Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 06/15/08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE SUNDAY...THEN LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DECREASE A BIT MORE. A TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH JUST OFF THE COAST OF CANADA. IT WILL BE JUST NORTHWEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BY THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL INCREASE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXCEPT LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AT TIMES. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... MARINE LAYER HAVING AN EASIER TIME MOVING INTO ORANGE COUNTY THAN SAN DIEGO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE WEST PART OF THE INLAND VALLEYS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY BY SUNRISE. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WEST PART OF THE INLAND EMPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH DROPS SOUTH SLIGHTLY SUNDAY BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER MAY BECOME NON-EXISTENT BY SUNDAY MORNING BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING NEAR THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DECREASE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOCAL A BIT MORE. THE MARINE LAYER WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOONS FOR BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OCCASIONALLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SOCAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVING SECOND THOUGHTS ABOUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND TROUGHS MOSTLY ROTATING THROUGH CANADA OR DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE COAST. ECMWF MOSTLY KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT AGREES WITH THE GFS WITH A TROUGH DECREASING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOSTLY IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THE MARINE LAYER WILL DRY UP OFF SOCAL. EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO REMAIN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING NEAR THE COAST. && .AVIATION... 130800Z...MDCRS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 1800 FEET THIS MORNING. SOME LOWERING IS EXPECTED TODAY TO AROUND 1500 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COASTAL STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 1500 FEET MSL IS SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED ALONG THE COAST AT THIS TIME BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY OFF ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO FILL IN ALONG THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE WITH SOME STRATUS REACHING NEAR KONT BY SUNRISE. STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO BURN OFF OVER THE INLAND AREAS BY 15Z AND CLEAR TO THE COAST BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z. EXPECT STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNRISE AND SPREAD INLAND DURING THE LATE EVENING. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR DENSITY ALTITUDE PLANNING...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT KPSP AND KTRM IS EXPECTED TO BE 40 TO 42 DEG C TODAY AND SATURDAY. KONT SHOULD REACH 30 DEG C TODAY AND 33 DEG ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS SUCH AS KSNA AND KSAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25C TODAY AND SATURDAY. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...WHITLOW AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
930 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN MA SOUTHWARD INTO CT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PER MESO ANALYSIS GREATEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO THE SW ACROSS LI/NYC AND NJ. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /PER AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS/ OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE LESS THAN MOIST ADIABATIC AND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. SO WE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER IN TONIGHT/S FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE FORM OF MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL ALSO LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY OUT RUN BEST INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT INTO RI AND EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY INTO THE I495 CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY FIZZLE BEFORE REACHING THESE AREAS. THIS IS CAPTURED FAIRLY WELL BY PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO MAIN CHANGE TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST WILL BE TO LIMIT/RESTRICT MENTION OF TSTMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. USED A BLEND OF MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND METNAM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SUNDAY... WITH BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL CREEP EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION DURING FATHERS DAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. MODELS ALSO TRYING TO SPIN UP WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND MOVING IT EITHER ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OR S OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO SLOW THINGS DOWN. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY... THOUGH TRIED TO END PRECIP OVER THE CT VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO TRY TO GIVE SOME HIGHER QPF VALUES...BUT SUSPECT SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON THE SOLUTIONS. DID KEEP SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MA/S NH...POSSIBLE OVER 1/4". WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER E MA/RI...WITH LOWER-MID 70S OVER THE CT VALLEY WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME SUN BREAKING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH COASTAL LOW SE OF ACK ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS E MA SUN EVENING AND HAVE CHC POPS IN THIS REGION. AS STORM PULLS AWAY ANY SHOWERS WILL END BUT EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL VORTEX WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN GT LAKES DURING MON WITH ASSOCD COLD FRONT REACHING CENTRAL NY BY LATE MON OR MON EVENING. SOME INSTABILITY FCST TO DEVELOP MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE INTERIOR. CONFIDENCE IN SVR WX IS LOW AS BEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE OVER MID ATLC REGION WHILE STRONGEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS WELL TO THE WEST. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT AND SLOW DOWN AS WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS SOMETIME MON NGT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUE DEPENDING ON TIMING. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAST THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA ON TUE SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE SHOWERS IS LOW. WE HAVE LIKELY POPS MON NGT FOR MOST OF THE REGION AND KEPT CHC POPS FOR TUE AS WE FAVOR SLOWER TIMING. UPPER LEVEL VORTEX EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEW ENG AND SE CANADA WED/THU WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. MAX TEMPS PROBABLY WILL ONLY REACH MID 60S HIER TERRAIN TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WED/THU. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE VORTEX WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD FRI/SAT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPS APPROACHING SEASONABLE NORMS. ECMWF MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT THIS THAN GFS SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. EITHER WAY...WE WILL STILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FRI SO CANT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS FRI. BETTER CHC OF DRY AND SEASONABLE SAT. