FXUS63 KGLD 260830
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2003

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH HOW FAST MAXES WARM UP.

SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. IN FACT...FEATURES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
EVEN LOOK TO BE RETROGRESSING SOME. AIR MASS HAS COOLED OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION YESTERDAY STAYED TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WAS PLENTIFUL THROUGH 700 MB. HOWEVER...THE
FACTOR KEEPING THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA WAS THE
DRIER AIR ABOVE 700 MB AS SEEN PER SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS ARE UNDERDOING SPEEDS BEHIND UPPER TROUGH NOW
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. AT MID LEVELS...ETA/NGM WERE TOO HIGH
WITH HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. GFS WAS A LITTLE
UNDERDONE IN SPOTS BUT WAS MORE REALISTIC. ALSO GFS WAS HANDLING
UPPER SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO THE BEST AS WELL. GFS IS SLOWER TO
BUILD IN HIGHER HEIGHTS AS WELL. CONSIDERING CURRENT PATTERN WOULD
THINK THIS IS MORE REALISTIC. AT LOW LEVELS...ETA/GFS TENDED TO
OUTDO EACH OTHER IN DIFFERENT AREAS. WILL GIVE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE
ETA SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS HANDLING INCOMING FRONT THE BEST...
AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS THE BEST. IN GENERAL...WILL GO WITH A BLEND
OF GFS...MORE FOR MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND ETA AT LOWER LEVELS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MAINLY AFFECTING THE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST MOISTURE THROUGH 500 MB
REMAINS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. CONSIDERING THE TRAJECTORY OF
ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM ALONG WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ABOVE 700
MB...WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COLORADO COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS TO
WET...AND ESPECIALLY DO NOT UNDERSTAND CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS
MCCOOK AND HILL CITY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG AROUND IN THE WEST LIKE
THE DAY SHIFT THOUGHT. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEEKS TO CURRENT MAXES.
GFS LOOKS TOO COOL.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WITH A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH. DRY AIR CONTINUES ABOVE 500
MB. SO WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST. WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS TO START
THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING WARMING AIR MASS...RIDGING...AND
SOME PREFRONTAL WARMING...WILL TEND TO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
GFS/MAV.

FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA STRONGLY. ETA IS SLOWER IN BRINGING FRONT
THROUGH...AND DOES NOT BRING IT THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE IN
THE NIGHT AFTER THE AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO STABILIZE. THINK GFS
IS TOO AGGRESSIVE/FAST WITH FRONT CONSIDERING HOW STRONG THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS. CONSIDERING ABOVE...LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
DYNAMICS...AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS...WILL REMOVE ALL PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS TIME PERIOD. BECAUSE OF ABOVE REASONING...WILL GO SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE MAV.

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE 4 TO 7 PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

.GLD...NONE.

$$

BULLER