AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KHNX 081300
 AFDHNX
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
 500 AM PST SUN FEB 8 2009
 
 .DISCUSSION...
 VERY BUSY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING STORM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
 INDICATE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO HE AREA
 TONIGHT AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A
 SUBTROPICAL TAP WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE COLD AIR IS QUITE
 SIGNIFICANT. HAVE ISSUED WARNINGS FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND KERN
 COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR THE FOOTHILLS.
 
 ONCE SNOW LEVELS START COMING DOWN BY LATE TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE
 SNOW LEVELS GET DOWN TO 2000 FEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN AS LOW AS
 1500 FEET. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUE THROUGH
 MONDAY EVENING OVER MANY AREAS.
 
 WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY DESSERT LATE THIS
 EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT
 DOWNSLOPE AREAS...INCLUDING MOJAVE WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS.
 
 THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN ANOTHER SYSTEM WED AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER
 THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE A QUICK HITTER AND IS SOMEWHAT MOISTURE
 STARVED. A MUCH DEEPER AND COLDER STORM IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
 NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR THE
 EXTENDED IS MEDIUM AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
 BRINGING SOMETHING IN HERE...BUT TIMING AND INTENSITY HAVE BEEN
 CHANGING FROM RUN TO RUN.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...MOISTURE BEHIND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL 
 CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA 
 NEVADA AND THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 00Z MONDAY. LOCAL IFR/LIFR 
 IS POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BETWEEN 10Z AND 18Z SUNDAY DUE 
 TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR UNTIL 03Z MONDAY. 
 THEREAFTER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW INTO CENTRAL 
 CALIFORNIA TONIGHT BRINGING A THREAT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...STRONG 
 WINDS AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURATION TO THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA 
 BY 06Z MONDAY THEN SPREADING SOUTH REACHING THE TEHACHAPIS BY 12Z 
 MONDAY. 
    
 
 &&
 
 .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
 NONE
 
 &&
 
 .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY 
 FOR CAZ096-097.
 
 WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ095.
 
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST 
 MONDAY FOR CAZ093-094.
 
 WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR 
 CAZ098-099.
 
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