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000
FXUS04 KWBC 061747
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1247 PM EST FRI FEB 06 2009
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 07/0000 UTC THRU FEB 08/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
CA INTO THE GTBASIN...SWRN U.S...
LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH THE RE-AMPLIFICATION TO THE
MEAN CLOSED LOW OFF THE CNTRL TO SRN CA COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL NERN PAC HT FALLS DIGGING SEWD. AS
THE NEXT CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE SRN CA COAST...THE LOW
LEVEL SWLY TO SLY FLOW WL PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT ACRS SRN CA AND INTO THE SWRN U.S. PW VALUES AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT CLOSED LOW ARE NOT VERY ANOMALOUS...APPROX 1-1.5 STD
ABOVE THE MEAN FCST ACRS SRN CA AND INTO THE SW. LATEST WV
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS CLOSED LOW WL NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ON ITS SERN SIDE. THIS SHOULD KEEP
PCPN AMTS DURG DAY 1 FROM BEING VERY HEAVY..ALTHOUGH AMTS OF 1"+
POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE SRN CA COAST
RANGES.
INLAND...THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFS ON HOW FAST PCPN PUSHES EWD.
THE NAM...GFS...CMC GEM AND SREF MEAN HAVE THEIR RESPECTIVE QPF
AXES FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN THE LATEST ECMWF (0000 UTC) FROM
CNTRL TO SRN NV/WRN UT...SWD INTO FAR ERN CA AND WRN AZ. AT THE
MOMENT...DAY 1 QPF WENT WITH THE FASTER EWD PUSH..DEPICTING
.25-.50"+ AREAL AVG AMTS IN THIS AXIS.
PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
MUCH WEAKER NRN STREAM HT FALLS WL PUSH ESEWD FROM THE PAC NW AND
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE
OVERALL WEAK DYNAMICS WL ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT PCPN AMTS ACRS THESE
REGIONS....WITH THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE IN AGRMNT ON
THIS SCENARIO.
NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY/GTLKS...
THE LEAD AREA OF HT FALLS TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF THE MEAN WRN TROF
WL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD FROM INVOF THE NRN PLAINS..ACRS THE UPR MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE GTLKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THESE HT FALLS AND THE HT FALLS MOVG EWD OUT OF THE PAC
NW AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WL SUPPORT MOSTLY LIGHT PCPN AMTS FROM
THE NRN PLAINS...UPR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GTLKS. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS HAD THE BROADEST AREA OF LIGHT PCPN..WITH A LARGER
OVERAGE OF .10"+ AMTS THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE OPERATIONAL AND
SREF GUIDANCE...WHICH SUPPORT LIGHTER AMTS AND LESSER COVERAGE.
AT THE MOMENT DAY 1 QPF WENT TOWARD THE LATTER SOLNS.
FAR SRN FL...
LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW ON THE S SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH MOVG OFF THE SERN
COAST WL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACRS FAR SRN FL DAY 1.
AREAL AVG PCPN AMTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
ORAVEC
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 08/00Z
0.01 473715 468699 462701 458704 456708 449714 446720 443722
442726 442729 451737 452740 451743 449746 445748 441746
435750 433751 432756 433762 436771 441784 442790 441795
440797 433803 429808 426815 422819 388855 386861 385868
387875 389880 395882 397883 400882 407880 412882 415885
416890 416894 418896 426903 435911 447913 456907 461908
464911 463916 463935 465946 467953 471956 472956 475954
478947 481941 489911 496881 492859 491848 489837 489829
488823 483802 480789 478777 477760 476750 477746 475738
475731 473723 473715
0.01 519172 520167 520162 520157 516151 512147 493126 488116
487110 489104 489091 488080 486073 482071 479074 476079
474086 470090 467092 465094 461100 455098 450095 444094
438096 436103 438110 441116 445121 451122 455122 461127
463131 458135 454140 449144 445149 441150 438154 438159
443170 443174 441177 438185 435189 429191 422196 419202
421209 423217 422220 420221 415225 413231 417240 420245
425250 433249 439248 450249 453245 455239 456223 454204
457195 460190 462185 463181 463177 466170 472169 483174
498179 504181 508182 512181 519172
0.01 492054 493048 492041 488032 484024 481020 472021 467025
464030 460039 462047 468054 471062 473064 476064 482063
489059 492054
0.01 455080 456076 454072 453069 452068 450064 447063 444063
442064 441064 439068 439070 438072 439074 439076 441078
444080 447082 450082 453083 455080
0.01 412184 412178 411170 409161 412151 416137 418131 419126
418115 416100 416090 417078 417072 417066 415062 413060
410059 406059 401062 393069 389071 388073 390080 392083
396085 404087 398098 390103 385105 377108 366115 360114
354111 350107 346106 338104 335107 335113 336119 333120
328122 320122 309126 306130 303132 303137 307143 313147
312154 311160 308165 305171 304178 304182 309187 311193
315199 320204 338218 349226 354230 361234 371238 376238
384238 391237 393236 394231 394228 390225 386223 383221
381219 382217 387213 391213 397216 402213 400208 396202
395198 400195 406194 410191 411187 412184
0.01 271800 269798 266797 260797 254797 250798 247801 244805
242811 240816 241820 244821 247817 251812 254807 259805
265804 269803 271800
0.01 306014 306007 305003 302998 300995 296994 293996 290999
287003 287006 288009 290012 293015 297018 300018 303017
306014
0.25 396184 397160 400145 401138 401132 398124 397116 398113
394113 386115 380117 374122 366127 359128 350127 340128
331129 322130 316131 314134 313137 326148 337156 337160
332162 325162 319164 317169 318174 322182 328188 336200
341207 347213 360220 363221 366216 365210 362207 357202
354196 355192 357191 360192 367194 375198 381200 384197
387192 392187 396184
0.25 358170 358167 356163 354161 351160 348160 345161 347165
347168 347169 348172 349175 349179 351181 353180 355177
357173 358170 358170
0.50 378152 380145 380137 381131 379129 377130 370133 365133
359133 347132 339133 336136 336139 339143 343147 349151
357156 365162 370162 374159 378152
0.50 359213 354206 351203 349197 348188 346178 344168 339165
333165 328165 325167 323171 325175 330182 334190 338198
344206 347208 353210 359213
1.00 347199 346196 345190 342188 343185 344178 343174 341170
338171 336177 338180 340184 342188 343195 345199 347199
$$
