SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 230 PM MST SAT JAN 6 2001 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THREAT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP FOR MIDWEEK. CURRENTLY: TEMPERATURES MODERATED NICELY MOST AREAS WITH ONLY SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. 18Z RUC AND SAT SHOW VORT MAX OVER MONTANA FORECASTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO KANSAS BY SUNDAY 12Z. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH 700MB TEMPS GOING FROM PLUS 3C TO MINUS 12C OVERNIGHT. SURGE DOESN'T LAST LONG WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING ON MONDAY. TNGT: SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY DEPENDING ON CIRRUS COVERAGE. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG LOWER ARKANSAS AND EASTERN ZONES PER 12Z ETA THAT SHOWS AN INCREASE IN RH BEHIND COLD SURGE WITH SHALLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH COS EARLY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH CWA BY 09Z. WILL ADD MENTION OF NORTH WINDS TO EASTEN ZONES BUT JUST 10 TO 20 MPH. SUN THRU MONDAY: COOLER TEMPS BEHIND WEAK SURGE SHOULD BRING 10 TO 15 DEGREE COOL DOWN ESPECIALLY EAST OF MOUNTAINS. MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD DROP SHARPLY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING KICKS IN. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND ALTHOUGH ETA AND AVN FLIP/FLOP A BIT. WILL STAY CLOSER TO AVN GUIDANCE NUMBERS. TEMPS REBOUND SOME ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXTENDED(TUE-SAT): THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING. AVN AND MRF SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN. WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY MOVES EAST AS LONG WAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER EAST PAC. UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA MOVES EAST AND TAPS INTO SOUTHERN MOISTURE AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY. MOVEMENT OF LOW SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TROF OVER WEST COAST. AVN PROBABALY OVERDOING THE RH BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PROVIDE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PRECIP OTHER THAN MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATER RUNS. BY FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER WRN US AND UPPER LOW OVER SRN US SLIDES TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT AGAIN. KEPT CHC SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAINS WED-FRI BUT KEPT THINGS DRY ON SATURDAY AS WRLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. .PUB...NONE. FORTUNE co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 845 PM EST SAT JAN 06 2001 SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TROUGH OVER CENTRAL GA AND EXTENDING NE. HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN WEAK SW FLOW OVER THE SWRN FL CWA AND SE FLOW ALONG NE FL COAST. DEWPOINT HAS RISEN 15 DEG SINCE THIS AFTERNOON AT JAX PRESENTLY AT 36. LOWER DEWPOINTS LITTLE FURTHER INLAND WITH GNV AND OCF AT 29 AND 27 RESPECTIVELY. RUC AND MESO-ETA INDICATE HIGH PRES RIDGE ESTABLISHING OVER SPINE OF NRN FL BY LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD AID IN PRIME COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 40 RANGE IN THE SRN COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR. WILL GO WITH LIGHT FREEZE WARNING DOWN TO MARION COUNTY WITH LOWS NEAR 30. DURATIONS SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT OF AROUND 2-4 HOURS. THANKS FOR COORD TBW. MARINE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR UPDATE. .JAX... .GA...FREEZE WARNING GAZ132>136-149>153-162>165 TONIGHT. .FL...FREEZE WARNING FLZ020>025-030>032-035>037-040 TONIGHT. fl WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1137 AM EST SAT JAN 6 2001 AFTER COORD WITH FIRE WX FORECASTER AND KMLB...HAVE DECIDE TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...POLK... DESOTO...HARDEE...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS DRY AIR (DEW PTS IN THE 30S) COMBINES WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S RESULTING IN 4 OR MORE HOURS OF LOW RH VALUES AOB 35% THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HAVE ALSO POSTED A FIRE WX WATCH THROUGH SUNSET FOR HERNANDO...PASCO... HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...AND SARASOTO COUNTIES FOR MARGINALLY LOW RH DURATIONS. THESE CHANGES HAVE BEEN REFLECTED IN THE LATE MORNING SMOKE DISPERSION UPDATE. REST OF DISCUSSION UNCHANGED. CURRENTLY...JUST A FEW CLOUDS NOTED ALONG THE FL WEST COAST FROM KTPA SOUTH TO VENICE AND OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FA EARLY THIS MORNING... OTHERWISE M.SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. DRY NWLY FLOW WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. RATHER BRISK WINDS (20-30 KNOTS) NOTED ON 12Z RAOB DATA IN THE 2-4KFT RANGE...SO AS MIXING TAKES PLACE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOME (10-15 MPH RANGE) LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE PM HOURS. ONGOING ZONES COVER ALL OF THIS AND WITH 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING ONGOING EXPECTED MAX TEMPS...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. MARINE...BUOY TRENDS BEGINNING TO SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEA STATES FROM TARPON SPRINGS NORTH WHERE SCEC IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. LATEST RUC DEPICTS A CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE PM HOURS...SO PLAN TO DROP SCEC IN 1030 AM CWF UPDATE OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. FIRE WEATHER...CURRENTLY FIRE WX WATCH IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS... SUMTER...AND MY INTERIOR ZONES (POLK...HARDEE...DESOTO...AND HIGHLANDS) FOR MARGINALLY LOW RH DURATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED OR UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER THIS MORNING AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WX FCSTR WILL EVALUATE THIS THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND WILL ADJUST THE WATCH AREA OR ISSUE WARNINGS IN THE SMOKE DISPERSION UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. .TBW...