATING ALL ZONE GROUPS. BASED ON LATEST SATL...LAPS...AND RUC...
WL BE REDUCING CHC OF TSRA IN WRN CWA. MAIN DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
WL BE FURTHER EAST. BASED LATEST RUC AND SFC/PROFILER WNDS...WL BE
ADJUSTING WNDS IN WRN CWA AS WELL. WL ALSO UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS
WELL. WL BE MAKING WORDG CHANGES IN ERN CWA BUT THAT LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE.
.GLD...NONE
BULLER
FXUS63 KGLD 020842 ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1010 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 1999
AN AREA OF CLDS IS MOVG NW AWAY FM MAIN UPPER LOW AND INTO THE SE
PART FA. LOOKED AT ALL THE MODELS AND ONLY THE 12Z SHOWS ANY HINT OF
THESE CLDS. IT PUSHES THIS AREA OF MID AND HI CLDS UP TO NEAR A
DCA-BWI LINE BEFORE STOPPING IT. THESE CLDS SEEM TO BE THINNING SOME
AS THEY MOVE NW INTO DRIER AIR SO WL GO PTLY SUNNY SE OF THAT LINE.
TO AREAS W OF THAT LINE WL CONTINUE A SUNNY TO MSTLY SUNNY FCST.
WITH THE CLDS COMING IN WL LOWER MAXES SOME FM DCA-BWI SE WHILE
ELSEWHERE ARND 70 LOOKS GOOD.
WL LOOK AT NEW MODELS TO SEE HOW MUCH FARTHER THESE CLDS CAN MOVE
TNGT AND WHETHER ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CAN MOVE W. FOR NOW ALL
THE MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC SEEM TO LEAN JUST TOWARD MID AND HI LVL
CLDS.
.LWX...SCA ON CHES BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO SANDY POINT
JAB
FXUS61 KLWX 020745 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1035 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 1999
SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH H5
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 12Z APX RAOB INDICATING
VERY STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WILL BREAK WITH
SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70 DEGREES.
ONSHORE COMPONENT OF WIND WILL REACH INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS LAND-LAKE INTERFACE DELTA T'S REACH 25+ THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 30+ INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. INCREASED ONSHORE WIND FIELD WILL AGGREVATE FIRE
CONDITIONS AND HAMPER FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS THROUGH THE HURON
NATIONAL FOREST WHERE LARGE FIRE CONTINUES ATTM.
BASED ON ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING TO MIX OUT FROM SURFACE TO 800MB AND
H85 TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +9C ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND +10C TO 11C
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS PER 12Z RUC FORECAST THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES EXCEPT IN
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE LAKES WHERE COOLING AFFECTS OCCUR DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW.
DUE TO SEVERITY OF FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AN
UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN ADDITION TO THE OTHER FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AS PART OF THE
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
.APX...NONE.
FITZSIMMONS
FXUS63 KMQT 020751 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1130 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 1999
MIN TEMPS AGAIN THE ONLY PROBLEM AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES CLR
SKIES OVER FA.
WITH SFC RDG AXIS NOW EAST OF FA...LGT SLY WNDS BEING REPORTED
ACROSS MUCH OF UPR THIS EVNG. 00Z RUC AND 18Z MESOETA ALSO FCSTG SW
BNDRY LYR WNDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THESE SWLY WNDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING ALOFT OF WARMER BNDRY LYR TEMPS TO SFC AND
INHIBIT SHARP NOCTURNAL INVERSION AS EVIDENCED ON 12Z GRB SNDG FM
THIS MORNING.
HWVR...CURRENT DWPNTS ACROSS U.P. REMAIN DRY...IN UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30. THIS WOULD STILL ARGUE FOR SOME FALLING OF TEMPS
OVRNGT...DESPITE LGT SWLY WND. FCST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY
WELL OF LATE ON MIN TEMPS. BOTH FWCMQT AND FANMQT MINS OF 40 TO 45
RANGE SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS FM LAST NIGHT IN SW
MN.
GIVEN FAIRLY UNIFORM DWPNTS HAVE DECIDED TO BROADBRUSH INLAND ZONES
WITH 40 TO 45 TEMPS. ELSEWHERE...TEMP FCST LOOKS GOOD.
.MQT...RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS U.P. SUNDAY... AND LIKELY MONDAY.
JV
FXUS63 KAPX 020208 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 1999
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP CONSIDERABLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S. THE CHANHASSEN 88D SHOWS 30 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH SEEM A SURE BET ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM THE
RUC MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE APPROACHING CIRRUS WILL MAKE IT TO THE
TWIN CITIES BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE MIDDLE LEVEL REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.
