FXUS63 KEAX 220936
AFDMCI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
325 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MAINLY SHORT TERM DRIVEN AND REGARD RAIN 
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. WARM AIR ADVECTION FAIRLY STRONG AND 
COMBINED WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES AND 
VORTICITY LOBES EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES GIVE US 
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. PRIMARY DETERRENT HAS BEEN AND 
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...MODELS DO 
SATURATE AN AREA FROM NORTHEAST KS ACROSS NORTHERN 1/3 MO TODAY. 
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL LITTLE 
CHANGE TO GOING LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. THIS FIRST 
BAND SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY AND BE EXITING NORTHEAST MO BY EARLY 
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUN AFTER PASSAGE OF 
VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN. 
ANY SUN WILL SEND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S...LATEST READINGS 
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WESTERN MO/EASTERN KS...AND 
TRENDING HIGHER. 

WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE ON INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE 
MOVING FROM WEST WEST TO EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. 
EXPECTING TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF 850 MB 
THETA-E RIDGE AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN THERE COULD 
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING WHERE BEST 
DESTABILIZATION PROGGED. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW CHANCE OF THIS 
OCCURRING DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE OPTED NOT TO 
INCLUDE. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS SCENARIO. 

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH INTO MO MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A LOW CLOUD DECK TO DROP SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT 
AND TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAPPENING NOT VERY HIGH. 

BY MID WEEK SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY 
DIRECTION WHILE UPSTREAM RIDGING SHIFTS EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. 
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WORK WEEK. HAVE 
BUMPED HIGHS UP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO 
CONSERVATIVE. 

MJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

304 PM...
THE FOCUS FOR TODAYS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON OUR CHANCES FOR 
PRECIP SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. 

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A 
SPLIT FLOW AND LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH. WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM A 
SHORT WAVE CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM 
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. TO THE SOUTH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO 
FILL IN OVER EAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT 
WAVE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL 
MOVE IN BEHIND THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE WEST COAST 
TROUGH...HELPING FUNNEL MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE 
RELATIVELY DRY CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DESCENDING 
THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TAP THAT MOISTURE TONIGHT AND 
SUNDAY AND SQUEEZE SOME RAIN OUT OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. GFS 
AND ETA MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 
THE 290 AND 295 K SURFACES WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY 
SUNDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH 
OF THE NEBRASKA/MISSOURI/IOWA BORDERS. A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
FARTHER SOUTH WILL INHIBIT THE ONSET OF RAIN AS YOU HEAD SOUTH 
THROUGH KANSAS AND MISSOURI. SO...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE 
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 

COOL DRY AIR WILL DESCEND INTO MISSOURI AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT 
WAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH PRECIP 
CHANCES INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. I HAVE KEPT 
THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP IN CENTRAL MISSOURI FOR MONDAY AS A 
STRONG JET STREAK DIGS UNDER THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND BEGINS TO 
EJECT PIECES OF IT THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
VALLEY. MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THESE WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN TO OUR 
SOUTH THOUGH.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL DRAG THE WEST COAST TROUGH THROUGH THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS BIT BY BIT NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES 
BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY RIDGING WILL 
BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE MIDWEST BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND 
THE MID RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH FORMING. BOTH 
THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND EXTRAPOLATED ECMWF POINT AT CYCLOGENESIS IN 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS KIND OF AGREEMENT I 
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE FORECAST NEXT 
SATURDAY.      

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

$$

WFO EAX