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... VFR-MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS BAF/BDL/ORH. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR PVD/BOS/HYA/ACK. SUNDAY... MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG FOR EASTERN MA/RI. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SLOWLY IMPROVING OVER W MA/N CENTRAL CT TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH THURSDAY... PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS E MA...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. MON/MON NGT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHC OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND ALL TERMINALS MON NGT. TUE...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN TERMINALS AS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA. WED/THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS UNDER UPPER LOW. && .MARINE... TONIGHT... EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FROM THE E-SE. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. 1-3NM VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG. SUNDAY... WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EVENING. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. E-NE WIND 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A FEW NE WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME SUN EVENING ASSOCD WITH COASTAL LOW...THEN DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 15 KTS OR LESS MON. SMALL CRAFT WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MON NGT AND TUE MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A FEW G25 KTS POSSIBLE. WE UNDERCUT WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WITH SW FLOW...BUT SEAS STILL SHOULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER OUTER WATERS LATE MON NGT AND TUE. WED/THU...GENERALLY SW WINDS 15 KTS OR LESS WITH A FEW G20 KTS POSSIBLE WED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT ON OUTER WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE WED/WED NIGHT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002. MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-008- 009. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC NEAR TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 930 PM SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/EVT MARINE...KJC/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008 .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND COULD AFFECT THE KRSL...KSLN...KHUT AND KICT TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WE INTRODUCED SOME CB TO THESE SITES...BUT WILL LEAVE VCTS OUT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. SCHRECK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008/ AVIATION... 12Z TAF UPDATE...LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CNU TERMINAL UNTIL MID MORNING...WITH LIFR CIGS ALSO HITTING HUT/ICT TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP JUST WEST OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 6PM...HOWEVER DUE TO THE SPARSE COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER FOR ANY TERMINAL AT THIS JUNCTURE. JAKUB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008/ DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTERING THE PICTURE AGAIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY-TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING DUE LIMITED DEPTH. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING BACK THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35/135 CORRIDOR. THIS AREA MAY START SEEING SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 00Z WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER (35-40KTS). MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD TRAVEL IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER...BUT THE DEVIANT RIGHT MOVERS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT DUE TO GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A FAIRLY WOUND UP PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND CAUSE MORE JET ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE IN DRIVING THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. WE ARE FAVORING MORE OF THE SLOWER ECMWF/UKMET APPROACH...DUE TO THE BULK OF THE ENERGY REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA FOR POTENTIAL JET MAXES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE POSITION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT...BUT IT APPEARS LIKE SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY BE LESS CAPPED SO THEY MAY SEE THE CONVECTION FIRE FIRST WITH THE CONVECTION BUILDING WESTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING ALSO LOOKS PROMISING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. MONDAY: THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION ENDING BY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF DAY...SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS DUE TO DECENT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT/CONVECTION. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING IN THE ROCKIES AND ALLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY. THIS COULD SET UP A PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROLLING INTO PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST COMPLEX COULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE COMPLEXES ARE QUITE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THEREFORE...WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COX && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 88 68 90 66 / 10 30 20 40 HUTCHINSON 88 67 90 65 / 10 30 20 40 NEWTON 88 67 89 65 / 10 20 30 50 ELDORADO 86 67 89 65 / 10 30 30 50 WINFIELD-KWLD 87 69 90 66 / 10 30 20 40 RUSSELL 90 67 91 64 / 20 30 30 40 GREAT BEND 90 67 92 65 / 20 30 20 40 SALINA 90 68 90 65 / 10 30 30 40 MCPHERSON 88 67 89 64 / 10 30 30 40 COFFEYVILLE 87 68 89 66 / 10 10 30 50 CHANUTE 86 66 88 66 / 10 10 30 50 IOLA 87 66 88 65 / 10 10 30 50 PARSONS-KPPF 87 67 89 66 / 10 10 30 50 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS .DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT 00Z ROABS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED UPR LO WITH POCKET OF -20C H5 TEMPS CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO. SEVERAL SHRTWS OF NOTE ROTATING ARND THIS UPR LO. THE FIRST IS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF DLH AT MIDNGT...WITH A CLUSTER OF CLD COVER OVER THE W HALF OF THE FA. DRY AIR IN THE LLVLS AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB ROAB/TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW HAS LIMITED ANY PCPN TO JUST A SPRINKLE OR TWO UNDER THIS CLD COVER. SCT SHRA NOTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD...WHERE DEEPER MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z TAMDAR SDNG FM DLH AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z INL RAOB SUGGESTS BETTER SUPPORT FOR SHRA. TEMP PROFILE ON THE INL RAOB IS ABOUT MOIST ADIABATIC...SO JUST A LTG STRIKE OR TWO WAS OBSVD EARLIER. ANOTHER SHRTWV IS NOTED JUST SW OF LK WINNIPEG ON THE SW FLANK OF THE UPR LO. SCT SHRA...WITH A FEW LTG STRIKES EARLIER... NOTED ALG ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES TROF STRETCHING FM ND THRU NW MN INTO FAR WRN ONTARIO. ANOTHER CLOSED UPR LO UNDER A POOL OF -20C AIR AT H5 IS PRESENT OVER WRN ALBERTA AND MOVING SLOWLY ESEWD. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE SHRA/TSRA CHCS THIS WEEKEND INTO MON ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER ONTARIO AND ALBERTA. FOR TDAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER DLH WL SHIFT ACRS THE FA DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL COOLING/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SUG ANY SHRA WL LIKELY DSPT DURING THE NGT. STRONGER SHRTWV NOW SW OF LK WINNIPEG IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE MN ARROWHEAD BY 12Z SAT AND THEN SWING ACRS LK SUP INTO ONTARIO BY 00Z SUN. TIMING OF THIS SHRTWV INDICATES THE ACCOMPANYING DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC WL BE BEST IN SYNC WITH THE DIURNAL HTG CYCLE OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN ZNS AS H5 THERMAL TROF (TEMP ARND -18C) SWINGS OVHD. 00Z NAM/RUC13/LOCAL REGIONAL HI RES WRF MODEL SUG CNVCTN WL DVLP OVER THE INTERIOR WCNTRL TOWARD NOON WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NOT FAR FM 70. HOWEVER... 00Z RUC13/LOCAL HI RES WRF MODEL SHOW COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STRONG LLVL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF SHRTWV AND LK BREEZE OFF LK MI WL OVERSPREAD THE ERN ZNS DURING THE DAY AND LIMITS DESTABILIZATION THERE WITH LK COOLING...WITH NO LK SUP BREEZE MOVING INLAND INTO THE E TO ENHANCE LLVL CNVGC AT INTERSECTION OF THESE BNDRYS. WL GO WITH HIER POPS OVER THE INTERIOR CNTRL ZNS WHERE SPC SREF PAGE SHOWS HIER PROBABILITY OF SUBSTANTIVE CAPSES AOA 500 J/KG. SPC FCST SHOWS MUCH OF THE FA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SVR TS TDAY. FCST MODEST LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO MOIST ADIABATIC (H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 6.5C/KM) SHOWN BY ALL NUMERICAL MODELS (AND SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB) DO NOT SEEM TO JUSTIFY THIS LISTING...BUT FAST UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LVL FLOW...MID LVL DRYING ON THE SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV TRACK (MAX SFC-H7 THETA E DIFFERENCE FCST TO REACH 18C AT ERY LATE IN THE DAY)...AND FCST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR APRCHG 40 KTS IN CONCERT WITH UNSTABLE PBL MIGHT INDICATE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH FCST WBZ IN THE FVRBL 8.5-9.5K FT RANGE. IN FACT...MOT IN ND REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 44 KT LAST EVNG AT 01Z WHEN TS PASSED THERE. BEST CHC FOR SVR TS WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL IN AREA OF HIER CAPES AND WHERE LK BREEZE CNVGC WOULD SEEM TO MOST LIKELY WITH CNVGC NEAR THE LIMITING STREAMLINE OFF LK MI. DRYING/DVLPG MID LVL CAP OVER THE W IN THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV WL LIMIT POPS THERE...ESPECIALLY WITH AN INFLUX OF LK SUP COOLING/STABILIZATION. WITH DRYING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV/LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG... LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A DRY PD AFT ANY LINGERING EVNG CNVCTN OVER THE SCNTRL AND E WANES IN THE EVNG. HOWEVER...RETURN SW FLOW/DPVA/ DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/DESTABILIZATION WITH HGT FALLS AHEAD OF APRCHG ALBERTA SHRTWV WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR KDLH BY 12Z SUN JUSTIFY A RETURN OF CHC POPS OVER THE W HALF OF THE FA LATE. WITH MORE RAPID RETURN OF MSTR AHD OF THIS SYS... CONTINUED TREND OF RAISING LO TEMPS. ON SUN...SHRTWV IS FCST TO PUSH ACRS LK SUP DURING THE DAY...WITH ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT CROSSING THE FA AS WELL. SEEMS BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WL BE OVER THE CNTRL AND E AGAIN PER TIMING OF THE SFC COLD FNT. THE NAM/UKMET ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH MID LVL DRYING THAT OUTRUNS THE SFC COLD FNT...BUT THE GFS SHOWS A SLOWER DRYING TREND SO THAT SHRA/TSRA WOULD BE MORE LIKELY ALG THE FNT. CONSIDERING THE SHRTWV TRACKS JUST TO THE N...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE FASTER DRYING/LOWER QPF EXHIBITED BY THE NAM/UKMET. FASTER DRYING ALF ALSO WOULD INCRS SFC HTG WITH LESS CLD COVER. IN FACT... MODIFIED NAM FCST SDNG FOR ERY AT 18Z FOR T/TD 70/55 YIELDS CAPE CLOSE TO 1300 J/KG. FCST DRYING ALF (MODEL SHOWS SFC-10K FT THETA E DIFFERENCE APRCHG 25C AT ERY AT 18Z)/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LVL WSW FLOW ALF WL ENHANCE THE RISK OF SVR TSRA WITH WBZ A FVRBL 8K FT. IN FACT...LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE SLGT RISK. WL TEND TOWARD THE HIER ETA MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMP FCST. MUCH COOLER AIR LOOKS TO INVADE THE UPR LKS SUN NGT/MON AS 00Z GFS/ UKMET/ECMWF SHOW CLOSED LO MOVING SE FM ONTARIO TO NOT FAR NE OF ANJ. SINCE THE GFS/UKMET SHOW DRYING ALF ON THE SW FLANK OF THIS LO AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER LLVL AIR CONTRIBUTING TOWARD GREATER STABILIZATION SUN NGT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SFC HTG...RESTRICTED MENTION OF POPS AFT DEPARTURE OF EVNG CNVCTN OVER THE SCNTRL AND E TO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NW. BUT JUST SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/-SHRA EXPECTED THERE WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MSTR. GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECWMF SHOW SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR ARRIVING ON MON/MON NGT WITH REINFORCING SHRTWV/SFC COLD FNT. WENT WITH THE HIER POPS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND E OF MQT CLOSER TO THE CUTOFF LO/LOWER MID LVL TEMPS/UPSLOPE FLOW IN CYC NW FLOW. WITH H85 TEMPS ON FCST 2-4C ON MON...HI TEMPS WL DO NO BETTER THAN ABOUT 65. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION TO FORM THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL UPPER MI...AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES THRU THE UPPER LAKES. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED A MENTION OF -SHRA AT KSAW LATER IN THE AFTN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE -SHRA. INCLUDED A MENTION OF -SHRA FOR A FEW HRS SUN MORNING AT KCMX AND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN AT KSAW. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25KT THROUGH THURSDAY. IN GENERAL...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR SLOWLY MOVES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 15-25KT RANGE DURING THAT TIME...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...DLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
752 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR LO NEAR THE ND/CNDN BORDER DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD BTWN RDG OVER THE PAC NW AND HI AMPLITUDE RDG STRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY TO THE SE STATES. SURGE OF MSTR AHD OF THIS TROF WITH 02Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW SHOWING 190/50KT WIND AT H910 AND PWAT AS HI AS 2 INCHES AT DVN HAS FUELED RIBBON OF SHRA/TSRA THAT IS NOW IMPACTING THE SE PART OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH UPR LO AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT REMAINS TO THE W IN MN...ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX SDNG IN THE SW FLOW ALF AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT HAS CAUSED THE PCPN OVER THE W HALF OF THE FA TO DIMINISH TO JUST ISOLD -SHRA. WHERE DRYING ALF HAS OCCURRED OVER THE W...SOME PLACES ARE REPORTING VSBY AS LO AS 1/4SM IN FG. CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD FNT/UPR LO (WHERE H5 TEMPS ARE AOB -20C AS FAR E AS INL)...SOME SHRA/TSRA ARE IMPACTING NCNTRL MN. MUCH COLDER LLVL AIR IS NOTED TO THE W OF THE UPR LO POSITIONS WITH 00Z H85 TEMPS 5C AT BIS/GGW. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INVOLVE SHRA/TSRA CHCS WITH SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND UPR LO NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TDAY...NAM/GFS SHOW UPR LO DRIFTING NEWD INTO NW ONTARIO THRU 00Z SAT. WSW FLOW ON THE SE FLANK OF THIS SYS LOOKS TO ADVECT VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB. THIS MOTION OF THE UPR LO WL ALSO RESTRICT THE TEMP DROP ALF...WITH CORE OF -20C AIR AT H5 REMAINING WELL TO THE NW. IN FACT...NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MID LVL CAPPING DVLPG ABV H7-6 AND LIMITING DEPTH OF ANY UPDRAFTS ABV RELATIVELY HI LCL NR H85. SO...EVEN THOUGH SFC COLD FNT WL DRIFT INTO THE WRN ZNS THIS AFTN...THINK CHCS OF CNVCTN ALG THIS BNDRY WL BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN OBSVD IN MN YDAY AFTN/EVNG. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP/LO EQUILIBRIUM LVL WITH ENVIRONMENTAL TEMP ABV -10C AT THAT LVL...REMOVED MENTION OF TS AND JUST MENTIONED ISOLD -SHRA WITH 00Z SAT FCST KINX AT IWD ONLY ARND 20. OTRW...ANY MRNG FOG/ST WL DSPT QUICKLY WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR/ DIURNAL HTG/MIXING. AS FOR TEMPS...WL TEND TO BUMP UP FCST MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN CONSIDERING UPSTREAM REPORTS IN THE UPR 70S OVER SRN MN YDAY AND MIXING TO H75 OVER THE CNTRL ZNS ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS. EXPECT LOWER HI TEMPS DOWNWIND OF LK MI AND OVER THE W. AS UPR LO OVER NW ONTARIO DRIFTS OFF TO THE NE TNGT...A SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO PUSH INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD BY 12Z SAT. IN THE ABSENCE OF DIURNAL HTG AND UNDER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ALF...MOST OF THE NGT WL BE QUIET AHD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE. ANY ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W THIS AFTN WL END QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG...PROBABLY BY 00Z. INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS LATE OVER WRN LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR INCOMING H5 THERMAL TROFFING/WEAKENING OF MID LVL CAP/MID LVL MOISTENING AHD OF APRCHG SHRTWV IN MN. COMBINATION OF INCOMING SHRTWV/DIURNAL HTG WL RESULT IN SCT SHRA/ TSRA ON SAT AS H5 THERMAL TROF (TEMPS AS LO AS -18C) SWINGS OVHD WITH SHRTWV AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE FCST IN THE MID 60S. SINCE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHRTWV WL BE BEST IN SYNC WITH THE SOLAR HTG CYCLE OVER THE CNTRL AND E...WL PAINT A BIT HIER CHC POPS THERE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE BREEZE OFF LK MI MIGHT ENHANCE LLVL CNVGC A BIT. DESPITE ARRIVAL OF H5 THERMAL TROFFING...GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW ONLY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SO THREAT OF SVR TS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE RATHER IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FCST IN THE 40 KT RANGE. LO WBZ FCST ARND 8.5K FT WOULD SUPPORT MORE LIKE PEA SIZED HAIL UNDER THE STRONGER CNVCTN. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS SO LO AND MORE CLD ARND... HI TEMPS WL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN TDAY. PREFER TO TEND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR HI TEMPS. AS UPR LO TRACKS SLOWLY ACRS ONTARIO ON SAT NGT/SUN...NUMERICAL MODELS HINT AT THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS ON ITS SRN FLANK ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS. BUT TIMING OF THESE SHRTWVS IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST. SINCE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHRA CHCS ON SAT...CUT POPS ON SAT NGT TO TO SCHC TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG...EXCEPT IN THE EVNG OVER THE E DUE TO RESIDUAL IMPACT OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THEN MAINTAINED GOING 30 POP ON SUN WITH DIURNAL HTG UNDER H5 THERMAL TROFFING AND APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS FCST A BIT HIER ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIER THAN ON SAT. MAINTAINED LO CHC POPS SUN NGT/MON TO REFLECT DIGGING OF CUTOFF LO FM ONTARIO INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. EXPECT TEMPS FALLING BLO NORMAL AS LLVL COOL AIR NOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THIS SYS FINALLY SURGES INTO THE FA. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)... WITH THE BEGINNING OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS...VSBYS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AT BOTH TAF SITES. CIGS REMAIN LOW...AT LIFR OR VLIFR...BUT WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING...THESE SHOULD JUMP TO VFR IN ABOUT 2 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST...WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES DOWN HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS. WINDS NOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY ITEM OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING SE INTO SE CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME 15 TO 25 KNOT NW WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY...AIDED BY COLD AIR FLOWING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...AJ MARINE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
345 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR LO NEAR THE ND/CNDN BORDER DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD BTWN RDG OVER THE PAC NW AND HI AMPLITUDE RDG STRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY TO THE SE STATES. SURGE OF MSTR AHD OF THIS TROF WITH 02Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW SHOWING 190/50KT WIND AT H910 AND PWAT AS HI AS 2 INCHES AT DVN HAS FUELED RIBBON OF SHRA/TSRA THAT IS NOW IMPACTING THE SE PART OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH UPR LO AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT REMAINS TO THE W IN MN...ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX SDNG IN THE SW FLOW ALF AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT HAS CAUSED THE PCPN OVER THE W HALF OF THE FA TO DIMINISH TO JUST ISOLD -SHRA. WHERE DRYING ALF HAS OCCURRED OVER THE W...SOME PLACES ARE REPORTING VSBY AS LO AS 1/4SM IN FG. CLOSER TO THE SFC COLD FNT/UPR LO (WHERE H5 TEMPS ARE AOB -20C AS FAR E AS INL)...SOME SHRA/TSRA ARE IMPACTING NCNTRL MN. MUCH COLDER LLVL AIR IS NOTED TO THE W OF THE UPR LO POSITIONS WITH 00Z H85 TEMPS 5C AT BIS/GGW. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INVOLVE SHRA/TSRA CHCS WITH SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND UPR LO NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS THAT IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR TDAY...NAM/GFS SHOW UPR LO DRIFTING NEWD INTO NW ONTARIO THRU 00Z SAT. WSW FLOW ON THE SE FLANK OF THIS SYS LOOKS TO ADVECT VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB. THIS MOTION OF THE UPR LO WL ALSO RESTRICT THE TEMP DROP ALF...WITH CORE OF -20C AIR AT H5 REMAINING WELL TO THE NW. IN FACT...NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MID LVL CAPPING DVLPG ABV H7-6 AND LIMITING DEPTH OF ANY UPDRAFTS ABV RELATIVELY HI LCL NR H85. SO...EVEN THOUGH SFC COLD FNT WL DRIFT INTO THE WRN ZNS THIS AFTN...THINK CHCS OF CNVCTN ALG THIS BNDRY WL BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN OBSVD IN MN YDAY AFTN/EVNG. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP/LO EQUILIBRIUM LVL WITH ENVIRONMENTAL TEMP ABV -10C AT THAT LVL...REMOVED MENTION OF TS AND JUST MENTIONED ISOLD -SHRA WITH 00Z SAT FCST KINX AT IWD ONLY ARND 20. OTRW...ANY MRNG FOG/ST WL DSPT QUICKLY WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR/ DIURNAL HTG/MIXING. AS FOR TEMPS...WL TEND TO BUMP UP FCST MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN CONSIDERING UPSTREAM REPORTS IN THE UPR 70S OVER SRN MN YDAY AND MIXING TO H75 OVER THE CNTRL ZNS ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS. EXPECT LOWER HI TEMPS DOWNWIND OF LK MI AND OVER THE W. AS UPR LO OVER NW ONTARIO DRIFTS OFF TO THE NE TNGT...A SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO PUSH INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD BY 12Z SAT. IN THE ABSENCE OF DIURNAL HTG AND UNDER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ALF...MOST OF THE NGT WL BE QUIET AHD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE. ANY ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W THIS AFTN WL END QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG...PROBABLY BY 00Z. INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS LATE OVER WRN LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR INCOMING H5 THERMAL TROFFING/WEAKENING OF MID LVL CAP/MID LVL MOISTENING AHD OF APRCHG SHRTWV IN MN. COMBINATION OF INCOMING SHRTWV/DIURNAL HTG WL RESULT IN SCT SHRA/ TSRA ON SAT AS H5 THERMAL TROF (TEMPS AS LO AS -18C) SWINGS OVHD WITH SHRTWV AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE FCST IN THE MID 60S. SINCE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHRTWV WL BE BEST IN SYNC WITH THE SOLAR HTG CYCLE OVER THE CNTRL AND E...WL PAINT A BIT HIER CHC POPS THERE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE BREEZE OFF LK MI MIGHT ENHANCE LLVL CNVGC A BIT. DESPITE ARRIVAL OF H5 THERMAL TROFFING...GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW ONLY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SO THREAT OF SVR TS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE RATHER IMPRESSIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FCST IN THE 40 KT RANGE. LO WBZ FCST ARND 8.5K FT WOULD SUPPORT MORE LIKE PEA SIZED HAIL UNDER THE STRONGER CNVCTN. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS SO LO AND MORE CLD ARND... HI TEMPS WL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN TDAY. PREFER TO TEND TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR HI TEMPS. AS UPR LO TRACKS SLOWLY ACRS ONTARIO ON SAT NGT/SUN...NUMERICAL MODELS HINT AT THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS ON ITS SRN FLANK ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS. BUT TIMING OF THESE SHRTWVS IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST. SINCE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHRA CHCS ON SAT...CUT POPS ON SAT NGT TO TO SCHC TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG...EXCEPT IN THE EVNG OVER THE E DUE TO RESIDUAL IMPACT OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THEN MAINTAINED GOING 30 POP ON SUN WITH DIURNAL HTG UNDER H5 THERMAL TROFFING AND APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS FCST A BIT HIER ON SUN...EXPECT MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIER THAN ON SAT. MAINTAINED LO CHC POPS SUN NGT/MON TO REFLECT DIGGING OF CUTOFF LO FM ONTARIO INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. EXPECT TEMPS FALLING BLO NORMAL AS LLVL COOL AIR NOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF THIS SYS FINALLY SURGES INTO THE FA. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)... KSAW...SHOWERS HAVE NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE SITE AND WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE SITE THROUGH TOMORROW. THE ONLY CONCERN LEFT IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WINDS HAVE BEEN TURNING TO THE SOUTH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE SOUTH...WHICH IS NOT THAT FAVORABLE OF A WIND DIRECTION FOR FOG. PLUS THE WIND SPEEDS ARE UP AROUND 10 MPH. HOWEVER...DRYING ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL IS FAVORABLE. THEREFORE HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 10Z OF IFR CIG/VIS POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. KCMX...ERLY FLOW KEPT SOME LOW CIG AND VIS THERE THIS PAST EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE SE...WHICH IS NOT NEARLY AS FAVORABLE...AND AS A RESULT THE CIG AND VIS HAVE WENT MVFR. SINCE MODELS KEEP THE WINDS AT A SE OR EVEN SOUTH DIRECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE ONLY WENT AS LOW AS IFR ON THE VIS AND MVFR ON THE CIG. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS. WINDS NOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS...AND THIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY ITEM OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING SE INTO SE CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME 15 TO 25 KNOT NW WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY...AIDED BY COLD AIR FLOWING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...VOSS/AJ MARINE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
122 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008 .AVIATION... THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO OVERHEAD DEVELOPMENT. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE STORMS OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. ANY ACTIVITY TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR ANY ONE AIRPORT. OUTSIDE OF THAT, A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG/HAZE AROUND SUNRISE IS POSSIBLE BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PROSPECTS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE TOO MUCH GRADIENT FLOW FOR MUCH OF AN OBSTRUCTION BUT SOME LIGHT HAZE SHOULD BE TO BE EXPECTED AS SURFACE DEWPOINT APPROACHES 70F AROUND SUNRISE. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1027 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008 UPDATE... WHILE THE STORMS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE, OUTSIDE OF SOME DECAYING ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY, WE STILL EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS REMAINS THE CASE AS WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO SE MICHIGAN FROM INDIANA AND OHIO. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING TELLS THE STORY AS IT SHOWS MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE. THIS DRY AIR INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON INCREASING SOUTH FLOW. OUR GOING FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY, TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY STORM REMNANTS FROM OUT WEST, AND LOWER CHANCES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER WHERE DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD WILL HAVE LESS COVERAGE. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 411 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT SURFACE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FROM A CHICAGO TO FINDLEY LINE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY BACKED FLOW...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 IN MOST AREAS AS OF 3PM. WILL EXPECT INLAND AREAS FROM ADRIAN TO OWOSSO TO SEE A FEW MORE DEGREE CLIMB THIS EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE...WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LAKE HURON WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE 80. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE... FINALLY CREEPING INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH. AN 18Z TAMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF DTW SHOWS MOISTURE STARTING TO INCREASE ABOVE 800MB BUT ALSO SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE NEAR 925MB. WE WILL NEED TO SEE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS APPROACH 85/67 TO BREAK THROUGH THIS CAP FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING...WHICH ADRIAN IS APPROACHING. HAVE REMOVED THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WORDING IN THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM DETROIT SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED 850MB MOISTURE OVER OHIO ALSO TRYING TO PUSH NORTH INTO THIS AREA WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO IN PLACE. UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER PENINSULA AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS PUSHES EASTWARD WITH DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL AND POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ILLINOIS AND TRACK INTO WESTERN LOWER OVERNIGHT AS 45+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THIS AREA. WILL EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE TRI-CITIES LATE TONIGHT REACHING THE WARMER MID-LEVELS UNDERNEATH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER IF THIS CONVECTION CAN REMAIN ORGANIZED...