AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 947 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 MAIN CONCERNS FOR EVE UPDATE WL BE PCPN TRENDS OVNGT AND WNDS TMRW. MDLS SEEM TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN TRENDS WITH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING INCRG TNGT. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN EXPANDING ACRS SD AND MN WHICH SEEMS TO BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY ISENT LIFT ATTM. 00Z RUC RELFECTS THIS TREND WELL WITH 295-205K ISENT LYR SHOWING UVM PERSISTANT OVR IA TIL ARND 12Z. HWVR MSTR LTD AND CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ARE AOB 50MB ONLY ACRS NRN IA SO CURRENT FCST TRENDS OF HIGHER POPS N AND LOWER S SEEM FINE. CIGS STILL AOA 6500 FT AT 02Z. BEST WND POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACRS MN SUN AND QUESTION IS WHETHER THEY WL BE STG ENOUGH ACRS NRN IA TO ISSUE ADVY. 18Z ETA/AVN ISALLOBARIC COUPLETS AND SFC PRES GRADIENT MAX CROSS MN DRNG PEAK HEATING AND MIXING POTENTIAL...WITH AVN BEING A BIT FARTHER N. ETA BUFR MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WNDS JUST BARELY GETTING TO ADVY CRITERIA (30 MPH SUSTAIN FOR HR OR ANY GUST 45 MPH) ROUGHLY ALG AND N HIGHWAY 20. HWVR QUICK LOOK AT 00Z ETA/NGM SUGGEST SYS NOT QUITE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS WL JUST HIT WORDING HARD AS PER CURRENT FCST WITHOUT ADVY. 01Z SFC ANLYS PLACES INITIAL LOW BTWN KONL-KODX WITH WRMFNT EWD ACRS IA/MN BORDER. MUCH OF SGFNT COOLING STILL ACRS MT. OBS UPSTREAM WOULD SUGGEST CURENT MINS TOO COOL CONSIDERING CLD COVER SO WL RAISE LOWS A CATEGORY MAINLY NRN HLF. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER S TO FIT CURRENT WX. .DSM...NONE SMALL ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1050 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2002 3-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS SEEN SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE THIS EVENING... AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP HAS SET UP ACROSS MN AND WI WHERE LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS (<30 MB) ARE PRESENT. THESE LOWER CPD/S ARE PROGGED BY THE RUC TO SPREAD NE OVERNIGHT... CLIPPING THE NRN GRR CWFA. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT... WITH LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY SKIRTING FAR NRN PORTIONS AFTER 3 AM. THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS...SO IT MAY TAKE WHILE FOR THE UPSTREAM PRECIP TO ARRIVE AND START REACHING THE GROUND. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND GENERALLY JUST SOME MINOR WORDING ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. MEADE .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2002 MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE PCPN TIMING/COVERAGE. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS IMPRESSIVE 150 KT H25 JET PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WRN CANADA. STRONG SHRTWV ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET WAS ALSO MOVING SE TOWARD WRN ND. H25 JET ALSO PRESENT TO THE NORTH FROM N OF LK SUPERIOR TO SE CANDA. IR LOOP SHOWED COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO MN WHILE AREA OF -RA OVER SRN HLF OF MN CONTINUED TO EXPAND ENE INTO WRN WI. SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS UPWARD MOTION DEVELOP WITH ELEMENTS TYPICAL OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM...INCLUDING UPR LVL DIV FROM JET RIGHT ENTRANCE...STRONG LOW/MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS AND 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT. LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH PCPN OVER ALL OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH PCPN EXPANDING OVER AREA MAINLY BTWN 06Z-09Z. THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING WAA WILL BRING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS. .MQT...HIGH WIND WATCH MIZ001>003-009 LATE SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT. HIGH WIND WATCH MIZ004>007 SUN NIGHT. STORM WRNG W HALF LK SUP LATE SUN AFTN. JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 410 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2002 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW BROAD UPR TROF ACRS SRN CAN AND THE NRN CONUS. THE SHRTWV THAT CAUSED HVY RA AND SOME SVR TSRA YDAY IS NOW MOVG QUICKLY THRU SE CAN WITH RATHER FLAT SFC RDGING BLDG INTO THE NW GRT LKS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYS. LOCAL 12Z SDNGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE LLVL MSTR TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H8-85...AND PLENTY OF SC NOTED OVR CWA AS SUNSHINE HAS MIXED OUT THIS MSTR. BUT THIS CLD NOW DSPTG AS ACYC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RDG MOVG OVHD. A WEAK SHRTWV APPEARS OVR THE NRN PLAINS WITH SOME GENERALLY LO AND HI CLD...BUT DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLVLS PER THE BIS SDNG HAS RESTRICTED DEEP CLD/PCPN. HI CLD APRCHG WRN ZNS NOW. A MORE POTENT SHRTWV NOTED DIGGING SE OVR SW CAN ON THE W SIDE OF UPR TROF. 160KT/80KT H3/H5 JET MAX OVR BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POWERHOUSE SHRTWV. BOTH AVN AND ETA ANAL H3 WIND FIELD OVR SW CAN SHOW VERY GOOD INITIALIZATION ON THIS JET MAX. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS IS RELATIVELY MOIST...ABSOLUTE MSTR LIMITED WITH PWAT AOB 0.50 INCH IN THE PLAINS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE IMPACT OF VERY STRG SHRTWV PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN GRT LKS ON SUN... PARTICULARLY WNDS/WAVES/PCPN TYPE. PREFER AVN GUIDANCE THRU F36 AS ITS SOLN OF DEEPER SFC LO INTENSIFICATION THRU F24 MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND STRG JET MAX NOTED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MRNG. RELATIVELY QUIET PD EARLY TNGT WITH SFC RDGING MOVG THRU CWA. BUT MODEL INDICATES 998MB SFC LO REACHING NR DLH BY 12Z SUN...WITH CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 300K SFC (ABOUT H7) AFTR 06Z IN STRG SSWLY FLOW AHD OF SYS. CWA ALSO FCST IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...WITH DEEP H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/H4-2 DVGC/ H85-7 FRONTOGEN AS WELL. THIS FCST SUPPORTS CATEGORICAL WORDING SHOWN BY NGM/ETA/AVN MOS. SO WL MAINTAIN GOING FCST SHOWING PCPN DVLPG ACRS CWA AFTR MIDNIGHT. LO TEMPS WL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY BEFORE CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DVLPS LATER. AVN SHOWS SFC LO MOVG FM NW WI THRU WRN CWA AND TO FAR ERN LK SUP BY 00Z WITH SFC LO DEEPENING TO 995MB. DURG SAT NGT...THIS LO SHIFTS NE TO JAMES BAY WHILE DEEPENING TO 993MB. SINCE LOWEST H5 HGT/VORT MAX FCST TO LIFT NE JUST NW OF CWA...XPCT DRY SLOTTING TO IMPACT CWA AFTR MID MRNG SAT. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SHARP CYC FLOW FCST AND RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR SHUD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE LO CLD COVER EVEN AFTR DEEP MSTR/LYRD CLD/STEADY RA EXIT IN THE MRNG. ALTHOUGH EXIT OF DEEP MSTR WL CAUSE STEADY PCPN TO END IN THE MRNG...SAME CYC FLOW/ ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR WL MAINTAIN SCT-NMRS SHRA...ESPECIALLY WHEN AVN SHOWS DEEPER WRAP ARND H85-5 MSTR IN COMMA HEAD OF SHRTWV REENVELOPING CWA DURG THE AFTN AND SPRDG E OVR ERN ZNS SAT EVNG. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF TSRA NR LEADING EDGE OF DRY SLOT DUE TO VIGOROUS DYNAMICS...BUT SPC FCST INDICATES SVR TSRA CHC MINIMAL WITH ABSOLUTE MSTR LIMITED. ONCE COMMA TAIL/SFC COLD FNT PASS W TO E DURG THE DAY ON SUN...STRG WNDS ABV THE SURFACE WL BE BEGIN MIXING TO THE GRND. AVN INDICATES H85 WNDS WL INCRS ARND 50KTS OVR WRN LK SUP DURG THE AFTN AS TIGHT CYC FLOW ENVELOPS THAT AREA. SHARP PRES RISE MAX IN WAKE OF SFC LO (AVN SHOWS 14MB/6HR PRES RISE) WL ENHANCE STRG WNDS. EVALUATION OF HI WND CHKLIST WITH AVN FCST DATA SUGS GOING HI WIND WATCH OVR LK SUP BORDER ZNS IS WARRANTED LATE SUN/SUN NGT AS SHARP CYC FLOW SPRDS E DURG THE EVNG INTO ERN ZNS. WL REFRAIN FM WATCH IN MORE PROTECTED SCNTRL ZNS...BUT THINK HI WIND ADVY WL BE NECESSARY EVEN THERE. WNDS WL DIMINISH W TO E SUN NGT AS SHARPER CYC FLOW PROGRESSES STEADILY E WITH SFC LO AND IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC RDG. PCPN TYPE CONCERNS STARTING TMRW EVNG OVR THE W WITHIN COMMA HEAD MSTR AS AVN FCST H100-85 THKNS DROPS TOWARD 1300M (H85 TEMP NR -5C COMPARED TO WRN LK TEMP 10C). ALTHOUGH QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC EXIT BEFORE REALLY COLD AIR ARRIVES...SHARP CYC FLOW MAY ACT AS ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM INTO THE OVRNGT BEFORE HI PRES RDG APRCHG FM THE W LATE DIMINISHES THE FLOW. ETA FCST SDNGS/PCP TYPE SUGS LLVL WRMG RELATED TO THE LK WL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORM OF RA XCPT OVR ALL BUT THE HIER TERRAIN IN THE W AND NCNTRL. SOME SLUSHY ACCUM LIKELY...WL LIMIT MENTION UP TO 2 INCHES ON GRASSY SFCS OVR HIER TERRAIN DUE TO RATHER SHORT DURATION OF DEEPER MSTR AND RATHER WARM GRND/FCST NR SFC TEMPS. HI WNDS WL BLOW LK EFFECT MODERATION/CLD/ PCPN FARTHER INLAND THAN NORMAL...BUT SHUD LIMIT PCPN/SN OVR THE KEWEENAW. XPCT LINGERING PCPN TO END LATE SUN NGT/MON MRNG W-E AS QUICK MOVG SFC RDG AND SOMEWHAT DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVE UNDER RISING H5 HGTS. THERE WL BE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DURG THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS SHARP ACYC AND MORE WLY FOLLOWING DEPARATURE OF H85 THERMAL TROF. CLRG WL BE SLOWER OVR THE KEWEENAW AND THE FAR E. CLRG WL BE SHORT LIVED AS NXT QUICK MOVG...BUT MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED WAD PATTERN APRCH FM THE W EARLY MON NGT. EXPCT THICKENING CLDS MON EVNG FOLLOWED BY A CHC OF RA OVRNGT. LLVL DRY AIR AND LACK OF JET DYNAMICS/UPR DVGC WL LIMIT PCPN INTENSITY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE LLVLS SUG PCPN MAY BE MIXED WITH SN AT LEAST MON NGT PER ETA PCPN TYPE FCST. BEST DYNAMICS EXIT BY TUE MRNG...BUT LINGERING CYC FLOW AND MSTR SUPPORT GOING CHC POPS FOR RA WITH DRY AIR GONE. 00Z EXTENDED MODELS ACTIVE WX PATTERN INTO MID WEEK GRDLY SETTLING DOWN AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE W COAST AND UPR HGTS RISE IN THE E BY LATE THIS COMING WEEK. LAST IN THE SERIES OF SGNFT SHRTWVS PROGGED TO PASS TUE...THEN RISING UPR HGTS LEAD TO EXPANDING HI PRES CENTER OVR ERN NAMERICA. MRF SHOWS ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV RIPPLING THRU MORE ZONAL FLOW WED/THU...BUT OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH SYS AND MAINTAIN A STRGR HI PRES RDG. GIVEN LARGE SCALE TRENDS AND WEAK SUPPORT FM MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR OPERATIONAL SOLN...