FXUS63 KAPX 052100
AFDAPN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 PM EST WED MAR 5 2003

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED A BIT TODAY DESPITE SUNSHINE BUT MANAGED TO 
MAKE IT INTO THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE TODAY SO WINDS WERE LOWER.  

CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
SPREADING INTO CWA FROM CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH 
WILL AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS. VISIBLE/IR SAT SHOWS LARGE AREA OF 
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD.  
HOWEVER...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH OVER NORTHERN LAKES CONTINUES 
TO ERODE/HALT THE EDGE KEEPING CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH OF AREA OF 
CONCERN. ETA TRACKS NEXT SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN AVN/GFS. THIS 
TRACK INCREASES SOUTHERNLY FLOW AND USHERS IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE (DRY 
AIR AND HIGH DRIFT TO THE EAST) SOONER THAN AVN/GFS. WILL COMPROMISE 
BTWN THEN...EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SLOWLY INCREASE SOUTHWEST TO 
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER DARK 
AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS PROVIDE LITTLE BLANKET (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN 
UPPER). ACROSS THE STRAITS AND EASTERN UPPER WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE 
THIN EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL BELOW ZERO.  

THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION IN FULL FORCE AHEAD OF A 
LOW APPROACHING FROM CANADA.  THE RESULT WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES 
IN THE TEENS (ABOVE ZERO) AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW.  AS WINDS SHIFT 
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF LAKE EFFECT OR 
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AHEAD OF THE LOW.  DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF ICE KEPT 
AMOUNTS LIGHT BUT IF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS SEEN IN LATER RUNS AND 
THE LOW SLOWS...SNOW TOTALS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED.  FOR NOW HELD 
THEM AT 1-2 INCHES.  KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  PASSES 
QUICKLY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE.  LEAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 
COLD NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.    

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LONG RANGE MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEP A RATHER BROAD 
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST...AT TIMES ALMOST ZONAL FLOW WITH A STRONG 
JET RACING OVER THE AREA.  THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NEAR 
BUT TRAPPED NORTH OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW 
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THIS WILL BE A WARM UP FOR US.  THE 
CHANCE OF SNOW WILL REMAIN WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BROAD 
TROUGH...HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW 
GREATLY LIMITED THESE DAYS.  THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL 
NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF IT CAN TAP MOISTURE.

.APX...NONE.
$$
HIRSCH