Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

000
FXUS04 KWBC 081835
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
135 PM EST SUN FEB 08 2009


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 09/0000 UTC THRU FEB 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

PLAINS...

ALL MODELS SHOW A NEWD PUSH OF THE SWRN CLOSED LOW INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN NEWD INTO CNTRL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
UPR MS VALLEY DURG MON.  PWS ARE FCST TO INCREASE QUICKLY ON
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW THRU THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH
ANOMALOUS PW AND MOISTURE FLUX VALUES AHEAD OF THIS EJECTING
CLOSED LOW.   THIS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ASSOC WITH THE NEWD
EJECTING CLOSED LOW WL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD REGION OF MDT TO HVY
PCPN DAY 1 THRU THE ENTIRE PLAINS.  PCPN WL INITIALLY BE
CONCENTRATED OVR THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WHERE THE STRONGEST
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FAVORABLE
JET DYNAMICS.  OVERALL GOOD AGRMNT AMONG THE MODELS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR .50-1" AMTS OVR THE SRN PLAINS.   THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLIGHTLY
FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE ONSET OF MDT TO HVY PCPN OVR THE SRN
HIGHS PLAINS TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE EC.  THE DAY 1 QPF WENT WITH
THE FARTHER WWD ONSET SOLN.

FARTHER NWD INTO THE CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS...PCPN WL BE INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF A LEAD VORT MOVG NWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THEN AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE ASSOC WITH
THE EJECTING CLOSED LOW DURG THE DAY MON.  THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE NEWD EJECTION
OF THE SFC LOW ON MON THRU THE CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS.  THE DAY 1 QPF
WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/EC SOLN..WITH AN AXIS
OF .25-.50"+ QPF AHEAD OF THIS LOW OVR THE CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS.

WRN U.S...