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW MAJORITY WEAKER FCST AND HAVE REMOVED PCPN CHCS FOR THU THAT APPEARED IN PREVIOUS FCST. ALTHOUGH MRF/ECMWF HINT AT FAIRLY STRG SHRTWV MOVG ACRS SCNTRL CAN IN FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME... LOOKS LIKE MSTR WL BE SO LIMITED WITH HI PRES RDG ACRS THE SRN CONUS CUTTING OFF GLFMEX INFLOW THAT ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FNT MOVG INTO RISING HGTS REGIME WL BE HARD PRESSED TO GENERATE ANY PCPN OVR CWA NXT SAT. SO REMOVED PCPN CHCS FOR FRI. TEMPS WL SHOW A WRMG TREND BY LATE WEEK UNDER BLDG RDG DESPITE SOME HI CLDS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY AOA MRF MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS AFTR WED. POPS GENERALLY BLO MOS GUIDANCE. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB. .MQT...HIGH WIND WATCH MIZ001>003-009 LATE SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT. HIGH WIND WATCH MIZ004>007 SUN NIGHT. STORM WRNG W HALF LK SUP LATE SUN AFTN. KC mi SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 850 PM MDT SAT OCT 5 2002 UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE ZONES AND STATE .SHORT TERM...MOIST NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. LATEST RUC/ETA STILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT IN LINE WITH TRENDS OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND AND ALSO LOOKING AT LATEST QPF CHARTS FROM ETA/MESOETA/RUC WILL EXPAND THIS EVENINGS MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY STRONGER ECHOES OVER THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF CENTRAL MT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS THERE. LWT APPROACHING FORECAST LOW SO WILL LOWER THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM GETTING REALLY COLD. BLANK .EXTENDED...MODELS START OFF SIMILARLY WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SOME DOWNSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS SO LIKE WITH YESTERDAYS FORECAST WILL CONFINE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WRN MOUNTAINS AND SW VALLEYS. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ON THU FOR DRY CONDITIONS. 12Z FRI ECMWF RUN AND 00Z SAT AVN RUN DIVERGED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WRN CANADA/NW U.S. COAST ON WED. ECMWF RUN SPLIT THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ONE PORTION MOVING THROUGH CANADA AND ANOTHER PORTION DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER FAR SW OREGON BY 12Z FRI. AVN RUN DID NOT INDICATE NEARLY AS MUCH SPLITTING AND WAS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. 12Z SAT RUN OF THE UKMET HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER FAR NW CA BY 12Z FRI. LATEST 12Z AVN RUN IS NOW MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST AT 12Z THU. THUS EXPECT UPSLOPE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP FRI AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HARD TO SAY WHAT THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THOUGH. WILL BROADBRUSH 20 PCT POPS OVER THE PLAINS WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BLANK .CCF NUMBERS GTF EE 032/064 049/060 036 14300 BBEBB 058/040 060/040 060/035 052/035 052 22111112222 CTB EE 030/062 046/059 035 14200 BBEBB 056/036 056/036 056/030 050/030 050 21111112222 HLN EB 037/064 041/062 036 14310 BBBEE 062/039 062/037 062/035 054/035 054 12121112222 BZN EB 035/061 037/060 031 14320 BBBEE 058/034 060/032 061/030 055/030 055 11121112222 WEY EB 032/054 030/053 026 14220 BBBEE 053/028 054/026 055/028 049/028 049 11141113333 DLN EB 038/060 039/059 033 14210 BBBEE 056/034 058/034 058/033 055/033 055 11121112222 HVR EE 030/063 045/062 035 14200 BBEBB 060/036 063/036 065/035 054/035 054 21111112222 LWT EB 030/060 043/058 034 14300 BBBBB 058/035 058/035 060/034 051/034 051 12111112222 .TFX...NONE. mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 940 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 WILL ISSUE WIND ADVZY FOR NERN 4 COUNTIES MOMENTARILY. NEW HIGH RES ETA AS WELL AS RUC PAINTING 30KT+ H925 WINDS BEGINNING AT 09Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z. H85 WINDS APPROACH 50KT BY 12Z...LUCKILY...DUE TO TIMING...SHOULDN'T MIX ANY WHERE NEAR THIS. WILL WORD NERN ZONES 25 TO 35 WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. ADVY WILL RUN THROUGH THE AM HOURS ENDING AT NOON. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTR MIDNIGHT AS GOOD H7 OMEGA FIELD MOVES EWD...AND SFC TROF PASSES EAST. COORDINATED WITH OAX. .LBF...WIND ADVZY THROUGH NOON CST SUNDAY NEZ007-010-028-029. CLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 323 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 ...FORECAST CHALLENGE TO BE WINDS SUNDAY... 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC TROUGH FROM ERN WYOMING INTO ERN CO. CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN LOWER LEVEL WAA REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST WITH 18Z RUN NOW A BIT MORE BULLISH ON QPFS. CONCERN FOR WIND ADVY FOR THE EAST SATURDAY AS H85 WINDS REACH AROUND 45 KTS 12 TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. WILL NOT ISSUE BASED ON MARGINAL PARAMETERS AND BRIEF HIGHER WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST AS H85 TEMPS STRUGGLE ABOVE 0C. LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT ONLY LOOK TO REACH LOWER 30S AS RETURN SRLY FLOW AND SFC HIGH CENTER WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND SOME CLOUD COVER LIMIT COOLING. NICE WARMUP MONDAY AS SFC TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA AND H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 14C TO 17C AND WESTERLIES PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 70. MONDAY NIGHT...A CLOD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LOWS NOT AS COOL IN THE UPPER 30S. COOLER WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH BUILD IN. TEMPS SHOULD DROP 7 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAY HIGHS. EXTENDED... WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE LIKELY TO BRING ANY CHC OF SHOWERS. A RETURN SRLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGH TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WARMER THU FRI IN ADVANCE OF ERN PAC H5 TROUGH WHICH SHOULD REACH THE WEST COAST BY 00Z FRI. 12Z GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH WITH CLOSE TIME WITH 00Z RUN WHICH EVENTUALLY DROP THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AS SFC FRONT SETS UP TO OUR SOUTH FROM SW KS INTO NERN KS. .LBF...NONE. KAR ne FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 847 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 .CURRENT OBSERVATIONS... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE ENTERING EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 50KTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DOES SHOW SOME SNOW FALLING OVER THAT REGION. THERE ARE ALSO A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. GOOD DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXITS. .OVERNIGHT... MAIN CONCERN IS BEING ABLE TO MEET CRITERIA FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT. MAIN ENERGY AND AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE LAYER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ONE NOTE IS THE LATEST RUC IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH SYSTEM AND IS DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED NATURE OF SYSTEM. DO EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS TO MIX OR POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME. BELIEVE MAIN CONCERN IN ADVISORY AREA WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF WET ROADWAYS BECOMING ICY BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THESE ICY CONDITIONS BEING THE FIRST OF THE SEASON...INTITIAL THINKING IS TO KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTACT. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND ISSUE NEW ZONES BY 10 PM. .FGF...