000
FXUS04 KWBC 030621
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
120 AM EST TUE FEB 03 2009


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 03/1200 UTC THRU FEB 04/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CSTL SXNS FM THE MID ATLC INTO NEW ENG...
AFT A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SOMETIMES SIGNIFICANT MDL DIFFS..ALL OF
THE 00Z MDL RUNS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THEIR HANDLING OF THE AMPLIFYING AND SLOLY PROGRESSIVE ERN U.S. H5
TROF AND THE ASSOCTD PCPN WITH IT.  ALL OF THE MDLS HAVE NOW
CONVERGED ON THE FACT THAT MAJOR SFC DVLPMNT ASSOCTD WITH THIS
DIGGING H5 TROF WL OCCUR WELL OFF THE E CST THIS PD..WITH THE SFC
LOW MOVG FM WELL OFF THE NC CST AT THE START OF THE PD TO SE OF
NOVA SCOTIA BY TUE EVE AND CONTG NEWD THEREAFTER TUE NGT.  THIS WL
KEEP THE DEEPER MSTR AND HVIEST PCPN WELL OFFSHORE..BUT SVRL
IMPULSES ROTATING THRU THE H5 TROF SHLD PROVIDE ENUF LRG SCALE
LIFT TO SUPPORT MSTLY LGT WTR EQUIVALENTS ALG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
BTR ATLC MSTR FM DE NNEWD INTO CSTL SXNS OF NEW ENG.  LATEST NAM
AND GFS QPF SOLNS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT..AND HAVE THE SUPPORT
OF THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM AND UKMET HIRES MDLS..SO SEE NO REASON TO
GO AGAINST THESE SOLNS.  MSTLY XPC 0.25-0.50 INCH WTR
EQUIVALENTS..XCP PTNS OF SERN MA AND CAPE COD AND EXTRM ERN
ME..WHERE SOME SLGTLY GTR THAN 0.50 INCH AMTS ARE PSBL.  PLS SEE
THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL POTNL.


THE ONLY OTHER PCPN THIS PD WL BE FM THE GTLKS SSEWD INTO THE
CNTRL APLCHNS..UNDER THE STG AND VRY SLOLY PROGRESSIVE H5
TROF..WITH MSTLY LGT PCPN TOTALS XPCD.  BTR CHC FOR A STRIPE OF
SOMEWHAT HVIER SNOWS WL BE FM WRN MI SSEWD INTO ERN IN..SWRN
OH..NRN KY AND INTO SRN WV..NR TRACK OF S/WV ENERGY DROPPING INTO
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/12Z
 0.01 486611 482602 476594 469595 458596 437618 410649 374686
      345714 319742 310756 309760 308766 307771 308777 310783
      313787 318789 322789 341774 352777 355775 359777 356782
      353786 350791 349797 349802 352807 355809 359815 358822
      355825 351830 349838 356843 359852 362855 367855 371857
      374862 380870 384875 389878 396879 400878 407879 412881
      419884 426885 431886 438884 444881 451879 456879 464885
      467888 470889 472886 475880 476872 473861 470855 466852
      462847 458829 456815 453806 448800 433792 416776 411774
      408775 404780 402784 397794 388796 385798 382797 378794
      375792 370787 367777 366769 369764 378764 388765 397764
      401764 408761 416752 419747 421742 424735 426730 433716
      437710 440706 447696 455686 464678 469673 475665 479661
      483653 486643 487631 487619 486611
 0.01 447019 446013 443008 439005 436003 433000 427997 424996
      418994 415995 413999 417002 420006 423009 427013 431016
      434019 437021 443023 447019
 0.01 409823 408820 407816 406813 405811 403810 401807 400806
      398808 397809 396813 397817 397818 399820 401823 402827
      403827 406829 408828 408825 409823
 0.25 476637 473630 468629 463629 457634 443643 437649 417673
      408685 400696 386718 380729 381736 385740 396744 400746
      402747 406746 409743 413739 415734 418729 420723 426710
      433698 443687 452676 461665 471653 475643 476637
 0.50 463650 461646 458647 453649 446652 440657 431668 423679
      414691 409702 409711 411714 416711 420705 429695 435689
      441683 448672 456661 463650

$$