Report
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I.
Background
II.
Nursing Supply Model
III.
Nursing Demand Model
IV.
Assessing the Adequacy of Future Supply
V.
Limitations of the Models and Areas for Future Research
VI.
References
Exhibits
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I.
Background
An adequate
supply of nurses is essential to achieving the Nation’s
goals of ensuring access to affordable, high-quality healthcare.
The adequacy of nurse supply varies geographically throughout
the Nation, with a general consensus that at the national
level currently a moderate shortage of registered nurses
(RN) exists. The findings of our analysis suggest that the
current RN shortage will continue to grow in severity during
the next 20 years if current trends prevail and that some
States face a more severe shortage than do others. The growth
and aging of the population, along with the Nation’s continued
demand for the highest quality of care, will create a surging
demand for the services of RNs over the coming 2 decades.
At the same time, because many RNs are approaching retirement
age and the nursing profession faces difficulties attracting
new entrants and retaining the existing workforce, the RN
supply remains flat.
The
mission of the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis
(NCHWA) in the Bureau of Health Professions (BHPr), Health
Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), is to collect,
analyze, and disseminate health workforce information and
facilitate national, State, and local workforce planning
efforts. To meet this mission as it pertains to the
nurse workforce, NCHWA collects data on the nurse workforce
through its quadrennial Sample Survey of Registered Nurses
(SSRN) and maintains two models to project the RN supply
and demand: the Nursing Supply Model (NSM) and the Nursing
Demand Model (NDM). In this paper, we provide a brief overview
of these two models; describe the data, methods, and assumptions
used to project RN supply and demand; present findings from
the models; and discuss the limitations of these and other
models and methods to forecast demand for health workers.
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