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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/04/07 1405Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1345Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MAJOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z UA
ANALYSIS ALL PORTENDING TO A MAJOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TX AT LEAST FOR THE SHORT TERM.  6HR AUTOMATED SATELLITE
ESTIMATES RUNNING AROUND 6" OVER THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA AND CONSIDERING
THE LOW BIAS OF AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES BELIEVE THIS TOTAL IS MORE
LIKELY RUNNING IN THE 6-8" RANGE.
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WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER IS NEAR THE DLF AREA.
HAVE NOTED AN INCREASED WESTWARD COMPONENT TO CLOUD FIELD ON TEH POLEWARD
EDGE OF SYSTEM AND THIS INDICATIVE OF THE SYSTEM BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CLOSED OFF AT THE MID LEVELS.  SEVERAL IMPULSES SEEN ROTATING AROUND THIS
MAIN FEATURE HELPING TO AID IN SYNOPTIC ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION OVER AREA.
BEST LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED THETA GRADIENT ON 310K SURFACE
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT IS LOCATED FROM AROUND HBV TO CRP AND THEN EXTENDING
ENE TO ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH OF LCH.  LLJ AXIS APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
COINCIDENT WITH A SSW TO NNE AXIS OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM ABOUT
40 MILES NE OF BRO TO 50 MILES EAST OF CRP.  THIS HELPING TO PLACE BEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM BEE/SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES
TOWARDS ARANSAS COUNTY.  IT DOES APPEAR OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO THAT
85H LLJ HAS VEERED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 200 AND THIS MAY HELP TO SHIFT
FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOWARDS THE W AND SW PORTION OF ABOVE
MENTIONED BOUNDARY.
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GOES DPI, MICROWAVE TPWS AND 12Z SOUNDINGS ALL SHOWING ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN EXCESS OF 2.25" OVER THE
ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA.  THIS SHOULD NO DOUBT LEAD TO RAINFALL RATES ON
THE ORDER OF 2-3"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE CORES.  AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES ARE CONCENTRATING IN TWO AREAS, THE FIRST BEING
FROM NE WELLS COUNTY INTO S BEE COUNTY AS A RATHER WELL DEFINED WEDGE TYPE
FEATURE WITH ASSOCIATED OVERSHOOTING TOP IS EVIDENT ON IR/VIS IMAGERY.
THE SECOND AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY COOLING CONVECTION FROM SAN
JOSE AND MATAGORDA ISLAND INTO E ARANSAS COUNTY.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3013 9358 2885 9141 2802 9211 2792 9261 2768 9552 2670
9752 2683 9884 2783 9941 2899 9968 2950 9926 2971 9699
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