.MSP...NONE
WH
FXUS63 KDLH 021517 mn
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 1999
FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE CLD TRENDS AND TEMPS. KMVX 88D
VWP AND 12Z H8 UA ANALYSIS INDICATING 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
FA. WITH TIGHT GRADIENT AND WITH INVERSION BREAKING EXPECT WINDS TO MIX
DOWN PRETTY CLEAN FOR 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS ENTIRE FA WHICH IS CURRENTLY
OCCURING AND COVERED WELL BY ONGOING FCST. LOW LEVEL MOIST TRANSPORT HAS
LIFTED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S OVER MOST OF FA. EXCEPTION BEING OVER FAR
EAST WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S AND ADDNL MIXING COULD LOWER
SLIGHTLY. AS A RESULT WITH WINDS...RH AND EXPECTED MAX TEMPS RED FLAG
STILL LOOKS GOOD IN THIS AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLD COVER FROM VIS/IR LOOP
GRADUALLY WORKING NORTHWARD INTO FA. 12Z RUC BRINGS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AS FAR EAST AS RRV WITH AREAS EAST STILL IN DRY COLUMN FOR FULL
SOLAR. CURRENT TEMPS SIMILAR TO YSTDY AT 15Z AND WITH FILTERED SOLAR
AFFECTING WEST HALF OF FA TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YSTDYS
MAX HOWEVER MAY NEED TO ADJUST TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY.
.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER
FXUS63 KFGF 020733 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 1999
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WHICH MODEL TO BELIEVE
CONCERNING BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE AND ATTENDING CLOUDS. THE ETA
REALLY INCREASES LLVL DWPTS OVERNGHT AND HOLDS ON TO THIS MOISTURE
THROUGH TUE. THE NGM AND AVN KEEP US MUCH DRIER DURING THIS TIME...
WHICH MAKES SENSE TO ME BASED ON SFC RIDGING NW OF THE OFFSHORE
CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE UPSTATE AND NC PIEDMONT. THERE IS A DWPT DISCONTINUITY OVER
NC ATTM WITH L30 DWPTS W AND L50 DWPTS E. ETA CROSS SECTION OVER THE
PIEDMONT SHOWS THAT LLVL DWPTS NEVER RISE ABOVE ABOUT 75 PERCENT
AFTER THIS EVENING HOWEVER...SO I FEEL PRETTY GOOD IN IGNORING THE
ETAS LLVL COLD POOL THIS CYCLE. RUC LOOKS TO TRYING TO KEEP DRIER AIR
OVER THE PIEDMONT AS WELL BY 03Z.
PLAN TO GO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTENCE ON LOWS. WL GO PARTLY
CLOUDY MON AS THE MODELS BRING 60-80% H3 RH/S ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. MON NGHT THE HI CLOUDS PUSH E AND WE ARE LEFT
W/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WL TREND MINS UP 5 DEG OR SO BASED ON STEADILY
INCREASING THICKNESSES. THE NGM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON TUE...AND EVEN THEN THE BEST IT CAN DO
IS 30 POPS AT AVL. IT TYPICALLY IS A BIT FAST IN EJECTING ENERGY OUT
OF THE SWRN US...AND WL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN INCREASING
CLOUDS ON TUE.
LATEST AVN AND THIS LAST NGHTS MRF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE ALSO SIMILAR IS TAKING ENERGY OVER LOW
AMPLITUDE W COAST RIDGE AND CLOSING IT OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
POPS A GOOD BET ON WED AND THU. NOT SURE ABOUT TUE NGHT YET. AM
LEANING TOWARD SOMETHING IN THE W...BUT WL HAVE TO SEE WHAT MRX/ATL
ARE THINKING. WE MAY BE COOLER AND DRY SLOTTED BY FRI...BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TRY TO BE THAT PRECISE AND WL CONTINUE POPS FRI AS WELL...
THOUGH W/COOLER TEMPS.
CAEWRKGSP OUT BY 245 PM.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
AVL 39/71/45/73 000
CLT 48/75/52/78 000
GSP 47/75/52/78 000
.GSP...NONE.
MCAVOY
FXUS72 KCAE 021408 sc
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1011 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 1999
12Z RUCII SHOWS SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPSTATE FCST TO CROSS THE MIDLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO H8 MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
INCREASE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON..SO PARTLY CLOUDY OR BECOMING
PARTLY STILL IN ORDER. WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE SC PORTION OF
FORECAST ARES TO 10-20 MPH...10 TO 15 STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE CSRA.
NO CHANGES IN AFTERNOON MAXES.
.CAE...NONE.
LM
FXUS62 KGSP 021401 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
959 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 1999
UPPER LOW SIMPLY WL NOT LEAVE US ALONE. THERE ARE TWO CENTERS
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE MAIN ONE CONTINUES TO SWIRL WELL OF THE GA
COAST...AND ANOTHER FEATURE IS NOW PUSHING W TOWARD THE NC COAST.
LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY IN CENTRAL NC AND THEY
SPREADING WEST AHEAD OF THE VORT. THE 12Z RUC VERIFIES QUITE WELL
W/THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS (ABOUT THE 60% RH LINE AT H8). IT
APPEARS THAT I WL HAVE BREAK OUT THE ERN ZONES AND GO BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTN. ALSO...12Z GSO SOUNDING AND A SUB-H8 LAYER OF 40 KT
WINDS. MOST STATIONS ARE IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY ATTM..AND I WL HAVE
TO UP WINDS TO 10 TO 20 EVERYWHERE E OF THE MTNS. TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND
WL MAKE NO CHANGES.
