PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 20 - 24 2004 . . . . . . . ALL THE MODEL RUNS EXCEPT THE DETERMINISTIC 0Z GFS RUN SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD...INCLUDING YESTERDAYS 12Z AND 18Z GFS SOLUTIONS. THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF THIS FORECAST ARE AN ANOM- ALOUS RIDGE OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR WITH THE ASSOCIATED POSITIVE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE...AND A MEAN TROUGH OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWEST SHORE OF HUDSON BAY. THE STRONG HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE NORTH OF THE 50N LATITUDE CIRCLE...AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE POLEWARD RETREAT OF THE JETSTREAM. RELATIVELY WEAK ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOWER 48...WEAKLY POSITIVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WEAKLY NEGATIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. THE 0Z GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE EAST-CENTRAL CANADIAN VORTEX WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MIDWESTERN U.S...AND APPEARS TO BE TOO COLD RELA- TIVE TO THE OTHER MODEL INTEGRATIONS. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAYS CANADIAN ENSEM- BLE CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAYS OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD SIMILARITY AND CONTINUITY BETWEEN ALMOST ALL OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICA- TIONS AND ANALOGS TO THE 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGHT PROG. THE COMPO- SITE ANALOG HEIGHT FIELD HAD AN EXCELLENT PATTERN CORRELATION OF 0.94 WITH TODAYS OFFICIAL BLEND...AND SO THE SURFACE ANALOGS WERE HEAVILY USED. BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z GFS WERE ALSO CONSIDERED. THE CDC REFORECAST TOOL WAS NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS TO THE 500- HPA BLENDED HEIGHT PROG... AND SUBJECTIVE CONSIDERATION OF THE 6Z GFS DAILY PRECIPITATION. IT IS ALSO BASED ON THE CALIBRATED GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES. THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITA- TION TOOL WAS NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 22 - 28 2004 DURING WEEK 2... THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVERALL ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN VICINITY. THE 0Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...PREDICTING THE DEEPEST TROUGH BY FAR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FOR THE MOST PART...THE OFFICIAL WEEK 2 CIRCULATION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PER- IOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BELOW NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 60 PERCENT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAYS 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND ONLY 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE TODAY ... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICA- TIONS AND ANALOGS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND. IT IS ALSO BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ANALOGS TO THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE OUTPUT WAS NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. THE 8 TO 14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CALIBRATED PRE- CIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND ON ANALOGS TO THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAND OF ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL...BUT THE BROAD PICTURE SEEMS TO FAVOR FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS REGION EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE CDC PRECIPI- TATION FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE... PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS. THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY JUNE 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19910628 - 19780525 - 19910529 - 19520628 - 19710628 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19910627 - 19990606 - 19780524 - 19530620 - 19520627 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 24, 2004 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING B N UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B B IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 28, 2004 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH N A ARIZONA B B COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$