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY...CITRUS... SUMTER...POLK...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...AND DESOTO COUNTIES. MCMICHAEL fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1025 AM EST SAT JAN 6 2001 CURRENTLY...MSAS SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSIS ALONG WITH GULF OF MEXICO AND COASTAL ATLANTIC WEATHER BUOY REPORTS INDICATES THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS EXPANDING OVER THE PENINSULA. VERTICAL PROFILERS AT CAPE CANAVERAL SHOW DECREASING WINDS SINCE 7 AM. CANAVERAL BUOYS RECORDING 3 FOOT SEAS AT 20NM AND 10 FOOT SEAS AT 120NM AND DIMINISHING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ZONE UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY CHANGES FOR NOW. MARINE UPDATE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL RESPOND A LITTLE SLOWER SO FOR NOW WILL WORD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS WELL OFFSHORE AND DECREASE THEM TO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA LATE AFTERNOON. FIRE WX...MID 30 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD BEHIND FNT/SFC TROF TODAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT DROP TO NEAR 30 DEGREES GIVEN ENOUGH VERTICAL MIXING. LATEST RUC SHOWING ABOUT 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DOWNWARD TREND CONFIRMED BY NASA PROFILERS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS NEAR CERTAIN OVER N HALF TODAY AS TEMPS RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE 60S. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TO WARNING FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING. .MLB...SCA FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OFFSHORE LEGS ...RED FLAG TIL SUNSET LAKE/VOLUSIA/ORANGE/SEMINOLE/OSCEOLA ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TIL SUNSET OKEECHOBEE/BREVARD/ INDIAN RIVER/ST. LUCIE/MARTIN PUBLIC/MARINE...WIMMER AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...SPRATT fl WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 953 AM EST SAT JAN 6 2001 CURRENTLY...JUST A FEW CLOUDS NOTED ALONG THE FL WEST COAST FROM KTPA SOUTH TO VENICE AND OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FA EARLY THIS MORNING... OTHERWISE M.SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. DRY NWLY FLOW WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. RATHER BRISK WINDS (20-30 KNOTS) NOTED ON 12Z RAOB DATA IN THE 2-4KFT RANGE...SO AS MIXING TAKES PLACE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOME (10-15 MPH RANGE) LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE PM HOURS. ONGOING ZONES COVER ALL OF THIS AND WITH 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING ONGOING EXPECTED MAX TEMPS...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. MARINE...BUOY TRENDS BEGINNING TO SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEA STATES FROM TARPON SPRINGS NORTH WHERE SCEC IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. LATEST RUC DEPICTS A CONTINUED DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE PM HOURS...SO PLAN TO DROP SCEC IN 1030 AM CWF UPDATE OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. FIRE WEATHER...CURRENTLY FIRE WX WATCH IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS... SUMTER...AND MY INTERIOR ZONES (POLK...HARDEE...DESOTO...AND HIGHLANDS) FOR MARGINALLY LOW RH DURATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED OR UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER THIS MORNING AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WX FCSTR WILL EVALUATE THIS THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND WILL ADJUST THE WATCH AREA OR ISSUE WARNINGS IN THE SMOKE DISPERSION UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. .TBW...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY...CITRUS... SUMTER...POLK...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...AND DESOTO COUNTIES. MCMICHAEL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 AM EST SAT JAN 6 2001 LATEST WV/RUC 500-MB COMPOSITE HAS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST W/ UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE SERN CONUS. 13Z HAND SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED BOUNDARY MARKING REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. MORNING SOUNDINGS REFLECT MOISTURE GRADIENT W/ TBW PWAT 0.45"...TLH & JAX PWAT 0.17 & 0.16" RESPECTIVELY. PREVAILING WINDS WERE LIGHT NWLY. LOW TEMPS BOTTOMED OUT IN THE MID-UPR 20S AT THE COLDEST INLAND LOCATIONS (TLH 27) W/ 30S W OF AQQ RIVER BASIN & ALONG THE COAST. SKIES WERE CLEAR CWFA-WIDE. MID MORNING TEMPS ON THE REBOUND W/ 30S TO LOWER 40S. HAVE ALREADY MIXED OUT STEEP (15-DEG) INVERSION NEAR 250 FT. SECOND INVERSION AROUND 900 FT SHOULD MIX OUT THIS AFTN W/ TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. CURRENT TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGS BELOW MOS...BUT INSOLATION & LIGHTER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD OFFSET COOL START. NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM. WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS W/ C-MANS AT 5 KTS & BUOYS 10-15 KTS. WILL LIKELY DROP SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 5-6 FT & EXPECT THIS DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MET W/O DIFFICULTY MOST INLAND FL ZONES THIS AFTN AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN (MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S). FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR COAST/SE BIG BEND ZONES LOOKS ON TRACK W/ MARGINAL DURATIONS OF RH <35%. .TLH... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTN INLAND FL BIG BEND/ERN FL PANHANDLE. FIRE WEATHER WATCH COAST AND SE BIG BEND ZONES THIS AFTN. FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL BUT ERN PANHANDLE COAST SUNDAY AFTN. MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1015 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2001 FZDZ HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS N LOWER THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE FIELDS WITH <55% RH IN THE 700-500 LAYER AND AROUND 95% AT 850. KAPX 88D SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NC LOWER ATTM. OBS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THAT THE DRIZZLE DOES TRY TO TURN TO FLURRIES MAINLY AROUND TVC ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DRIZZLE. RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BELOW 850) WILL BE IN NE LOWER AND AREAS IN NW LOWER MAINLY NORTH OF M-72. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE (700-500) DOESN'T RETURN UNTIL AROUND 12Z WHEN THE MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AND HELPS TO CHANGE THE DRIZZLE BACK TO SNOW. WILL BE ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LEAVE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES WORDING FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE ADVISORY. .APX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...OVERNIGHT... MIZ016>019-021>024-029-030. LUTZ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1005 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2001 FCST CONCERN IS ENDING FZDZ AND LES OVERNIGHT. TRICKY UPDATE TONIGHT AS THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS THAT WILL LEAD TO THE SENSIBLE WX TONIGHT. THE 850 LOW IS BY ALL ACCOUNTS NORTH OF MQT (NW-W WINDS ON THE VWP) AND THAT HAS KEPT THE CLOUD LAYER WARMER THAN -10C...AND FZDZ HAS RESULTED. COLDER AIR IS MOVING SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD CHANGE ALL OF THE FZDZ TO SNOW IF THAT HASN'T HAPPENED ALREADY. WILL FRESHEN WORDING TO REFLECT THIS ON THE UPDATE. AS FOR THE LES...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. ON WV LOOP...A SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV IS OVER YQT AND WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. HOW MUCH EFFECT THIS WILL HAVE ON THE LES IS A BIG QUESTION AND WILL ULTIMATELY GOVERN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AT THE SFC...THE LO HAS TURNED INTO MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM P59 TO TVC. H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO -15C BY 12Z WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR LES...BUT THE AIR IS MOIST AND THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV. ONE THING THAT CERTAIN IS THAT THE WHOLE PATTERN IS SLOWER BY 3-6HRS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NE AROUND 09Z AT MQT AND IWD PER 00Z RUC. PER RADAR TRENDS AT 03Z...LES CONVERGENCE BANDS ARE STARTING TO FORM AND STRENGTH...SO WILL LEAVE ACCUMULATIONS THE SAME. NO CHANGES MADE PAST FIRST PERIOD. .MQT...NONE. ALTOE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 325 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2001 FCST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OVER UPPER LAKES REGION. ONE MOVING ACROSS LK HURON WITH THE OTHER OVER SW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC... LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SW LK SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE SNOW TODAY WAS GENERATED IN RESPONSE TO FIRST SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS HIGHER CLOUDS DEPARTING FA... AND KMQT RADAR SHOWS -SN DIMINISHING AS WELL. SOME ENHANCED CLOUDS NOTED WITH SHORTWAVE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...AND THIS WILL BE THE PLAYER IN POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT ACROSS THE N. LATEST KMQT RADAR IMAGES SHOW TELLTALE SIGNS OF POSSIBLE -FZDZ SPREADING IN FROM THE W...AND SPOTTER REPORTS CONFIRM THIS. DRY SLOT HAS SWEPT INTO FA AND WITHOUT ICE SEEDING FROM ABOVE NOW...LINGERING LIFT IS RESULTING IN -FZDZ AS SUBFREEZING TEMP PROFILE WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER IS WARMER THAN -10C PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. THUS... SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS INSTEAD OF ICE CRYSTALS. WILL INCLUDE -FZDZ ALL ZONES THIS EVENING UNTIL DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS. MODELS SHOW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER LK SUPERIOR TO E UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. FOR A BETTER LK ENHANCEMENT SETUP...WOULD LIKE TO SEE IT TRACK A BIT FARTHER S FOR BETTER LIFT AND LESS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER S LK SUPERIOR. AS IT IS NOW...KMQT 88D VWP SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW STEADILY VEERING TO W BY 9KFT MSL. ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LGT/VRBL WIND UP TO 6KFT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. WITH LK-850MB DELTA-T ONLY 14-15C TONIGHT...WILL NEED SOME ENHANCEMENT TO GET ANY SORT OF DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO CONFIDENCE IN ADVY TYPE SNOWFALL HAS DECREASED...AND THUS ADVY WAS DROPPED EARLIER THIS AFTN. WILL COUNT ON CIRCULATION EVIDENT N OF KINL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE THE INSTIGATOR OF SHSN AS IT CROSSES LAKE LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WITH NE FLOW DEVELOPING...GOOD DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND INVERSION RISING TO AROUND 7KT FT FOR A TIME...LOOKS LIKE 1-4 INCH TYPE SNOWS OVER W/NCNTRL. PROBABLY ANOTHER 1-3 ON SUN BEFORE SHSN REALLY DIMINISH AS INVERSION CRASHES TO 3KT FT WITH NOTABLE DRYING AROUND 850MB MAKING PROGRESS SE ACROSS LK. LK-850MB DELTA-T REMAINS FAVORABLE AROUND 15-16C RIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH N/NE FLOW PERSISTING. HOWEVER...LOW INVERSION AROUND 3KFT AND DRY AIR