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHERN ZONES AND WIND ADVISORY SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DONAVON nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1030 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2002 NO MAJOR CHGS ON ZFP UPDATE. WILL MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT W-SW WINDS ARND 10 MPH. TEMPS LOOK OK WITH MAX TEMPS FM NR 90 WELL INLAND TO THE MID 80S ON THE CST. PTCLDY SKIES SHUD SUFFICE WITH PLENTY OF AMS MSTR UP TO ABT 700 MB. MODIFIED 12Z CHS SNDNG INDICATED SOME MDT INSTABILITY WITH SFC BASED LI'S FROM -3 TO -4 AND CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1300 J/KG. MAY INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR ENTIRE AREA WITH ISOLD SHRA PSBLE ALG AFTN SEABREEZE. WILL HEADLINE CSTL ZONES WITH SHALLOW CSTL FLOODING PSBLTYS ARND THIS EVE'S HIGH TIDE. MARINE...THE ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TO ADJUST WIND DIRECTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA MASS FIELDS SUGGEST A DECENT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND PUSHING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LOWER 80S WATER TEMPERATURES AND INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. TIDES...TIDES RAN ABOUT 0.2-0.3 FT ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SIMILAR DEPARTURES IF NOT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. THIS SHOULD PUSH TIDE LEVELS ABOVE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA. TIDE LEVELS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUN...SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY STATEMENTS FOR MENTION IN THE HWO SO WILL JUST HANDLE THIS EVENING/S EVENT JUST WITH A HEADLINE IN THE ZFP AND CWF FORECASTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING COULD BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. .CHS... GA...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AMZ354-GAZ117-119-139-141. SC...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AMZ330-350-352-SCZ047>050. JC/ST sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 950 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 LATEST RUC AND CURRENT TEMP TREND WOULD INDICATE THAT LOW WILL NOT FALL AS FAR AS FORECAST. DWPTS AROUND THE AREA STILL IN LOWER 40S...AND TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. ALSO NEATENED UP WINDS IN THE GRIDS. UPDATED ZONES SENT. .ABR...NONE. HINTZ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 857 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 UPDATED THE ZONES A LITTLE WHILE AGO WITH THE MAIN CHANGE ADDING A WIND ADV TO THE CWA. STARTED LOOKING CLOSELY AT THE 18Z MESOETA... 18Z AVN AND LATEST RUC40. ALL MODELS POINT TO AN OVERLAP OF VERY STRONG LOW LVL CAA...SOME PRETTY STOUT SEA LVL PRES RISES AND SUBSIDENCE EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDN...40 TO 50 KTS WIDESPREAD THRU THE CWA AT 850MB EARLY SUNDAY WITH ABOUT 35 TO 40 KTS AT 925MB. AND FINALLY AND THIS IS BOTHERSOME...THE 300MB Q-VECTORS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE SFC TO 850MB WINDS SUGGESTING NO IMPEDING AT ALL OF SOME OF THESE WINDS COMING TO THE SFC. SO AFTER DIGESTING ALL OF THIS...DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WND ADV FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER SIMILAR TO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...IT IS A QUICK MOVG EVENT AND WIND ADV CRITERIA WILL LIKELY ONLY BE REACHED OFF AN ON FOR ABOUT 6 HRS. BUT THESE WINDS ALOFT ARE FCST TO BE STRONGER THAN THEY WERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...SO IT WILL DEFINITELY BLOW FOR A LITTLE WHILE. AND IT COULD BE QUITE STRONG IN THE FAVORED AREAS LIKE ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE NW FUNNELING TAKES PLACE...AND THE TERRAIN ISSUES ACRS THE BUFFALO RIDGE DOWN TO THE IA GRTLKS. WIND SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTN AS THE CAA ENDS AND WINDS OFF THE SFC RAPIDLY EASE. FOR PCPN...AREA 88DS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF LIGHT RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LVL WAA...SOME NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET WITH THE DRY LOW LYRS. WITH A STRONG UPR DISTURBANCE MOVG IN TNGT...THIS PCPN MAY HANG ON FOR QUITE A WHILE...CHANGING TO CAA PCPN LATER TNGT. COULD EVEN BE A BIT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIXED IN EARLY SUNDAY MRNG ACRS THE NRN CWA...BUT THEIR SFC WET BULB AND BNDRY LYR TEMPS ARE FCST TO ONLY DROP TO ABOUT 37 OR 38 DEGS SO NO ACCUMULATIONS AT ALL. PCPN SHOULD END EVERYWHERE IN THE FSD FA SUNDAY AFTN AS IT LOOKS LIKE STRONG SUBSIDENCE TEARS APART ANY PCPN CHANCE IN THE AFTN. AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST RUC40 AT 18Z MESOETA SNDGS...THERE IS A TAD BIT OF INSTABILITY ELEVATED IN THE MID LVLS...A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED IN NW IA. SO THEREFORE MENTIONED A CHC OF SOME TS THRU NW IA AND ISOLD IN ADJACENT AREAS N AND NW OF THERE FOR SOME OF TNGT. LOWS LOOK GOOD RIGHT NOW AND WERE NOT ADJUSTED AT ALL. .FSD...WIND ADV ENTIRE CWA...MOVG FM W TO E FM LATE TNGT TO EARLY SUNDAY AFTN. 31 sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 CORRECTED TEMPERATURE/POP NUMBERS UPDATED FIRST PERIOD OF ZONES TO REFLECT TRENDS IN SKY COVER...WX AND TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DECIDED TO ASSIGN CATEGORICAL 20 POPS /ISOLATED/ FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. RAISED MINIMUMS A FEW CATEGORIES DUE TO WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWFA. NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES WAS BARRELING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 MB THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THEREFORE...EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF FRONT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK REMAINS JUSTIFIED. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN WAKE OF FRONT ARE NOT ABNORMALLY COLD... PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND THREAT OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SUPPRESS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AS SEEN TODAY. THEREFORE... SUNDAY HIGHS WERE LOWERED A CATEGORY OR TWO. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT. UPDATED TEMPERATURE/POP NUMBERS... FCSTID = 04 AMARILLO 65 69 42 65 / 20 10 00 10 BEAVER 61 69 41 71 / 20 07 00 10 BOISE CITY 54 67 39 69 / 20 07 00 10 BORGER 64 69 42 68 / 20 10 00 10 BOYS RANCH 63 69 41 65 / 20 10 00 10 CANYON 64 69 42 65 / 20 10 00 10 CLARENDON 64 71 44 66 / 20 10 00 10 DALHART 58 68 39 68 / 20 07 00 10 GUYMON 59 69 40 70 / 20 07 00 10 HEREFORD 64 69 41 63 / 20 10 00 10 LIPSCOMB 63 70 43 70 / 20 07 00 10 SHAMROCK 64 72 44 67 / 20 10 00 10 WELLINGTON 65 73 45 67 / 20 10 00 10 JH ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 8H RETURN FLOW PATTERN IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS 8H DEWPOINTS OF 12 DEGREE CELSIUS POISED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH 30KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MEANWHILE... DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. THINKING HERE IS THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. 18Z RUC AND MORNING ETA MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITH K VALUES AROUND 32 DEGREES COUPLED WITH TOTAL TOTALS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD 20 POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE THAT MAY DEVELOP. INHERITED BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOK FINE AS 1026 MB SURFACE RIDGE SPREADS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY UPSLOPE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED. MINOR MID LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED INHERITED 20 POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO 30 OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY WITH SYSTEM LIFTING OUT AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. SLATTERY tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 UPDATED FIRST PERIOD OF ZONES TO REFLECT TRENDS IN SKY COVER...WX AND TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DECIDED TO ASSIGN CATEGORICAL 20 POPS /ISOLATED/ FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. RAISED MINIMUMS A FEW CATEGORIES TO ACCOUNT DUE TO WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWFA. NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES WAS BARRELING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THREE HOUR PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 MB THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THEREFORE...EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF FRONT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK REMAINS JUSTIFIED. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN WAKE OF FRONT ARE NOT ABNORMALLY COLD... PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND THREAT OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SUPPRESS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AS SEEN TODAY. THEREFORE... SUNDAY HIGHS WERE LOWERED A CATEGORY OR TWO. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT. UPDATED TEMPERATURE/POP NUMBERS... FCSTID = 04 AMARILLO 65 69 42 65 / 20 10 10 10 BEAVER 61 69 41 71 / 20 10 07 07 BOISE CITY 54 67 39 69 / 20 10 07 07 BORGER 64 69 42 68 / 20 10 09 10 BOYS RANCH 63 69 41 65 / 20 10 09 10 CANYON 64 69 42 65 / 20 10 10 10 CLARENDON 64 71 44 66 / 20 10 10 10 DALHART 58 68 39 68 / 20 10 08 07 GUYMON 59 69 40 70 / 20 10 07 07 HEREFORD 64 69 41 63 / 20 10 10 10 LIPSCOMB 63 70 43 70 / 20 10 07 07 SHAMROCK 64 72 44 67 / 20 10 09 10 WELLINGTON 65 73 45 67 / 20 10 10 10 JH ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 8H RETURN FLOW PATTERN IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS 8H DEWPOINTS OF 12 DEGREE CELSIUS POISED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH 30KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MEANWHILE... DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. THINKING HERE IS THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. 