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WL CONT ACRS A LARGE SECTION OF THE WRN U.S. AS
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF NERN PAC HT PUSHES ESEWD AND AMPLIFIES
THE MEAN TROF STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW...THRU THE GTBASIN AND
INTO CA. PW VALUES ARE NOT FCST TO BE ANOMALOUS WITH THIS NEXT
AMPLIFYING TROF...WITH VALUES NEAR NORMAL.  HOWEVER...WITH
SUSTAINED WLY TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS AMPLIFYING TROF..MOISTURE
FLUX ANOMALY VALUES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE THE MEAN ARE FCST BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS ACRS SRN CA INTO THE SW.  OVERALL...FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT
WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN ACRS LARGE SECTIONS OF THE WRN U.S. DAY 1.
FOR QPF DETAILS...THE DAY 1 QPF WENT WITH THE 12 KM OUTPUT FROM
THE NAM AND NAM SREF MEMBERS...WITH HEAVIEST AMTS DEPICTED ACRS
THE COAST RANGES OF SRN CA...THE SIERRA AND INTO THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF CNTRL/NWRN AZ AND FAR SWRN UT.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 10/00Z
 0.01 535211 535201 534195 532187 530180 527176 525172 522177
      520182 515184 509183 508184 508188 509193 511199 514204
      518208 524211 530212 532212 535211
 0.01 537009 538991 537982 535972 533964 531958 527948 522937
      517927 511918 504911 497908 488904 481897 474889 460869
      454862 446857 438855 429855 420855 410857 400860 390865
      382871 376877 368885 360893 358895 353899 345905 328914
      317919 309922 299926 292930 275937 275941 276947 273955
      269962 265968 258974 255978 254982 256985 263990 270993
      278996 280997 282000 282006 285016 285022 286028 290035
      295041 301046 307049 344055 349058 352061 355067 358071
      364078 367082 366084 364090 358092 355095 354100 354103
      353106 351106 349103 346096 343089 337084 330087 327092
      325094 319100 318106 321111 326118 329125 331135 335146
      338149 343150 355151 360149 363150 366159 369165 371171
      378178 395187 397190 397196 390194 383188 378185 375184
      371180 368179 363175 358175 351180 349176 349173 347169
      345165 342163 337160 331159 321157 316156 312157 309159
      310163 312167 317173 322180 325187 329205 332215 334221
      345237 361249 370253 376257 381259 387260 393260 402259
      411257 416255 422256 439255 449256 457257 468260 477265
      485271 493276 498281 503281 509271 510266 515262 515254
      514246 511233 509225 506219 499210 495206 489203 478203
      470204 468205 462205 459203 460198 463194 466191 470187
      473182 478173 481171 483165 485161 484156 479154 473151
      471147 471142 477138 483138 487138 488133 486130 483126
      479124 460127 451126 450120 453116 453109 450104 445098
      437093 431086 429083 434082 439082 444080 447078 450071
      450054 472050 478048 484047 496046 505043 511041 517040
      521039 524037 529029 534019 537009
 0.01 448742 445737 440734 436736 434738 431743 430749 429754
      432761 435764 438766 442767 444764 446761 447755 448747
      448742
 0.01 428048 429045 429040 427038 424038 418039 412041 409043
      404045 401049 401050 406053 409053 415054 421053 425052
      428048
 0.01 424099 425096 424092 423088 424084 421082 417084 412085
      407085 401087 399091 401095 404093 409091 412092 414095
      415103 418105 421103 424099
 0.25 519011 519004 519998 517988 514978 510970 506962 500955
      496950 490946 479938 467933 460930 452928 445928 438930
      430932 425935 416945 401947 395947 392945 386940 381927
      373913 368909 364910 359913 349921 340929 329937 302953
      293959 289964 286969 284975 284978 286980 288981 294985
      295990 294996 294000 296006 301009 303011 303015 304020
      306025 310029 316032 324034 336035 344036 352034 367031
      372029 374027 380021 392017 400018 404017 409015 423007
      431008 437010 442012 446014 448016 452022 457026 464030
      472033 478034 485032 493027 499025 505025 511024 516020
      519011
 0.25 503238 503236 501233 500232 498232 499237 502240 503238
 0.25 460241 462237 460234 456229 457226 458223 455221 440218
      434218 429217 426219 423223 420229 415231 413228 417220
      414213 410213 407211 403206 393200 383193 372185 366182
      362181 356182 352186 353189 357190 361192 369197 373201
      382210 392216 403223 405226 403229 395227 387226 380223
      373215 367211 363208 359203 354200 348188 346175 344168
      339165 332163 328163 325165 324170 326176 331186 336197
      344208 351218 359226 367233 374238 379242 384246 390248
      397250 401250 413249 418248 426247 438246 451245 457243
      460241
 0.25 457185 456182 453181 450180 447179 445179 443182 442186
      443190 446192 449193 452194 453193 455189 455188 457185
 0.25 421162 422158 422154 421152 418150 415148 412148 411149
      409151 409152 409155 409156 409160 410164 410168 410170
      413168 416167 418165 420163 421162
 0.25 423119 420114 412110 411103 410098 406096 403103 400109
      394113 393117 397118 400120 402123 408126 414124 420122
      423119
 0.25 422068 420064 412062 406062 401067 397069 392067 389066
      387068 384070 381071 372062 369062 366064 367068 370073
      372081 375086 381089 384090 387090 389088 392083 396079
      400075 404076 411077 415076 421071 422068
 0.25 385123 383119 379119 365119 360117 354114 346106 342103
      338106 337112 339119 342130 344136 347141 350142 353142
      358141 365142 372143 376145 381141 381133 384127 385123
 0.50 499004 500999 499994 496988 491983 485980 475977 463975
      453969 442965 431962 426960 418961 406965 401968 396975
      393977 389977 386978 386982 388985 392986 402987 408988
      415989 421990 425993 433001 437004 440003 447002 452003
      457006 466014 470019 475024 479025 485024 490019 493014
      499004
 0.50 428243 424241 418240 413237 407235 401235 398236 395237
      394242 397245 400246 405246 409245 415244 420245 424243
      428243
 0.50 410222 410218 405214 400207 392202 384196 376190 368185
      363183 357184 359188 364191 368193 372198 377204 385209
      393214 398218 404220 410222
 0.50 374227 375223 374220 371217 367215 361212 356209 351203
      348196 344192 343193 342199 346203 350208 355215 358220
      365224 371227 374227
 0.50 376140 379130 378125 374123 370124 365124 359121 354116
      349111 343107 342111 343115 345122 347130 347134 350135
      357135 364134 370137 375141 376140
 0.50 380075 378074 375072 375075 375078 378079 380075
 0.50 367936 365933 363932 356933 341938 329944 317950 308956
      303960 299966 309982 301992 301998 307001 316006 318008
      317013 316019 319024 324026 332025 340025 347025 354024
      360021 362017 361012 364999 362994 357988 354985 351981
      346974 348968 352964 357960 361955 363952 362948 362943
      363940 367936
 0.50 342185 344182 344178 344175 344171 342167 339166 336166
      333165 330165 328165 327165 327166 330169 333172 334173
      335174 337177 337178 339181 340184 341184 342185 342185
 1.00 399212 394207 392205 387201 384199 380196 376194 373194
      375196 378200 381203 386206 391208 394211 396212 399212
 1.00 347010 345008 343007 342006 339006 336007 334008 333009
      331011 330011 331012 334013 337013 339013 342013 345012
      347010

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