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL INCREASE POPS TO 60 PERCENT IN THIS AREA AFTER 6 AM WHILE JUST CARRYING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING TIME FRAME AS A 100+ KNOT JET LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL NOAM INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BY LATE IN THE DAY...LIFT WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET WILL BE SPREADING EAST INTO LAKE MICHIGAN/WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS/INDIANA. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS PART OF THE SCENARIO...TIMING THE LARGE SCALE LIFT/FORCING...IS THE EASY PART. THE COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE ANY RESIDUAL ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PERSISTS INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AND WHAT THIS MAY DO TO LIMIT INSTABILITY. AS IT IS...WOULD EXPECT THE AIRMASS THAT ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ON STRENGTHENING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW TO SUPPORT MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG SO LONG AS EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DOES NOT LINGER INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. WITH MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE...SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...AND GIVEN ONLY SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD...THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. AT A MINIMUM...WILL BE LEAVING LIKELY POPS (60-70%) IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA...AND WILL MOST LIKELY PROBABLY ATTEMPT TO DEFINE AN AREA OF EVEN GREATER CHANCE (80%)...AS THE CHANCE OF RAIN SEEMS QUITE GOOD. WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO BETTER ASSESS SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE CENTRAL NOAM UPPER TROUGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER CANADA WITH A BROAD...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME...MAINLY IN THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. DID ADJUST THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY FOR TIMING...BUT KEPT POPS GOING IN THIS TIME FRAME. AFTER THESE DISTURBANCES PROGRESS OFF TO THE EAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RECENTER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE RATHER PLEASANT AS THE FLOW OUT OF CANADA PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. MARINE... A PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL MARINE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON LAKE HURON. THIS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WAVES AND AN INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT...BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN PLACE FOR LAKE HURON...BUT CANCEL THEM OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS ARE STARTING TO SUBSIDE AS WE STABILIZE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...A GREATER THREAT FOR STORMS EXISTS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....BT UPDATE.......BT SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM....DG MARINE.......DG YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1041 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008 .UPDATE... UPDATED THE PRODUCTS ONCE AGAIN TO REMOVE THE WATCH AND POPS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. HENNIG && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008/ AVIATION... NOT MUCH SIGNIFICANT WITH THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER A FEW MAY STRAY EAST POSSIBLY IMPACTING CNM...PEQ...AND FST. WILL NOT INCLUDE TS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT IT MAY WELL BE A PROBLEM FOR LOW FLYING AIRCRAFT IN THE LOCAL VICINITY. HENNIG PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008/ DISCUSSION... VERY HOT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A RULE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS ALSO MORE LIKELY IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN THE SHORT TERM...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING RECENTLY DETECTED. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...NAM BREAKS OUT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE PUSHED POPS SOMEWHAT ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS FAVORED NORTHEAST OF AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY SATELLITE BASED LIFTED INDICIES. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO MORE CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THAT AREA. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BRING STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST. DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS RESULTING IN A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF AREA THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THIS IS DEPENDANT ON THE POSITION OF THE WOBBLING UPPER RIDGE FROM DAY TO DAY. GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH MAY STRENGTHEN BOUNDARY... CURRENT FORECASTS OF UPPER RIDGE POSITION ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR THIS SCENARIO. THIS WILL BE A SITUATION TO WATCH HOWEVER AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR IF THE BOUNDARY DOES PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GFS ALSO COOLING TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO COOLING AFFECTED BY MCS ACTIVITY EAST OF AREA. THOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT REALISTIC...INTERESTINGLY COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES NOT REFLECTED IN LATEST GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THOUGH THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WELL... WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE OR LESS THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MAINLY SMALL DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
931 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008 .DISCUSSION... WILL UPDATE THE PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT SUNDAY. TWEAKED WEATHER...POP...QPF...WIND GRIDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY. 12 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008/ AVIATION... NOT MUCH SIGNIFICANT WITH THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER A FEW MAY STRAY EAST POSSIBLY IMPACTING CNM...PEQ...AND FST. WILL NOT INCLUDE TS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT IT MAY WELL BE A PROBLEM FOR LOW FLYING AIRCRAFT IN THE LOCAL VICINITY. HENNIG PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008/ DISCUSSION... VERY HOT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A RULE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS ALSO MORE LIKELY IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN THE SHORT TERM...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING RECENTLY DETECTED. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...NAM BREAKS OUT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE PUSHED POPS SOMEWHAT ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS FAVORED NORTHEAST OF AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY SATELLITE BASED LIFTED INDICIES. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO MORE CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THAT AREA. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BRING STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST. DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS RESULTING IN A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF AREA THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THIS IS DEPENDANT ON THE POSITION OF THE WOBBLING UPPER RIDGE FROM DAY TO DAY. GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH MAY STRENGTHEN BOUNDARY... CURRENT FORECASTS OF UPPER RIDGE POSITION ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR THIS SCENARIO. THIS WILL BE A SITUATION TO WATCH HOWEVER AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR IF THE BOUNDARY DOES PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GFS ALSO COOLING TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO COOLING AFFECTED BY MCS ACTIVITY EAST OF AREA. THOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT REALISTIC...INTERESTINGLY COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES NOT REFLECTED IN LATEST GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THOUGH THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WELL... WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE OR LESS THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MAINLY SMALL DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 73 101 73 102 / 20 10 10 10 CARLSBAD NM 70 105 69 103 / 10 10 10 10 DRYDEN TX 73 101 72 101 / 10 0 0 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 74 103 74 103 / 10 10 0 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 70 101 71 99 / 0 10 0 10 HOBBS NM 71 103 68 101 / 10 10 10 10 MARFA TX 60 96 59 96 / 0 10 10 10 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 74 101 72 103 / 10 10 10 10 ODESSA TX 75 102 74 103 / 10 10 10 10 WINK TX 77 110 74 109 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
645 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008 .AVIATION... NOT MUCH SIGNIFICANT WITH THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER A FEW MAY STRAY EAST POSSIBLY IMPACTING CNM...PEQ...AND FST. WILL NOT INCLUDE TS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT IT MAY WELL BE A PROBLEM FOR LOW FLYING AIRCRAFT IN THE LOCAL VICINITY. HENNIG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008/ DISCUSSION... VERY HOT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A RULE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS ALSO MORE LIKELY IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN THE SHORT TERM...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTNING RECENTLY DETECTED. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...NAM BREAKS OUT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE PUSHED POPS SOMEWHAT ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THAT AREA FOR THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS FAVORED NORTHEAST OF AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY SATELLITE BASED LIFTED INDICIES. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO MORE CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THAT AREA. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BRING STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST. DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS RESULTING IN A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF AREA THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THIS IS DEPENDANT ON THE POSITION OF THE WOBBLING UPPER RIDGE FROM DAY TO DAY. GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH MAY STRENGTHEN BOUNDARY... CURRENT FORECASTS OF UPPER RIDGE POSITION ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR THIS SCENARIO. THIS WILL BE A SITUATION TO WATCH HOWEVER AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR IF THE BOUNDARY DOES PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GFS ALSO COOLING TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO COOLING AFFECTED BY MCS ACTIVITY EAST OF AREA. THOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT REALISTIC...INTERESTINGLY COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES NOT REFLECTED IN LATEST GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THOUGH THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WELL... WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE OR LESS THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MAINLY SMALL DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
337 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN MA SOUTHWARD INTO CT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PER MESO ANALYSIS GREATEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO THE SW ACROSS LI/NYC AND NJ. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /PER AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS/ OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE LESS THAN MOIST ADIABATIC AND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. SO WE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER IN TONIGHT/S FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE FORM OF MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL ALSO LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY OUT RUN BEST INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT INTO RI AND EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY INTO THE I495 CORRIDOR. FARTHER EAST ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY FIZZLE BEFORE REACHING THESE AREAS. THIS IS CAPTURED FAIRLY WELL BY PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO MAIN CHANGE TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST WILL BE TO LIMIT/RESTRICT MENTION OF TSTMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. USED A BLEND OF MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND METNAM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SUNDAY... WITH BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL CREEP EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION DURING FATHERS DAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. MODELS ALSO TRYING TO SPIN UP WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND MOVING IT EITHER ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OR S OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO SLOW THINGS DOWN. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY... THOUGH TRIED TO END PRECIP OVER THE CT VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO TRY TO GIVE SOME HIGHER QPF VALUES...BUT SUSPECT SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON THE SOLUTIONS. DID KEEP SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NE MA/S NH...POSSIBLE OVER 1/4". WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER E MA/RI...WITH LOWER-MID 70S OVER THE CT VALLEY WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME SUN BREAKING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE RATHER UNSETTLED AIDED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AS A COLD FRONT FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE REGION. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE EARLY MONDAY EVENING IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY MATERIALIZED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OF SHOWERY NATURE SO A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS...AND A SFC TROUGH HANGING BACK...LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH A SIMILAR RESULT AS THE PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND LOSES IT/S GRIP ON THE REGION FOR THURS AND FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS DIVERGE. WILL NOT FORECAST ANYTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... VFR-MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS BAF/BDL/ORH. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR PVD/BOS/HYA/ACK. SUNDAY... MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG FOR EASTERN MA/RI. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SLOWLY IMPROVING OVER W MA/N CENTRAL CT TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH THURSDAY... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FOR TUE THROUGH THURS...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS. && .MARINE... TONIGHT... EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FROM THE E-SE. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. 1-3NM VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG. SUNDAY... WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EVENING. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. E-NE WIND 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE. OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WED AND THURS. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF BOATING WEATHER WILL BE ALL THAT GREAT AT TIMES WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EKSTER NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...EKSTER AVIATION...EKSTER/EVT MARINE...EKSTER/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1142 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008 .UPDATE... CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL UPSTREAM MCS HAVE SHOWN A DECENT WARMING TREND OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS PER IR IMAGERY. RADAR TRENDS ALSO STARTING TO CONFIRM A GENERAL WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG THE COLD POOL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHERN LENAWEE COUNTY AFTER 1200 PM. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE EVENING CONTINUES AS WE WAIT TO SEE WHAT IMPACT THE MCS DEBRIS WILL HAVE ON STABILITY OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LOWER MICHIGAN. BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL DECK SHOULD HAVE SOME DEGREE OF INFLUENCE ON SURFACE HEATING. CORE OF 50-70 KT MID-LEVEL EXPECTED TO PUNCH IN FROM WISCONSIN DURING THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCOMING MODEL DATA SHOWS GOOD INITIALIZATION WITH 12Z RAOBS...AND BRINGS THE CORE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH...THERMAL BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT`S COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BACK WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. 06Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AS OPPOSED TO THE 12Z NAM...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THIS BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY TOO FAR NORTH. GFS LIFTS THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE VERY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY 00Z...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM ROUGHLY M-59 SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTION. AS FAR AS STABILITY...12Z DTX ROAB FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EASILY MIX THIS OUT EARLY...AND ACARS DATA INDICATES THIS HAD ALREADY OCCURRED BY 1330Z...SO WE ARE NOW UNINHIBITED. LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO LOOK TO BECOME QUIET STEEP BY MID-AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE WE SEE SUNSHINE. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z RAOB TO A SURFACE T/TD OF 84/55 YIELDS NEARLY 1800 J/KG OF CAPE. UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND STRENGTHENING...WIND PROFILES ALONG WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FAVOR MORE OF A WIND THREAT. DCAPE AREA BELOW INVERTED V SOUNDING LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LARGE...WITH SPC SECTOR ANALYSIS ALREADY APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AS OF 14Z. FREEZING LEVELS AT 10-11K FT ALSO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SITUATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE AID OF A PLANNED 18Z RAOB FROM DTX. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 725 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008 AVIATION... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE CONVECTIVE HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS THICKEN FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING BENEATH. PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS TODAY AS DIURNAL MIXING INCREASES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008 SHORT TERM...TODAY LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH ELONGATED ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROTATING E-SE WITHIN THE BASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPR MISS VALLEY. STRONGEST SHORTWAVE NOW SHIFTING INTO MINNESOTA... ACCOMPANIED BY A 90+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND BAND OF 50-70 KNOT MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE UPSTREAM ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SPILLING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERALL WILL KEEP POPS DOWN INTO THE CHANCE RANGE (40-50%)...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY YET ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE WILL BECOME PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 00Z. BETTER COVERAGE MAY HINGE ON HOW THE MESOSCALE DETAILS (RESIDUAL MCV/COLD POOL BOUNDARIES) EVOLVE AND TRACK UPSTREAM. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK /DEWPTS IN THE MID-UPR 50S BY 21Z/...MODEL SOUNDING DATA STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE TO EXCEED 1500 J/KG UNDER STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ONGOING UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY SEND SOME HIGHER CLOUD DEBRIS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL TRENDS WOULD LEND SUPPORT TOWARD A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSOLATION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MIXING WILL PUSH HIGHS TOWARD THE MID 80S...ESPECIALLY I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTH. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND LARGER SCALE ACCENT... WILL SEE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR MAINTAINING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. A UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WIND FIELD WITH 40+ KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD STORM ORGANIZATION ON ANYTHING THAT CAN FIRE...FAVORING LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS IN STRONGER CELLS AND BRINGING A HIGHER DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT. FREEZING LEVELS DIPPING BELOW 11KFT COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL MAKE LARGER HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. LONG TERM... COLD AIR OVER MANITOBA (850 MB TEMP OF 1 C AT CYQD) WILL BE HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK...AS UPPER WAVE/CIRCULATION ALONG BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA BORDER...ALONG WITH THE SHEARED OUT ENERGY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS...LEADS TO DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...AS DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ALSO SAGS SOUTH. GOOD LARGE SCALE FORCING AND VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LINGERING DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND LI`S SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO...ALONG WITH GOOD DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGED. TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP ON MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...LIKELY RESULTING IN A GOOD 10 DEGREE TEMP SPREAD FROM NORTH (UPPER 60S)/SOUTH (UPPER 70S). WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY MAY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY AS CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS LAKE HURON...WITH MAXES LIKELY STUCK IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE NUMBERS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD LAKE HURON DUE TO THE LAKE INSTABILITY GENERATED. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECTING LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND DURING TUESDAY WITH SUCH AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS LEADING TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN AND PULL EAST. THUS...JUST A GRADUAL WARMUP EXPECTED AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. MARINE... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EXITING LOW STALLS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......HLO AVIATION.....MR SHORT TERM...MR LONG TERM....SF MARINE.......MR YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).