.GSP...NONE.
MCAVOY
FXUS62 KCHS 021348 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 AM MDT SUN MAY 2 1999
ERN CO UPPER LOW ADVANCEING NNE AS JET ENERGY DIVES INTO THE PAC NW.
MDLS SIMILAR WITH MOVEMENT OF LOW AND MAIN WX FEATURES...WITH
ETA/NGM SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY OVR SD PTN OF CWA. THIS MORE
UNSTABLE FCST IS LIKELY CORRECT AS LLVL H20 INCREASES AND UPPER LVL
CD AIR ADVANCES WITH CO WAVE. CURRENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW PRECIP
THROUGH CNTRL NE INTO SCNTRL SD ATTM. ETA/RUC GENERALLY SHOW PRECIP
REMAINING CONCENTRATED IN THE E UNTIL ATM BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION THEN FIRING OVR WRN SD. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY POPS IN SD CWA AND LOWER IN NE WY INTO THIS EVENING. WITH NRN
ROCKIES TROF DEVELOPING AND NEARING MONDAY...HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN
THE NW TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR MONDAY. HAVE GONE WARMER THAN TOO
COOL FWC ALL LOCATIONS...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS FAN.
.KUNR...NONE.
FXUS63 KFSD 020805 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 1999
MODELS NOT MUCH HELP TODAY IN HANDLING SITUATION...INCLUDING MESOETA
AND LATEST RUC. RADAR AND SATELLITE PICS SHOWING COMMA PATTERN...
INDICATING VORT ROTATING WWD ON NRN PART OF THE UPPER LOW. RAIN ASSOC
WITH THIS FEATURE NOW MOVING INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC. EXPECT THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW...AND THUS
TAKE SOMEWHAT OF A LEFT TURN...AND NOT CLEAR AT THIS POINT WHETHER
AREAS W OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL.
IN ANY CASE...ANY RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AWAY WELL FROM THE COAST...
SO WILL WORD AS SPRINKLES OVER SOME INLAND COUNTIES. NEAR THE COAST...
CAN GO CATEGORICAL LIGHT RAIN BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WRN EDGE OF
CLOUD SHIELD MAKING PRETTY DECENT PROGRESS INLAND...NOW AS FAR W AS PTB
AND RIC. THINK THIS WRN EDGE SHOULD ERODE AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON...
AS HAPPENED YESTERDAY...SO SKY CONDITION WORDING TRICKY THERE. WILL
WORD AS TRANSITION FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
BUT CLOUD SHIELD THICKER OVER ERN SECTIONS...WHERE CLOUDY OR MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY.
TWEEKED TEMPS DOWN FEW LOCATIONS...WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
ALSO...FEW MINOR TWEEKS TO WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.
ZONES TO FOLLOW.
.MARINE...MARINE FCSTR BUMPED WINDS AND WAVES UP ABIT BASED ON LATEST
OBS.
.AKQ...GALE WRNG...CURR SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS FM CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT
HEAVY SURF ADVISORY...CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH
LIGHT
SCA...CHES BAY/ATLC CSTL WTRS FM FENWICK ISL TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT.
REILLY
FXUS61 KRNK 021357 va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
953 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 1999
VISIBLE PICS INDICATE LOW CLDNS ASSOCD WITH SWATH OF WRAP ARND
MOISTURE PUSHING INLAND ACROSS ERN VA/NC THIS MORN. WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF CLDNS GNRLY ALONG A RIC TO RDU LINE QUEST IS HOW FAR WEST TO
TAKE RH FOR THE AFTN. MORN RAOBS CONT TO SHOW EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ALF
BUT DVLPG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND A LTL MORE ELY TRAJ A BIT MORE
CONDUCIVE TO AID STRATO-CU PTNL ESPCLY PIEDMONT ZNS. LATEST MESO-ETA
RH TIME SECTIONS ALSO PUSH SOME CLDNS AS FAR WEST AS LYH/DAN WITH
THE RUC ONLY HINTING AT A BRIEF PRD OF SHLW RH. THUS WILL LKLY NEED
TO ADD SOME CLDNS PIEDMONT AND PSBLY PTNS OF THE FOOTHILLS BUT WILL
HOLD FINAL DECISION ON AMTS/ZONE SPLIT TIL RELEASE TIME. ELSW EXPECT
CONDS SIM TO SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN ALTHO STILL BREEZY WITH NELY
GRAD STILL IN PLACE PER LOW OFFSHORE AND MIXING ONGOING. 12Z
THICKNESS FCST TEMPS SLGTLY WARMER THAN SAT ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE WWD
WHERE MORE SUN SHOULD PREVAIL. MAY NEED TO LOWER READINGS ERN
SECTIONS BACK INTO THE 60S DEPENDING ON CLDNS.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
JH
FXUS61 KAKQ 021059 AMD va