FLOWING ACROSS LK WILL KEEP LES LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...A QUIET COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO TRIGGER MUCH MORE THAN SOME FLURRIES. IN THE EXTENDED...MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MRF/CANADIAN/ECMWF/UKMET STILL SHOW UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS NAMERICA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ONE CHANGE IS THAT ALL BUT ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THRU RIDGE...PASSING N OF FA ON WED. BEST BAROCLINICITY IS N/NE OF FA...AND WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST TO THE N...WILL KEEP WED FCST DRY FOR NOW. BEYOND WED...FCST IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH ALL THE MODELS HAVING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH TIMING/STRENGTH AND POSITION OF SHORTWAVES IN SPLIT FLOW. CONTINUITY FOR RUN TO RUN HAS ALSO DIMINISHED. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM GOING FCST AS ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY BE HEADING NE IN SW FLOW DURING THE LAST HALF OF WEEK. NONE LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MIXED PRECIP STILL A POSSIBILITY...BUT IT IS JANUARY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF MIX POTENTIAL UNTIL SIGNAL IS CLEARER. COORD WITH YQT/APX...THANKS. .MQT...NONE. ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1050 AM EST SAT JAN 6 2001 12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW TWO VORT MAXES OF INTEREST...ONE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND ONE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER CLOSER TO THE UPSTREAM VORT. LOCAL RADARS/IR SATELLITE/METARS SHOW OVERRUNNING PRECIP OCCURRING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH A BIT OF A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO WISCONSIN. SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY...REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 850MB LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER NORTH...OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY AS OPPOSED TO GOGEBIC/IRON COUNTIES. WITH THIS TRACK...EXPECT THE MOST SNOW TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. 12Z RUC SHOWS AN AREA OF 285K MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM GENERALLY ONT-ESC...WITH LIFT WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER EAST. ABOUT 2G/KG OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN AREA OF LIFT...BUT ONLY PRESENT IN ONE AREA FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. ADDITIONAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PER 12Z SOUNDING FROM KGRB SHOWING DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. INITIAL LIFT WILL GO TOWARD MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS WHY KERY ONLY REPORTING FLURRIES EVEN THOUGH ECHOES UP TO 20 DBZ ARE OVER THE STATION. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTENING OCCURRING AT KMQT BETWEEN 12-15Z AND AT KERY BETWEEN 15-18Z. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 00Z...WINDS WILL BACK NORTHEAST...A FAVORABLE LES DIRECTION FOR MARQUETTE-BARAGA COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH DELTA-TS ARE A MARGINAL 13C...LINGERING SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT. WILL CONTINUE SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH CURRENT SNOW A BIT HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED /KSAW ALREADY DOWN TO 1/2SM/ WILL HEADLINE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON RATHER THAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. .MQT...SNOW ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING MIZ001-003>005. JHB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 940 PM CST SAT JAN 6 2001 UPDATED ZONES TO FRESHEN WORDING...AND MAKE A FEW TEMP CHANGES. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING FAR NE CWA...BUT MOVING VERY SLOWLY. NICE THERMAL GRADIENT SETTING UP...AND VERY WELL DEFINED PER MSAS ANALYSIS. CHANGED MENTION OF LT SNOW TO FLURRIES IN ZONES...AS UPSTREAM 88D'S SHOWING FLURRIES BREAKING OUT IN ND. DOWNWARD MOTION SEEN ON ALL 00Z RUC ISENTROPIC SURFACES...SO ANY VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED MSTR CONVERGENCE. WITH AMPL LL MOISTURE IN PLACE...FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES IN COLDER AIR. WITH COLD AIR SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHWEST... AND LOW CLOUDS/WINDS...HAVE UPPED MINS IN PIR/MBG ZONES. DROPPED MINS IN FAR EAST...WITH COLDER AIR RACING DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND CORE OF LL CAA GRAZING EASTERN CWA...AND TEMPS ALREADY IN MID TEENS AT KFAR. HAVE A WARY EYE ON CLEARING SEEN IN FOG PRODUCT NEAR GRAND FORKS AND MOVING SOUTH...BUT FEEL CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN AGAIN WITH TIME. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY OUT. .ABR...NONE. BINAU sd WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 254 PM CST SAT JAN 6 2001 COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 20Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...WITH A LOW PRESSURE NEAR KCDS. ETA AND 18Z RUC BRING THIS COLD FRONT INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF WC TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. ETA TIME SECTIONS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE SHALLOW...EXTENDING TO 850 MB. 12Z AMA AND DDC SOUNDINGS SHOWED MEAN SFC-850MB DEWPOINTS OF ONLY -3 TO -5C. A BROAD UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY....MOVING INTO SW NM AT MIDDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO W TX FROM N MEXICO. AVN AND ETA PROG ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LIFT WITH THIS UPPER LOW AS IT FILLS AND CROSSES WC TX THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LIFT AT BEST...WILL REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME MORNING DRIZZLE...BUT EVEN THAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...COMBO OF MAV TEMPS AND ETA-PROGGED SURFACE TEMPS APPEAR BEST. FWC TEMPS APPEAR TOO WARM...EVEN WITH THE NGM-PROGGED LACK OF POST-FRONTAL STRATO CU. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO RECOVER A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW BEGINS BY LATE MONDAY. AVN AGGRESSIVELY BRINGS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WC TX ON TUESDAY...WITH QPF BY WEDNESDAY....THIS IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW PROGGED TO ENTER NORTHWEST MEXICO. 12Z AVN IS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z MRF OR THE 12Z/05 ECMWF. APPEARS BEST PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE WEDNESDAY. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPEARS BY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE MRF SOLUTION HAS THE FEATURE POSITIVELY TILTED AND LIFTING THROUGH QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MID JANUARY. ABI 035/046/029/050 --00 SJT 039/049/028/052 --00 JCT 042/053/028/055 --00 .SJT...NONE. 14 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 830 PM EST SAT JAN 6 2001 AREA OF LGT SNW HAS BLOSSOMED DURG LAST FEW HRS IN CHMPLN VLY WITH SPOTTY LGT SNW/FLRYS ELSW. MSAS ANALYS SHWG AREA OF WK LL WIND CNVGC ACRS THE RGN ASSCD WITH SFC TROF WHICH IS PRVDG ENUF LIFT TO PROD LGT SNW. KCXX VAD INDCTG N/NW FLOW LWST 8K FT WHICH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SNW IN CHMNPLN VLY/W SLOPES. HAV UPDATED FIRST PD TO INCL CHC LGT SNW WITH LKLY POPS CHMPLN VLY AND ACCUM 1" OR LESS. XPCT LGT SNW TO CONT MCH OF TNGT AS RUC INDCTG BNDRY RMNG IN PLC...AND WK VORT LOBE AND ASSCD 2ND AREA OF LGT PCPN ACRS LKS MVS NE ACRS RGN. .BTV...NONE. KJC vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1044 AM EST SAT JAN 6 2001 WILL OPT TO UPDATE GOING ZFP TO MAKE A FEW CHANGES AND KEEP THINGS CURRENT. COORD WITH GYX...THANX FOR THE CALL. SFC LOW ACRS NRN NY STATE ATTM TO WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY AS ANOTHER...STRONGER...STORM MOVES TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG. THIS COASTAL STORM TO MOVE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONITE. CLIPPER SYS TO TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND TONITE. WK RIDGE OF HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TONITE AS WELL. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TODAY. S/W (AS SEEN IN H2O IMAGERY) TO SLIDE FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION TO THE SW OF THE FA TODAY. 09Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE UPR TEENS-M20S TODAY. THESE READINGS SEEM TO COOL AS MESONET OBS SHOW READINGS ARE ALREADY AT OR NEAR THEM ATTM. T1MAX TEMPS ARE 30-35 DEG F TODAY. RUC SHOWS LT SFC WINDS ACRS THE FA TODAY AND AGREE WITH THIS. BEST MID-LVL MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED ACRS EXTREME NE VT TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE ACRS MUCH OF THE FA THOUGH TODAY (EXPECT ACRS SRN VT). BEST H85 THETA-E ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS EXTREME NE VT TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES ARE PIDDLY AT LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.25". RUC SHOWS NO MEASURABLE PCPN ACRS THE FA TODAY. FEEL BEST CHC FOR ANY MEASURABLE SN TODAY WILL CONT TO BE ACRS THE NE KINGDOM. HAVE SLIGHTLY REGROUPED CENTRAL VT ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE PCPN PIVOTING ACRS NH ATTM WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. PLENTY OF LOW- LVL MOISTURE TO LINGER ACRS THE FA TONITE AS WELL. BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE TO THE SW OF THE FA THOUGH. EXPECT THAT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SFC SYS WILL STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FA TONITE. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS BASED OF CURRENT OBS. CUT POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY IN A FEW ZONES FOR -SHSN/FLURRIES. OVRNITE SN TOTALS LOOK TO BE A TRACE TO AS MUCH AS 2" IN A FEW SPOTS UP IN NE VT. NOT MUCH MORE EXPECTED TODAY. REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN FROM CENTRAL VT ZONES FOR TONITE AS PCPN EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY THEN THERE. REST OF CHANGES TO GOING ZFP COSMETIC. WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 11 AM. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 315 AM MST SUN JAN 7 2001 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE AFFECTS OF PASSING SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING....AND THREAT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP FOR MIDWEEK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SAT PICS SHOWING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND VORTICITY MAX MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ATTM...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AREAS OF BANDED PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WITH KDEN REPORTING -SHSN AT 09Z...MOVING ESE. TDY...SHORT WAVE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...WITH CURRENT RUC SHOWING VORT MAX TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 16Z. STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF CWFA...WITH SUBSIDENCE TAKING CONTROL OVER AREA AFTER 16Z. WILL MENTION ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER MOST OF EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHORT WAVE FURTHER WEST...COLDER AIR (H7 TEMPS -8C TO -12C AT 00Z) WILL BE IN PLACE AND WILL FOLLOW COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO ADD WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH GOOD CCA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TNGT THROUGH MON...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TNGT IS REPLACED BY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES... AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US COAST. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLER AND COLD TEMPS TNGT...WITH WARMING (5 TO 10F WARMER THAN TODAY) IN STORE FOR MONDAY. IN THE EXTENDED(TUE-SAT): AGAIN THINGS GET INTERESTING IN THE EXTENDED. CURRENT MODELS SHEARS APART UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN US...WITH A WEAK ENERGY MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TUESDAY...AND A STRONGER PIECE WHICH CLOSES OFF OVER OLD MEXICO BY 00Z WED. AVNX AND NEW MRF THEN TAKE LOW OVER OLD MEXICO AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO/TX PANHANDLE 00Z THU...AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN US COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY... THOUGH WILL NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST TO AVOID FLIP FLOP. MRF THEN WANTS TO DEVELOP ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US 00Z FRI...WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN MRF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE OK PANHANDLE SATURDAY. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...WILL LEAVE THE EXTENDED BROAD-BRUSHED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NO MENTION FOR THE PLAINS. .PUB...NONE. MW co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 235 AM EST SUN JAN 07 2001 CURRENT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE CWA ATTM. SMALL PATCH OF CI DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS RESULTED FROM A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE AS EVIDENCED BY W/V LOOP AND RUC DATA. TEMPS STILL HOVERING AROUND FREEZING MOST CWA. AS EXPECTED...S INTERIOR CWA LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH UPPER 20S IN OCALA. MODELS...ETA GRAPHICAL GUIDANCE STILL COMING IN...AND AVN MISSING THE FIRST 3 DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT 18Z MESO ETA..00Z NGM...AND ALL MOS DATA...APPEARS MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FEATURES. MODELS STILL PHASE S STREAM SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE S PLAINS WITH A N STREAM WAVE DIGGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AN AMPLIFIED TROF IS THE RESULT...AND A SFC LOW STILL SLATED TO DEVELOP OVER GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS CENTRAL GA. WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE SW TONIGHT. NGM HAS LESS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...AND THUS LESS PRECIP TOTALS. MOISTURE STILL LURKING IN THE GULF...ALTHO DPS ARE EVEN IN THE MID 50S THERE. THERE IS MORE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL FEED FROM THE PACIFIC WITH THIS SYSTEM. PUBLIC...PRESENT FCST HANDLES MOST EVENTS FAIRLY WELL...AND WILL JUST CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE TIMING AND POPS. WILL INDICATE POPS EITHER AFTER MIDNIGHT OR LATE FOR TONIGHT. WILL CONSIDER BUMPING INTERIOR GA ZONES TO 70 POPS FOR MON. MAY ALSO BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS IN N ZONES MON NIGHT AS 850 TROF LINGERS. EXTENDED...EARLY PORTION LOOKS FINE. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. EARLY MRF RUN HAD IT REMAINING W OF THE AREA THRU SAT. NEWER UKMET AND NOGAPS RUNS SEEM TO INDICATE A MORE RAPID PROGRESSION. WILL WAIT FOR NEW MRF AND MOS TO CONFIRM...BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO FAR THIS SEASON...WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED. MARINE...PRESENT PACKAGE STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. SEE LITTLE TO CHANGE AT THIS POINT. NEW AVN HAS GALES JUST E OF OUR MARINE AREA MON AFTN AND EVENING. WILL POSSIBLE KICK UP MON PORTION A BIT MORE. UNTIL THEN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. FIRE WX...RED FLAG WARNING ALL AREAS FROM NOON TIL SUNSET FOR LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 35 PERCENT. PRELIM AMG 64/48/62/33 057- SSI 61/47/62/39 0361 JAX 67/47/65/36 0261 GNV 67/48/67/38 0262 31 .JAX... .GA...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTN OKEFENOKEE NWR. .FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTN ALL AREAS. CARROLL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 525 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2001 FCST FOCUS IS LES TODAY SFC ANALYSIS AT 09Z SHOWS INVERTED 1004MB TROF STRETCHING FM NORTH OF YQT TO PRESSURE CENTER OVR NRN LOWER MI. ERLY WINDS OVR ERN UPR (ERY AND ISQ) MI WITH NWRLY WINDS OVR CNTRL UPR MI (300 AT ESC) HAVE SET UP CONVERGENCE ZONE FM WRN ALGER COUNTY INTO DELTA COUNTY DEPICTED BY SWATH OF 24-28 DBZ RETURNS ON MQT 88D RADAR. AS WINDS HAVE NOW SWITCHED MORE NERLY (PER MQT VWP) BAND HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST. AT H5...SHRTWV IS NOTED OVR WRN LK SUPERIOR BUT HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD FA (WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMGRY) AND LACK OF RETURNS ON CANADIAN RADAR AND IMPROVING VSBYS OVR SW ONTARIO PER METARS. INCREASE IN ACTIVITY NOTED OVR KEWEENAW (PER CMX/P59 OBS) AND MQT COUNTY (PER 88D REFLECTIVIES) AS LIFT FM WEAKENING SHRTWV HELPING TO ESTABLISH DEEPER NE CBL FLW OFF LK SUPERIOR. TODAY...LIFT FM WRN LK SUPERIOR SHRTWV WL BE LIMITED TO 10-15Z TIME FRAME FOR WRN AND CNTRL UPR MI...AND SHOULDN/T BE MUCH OF FACTOR BY TIME IT REACHES ERN ZONES. SYN LIFT COMBINES WITH DLT T/S AROUND 16C BY 12Z PER RUC TO GIVE 3HR PERIOD OF TRUE LK ENHANCEMENT (ENDING BY 11Z IN CMX AND 14Z AT MQT). BELIEVE THAT DESPITE INVERSION REMAINING BTWN 4K-6K FT THAT ANY LK EFFECT BEYOND ERLY MORNING BURST WL BE LIGHT (1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL ACCUM IN HIGHER TERRAIN) AS DLT T/S REMAIN AROUND 16C AND DESCENT IN WAKE OF SHRTWV WITH ASSOCIATED H85 DRYING (RH FALLING BLO 60 PCT BY 21Z PER 06Z ETA) WL PUT CRIMP ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW AS SHRTWV CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH UPR MI. WITH SFC PARCEL TRAJECTORY OFF 34F LAKE SUPERIOR WL OPT FOR TEMPS IN THE 20S ACROSS ENTIRE FA...A BIT ABOVE FWC/MAV GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED GUSTY