18Z RUC AND MORNING ETA MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITH K VALUES AROUND 32 DEGREES COUPLED WITH TOTAL TOTALS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD 20 POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE THAT MAY DEVELOP. INHERITED BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOK FINE AS 1026 MB SURFACE RIDGE SPREADS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY UPSLOPE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED. MINOR MID LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED INHERITED 20 POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO 30 OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY WITH SYSTEM LIFTING OUT AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. SLATTERY tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 303 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 8H RETURN FLOW PATTERN IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS 8H DEWPOINTS OF 12 DEGREE CELSIUS POISED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH 30KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MEANWHILE... DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. THINKING HERE IS THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. 18Z RUC AND MORNING ETA MODELS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITH K VALUES AROUND 32 DEGREES COUPLED WITH TOTAL TOTALS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD 20 POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE THAT MAY DEVELOP. INHERITED BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOK FINE AS 1026 MB SURFACE RIDGE SPREADS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY UPSLOPE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED. MINOR MID LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT MORE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED INHERITED 20 POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO 30 OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY WITH SYSTEM LIFTING OUT AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH. FCSTID = 13 AMARILLO 51 72 42 65 / 20 10 00 10 BEAVER 52 69 41 71 / 20 7 00 10 BOISE CITY 47 71 39 69 / 20 7 00 10 BORGER 50 71 42 68 / 20 10 00 10 BOYS RANCH 51 72 41 65 / 20 10 00 10 CANYON 51 71 42 65 / 20 10 00 10 CLARENDON 52 74 44 66 / 20 10 00 10 DALHART 47 71 39 68 / 20 7 00 10 GUYMON 50 70 40 70 / 20 7 00 10 HEREFORD 51 73 41 63 / 20 10 00 10 LIPSCOMB 52 69 43 70 / 20 7 00 10 SHAMROCK 53 74 44 67 / 20 10 00 10 WELLINGTON 53 74 45 67 / 20 10 00 10 .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. SLATTERY tx DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 TONIGHT THRU TUE...EDGE OF CU FIELD...SEEN ON VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY... FROM JASPER TO PLEASANTON TO BIG LAKE HELPS LOCATE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION OVER DPSOTEX...THE COASTAL BEND AND NW GULF IS ASSOC WITH VORT AXIS OVER THE NW GULF MOVING INLAND OVER COAHUILA BY THIS EVENING...PER RUC80...AS H7 RIDGE BUILDS WEST INTO S TX. CONCURRENTLY...ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVES ACRS NE MEXICO ALONG THE RIO (RESACA) GRANDE. PWAT INCREASED BY ABT TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO 1.83 THIS AM...COURTESY OF SE AND E FLOW FROM SFC TO H4 ON SOUTH SIDE OF ELONGATED LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF COAST. EARLY THIS AFTN...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NW. WIDELY SCT TSRA OVER THE DPSOTEX AND UPPER NE MEX COASTAL WATERS...IN AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE...ARE MOVG N AND CAN BRUSH THE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING. WITH H7 RIDGE AXIS SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE CNTRL GULF...WINDS AT H7 WILL VEER TO SE AND S...RESULTING IN DRIER AIR. WILL SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER AND POPS...AND RAISE MAX TEMPS ACCORDINGLY FOR SUN AS MESOETA SOUNDING PREDICTS PWAT OF 1.45 IN BY 18Z TMRW. WITH RESPECT TO THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...AVN AND MRF HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AND LATEST ETA WASHES IT OUT IN S CNTRL TX MON NIGHT. WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO 70S MOSTLY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO MID 60S AND DROP MENTION OF NORTH WINDS. WED THRU SAT...INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM DPSOTEX ACRS SW GULF TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE PERIOD. FOR FRI AND SAT WILL GO WITH MOCLDY E AND PTCLDY W AND CHC TO SLGT CHC SHRA, RESPECTIVELY. MARINE...BUOY020 CHECKS IN AT 3 FEET PER 8 SECONDS WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND 12G16KT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER TX COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 7 TO 9 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS PROBABLE BY MONDAY. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY... BRO BE 076/092 076/086 069 10/10/00/40/30 HRL BE 075/092 075/086 068 10/10/00/40/30 MFE BE 075/093 076/086 067 10/10/10/40/30 RGC BE 074/094 074/088 066 10/10/10/40/30 SPI BE 079/085 080/084 070 10/10/00/40/30 SYNOPTIC...59 AVIATION-MARINE-MESO...65 INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO .BRO...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 850-700MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS/NEAR NW ZONES...WHILE SURFACE FRONT WELL INTO S-CENTRAL TX. FLOW OVER SHALLOW COOL DOME THAT MOVE THROUGH YESTERDAY IS SELY...ALLOTTING FOR SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOCAL RISES ON THE 310-315K SURFACES AT/JUST BLO 700-750MB. WEAK CAA AT MID LVLS AS WELL WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME WEAK... ELEVATED INSTABILITY (GENERALLY AT/BLO 500 J/KG) ACROSS THE W/NW ZONES AS WELL. MID LVL CLOUDS AND ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE RESULT AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE PER RUC/META TRENDS...MAINLY NW OF D/FW. WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT SPURTING THE OCCASIONAL...ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD AND AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...WILL LEAVE THUNDER IN. TWEAKED AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST...DUE TO CLOUDS AND SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM ANY SHOWERS. MID 80S SE ZONES STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...SHOULD BECOME EAST 5-10KTS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES PUSHING EAST AWAY FROM NORTH TX. FCSTID = 05/ DFW 83 65 81 56 / 0 20 70 30 ACT 85 67 84 58 / 10 30 50 70 PRX 81 61 80 55 / 0 20 70 30 DTO 79 63 79 52 / 0 20 70 30 TKI 79 63 79 52 / 0 20 70 30 DAL 83 66 81 56 / 0 20 70 30 TRL 83 66 81 56 / 0 20 70 30 CRS 83 66 85 57 / 0 30 50 60 TPL 85 69 86 59 / 10 30 40 70 .FWD... TX...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 657 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 WAA SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED NE CWFA WHERE 8H BASED LI'S ARE NEAR ZERO TO MINUS 1. RUC SUGGEST WAA SHRA POSSIBLE THRU MORNING...MINIMAL THUNDER CONCERNS WITH 7H-5H LR'S 6-6.5 C/KM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG 300K SFC GETTING UNDERWAY WITH LOW CLOUD SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT SHOWING LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY PUSHING W-N ATTM. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWS/3H HEIGHTS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS NRN ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW DROPPING S THRU CA AS SHRTWV TROF MOVES E INTO MN. ALL MODELS WAY BEHIND ON THIS MORNINGS MSTR RTRN. PRESSURE FALLS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST THIS PM AS POTENT NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF DROP SE INTO MT. CONTINUED PRESSURE FALLS/DEEPENING OF NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE FORMATION OF LLJ/LOW CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AM WHILE UPPER LOW SETS-UP IN NRN BAJA. WILL INCREASE POPS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LR'S CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. NRN STREAM TROF TO DRIVE FRONT S INTO W TX/SE NM SUNDAY AFTER 18Z AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT POPS. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE CLOUDY (MVFR CONDITIONS NOT SO GOOD FOR THIS WEEKENDS AIRSHOW). MSL GRADIENT WORTH AT LEAST 15-25 MPH AND GUSTY WITH FRONT SUNDAY PM...POSSIBLY A CAT HIER DEPENDING ON ISALLOBARIC/TEMP GRADIENTS. BY EARLY MON AM IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WAA/STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE I300K-315K WILL RESULT IN THCK LOW CLOUDS FM MAF SWWD. MEANWHILE LIFT ASSOCD WITH BAJA LOW/LEAD SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE IN W TX/SE NM THUS POPS CONTINUED. AS BAJA LOW BEGINS TO MOVE E IT WEAKENS FINALLY MOVING E BY LATE TUESDAY. PRELIMS MAF 84/62/83/53 123 LSA 84/59/77/51 -23 6R6 86/65/85/57 233 MRF 83/55/83/50 223 CNM 86/59/81/52 223 .MAF... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 753 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2002 UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TO LIGHTEN THE WINDS OVER VERMONT TO BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH. LATEST RUC AND ETA SHOW WINDS IN THIS RANGE AND FIT WITH CURRENT TRENDS. .BTV...NONE. $$ SISSON vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 505 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002 AT 22Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER...TO A SMALL SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KFSD. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA HAS SHOWN THAT THE FRONT HAS BEEN INCREASING IN STRENGTH. THE RUC SUPPORTS THIS...SHOWING AN INCREASING TREND OF FORCING IN THE LOWER LAYERS ALONG THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE 18Z RUNS OF THE RUC/ETA/AVN ALL SUGGEST THAT THIS FORCING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE SEE NO REASON WHY SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT CONTINUE. THIS HAS NECESSITATED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THIS PRECIPITATION. .LSE...NONE. KRC wi INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 330 AM PDT SUN OCT 6 2002 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS PLACE THE UPPER LOW CENTER EAST OF SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION... WILL EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO START DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER FLOW IS CURRENTLY NORTHERLY TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOWING A GOOD OFFSHORE FLOW. WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND TODAY AND EVEN INTO MONDAY AS VALLEY HIGHS COULD REACH INTO THE 90S ON MONDAY. WILL NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THE WINDS TODAY AS THE GRADIENTS REMAIN VERY RELAXED. THE SFO-LAS PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ONLY 0.6MB AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY MORNING WITH OTHER DIRECTIONS SHOWING SIMILAR AMOUNTS THIS MORNING. AND AGAIN...UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE... WILL NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AFFECTS THE DISTRICT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL RUN WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARMING THINGS UP TODAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE STARTING THE COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN BY THAN WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. DURING THAT TIME...WILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR COOLING OF A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS TIME THE NEXT TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY. MOLINA FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WEDNESDAY. 850-MB TEMPERATURES DROP BY ABOUT 1 DEGREE C...SO WILL COOL THE REGION BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING...STRENGTH AND PATH. CONSENSUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING COORDINATION CALLS WAS TO GO WITH THE GFS...AS IT HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE MEDIUM-RANGE PATTERNS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. THE GFS HAS 4 DEGREES C COOLING AT 850-MB THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH 80 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR THE 850-700-MB LAYER. WILL GO WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLING THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY...EXCEPT AT THE LOWER LEVELS WHERE THE MARINE AIR WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COOLING. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO/S SACRAMENTO...LAS VEGAS AND RENO...WILL ADD CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 700-MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE -5 TO -6 C...WITH 1000-500-MB THICKNESSES OF 5520 METERS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A SNOW LEVEL OF AROUND 5500-6000 FEET. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FOR DRY WEASTHER AND A FEW DEGREES TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. SANGER .HNX...NONE. ca WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 316 AM MDT SUN OCT 6 2002 CLOSED LOW IN PLACE OVER SRN CA AND SWRN AZ. RUC AND SATELLITE SHOW IT NOT CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE EAST. RUC FORECAST SHOWS THIS CURRENT AND SHORTTERM TREND AND THEN SLIDES THE 500 MB LOW SSE INTO NW MEXICO LATER TODAY. NOT SURE IF EARLIER MODELS AND 12-HR RUC FORECAST MAY BE TAKING THIS LOW TOO FAR SOUTH AND THUS DECREASING THE CHANCE OF PCPN OVER SW CO MON. WILL KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS MON AFTN FOR CO/UT FOUR CORNERS REGION. GENERALLY DRY SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER CWA THRU TUE. LOW CLOUDS OVER NRN MTNS AND NW PLATEAU HAVE DISSIPATED. ONLY OCCASIONAL THIN BANDS OF MID LVL CLDS WILL PERIODICALLY TRAVEL OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW. WILL DECREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE SHORTTERM. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH STEADY WARMING TREND. CJC (WED-SAT)...WEAK ZONAL RELATIVELY DRY FLOW WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES IT ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED SHOWERS FOR MOUNTAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER ALL CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RESULT. MPM .GJT...NONE. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 228 AM MDT SUN OCT 6 2002 FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS TODAY AND MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. ONE SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM REMAINS CUTOFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA BUT MAIN COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE IT IS STAYING WELL NORTH. AT JET LEVEL...STILL A POWERFUL JET PUSHING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST. ETA/AVN ARE HANDLING THE 130-150 KNOT JET THE BEST WITH THE ETA HAVING A SLIGHT EDGE. AT MID LEVELS...COMPARED TO SATELLITE...THE RUC/AVN WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ETA/AVN DID THE BEST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON THE HEIGHT FIELD. HOWEVER...AVN IS DOING BETTER WITH HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND WITH CUTOFF SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALSO AVN IS BEST ON FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE FAST WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. AT LOW LEVELS...ETA/AVN TENDED TO OUTDO THE OTHER IN DIFFERENT AREAS. AVN DID BETTER WITH LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ETA DID BETTER ON TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE AVN DID BETTER OUT WEST. A BLEND OF THE ETA AND AVN SEEMS IN ORDER. FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...JET DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKED UP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. BUT THAT ACTIVITY AND THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ARE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA. AREA STAYS IN FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE DURING THIS TIME. AS FOR THE WINDS TODAY. THE BEST DOWNWARD MOTION IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE TIME THE BEST DOWNWARD MOTION WORKS INTO THE AREA...THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS IN THE EASTERN LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE NORTHEAST AS WELL. WILL GO WITH THE NGM/ETA MOS AND ETA 2 METER WHICH HAS BEEN DOING THE BEST FOR MAXES. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT PLUS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP. IN FACT...GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT MINS WILL BE REACHED AROUND 06Z... AND THEN TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. SO TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FROST/FREEZE CRITERIA. FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FAST WESTERLY FLOW/JET DYNAMICS/SHORTWAVES LOOK TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION/PREFRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF MONDAY NIGHT FRONT. MAXES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND WILL GO CLOSE TO THE NGM MOS/ETA 2 METER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...JET FINALLY STARTS MOVING AWAY DURING THE DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TODAY. SINCE IT IS A SIMILIAR SETUP...MAXES LOOK REASONABLE. MINS ALOS LOOK REASONABLE. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME. .GLD...NONE. BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 315 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP CHANCE FIRST PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. ONLY INITIALIZATION PROBLEM TO NOTE WAS THE 850 HPA WIND FIELD IN THE AVN MODEL. WIND SPEEDS WERE GROSSLY OVERDONE AT 850 HPA. THE ETA AND AVN MODEL ARE SIMILAR THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE ETA IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE S/W TROUGH PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FIRST PERIOD ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. AVN PLASTERING 25-30KTS SUSTAINED AT THE SURFACE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW GETS GOING TO THE EAST OF CWA. 3 AND 6 HOURLY PRESSURE TENDENCIES DEPICTED BY THE MODELS ARE NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED THE ETA MODEL TO BE DOING A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD AND PRESSURE TENDENCIES. THIS MODEL DOES NOT PROMOTE EXCESSIVE WINDINESS TODAY. NEITHER DOES ANY OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...AM CONTENT TO LEAVE 20 TO 30 MPH WORDING IN THE GRIDS AND ALLOW FOR AN UPGRADE SHOULD IT COME TO THAT. LATEST RUC DATA SET REVEALED THAT BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/JET SUPPORT AND LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS IN OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE CHANCE WORDING FOR RAIN IN GRIDS OUT THERE WITH REFLECTIVITY TREND THIS MORNING SHOWING MOST OF PRECIP STEERING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. WAA AT 850 HPA AND 700 HPA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. UPPED THE TEMPS IN THE WEST TO LOW TO MID 70S AS PER ETA 925 HPA TEMP PROGS AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORT GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL BE EMBEDDED IN WNW ZONAL FLOW REGIME...AND IS NOT PROGGED TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UVV ATTM. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP FOURTH AND FIFTH PERIODS DRY FOR NOW. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. .ABR...NONE. DORN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002 LARGE SCALE CHANGES EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THIS FCST CYCLE. PATTERN WAS INITIALLY QUITE HIGH AMPLITUDE...WITH LNGWV TROF OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALREADY DEAMPLIFYING. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST CYCLE. REAMPLIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN LATE NEXT WK...WITH MEAN TROF REFORMING BACK OVER THE WRN STATES. HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL SUPPORT ONE MORE STG CYCLONE THAT WL MV ACRS THE AREA TDA. INTENSE DYNAMICS WL GENERATE VERY STG LIFT...AS INDICATED BY WIDESPREAD PCPN DESPITE LACK OF GULF MOISTURE. CONCERN IS 06Z RUC WHICH SHOWED UPR SYSTEM DIGGING MORE. MORE SLY TRACK OF VORT COULD CAUSE HVY PCPN IN COMMA HEAD TO LINGER FAR N-C WI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. PCPN FCST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TDA BASED ON LAST MINUTE STLT/RADAR TRENDS. WINDS ALSO A CONCERN TDA. AGAIN...06Z RUC MUDDLED THE PICTURE. NORMALLY EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS ABOUT 100 MI RIGHT OF TRACK OF VORT. THAT RULE APPLIED TO MORE SLY TRACK OF SYSTEM ON RUC WOULD SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS STAYING S OF MY FCST AREA. HOWEVER...LATEST METARS INDICATED 38KT AND 45 KT WIND GUSTS IN SWRN ND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF VORT TRACK. THUS WL GO WITH WIND ADVISORY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. START TIME HELD BACK IN N-C WI TO ACCOUNT FOR LIGHTER WINDS AS SFC LOW TRACKS ACRS THAT AREA. WL RUN ADV ALL NGT IN DOOR COUNTY AS COLD AIR POURING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE BAY WL HELP MAINTAIN DEEP MIXED LAYER. WINDS WL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ELSEWHERE TNGT...BUT SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR. QUIET WX EXPECTED MON...THEN NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA MON NGT. PLENTY OF MID-LVL MOISTURE AND CLDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ENOUGH GRADIENT TO GENERATE SOME WIND AT NGT. THUS WARMER FWC/MAV TEMPS PREFERRED TO COOLER MET. HOWEVER FLATTER MEAN PATTERN MEANS SYSTEM WL NOT BE NEARLY AS STG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO...SO CHC CAT POPS SEEMED THE WAY TO GO. SINCE GULF MOISTURE LIKELY TO REMAIN S OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WK. FLATTER MEAN PATTERN WL CONT TO SUPPORT ONLY WK SYSTEMS...SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SIG PCPN DURING THE REST OF UPCOMING WORK WEEK. STUCK WITH PREV FCST WHICH WAS DRY UNTIL SAT. NEW MEX GUID TEMPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS IN PREV FCST...SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. REAMPLIFICATION NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN WITH TEMPS BACK ABV SEASONAL NORMALS. COORD WITH MKE...LSE...DLH...AND MQT. .GRB...WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WIZ005-010>012-018-019- WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WIZ013-020-021-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074- WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WIZ022- SKOWRONSKI WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1125 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2002 LATEST SATELLITE/RUC SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIP HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AS THE AIRMASS HAS MIXED OUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THE AIRMASS HAS SOME INSTABILITY WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6 DEGREES...CAPES OF AROUND 2500 TO 3000. ALSO A 700 MB SHORT WAVE WILL BE COMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. SO HAVE INCREASED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PUT IN LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE. SINCE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED TO THE EARLY 80S ALREADY. LAST BUT NOT LEAST HAVE PUT IN A WIND SHIFT FOR TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT IN THE NORTH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. .JAN... AR...NONE LA...NONE MS...NONE 17 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1010 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2002 SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION... A BAND OF SC CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...STEERED BY A RELATIVELY DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. IF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH...IT WILL SKIRT THE TWIN FORKS AND PASS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. OTHERWISE...IT WILL PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND HEAD TOWARD THE NJ COAST. AT 13Z...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KMSS...WAS 1029 MB...ALTHOUGH THE ETA AND RUC MODELS COME CLOSEST...ALL MODELS HAVE UNDER FORECAST THIS HIGH DEVELOPMENT...AND HEREIN LIES ONE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PROBLEM: THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...WITH A NEW MOON PRODUCING HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TODAY AND AN INCREASING EASTERLY FETCH...TIDES WHICH ARE NOW RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST BY ANY MODEL...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT HIGH TIDES ACROSS THE COAST...WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED COASTAL MARINE FORECAST. OUR CURRENT LAND FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I'M NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. ...THIS IS THE 349 AM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARLY OVER THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF THE NORTHEAST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 3 AM...THE CITY AND SURROUNDING SUBURBS AND LONG ISLAND HAVE NUDGED BELOW 60 DEGREES... NEW JERSEY AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT ARE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE 50S... AND THE INLAND AREAS NORTH AND WEST ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. QUITE A CONTRAST FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHEN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SUBSIDE...WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS REPORTING AROUND 10 MPH IN THE CITY AND LONG ISLAND...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM 5 MPH...DOWN TO CALM. SHORT-TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND OVER OUR AREA TODAY...SLIDING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL QUICKLY MARCH TOWARD THE EAST COAST...MAKING IT TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY WITH TIMING REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S FRONT...PERHAPS ONLY SLIGHTLY QUICKER. ONCE AGAIN...MOST OF THE DYNAMICS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH...AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL QUEBEC PROVINCE BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WE WILL LIKELY BE DEPRIVED OF ANY WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS...AND BE LEFT WITH LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. TIMING FOR THE THREAT OF A SHOWER CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE IN A WINDOW FROM ABOUT 10Z-20Z MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. AFTER THAT...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND THE PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE. MID-RANGE...MAPS FROM HPC INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN. DROUGHT...AT THE MOMENT I WOULD EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF RAIN EXISTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...NO GOOD NEWS ON THIS FRONT. MARINE...THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 15 KTS ON THE OCEAN. I WOULD SUSPECT THAT THE WINDS ON THE SOUND ARE LOWER JUDGING FROM THE COASTAL CONNECTICUT METAR OBSERVATIONS. WAVE WATCH III MODEL HAS BEEN REMARKABLE CONSISTENT AND ACCURATE RECENTLY WITH THE WAVES OF LATE. CURRENTLY...WE ARE RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT...AND THE MODEL DOES CALL FOR THE 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN. PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE THIS INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD...BUT WILL START TO SUBSIDE THE SEAS OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...THINKING THAT WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR MONDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS REALLY CALM DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS 15 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT...15 TO 20 KTS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN 15 KTS OR LESS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WAA LATE TONIGHT BRINGS IN CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING. CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ355-353-350. PUBLIC...JK AVIATION...DW $$ GC ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1020 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2002 12Z CHS SNDG REVEALS MUCH LESS LOW LVL MSTR AND QUITE A MID LVL CAP AT 3.3 C. MODIFIED SNDG TO 86/72 STILL GAVE SOME INHIBITION ENERGY. RUC H5 VORT LINGERING JUST TO THE W TDY WITH BEST INSTABILITY ACRS SRN PTN CWFA. WEAK FNT MOVG ACRS NRN SXNS THIS MORN WITH HIGH PRES BLDG TO THE N. FNT WASHES OUT ACRS AREA THIS AFTN WITH LGT NLY FLOW BCMG ONSHORE WITH A SEABREEZE COMP. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FCST GIVEN PSBL FOCUS ALG FNTL BNDRY OR SEABREEZE...HOWEVER CONVECTION SHUD BE ISOLD. LTL CHG TO TEMPS THIS AFTN WITH MID TO UPR 80S EXPECTED. WILL CONT WITH PTCLDY SKIES WITH SOME SC OR AC DVLPMT DURG THE AFTN AND REMOVE MENTION OF MORN FOG. MARINE...VSBYS HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST. A NEBULOUS GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT...ALMOST VRBL WINDS OVER THE WATERS WHILE A STRONGER NE SURGE WAS DEVELOPING N OF HAT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. N/NE WINDS HAVE DROPPED AS FAR S AS GEORGETOWN (PER WFO ILM MESONET PRODUCT) AND EXPECT THEM TO SLOWLY BLEED INTO THE SC WATERS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE GA WATERS...SUSPECT WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE VRBL THAN NE. AREA BUOYS INDICATE SWELLS FROM KYLE ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING RESULTING IN LOWER SEAS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS SO WILL LOWER SEAS JUST A TAD. TIDES...WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING PREVENTED TIDAL DEPARTURES FROM REACHING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS. TODAY/S PREDICTED LEVELS ARE 0.1-0.2 FT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY BUT IS STILL 0.1-0.2 FT BELOW SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA. WE MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL MON BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE A FINAL DECISION WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. .CHS... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. JC/ST sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 615 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002 ...AVIATION DISCUSSION... RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATES TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC40 SUGGESTS THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A LINE AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT TAF SET HAS OVERALL TREND FOR THE DAY COVERED...AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING...WITH BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO APPROACH WACO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS FOLLOWING FROPA. 65/DD ...PREVIOUS PUBLIC DISCUSSION... COMPLEX...EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AS THE ATMOSPHERE ATTEMPTS TO JUMP FROM THE WARM SEASON INTO FALL. A MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITION CONTINUES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S. WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. THE OTHER MAJOR PLAYER IS A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM CUTTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A COOL FRONT INTO TEXAS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE ALSO IS NOT AS STRONG... AND THE FRONT WEAKENS AS ITS FORWARD PROGRESS SLOWS IN SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS... CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE WILL PLAY THE INITIAL CONVECTION DOWN A BIT (AS PER THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z KAIN/FRITCH ETA RUN). PRECIP COMES RIGHT BACK INTO THE PICTURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE STJ AND A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVE ACROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR OVER NORTH TEXAS. WE WILL GO A BIT ABOVE MOS PRECIP GUIDANCE TONIGHT...BUT STICK RATHER CLOSE TO MOS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. ...ADDITIONAL COMMENTS AS OF 445 AM... WE HAVE WORDED THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS BEING MINIMAL TODAY...IN THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS OR HAIL. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUR UNCERTAINTY ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND HAS INCREASED BECAUSE OF DIVERSE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE MRF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EUROPEAN. ONE SHOWS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (MRF)...WHEREAS THE EURO HAS THE SAME SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER WEST. THUS...WE HAVE ADDRESSED THE UNCERTAINTY BY LOWERING POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE. WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT MODEL RUNS TO REEVALUATE. FCSTID =26 DFW 91 60 78 53 / 30 60 10 0 ACT 92 62 79 57 / 20 60 40 0 PRX 90 56 76 51 / 30 50 0 0 DTO 88 57 77 51 / 30 50 0 0 TKI 88 57 77 51 / 30 50 0 0 DAL 90 59 78 55 / 30 60 10 0 TRL 91 60 78 54 / 30 60 10 0 CRS 93 61 78 56 / 30 60 20 0 TPL 93 63 79 57 / 20 60 40 0 .FWD... TX...NONE. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 315 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2002 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW DEEPENING TROF OVR THE NCNTRL CONUS WITH 130KT H3 JET MAX/H5 COLD POCKET NR -30C DIGGING SE FM SW CAN INTO NRN PLAINS ON BACK SIDE OF UPR TROF. AT 15Z WELL DEFINED SHRTWV ON WV LOOP APRNT MOVG INTO SRN MN...WITH SFC LO AT 1007MB OVR NW WI. BASED ON SFC OBS SHOWING SHARP WIND CNVGC OVR THE WRN CWA...XPCT LO TO TRACK NE TOWARD MAX PRES FALLS (6MB/3HR) OVR CNTRL LK SUP. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LO...GRADIENT TO E OF SYS SHARP ENUF TO BE CAUSING SE WIND GUSTS ARND 40 MPH OVR EXPOSED LK MI SHORELINE ZNS. CLASSIC COMMA CLD STRUCTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS VIGOROUS SHRTWV. MAIN BODY OF CLD LEAF/AREA OF STEADY RA IN WAD PATTERN AHD OF SFC/H85 LO AND LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 70KT H5 JET MAX IN NE IA/RRQ OF 130KT H3 JET MAX AT CWZC EXITING ERN CWA AS DRY SLOT MOVG INTO THE WRN ZNS. DESPITE THESE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS... NO LTG STRIKES WITH SYS YET AS LIMITED ABSOLUTE MSTR (12Z PWAT 0.69 INCH AT GRB) AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES INHIBITING CNVCTN. SOME SHRA DVLPG ACRS CNTRL WI THIS AFTN AS SFC LO SHIFTING INTO SCNTRL LK SUP. COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE NOTED OVR NCNTL MN ON CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT MAX...AND AIR IS COLD ENUF HERE (SFC TEMP AS LO AS MID 30S/H85 TEMP 0 TO -2C) FOR SN. WNDS/PCPN TYPE ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORM SYS MAIN FCST CONCERN IN SHORT TERM. FOCUS FOR LATE MON INTO WED TURNS TO ANOTHER SYS FCST TO MOVE IN FM THE PLAINS. FOR TNGT...12Z MODELS ALL SHOW SFC LO DEEPENING TO 994-998MB AND MOVG TO A POSITION JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z. HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN VIGOROUS DYNAMICS THAT LO PRES WL NOT DEEPEN MORE...BUT VERIFICATION OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAKER PREVIOUS FCSTS MORE ON TRACK. SO WL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE WITHOUT MUCH MODIFICATION. SHARPEST PRES GRADIENT/CYC FLOW/NLY FLOW PROGGED TO SHIFT W TO E ACRS LK SUP/CWA TNGT AND E OF CWA BY 12Z. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH FCST LLVL WND FIELDS AND OTHR DYNAMICS THAT LOOKED POTENT YDAY. ALSO...FCST PASSAGE OF H5 VORT MAX TO S OF CWA AND RELATIVELY WEAK LLVL CAD NOT FVRBL FOR VERY HI WIND. EVALUATION OF HI WND CHKLIST USING ETA DATA INDICATES MINIMAL HI WND ADVY OVR EXPOSED LOCATIONS OF KEWEENAW/ALGER/LUCE ZNS. HAVE OPTED TO DROP WND HEADLINES EVERYWHERE XCPT ZN GROUPINGS WHERE PREVIOUS FCST SHOWED HI WND WRNG...THAT IS CMX-KEWEENAW-ALGER-LUCE...AND WL GO WITH ONLY HI WND ADVY THESE PLACES. AS FOR PCPN...WRAP ARND MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH H5 VORT MAX PASSING S OF CWA AND COINCIDENT WITH H5 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMP DOWN AS LO AS -31C OVR WRN LK SUP. WOULD XCPT PRESENT SCT SHRA TO BCM WDSPRD AS COMMA HEAD TRACKS ACRS CWA THIS EVNG. BUT EXIT OF DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AHD OF COMMA HEAD MSTR INDICATES STRUCTURE WL BEGIN TO COLLAPSE A BIT. IN FACT...ETA H85-5 RH PROGS INDICATE MEAN H85-5 RH DECREASES A BIT TNGT. SYS ALSO FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND DEEPER COMMA HEAD MSTR PRESENT FOR ONLY ABOUT 6 HRS. DEEPER MSTR PROGGED TO SHIFT E OF ERY ARND 09Z. OFFSETTING THE LOSS OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS POTENTIAL LK SUP IMPACT WITH VIGOROUS CYC FLOW ACTING AS AN ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM DESPITE LOSS OF DYNAMICS. UPSTREAM INL SDNG NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH SUBSIDENCE INVRN AT H85 AND SOME DRY AIR BLO THE INVRN...BUT THIS SDNG DOES NOT APPEAR REPRESENTATIVE OF CHANGING CONDITIONS. ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW NRLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE WITH ONLY A WEAK INVRN ARND H7...WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY ENHANCED BY ARRIVAL OF H5 THERMAL TROF. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS OVR LK SUP BORDER ZNS BUT CUT TO CHC/SCT OVR THE SE WHERE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW COINCIDENT WITH BEST MSTR. ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVRN STRENGTHENING AT H85 OVRNGT FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEP MSTR...BUT MODEL ALSO HINTS AT DRIER AIR (NOW AT INL) FEEDING IN BLO INVRN LATER. SO PURE LK EFFECT PCPN SHUD BE MINIMAL. ETA INDICATES AIR COLD ENUF TO SUPPORT SN WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTR DEPARTURE OF DEEPER MSTR. SO SN SHUD FALL OVR ONLY HIER TERRAIN DURG PD OF RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE PURE LK EFFECT PCPN AND AMT TO LTL IF ANY ACCUM WITH FAIRLY STRG NWLY FLOW ADVCTG LK MODERATED AIR INLAND OVR WARM GRND. WL MENTION A SLUSHY INCH PSBL OVR HIER TERRAIN...BUT NO MORE. BY MON MRNG...XPCT NOTHING MORE THAN LINGERING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES IN CYC FLOW NR LK SUP. WITH DRIER LLVL AIR FEEDING IN...XPCT CLRG LATE TNGT OR EARLY MON ACRS SCNTRL ZNS...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM MNM TO ESC. THEN AS SFC HI PRES RDG MOVES IN...XPCT LINGERING LK CLD ACRS THE NCNTRL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING. BUT CLRG WL BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS ADVERTISE INCRSG INSENTROPIC LIFT ON 295K SFC (ARND H75) MOVG IN AHD OF NXT SHRTWV DROPPING ESE THRU SCNTRL CAN LATE ON MON. BUT LLVLS WL REMAIN PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR PCPN THRU EVNG WITH ABSENCE OF ANY UPR JET SUPPORT/DVGC. MOS FCST TEMPS LOOK RSNBL GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPS IN THE NRN PLAINS TDAY. MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 290K SFC CONTG MON NGT. HOWEVER...OTHR DYNAMIC FORCG PRETTY MUCH ABSENT WITH HINT OF ONLY ILL DEFINED H3 JET MAX WITHOUT ANY UPR DVGC MOVG TOWARD NW GRT LKS OVRNGT WELL AHD OF MAIN SHRTWV STILL IN SCNTRL CAN/SFC LO IN NW MN. THIS FCST SUPPORTS GOING CHC POPS. ALSO SOME QUESTION AS TO PCPN TYPE WITH EARLIER FCST SHOWING A MIX OF RA/SN PSBL. BUT SINCE TEMPS XPCTD TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S TMRW AND WAD CLD RUSHES IN BEFORE ANY COOLING AFTR SUNSET...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE GOOD SETUP FOR SN SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. ETA FCST H100-85 THKNS ALSO FCST TO BE NO LWR THAN 1310M. ON THE OTHR HAND...SFC DWPTS PROGGED IN THE MID 20S AT TIME PCPN CHCS BEGIN. BUT ETA FCST SDNGS INDICATE TEMP HI ENUF SO THAT WBZ HGT ARND 1.5K FT AT TIME MODEL GENERATES QPF. LACK OF SGNFT UVV ALSO WL LIMIT SN CHCS. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE PSBL SN FM FCST. MIN TEMPS SHUD OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE NGT WITH EVAP COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY PCPN. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE CLD COVER AND WAD WL HOLD TEMP STEADY. MOS MINS APPEAR SVRL DEGREES TOO LO GIVEN FCST WBLB TEMP AND CLDS/WAD. ON TUE...MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV PROGGED TO MOVE CLOSER FM THE PLAINS WITH SFC LO REACHING WRN LK SUP BY 00Z WED. COMBINATION OF CONTG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ON 295K SFC (H7-75) AND SOME H3-2 DVGC/PVA AHD OF SHRTWV WARRANTS UPGRADE TO LIKELY POPS AS SHOWN BY NGM MOS GUIDANCE OVR THE N...WHERE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCG ASSOCIATED WITH SFC-H85 WARM FNT MAY COME INTO PLAY AS WELL. SRN ZNS APPEAR S OF MAIN FRONTAL ZN...SO WL CARRY ONLY CHCY POPS THERE. WITH TEMPS WELL IN THE 40S N/50S S PER FVRD AVN/NGM MOS...NO QUESTION AS TO PCPN TYPE. SFC LO SHIFTS ACRS LK SUP TUE NGT AND INTO QUEBEC BY LATE WED. PCPN WL END W TO E AS DRY AIR ALF FOLLOWS SHRTWV TUE NGT INTO EARLY WED. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LK EFFECT PCPN WL DVLP IN FAIRLY TIGHT CYC FLOW IN WAKE OF SYS AFTR DEPARTURE OF UPR DYNAMICS. AVN/ETA SHOW H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -2C/-3C BEHIND SFC LO...MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT WITH LK SUP TEMP ARND 10C. SINCE GOING FCST SHOWS CHC -SHRA NR LK SUP...WL MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS ATTM. XPCT SOME PARTIAL CLRG OVR THE S TUE NGT. INCRSG SUNSHINE EVERYWHERE ON WED WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG. EXTENDED MODELS CONT TREND FOR ZONAL FLOW MID WEEK TO EVOLVE TO A MORE WRN TROF/ERN RDG SCENARIO FOR LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON SPLIT OF POTENT SHRTWV DIGGING SSE THRU GLFAK. UKMET SHOWS SHRTWV REMAINING PRETTY MUCH INTACT AS IT CUTSOFF OVR GRT BASIN ON FRI...WITH SHARP UPR RDGING/SFC ACYC FLOW DVLPG OVR THE GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYS. CNDN MODEL SHOWS SHRTWV SPLITTING WITH STRONGEST PIECE PLOWING MORE W TO E ACRS SRN CAN AND MOVG INTO NRN PLAINS BY LATE FRI...WITH JUST A SML PIECE OF SHRTWV DROPPING INTO THE SW CONUS. ECMWF/MRF OFFER A SOLN IN BTWN WITH A FAIRLY VIGOROUS NRN AND SRN BRANCH SYS...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FNT ARRIVE IN THE NW GRT LKS FRI NGT. OPERATIONAL CNDN MODEL SOLN HAS EXCELLENT SUPPORT FM ALMOST ALL CNDN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND MAJORITY OF MRF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A MORE SPLIT SOLN WITH NRN BRANCH SHRTWV AT LEAST AS SHARP AS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV. SO FCST SCENARIO WL BE DRY ON THU...WITH WEAK SHRTWV CUTOFF FM GLFMEX MSTR UNABLE TO GENERATE PCPN...THEN INCRSG CLDS ON FRI IN ADVANCE OF NRN BRANCH SHRTWV...FOLLOWED BY SHRA CHCS SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA. HAVE OPTED TO GO DRY FOR NXT SUN AS SFC RDG FILLS IN BEHIND SAT SHRTWV. SINCE UPR FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL BEHIND SHRTWV PASSING TO N THRU ONTARIO...DEEP COLD AIR INTRUSION UNLIKELY...SO MINIMAL CHC FOR LK EFFECT PCPN ON SUN IN WAKE OF SHRTWV. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB. .MQT...HIGH WIND ADVY TONIGHT MIZ001-003-006-007. GALE WRNG LK SUP. KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1235 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2002 ...WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED... SFC OBS ARE INDICATING THAT LOW PRES MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED. THUS...WIND HEADLINES ARE MAIN CONCERN NOW BOTH IN WAKE OF SFC LOW...AND WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION ON NOSE OF VIGOROUS VORT MAX WHICH IS CURRENTLY RACING INTO WRN WI. SFC CHART FM LATE MORNING SHOWS DEVELOPING LOW (1006MB) OVR SW UPR MI...WITH 3HR PRES FALL MAX (-6MB) FM GRAND MARAIS TO STANNARD ROCK. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED TO 360 AT IWD SO LOW IS LIKELY BTWN MQT AND IMT. RADAR SHOWS MAIN BATCH OF RAIN CRUISING THROUGH ERN CWA...WITH DRYING TREND AT MQT/IMT/IWD. DLH RADAR SHOWING COLD CONVEYOR BELT (WRAPAROUND) PRECIP OVR ERN MN. FOLLOWING RUC H9-H8 DEFORMATION AXIS THIS PRECIP ROTATES JUST N OF VORT TRACK...BACK INTO NCTNRL UPR MI AFT 21Z. BULK OF DRY SLOT RESIDES OVR SCNTRL UPR MI. VIS SAT SHOWS PARTIAL CLEARING PRIMARILY INTO CNTRL/ERN WI...WITH IR SAT DEPICTING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MINIMUM INTO MUCH OF WRN UPR MI ATTM. CONCERNING PRECIP BASICALLY PREVIOUS FCST ON TRACK...WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA OVR N AND SHRA MORE SCT OVR SOUTH (FARTHER INTO DRY SLOT). MODIFIED 12Z MPX SOUNDING AND FOUND THAT WITH T/TD OF 58/52 AT ESC SBCAPES OF 500J/KG ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H85-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED AT AROUND 6.5C/KM. SCNTRL ZONES ARE ALSO ON NOSE OF H5/H7 SPEED MAXES...ADDING ADDITIONAL UVM. WIND FIELDS SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FM SW WITH 35-60KT FM H7-H5. SO MENTIONED STRONG WINDS IN THE ISOLATED TS FOR THESE AREAS. WINDS...ALL MODELS SETTLING ON 1001MB LOW OVR WAWA ONTARIO WITH WINDS IN MIXED LAYER (H85) IN WAKE OF SFC LOW UP TO 45 KT AT BEST THROUGH 03Z...AND WITHIN THAT 1000-900MB WINDS ONLY OF 30KT. AVN A BIT STRONGER SHOWING SFC WINDS OF 35KT AT 00Z OVR LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN TIER ZONES. HIGH WIND CHECKLIST POINTS TO AROUND ADVY CRITERIA ONLY ON KEWEENAW AND FM MQT-LUCE COUNTIES. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND LACK OF DEEPENING ON SFC LOW...WE HAVE ELECTED TO DOWNGRADE HIGH WIND WARNING TO HIGH WIND ADVISORY OVR KEWEENAW AND FOR ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. HAVE DROPPED HWA FOR EVERY OTHER COUNTIES. MODIFICATIONS WILL ALSO BE MADE TO LAKE SUPERIOR TO DROP STORM WARNING IN NEXT PACKAGE. COORD WITH APX/GRB/YQT. .MQT...HIGH WIND ADVY LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT MIZ001-003. HIGH WIND ADVY TONIGHT MIZ006-007. STORM WRNG LK SUPERIOR. JLA mi