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FXUS04 KWBC 020648
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
147 AM EST MON FEB 02 2009
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 02/1200 UTC THRU FEB 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
...MID ATLC STATES SSWWD INTO THE GULF CST REGION...
LATEST MDL RUNS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN AMPLIFYING THE H5
TROF THRU THE GTLKS..OH VLY AND DOWN INTO THE SERN STATES DURG
THIS PD..WITH NRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY DIGGING SSEWD WHILE SRN
STREAM ENERGY MOVS EWD ACRS THE GULF OF MEX AND THEN LIFTS NEWD
INTO THE SWRN ATLC. THE CDFNT ASSOCTD WITH THE NRN STREAM ENERGY
WL BE ONE FOCUS FOR PCPN..BUT WITH THE MUCH DEEPER MSTR RMNG WELL
S WITH THE SRN BRANCH ENERGY..XPC PCPN TOTALS ALG THE FNTL BNDRY
TO BE ON THE LGT SIDE..IN GENL AGREEMENT WITH THE MDL QPF SOLNS.
HVIER RNFL WL BE WITH THE SRN STREAM..WITH RECENT RADAR ALREADY
SHOWING INCREASING RNFL COVERAGE ACRS THE TN VLY AND CNTRL/WRN
GULF CST STATES AND SATL IMAGERY SHOWING COOLING TOPS..ESP ALG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF CST AND INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEX. AS THIS SRN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY MOVS EWD THRU THE NRN GULF MON AND THEN A LTL
MORE NEWD MON NGT..XPC THE ACCOMPANYING STRENGTHENING GULF INFLO
AND INCREASING PWS TO SUPPORT EXPANDING RAINS/CNVCTN FM THE CNTRL
GULF CST AREA EWD INTO MUCH OF THE FL PENIN. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING FM FEEDBACK PROBS A BIT THIS REGION..SO ITS QPF MAY BE A
LTL TOO HIGH..BUT IN GENL THE IDEA OF MDT TO LCLY HVY RNFL
SPREADING ESP INTO THE CNTRL FL PENIN ALG H5 S/WV TRACK AND VCNTY
OF SFC WV SEEMS REASONABLE. THUS..XPC A RELATIVE RNFL ACRS MSTLY
THE CNTRL FL PENIN..WITH SOME ISOLD GTR THAN 1 INCH AMTS LIKELY.
SOME FAVORABLE INFLO INTO THE WRN FL PNHNDL AND SRN AL SHLD ALSO
SUPPORT ANOTHER RNFL MAX THERE..GENLY IN LN WITH MDL SOLNS.
STRENGTHENING WRN U.S. RDG/BACKING OF THE FLO OVR THE NERN PAC WL
SHUNT THE HIER MSTR NWD INTO B.C. THIS PD..LEAVING ONLY SOME VRY
LGT RAINS PTNS OF THE EXTRM NWRN PARTS OF WA AND THE NRN WA
CASCADES. AND FINALLY..WIDESPREAD BUT GENLY LGT SNOWS WL COVER
MUCH OF THE GTLKS REGION..UNDER PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AND COLD H5
TROF.
TERRY
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 03/12Z
0.01 541202 540195 539189 536181 528166 521159 516153 506146
496142 491135 486130 481128 476126 471127 469131 467127
464125 460127 454129 452133 453139 459144 462161 465172
466174 469175 475176 478177 480180 482185 486187 488188
490193 488198 483201 476204 473206 471212 472216 475219
477221 478225 476229 473232 471236 470242 469248 469254
471263 474271 478279 487291 500300 505300 508298 511296
524261 523256 521250 519244 517237 515233 512227 508221
506216 503210 501205 504200 510203 513205 517210 520215
522221 523226 527232 530235
0.01 496923 495914 494911 490899 482882 477872 472864 468856
465844 458821 450803 445794 441786 436781 432781 428785
427793 427802 426809 426811 422814 418815 411818 409821
408825 409829 410833 415840 421845 420850 418853 414859
411862 409867 409871 411877 415881 421886 426890 433895
435907 440913 443915 447912 449909 453909 457917 462923
469922 476920 481923 488930 494930 496923
0.01 399804 412777 423758 430744 431732 431717 430707 425700
420698 412698 400702 393698 390690 383686 370691 355701
321732 313740 305747 289758 276768 267772 261775 252782
245788 234799 231804 229811 228819 231828 233838 229846
226852 225859 225868 226876 229884 233891 243915 250923
257922 263919 272914 276911 279910 282909 287911 294915
298920 303924 309926 315925 317923 323919 336905 342898
346892 364864 369858 375849 380843 385835 399804
0.01 493054 491049 488046 483042 476038 470036 463034 455031
452034 453038 456043 462047 466050 470051 476054 482056
487056 491055 493054
0.01 473111 474107 474105 470102 464101 460100 456098 454095
450093 447093 438096 437099 437104 438107 439112 443118
448121 452120 457114 464114 469113 473111 473111
0.01 452080 450076 448072 447072 444071 442072 444076 444077
447080 450084 452080
0.01 449047 449043 447040 446039 444038 441040 442044 444047
446048 447048 449047
0.01 449019 446014 441011 437008 434004 432000 430996 427998
426005 428011 431014 435016 440019 443020 446021 449019
0.01 415064 412062 410064 408064 407065 405068 404069 401069
398069 396072 395076 397079 398080 399079 401078 403076
404075 407075 410074 412075 415072 414068 415064 415064
0.01 333816 338816 342813 346806 353795 358787 366778 369772
368772 363775 359780 354785 348790 339796 332797 325800
325808 326811 333816
0.25 536211 534201 531195 526185 523178 519172 513171 508172
505174 504177 505180 507183 511189 516197 522205 527212
532216 535214 536211
0.25 518273 519264 517258 513250 508240 505237 502237 500237
499242 496245 492244 490243 486244 485246 484250 485256
486264 488269 493277 500288 506289 509288 513285 517277
518273
0.25 375721 375714 371711 364710 357714 349720 327738 279776
264784 253793 249797 245802 240813 257837 257843 255849
250859 248867 248874 248889 249897 250901 252903 256906
260908 264906 271903 282897 292893 299892 306891 312891
319889 324888 333882 344869 351858 357848 358845 358842
354841 345845 336848 329850 323850 319848 312844 306843
305840 304836 305830 307815 310802 313796 317791 327778
336769 354749 369733 373726 375721
0.50 506277 505275 505272 504268 503267 501263 500261 499259
497255 495254 494253 493253 491255 490257 490258 491261
492266 492267 494271 494272 496276 499278 502279 505279
506277
0.50 365719 361719 357721 348727 335738 322747 311757 298768
287777 277783 269787 260793 254799 252803 253807 256810
260809 263805 264801 266796 269794 274792 277792 279793
280796 278802 270812 267829 257878 255887 254895 257901
260902 264901 274895 283886 289881 293879 297879 301882
304884 308884 315882 322879 325877 328873 327866 300859
298859 295855 294852 294847 294831 297816 299809 302803
308792 317782 340758 359737 364727 365722 365719
1.00 316772 328760 335752 339748 337744 333745 319755 312763
308770 310774 316772
1.00 285873 286869 286862 285855 285848 282847 277851 274856
272863 268874 266879 268885 272886 276884 280879 285873
$$
