FXUS64 KHGX 090724 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 225 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001 AVN SEEMS TO BE HAVING SOME CONSISTENCY PROBS...ESPECIALLY IN LATER PERIODS. WILL USE THE ETA THROUGH 60 HRS...AND THE UKMET/EURO THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS IN LTL CHG TO ONGOING PKG. ETA SHOWS FLOW OFF THE GULF INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND DEPTH TDA. THIS SHD RESULT IN A DECENT INCR IN MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES UP TO ABT 1.7" BY 00Z. ETA ALSO SHOWS A VORT MOVING NE ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS FROM LAST NIGHT SHOW A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. ETA PICKS UP ON THIS BUT ERODES THE CAP THIS AFTN. THIS MAY BE A BIT QUICK GIVEN UPSTREAM MID AND UPR LVL TEMPS AND FCST HEIGHTS FOR THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY ARE. MOS SHOWS 40 PCT ACRS A LRG PART OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TOO HIGH. SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT PRESENT TMRW WITH MOISTURE LVLS UP ANOTHER TENTH OR TWO. WILL USE SIMILAR POPS DURING THE DAY. BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP SHOULD BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU IF THE ETA IS CORRECT. SFC TROUGH/FNT WILL BE INTO THE CWA AT THAT TIME. PW VALUES FCST NEAR 1.9" AT THE COAST. .HGX...NONE. 46/41/48 PRELIMS... CLL EE 084/072 083/070 081 323 IAH EE 084/073 086/072 081 323 GLS EE 082/074 083/074 081 323 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 091504 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH PW OF 1.5 INCHES...BUT SIGNIFICANT CAP AT 750 MB. DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS CWA BUT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW. EXPECT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF SE TX THROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED THROUGH AFTERNOON PER 12Z MESOETA. WITHOUT A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND LIFTING MECHANISM...HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR FIRST PERIOD. BREAKS IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH FORECASTED LEVELS THIS AFTN. MAY TWEAK TEMPS AND CLOUD WORDING SOME AREAS. .HGX...NONE. 35/42/TF PRELIMS... CLL EE 086/072 083/070 081 223 IAH EE 084/073 086/072 081 223 GLS BE 083/074 083/074 081 223 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 091920 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 220 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001 STATIONARY BAND OF SHRA HAS DEVELOPED FROM HOUSTON SOUTH TO OFFSHORE WATERS BUT REST OF CWA QUIET THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FCST FOR TONIGHT BUT EXPECT SHRA WILL DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FIRST SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS TX PANHANDLE BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CWA TONIGHT. SECOND 500 MB TROF WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WED. MESOETA ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN AVN WITH SYSTEM BUT OTHERWISE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LIFT INCREASING OVER SE TX LATE WED INTO THURSDAY. 12Z MESOETA FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SE TX WED WITH CAPES OF 4000...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A DECENT SHEAR PROFILE. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MOST OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK. EXPECT STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER CENTRAL/NE TX WED AFTN AND MOVE INTO SE TX WED NIGHT. SINCE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE 3RD PERIOD WILL LEAVE OUT OF ZONES FOR NOW AND LET MID SHIFT PERUSE NEW MODEL DATA. COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF CWA THROUGH WED NIGHT BUT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SE TX AND PROVIDE A CONTINUED CONVECTIVE FOCUS EVEN AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS 12Z AVN PROGS PWS TO REMAIN AROUND 1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT CONCERNING NEXT SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS. 00Z AVN/MRF DEPICTED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NE TX FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY BUT 12Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AGAIN. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR COLD FRONT SWEEPING QUICKLY ACROSS CWA LATE FRI NIGHT. WIND PROFILE WOULD FAVOR SQUALL LINE FORMING ALONG FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SE TX LATE SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE RETURN MAY ONLY BE ENOUGH TO YIELD LOW POPS. .HGX...NONE. 35/42/TF PRELIMS... CLL ET 071/085 069/078 066 246 IAH ET 073/086 070/081 068 235 GLS ET 075/083 074/081 073 235 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 100236 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 935 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001 SHRA IN NORTHERN FA HAVE DIED OFF. A LOT OF CHAFF EVIDENT OVER THE GULF AND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME TELLING 88D VELOCITY AND VWP PRODUCTS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SE FETCH OFF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN THE MOISTURE...GPS SOUNDING AT PALESTINE INDICATES 1.9" PW MADE IT THROUGH THERE AROUND 22Z AND HAVE SINCE FALLEN OFF TO 1.6". GLS GPS SOUNDING NOT AVAILABLE BUT GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WOULD THINK THAT IT SHOULD BE IN THE 1.5" BALLPARK. AM VERY SUSPICIOUS OF CRP UA MOISTURE PROFILE...LOOKS LIKE A BAD SENSOR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SSE FETCH. SHRA DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LA. MODELS PROG A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AND DIMINISHING CAP TOWARD MORNING. WILL PROBABLY WORD ZONES AS 20ISH POPS TOWARD MORNING. WILL TWEAK THE COASTAL COUNTY WINDS TO EAST. WILL DO THE SAME TO MARINE PACKAGE FOR BAYS AND WATERS OUT TO 20 NM. CLOUD COVER AND MODERATE WAA SHOULD SLOW OR STOP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE ACTION TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON-NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A BUSY OFFICE... ESPECIALLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .HGX...NONE. 45/37/D PRELIMS... CLL ET 071/085 069/078 066 246 IAH ET 073/086 070/081 068 235 GLS ET 075/083 074/081 073 235