FXUS63 KLMK 080600
AFDSDF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
200 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2003

STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM SUBTROPICS AND EMBEDDED SFC WAVES 
CONTINUE OVER THE SERN CONUS, WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SIG 
500MB DROPPING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. MID-LEVEL LOW THEN CUTS 
OFF OVER SE STATES ~WED, WITH WRAP-AROUND PW AXIS AND DECENT LAPSE 
RATES REMAINING OVER THE FA. ALL THIS POINTS TO SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED 
WX PERIOD FOR THE LMK FA OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. 

AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROF TODAY/TONIGHT, 250MB DIVERGENCE AXIS ON THE 
MOIST SIDE OF A SW-NE ORIENTED PW GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT SHRA 
OVER THE FA, WITH HIGHEST CHCS FROM KLEX DOWN TWDS LAKE CUMBERLAND 
AND LOWEST OVER SRN IND. WED/WED NIGHT, DEFORMATION BANDING HINTED 
AT BY GFS/ETA ON POLEWARD SIDE OF 700MB LOW OVER GULF STATES. 21Z/07 
ETA-ENSEMBLE POPS PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE AS WELL, WITH HIGHEST POPS 
OVER SRN/CEN KY WED-WED NIGHT. COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND 
INSTABILITY, THREAT FOR SHRA THEREFORE TO CONTINUE MOST AREAS. 
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WED-WED NIGHT WEST OF I-65 COOL ENOUGH 
THAT SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN REGIONS OF INTENSE MESOSCALE 
LIFT, BUT CERTAINLY THE DOMINANT PTYPE LOOKS TO BE RA. 

INTO THU-THU NITE 500MB LOW TRANSLATES EWD SLOWLY. PER ETA/GFS OUT 
TO 84HRS, INGREDIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN FOR SOME -RA ESPECIALLY OVER 
ERN PARTS OF THE FA, WITH MORE SPRINKLES AND LOW OVC CLOUDS WITHIN 
COOL NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER WRN HALF. LARGE SCALE 500MB RIDGE THEN 
BUILDS INTO CENTRAL CONUS FRI ONWARD, PER GFS-ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHILE 
TROFINESS REMAINS OVER ERN SEABOARD. WILL HOLD ONTO A WARMING TREND 
AS SWLY SFC FLOW ENSUES BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, AND A DRY FCST AS 
MOST OF THE BAROCLINICITY AND ASSOC PCPN LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER NRN 
STATES OF CONUS.

.LMK...NONE.

XXV