WINDS BEHIND SHRTWV NEAR SUPERIOR AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AT P59/CMX/IWD (P59: CALM AT 05Z WITH 09017G26KT AT 07Z) IN WAKE OF VORT MAX. TONIGHT...INVERSION HTS FALL TO AROUND 3KFT PER ETA BUT NE FLW THROUGH MIXED LAYER CONTINUES. COULD BE SOME LIFT (RAISING INVERSION HTS) PROVIDED BY SHRTWV MOVING INTO FA FM SCNTRL CANADA AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MODELS WEAKEN FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO FA. ETA PINS BEST H95 CONVERGENCE OVR NCNTRL UPR MI SO WL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE. IN THE WEST...OVR WATER INSTABILITY CONTINUING TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR LES AND NE-N WIND WL JUSTIFY SCT POPS FOR LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY. IN THE EAST...PRONOUNCED DRYING WITH NE DOWNSLOPE FLW OFF ONTARIO WL LIMIT LES POTENTIAL...SO WL GO WITH LIGHT LES OR FLURRIES FOR ALGER/LUCE. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...00Z MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN DIGGING ELONGATED SHRTWV FM NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO ERN TROF. HOWEVER THEY AGAIN ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN WEAKENING FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO CONUS BY 12Z MONDAY. WK UVM COULD HELP TO RAISE INVERSION HTS SLIGHTLY BUT BELIEVE THAT H85 TEMPS ARE TOO COLD ON ETA (-16C) COMPARED TO AVN (-11C). SO ANY LK EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE ON LIGHT SIDE WITH LITTLE ACCUM. IN ANY CASE CLOUDS WL REMAIN OVR MUCH OF FA WITH TEMPS CHANGING LITTLE FM SUNDAY. .MQT...NONE. JLA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1237 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2001 LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND STREAMING ONSHORE OFF OF LAKE HURON INTO ERN SECTIONS OF MACKINAC COUNTY AND SE PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA. LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL FROM MACKINAC COUNTY REPORTED 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 3 HOURS AROUND THE CEDARVILLE AREA. EXPECT SE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE E AND THEN NE BY SUNRISE. THUS...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEARLY LAKE HURON. WILL ALSO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR NRN LOWER MI COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOOK AT THE LATEST RUC SHOWS ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL CLOSE TO MIDDAY. THUS... EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .APX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...OVERNIGHT...MIZ008-015 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... MIZ016>019-021>024-028>030. EME mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 215 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2001 FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 06Z PLACED COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSOURI OZARKS... WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT...WITH SOUTHERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WATER VAPOR/WIND PROFILERS/500-300MB RUC VORTICITY SHOW NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER WYOMING AT 06Z. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF MOVING THE WYOMING SHORT WAVE INTO THE OZARKS TODAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD BY 06Z MONDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE AVN AND ETA MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ALL ZONES...BUT GIVEN THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS IN NORTHERN IOWA AND NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...WILL DROP THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FROM ALL BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS. OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT OF TEMPERATURES INDICATES THAT THE SATURATED AIR TEMPERATURE WILL BE -5 TO -8 THIS EVENING AND COOLING BELOW -10 MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...AND INCLUDE FLURRIES MONDAY GIVEN THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE 50 DEGREES AGAIN FOR SOME TIME. ETA SHOWS COLDEST AIR TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF SPRINGFIELD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAV GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN THE BEST OF THE BUNCH...BUT MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. LITTLE WARMUP EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND CONTINUING. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES STARTING A BRIEF WARMUP. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST. FCSTID = 008 SGF 039 025 028 011 035 / 5 10 10 10 JLN 042 026 031 014 038 / 5 10 10 10 UNO 044 025 031 012 035 / 5 10 10 10 VIH 039 021 025 009 034 / 5 10 10 10 .SGF... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. SUTTON mo WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1005 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2001 CURRENTLY...LINGERING AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AFTER LOOKING OVER SATELLITE...12Z RAOBS AND LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA DATA...I SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING ZONES. ON THE MARINE SIDE...BUOY TRENDS SUPPORT ONGOING PACKAGE...SO OTHER THAN MINOR WORDING CLEAN UP...NO CHANGES EXPECTED EITHER. FIRE WEATHER...QUICK RECOVERY TO TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW DEW POINTS (IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S) WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 35% FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE RED FLAG OR FIRE WX WATCHES EXPECTED. .TBW...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET FOR SUMTER... POLK...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...AND DESOTO COUNTIES. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET FOR LEVY... CITRUS...HERNANDO...EASTERN PASCO...EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH...AND EASTERN MANATEE COUNTIES. MCMICHAEL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA 1000 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2001 SATELLITE PICS SHOWING SHEARED MID/HIGH CLDNS APCHG FROM THE SW THIS MORN WITH STANDING WAVE AC DECK ALONG THE BLUE RDG ATTM. WITH MESO-ETA/RUC SHOWING DEEPENING RH SWRN AREAS BY MID/LATE AFTN PLAN TO UPDATE AND TREND TWD MSTLY CLDY NW NC AND SW VA GROUPS. ELSW GOING INCRSG CLDY SCENARIO LOOKS GOOD WITH MNLY SCT/BKN AC TIL LATE. ALTHO SEEING A FEW ECHOES ACRS THE TN VLY...THINK ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT OFF MORN RAOBS TO KEEP POPS OUT THIS AFTN AS LATEST MESO-ETA APRS TOO FAST WITH PRECIP. OTRW CLDNS A PROBLEM WITH HOW HIGH TO GO WITH AFTN TEMPS GIVEN WARMING 85H TEMPS AND THICKNESS VALUES BUT LESS HEATING SWRN TIER. PLAN TO LOWER TEMPS A NOTCH ESPCLY W OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN SLOW EARLY RISES UNDER CLDNS BUT MAINTAIN WARMER LAMP TYPE NUMBERS SE PER MORE INSOLATION. .RNK... NC...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. JH va DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR SCA OUTLINE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 925 AM CST SUN JAN 7 2001 SHORT RANGE...BOTH THE MESO-ETA AND RUC DATA HAVE INITIALIZED WELL ON THE 5H TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BIG BEND AREA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX. THE MESO-ETA SHOWS THE CORE OF THE 5H VORT MAX TRACKING BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND CRP ALONG THE TX COASTLINE BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 12Z BRO AND CRP SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN AN LI OF -4 TO -6 WHICH THE ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL COOLING AND DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMS. SO WILL AMEND THE CURRENT ZONES TO INCREASE 1ST PD POPS AND INSERT MENTION OF THUNDER. TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT...CLD COVER AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COMBINE TO MAKE AFTER TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY. BELIEVE THAT FWC/MAV TEMP GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS TODAY AND WILL AMEND THE 1ST PD OF THE ZFP ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE CURRENT ZFP LOOKS OK ATTM. MARINE...WILL UPDATE THE CWF FOR ISSUANCE OF A SCA AS BUOY020 REPORTS A SE WIND FROM 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SWELLS AT 4 FT. FROPA WILL OCCUR OVER THE BAY WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE GULF WATERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WILL ALSO INCREASE POPS OVER THE BAY AND GULF WATERS AND MSAS AND LAPS LI FIELDS SHOW AN ELONGATE AREA OF NEG LIS LYING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE TX COAST. THE INTERACTION OF THIS FIELD WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND 5H TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE CONV THREAT OVER THE GULF WATERS. PUBLIC...60/MESO...61/HMT...MARITNEZ INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO .BRO...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-150-155-170-175. tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1041 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2001 WILL UPDATE GOING ZFP TO ADD SOME FLURRIES AND MAKE A FEW OTHER MINOR CHANGES. WK SFC/UPR RIDGE TO MOVE ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY AS A WK CLIPPER SYS MOVES DOWN ACRS THE ERN GREAT LKS REGION AND INTO WRN NY STATE. AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS CLIPPER SYS TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA TONITE...WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN INVERTED SFC TROF WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY. WK S/W TO RIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA TODAY AS WELL. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS ONT/QUE TONITE. 12Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS GETTING UP INTO THE UPR TEENS-M20S TODAY. THESE VALUES SEEM TOO COOL AGAIN TODAY AS MESONET OBS SHOW READINGS AOA THESE TEMPS ATTM. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE U20S-M30S. REALITY WILL MOST LIKELY LIE BETWEEN THE RUC AND THE T1MAX VALUES. FEW TWEAKS TO GOING FIRST PERIOD TEMP FORECAST BASED ON THIS THINKING. RUC SHOWS LT WINDS ACRS THE FA TODAY AND AGREE WITH THIS. MID-LVLS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY ACRS THE FA TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE ACRS THE FA THOUGH TODAY. PW VALUES ARE AROUND 0.25". RUC KEEPS MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PCPN ACRS NY STATE (TO THE EAST OF LK ONT) TODAY WITH JUST TRACE VALUES ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS THAT PCPN ACRS MUCH OF NRN VT HAS DIMINISHED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HRS TODAY. MORE RETURNS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ATTM THOUGH. WILL GO BACK TO THINKING FROM YESTERDAY OF JUST SCT/CHC FOR FLURRIES ACRS THE ENTIRE FA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WK WAA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND CONT INTO TONITE. WK LOW-LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY. LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO LINGER ACRS THE FA TONITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TONITE AS WELL. DEEPER MOISTURE TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FA RIGHT THRU TONITE THOUGH. STILL FEEL THAT THERE/S A BETTER CHC FOR SN ACRS THE FA TONITE AND GOING ZFP CONTINUES TO REFLECT THIS. REGROUPED CHAMP VLY ALTOGETHER IN THE UPDATE PACKAGE. REST OF CHANGES TO GOING ZFP COSMETIC. WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 11 AM AFTER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST OBS AND RADAR TRENDS. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt