FXUS63 KSGF 260852
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTHWARD BRIEFLY AS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE 
ROCKIES. I CAN'T RULE OUT A PULSE STORM OR TWO IN OUR WEAKLY CAPPED 
ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG. COVERAGE 
SHOULD BE FAIRLY MEAGER AND WILL ONLY CARRY A SMALL POP FOR AREAS 
THAT WILL BE MOST WEAKLY CAPPED. 

WILL GO WITH A HEAT ADVISORY OVER MY WESTERN COUNTIES FOR TODAY. 
JOPLIN STILL AROUND 80 DEGREES TONIGHT WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY 
LAYER. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S 
SHOULD GET US WARM/HUMID ENOUGH TO MARGINALLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY 
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. 

BOTH THE ETA AND GFS CONTINUE TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. UNLIKE 
TODAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND 
DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK WHATEVER 
CAP IS OUT THERE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF 
THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES 
EVERYWHERE FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERE CONVECTION A GOOD 
BET GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY 
ORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT...BUT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS FRI 
EVENING...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SMALL MCS CLUSTER(S).  

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT 
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUN MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF 
SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ETA A BIT SLOWER. 
00Z RUN OF THE ETA LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE COMING A BIT CLOSER THE 
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION SO USED GFS AS PRIMARY GUIDE FOR TIMING...BUT 
STILL LINGERED RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A 
HEDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ON 
SATURDAY GIVEN PWATS APPROACHING 1.8-1.9 INCHES AND AREA WILL BE 
NEAR RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 250MB JET STREAK OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY 
SATURDAY. 

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  

DSA

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY 
AVIATION CONCERN REVOLVING AROUND WINDS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS 
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE SGF AREA WHERE SURFACE 
WINDS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BACKED BENEATH 40-45KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL 
JET. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT, JLN'S SURFACE WINDS HAVE REMAINED GUSTY 
SO LLWS NOT A PROBLEM THERE. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH 
GUSTS ABOVE 20KT LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING AS 
THE LINGERING MOMENTUM FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES TO THE SURFACE.

IZZI

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE
KS...NONE.

$$

WFO SGF