Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13 14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
000 FXUS04 KWBC 061747 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1247 PM EST FRI FEB 06 2009 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID FEB 07/0000 UTC THRU FEB 08/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... CA INTO THE GTBASIN...SWRN U.S... LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH THE RE-AMPLIFICATION TO THE MEAN CLOSED LOW OFF THE CNTRL TO SRN CA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL NERN PAC HT FALLS DIGGING SEWD. AS THE NEXT CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE SRN CA COAST...THE LOW LEVEL SWLY TO SLY FLOW WL PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT ACRS SRN CA AND INTO THE SWRN U.S. PW VALUES AHEAD OF THIS NEXT CLOSED LOW ARE NOT VERY ANOMALOUS...APPROX 1-1.5 STD ABOVE THE MEAN FCST ACRS SRN CA AND INTO THE SW. LATEST WV IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS CLOSED LOW WL NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ON ITS SERN SIDE. THIS SHOULD KEEP PCPN AMTS DURG DAY 1 FROM BEING VERY HEAVY..ALTHOUGH AMTS OF 1"+ POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE SRN CA COAST RANGES. INLAND...THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFS ON HOW FAST PCPN PUSHES EWD. THE NAM...GFS...CMC GEM AND SREF MEAN HAVE THEIR RESPECTIVE QPF AXES FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN THE LATEST ECMWF (0000 UTC) FROM CNTRL TO SRN NV/WRN UT...SWD INTO FAR ERN CA AND WRN AZ. AT THE MOMENT...DAY 1 QPF WENT WITH THE FASTER EWD PUSH..DEPICTING .25-.50"+ AREAL AVG AMTS IN THIS AXIS. PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... MUCH WEAKER NRN STREAM HT FALLS WL PUSH ESEWD FROM THE PAC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS WL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT PCPN AMTS ACRS THESE REGIONS....WITH THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE IN AGRMNT ON THIS SCENARIO. NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY/GTLKS... THE LEAD AREA OF HT FALLS TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF THE MEAN WRN TROF WL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD FROM INVOF THE NRN PLAINS..ACRS THE UPR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GTLKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THESE HT FALLS AND THE HT FALLS MOVG EWD OUT OF THE PAC NW AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL SUPPORT MOSTLY LIGHT PCPN AMTS FROM THE NRN PLAINS...UPR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GTLKS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAD THE BROADEST AREA OF LIGHT PCPN..WITH A LARGER OVERAGE OF .10"+ AMTS THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE...WHICH SUPPORT LIGHTER AMTS AND LESSER COVERAGE. AT THE MOMENT DAY 1 QPF WENT TOWARD THE LATTER SOLNS. FAR SRN FL... LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW ON THE S SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH MOVG OFF THE SERN COAST WL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACRS FAR SRN FL DAY 1. AREAL AVG PCPN AMTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ORAVEC GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 08/00Z 0.01 473715 468699 462701 458704 456708 449714 446720 443722 442726 442729 451737 452740 451743 449746 445748 441746 435750 433751 432756 433762 436771 441784 442790 441795 440797 433803 429808 426815 422819 388855 386861 385868 387875 389880 395882 397883 400882 407880 412882 415885 416890 416894 418896 426903 435911 447913 456907 461908 464911 463916 463935 465946 467953 471956 472956 475954 478947 481941 489911 496881 492859 491848 489837 489829 488823 483802 480789 478777 477760 476750 477746 475738 475731 473723 473715 0.01 519172 520167 520162 520157 516151 512147 493126 488116 487110 489104 489091 488080 486073 482071 479074 476079 474086 470090 467092 465094 461100 455098 450095 444094 438096 436103 438110 441116 445121 451122 455122 461127 463131 458135 454140 449144 445149 441150 438154 438159 443170 443174 441177 438185 435189 429191 422196 419202 421209 423217 422220 420221 415225 413231 417240 420245 425250 433249 439248 450249 453245 455239 456223 454204 457195 460190 462185 463181 463177 466170 472169 483174 498179 504181 508182 512181 519172 0.01 492054 493048 492041 488032 484024 481020 472021 467025 464030 460039 462047 468054 471062 473064 476064 482063 489059 492054 0.01 455080 456076 454072 453069 452068 450064 447063 444063 442064 441064 439068 439070 438072 439074 439076 441078 444080 447082 450082 453083 455080 0.01 412184 412178 411170 409161 412151 416137 418131 419126 418115 416100 416090 417078 417072 417066 415062 413060 410059 406059 401062 393069 389071 388073 390080 392083 396085 404087 398098 390103 385105 377108 366115 360114 354111 350107 346106 338104 335107 335113 336119 333120 328122 320122 309126 306130 303132 303137 307143 313147 312154 311160 308165 305171 304178 304182 309187 311193 315199 320204 338218 349226 354230 361234 371238 376238 384238 391237 393236 394231 394228 390225 386223 383221 381219 382217 387213 391213 397216 402213 400208 396202 395198 400195 406194 410191 411187 412184 0.01 271800 269798 266797 260797 254797 250798 247801 244805 242811 240816 241820 244821 247817 251812 254807 259805 265804 269803 271800 0.01 306014 306007 305003 302998 300995 296994 293996 290999 287003 287006 288009 290012 293015 297018 300018 303017 306014 0.25 396184 397160 400145 401138 401132 398124 397116 398113 394113 386115 380117 374122 366127 359128 350127 340128 331129 322130 316131 314134 313137 326148 337156 337160 332162 325162 319164 317169 318174 322182 328188 336200 341207 347213 360220 363221 366216 365210 362207 357202 354196 355192 357191 360192 367194 375198 381200 384197 387192 392187 396184 0.25 358170 358167 356163 354161 351160 348160 345161 347165 347168 347169 348172 349175 349179 351181 353180 355177 357173 358170 358170 0.50 378152 380145 380137 381131 379129 377130 370133 365133 359133 347132 339133 336136 336139 339143 343147 349151 357156 365162 370162 374159 378152 0.50 359213 354206 351203 349197 348188 346178 344168 339165 333165 328165 325167 323171 325175 330182 334190 338198 344206 347208 353210 359213 1.00 347199 346196 345190 342188 343185 344178 343174 341170 338171 336177 338180 340184 342188 343195 345199 347199 $$