AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 240 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2004 .SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)... DECENT PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET SEEN WITH CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING SEWD THRU 500MB FLOW OVER MIDWEST. WAA INCR ATTM OVER LMK FA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WITH TEMPS BEING MODULATED DOWNWARD BY BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SMALL CHC OF PCPN FROM SRN IN OVER INTO LEX THIS EVE, HWVR BEST LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN N/E OF LMK FA. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY -SN BASED ON RUC THERMAL PROFILES, WITH SOME -RA POSS. MORE SIGNIFICANT SYS THEN ARRIVES FROM DESERT SW SAT NIGHT, WITH WARM FRONTAL OVERRUNNING TYPE EVENT ANTICIPATED. STG 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OVER FA 9-15Z/SUN TIMEFRAME, MAXIMIZING BANDING AND HVY PCPN POTL. POLEWARD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT, ACROSS SRN IN/NRN KY, PCPN MAY BEING AS A PERIOD OF SN LATE SAT NIGHT, BASED MAINLY ON GFS BUFKIT PROFILES. THEN INTO PRE-DAWN HOURS, AS WARM 850MB PLUME ADVECTS NWD, PTYPE LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO FZRA, OR EVEN SLEET, DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF BL COLD LAYER. POTL IN THIS ZONE FOR 1/4-1/2" ICE ACCUMS SUN MORNING, THEREFORE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. NOTE, PCPN COULD COME DOWN AT A HIGH RATE WITHIN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND, ACCUMULATING QUICKLY WITHIN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME SUN MORNING. EQUATORWARD OF THE WARM FRONT, OVER SRN KY, MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THEN AS THE FRONT LIFTS NWD IN RESPONSE TO SECONDARY 500MB WAVE ROTATING THRU CEN CONUS, PCPN CHANGES TO MOSTLY RAIN BY MID-DAY SUN, WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS OVER SRN KY SUN AFTERNOON GIVEN GFS FCST SFC LI'S AROUND ZERO. QUITE THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTERNOON, DEPENDING ON FRONTAL POSN AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...PERHAPS 60 ALONG KY/TN LINE TO AROUND 35 OR 40 N OF I-64, MY BEST ATTEMPT GIVEN CURRENT DATA. INTO SUN NIGHT AND MON, SFC TROFINESS REMAINS IN VICINITY, HWVR WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW SATURATION DEPTHS, MAINLY JUST BKN-OVC SKIES WITH SOME SCT -SHRA OR SPRINKLES. XXV .LONG RANGE (DAYS 4-7)... ZONAL UPPER AIR FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. BY THURSDAY...A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL ALLOW ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH PERHAPS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PACIFIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD. YET ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BIG CHANGES ARRIVE THURSDAY AS BITTERLY COLD AIR INVADES THE UPPER MIDWEST. A DEEPENING STORM ACROSS THE THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO RAPIDLY MOVE SOUTH LATE THURSDAY. JSD && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...WINTER STORM WATCH SUN MORNING, ROUGHLY ALONG/E OF I-65. KY...WINTER STORM WATCH SUN MORNING, ROUGHLY ALONG/N OF A FT KNOX TO SPRINGFIELD TO STANFORD LINE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1055 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2004 .SHORT TERM... LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO WRN CWA IS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVR ERN SD AND WARM FRONT BISECTING STATE OF IA. LGT SW FLOW THROUGH H85 OVERRUNNING THE FRONT IS PRODUCING SWATH OF SNOW FM SRN MANITOBA INTO WRN UPR MI/NRN WI. ALTHOUGH 12Z SOUNDINGS FM INL/MPX/GRB WERE VERY MOIST...THINK AIRMASS OVR UPR MI (ESPECIALLY E HALF) IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF 12Z APX SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS DRY LAYER ABOVE 800MB. DLH RADAR AND SFC OBS DEPICT SHOWING VSBY IN THE 1-3SM WITH A POCKET OF 24-28DBZ SHOWING UP OVR NW WI. RUC/ETA ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT 280K CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS OKAY. THIS DATA ALONG WITH UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SWRN 1/4 OF CWA SEES BEST CHANCE OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. OTHERWISE...SNOW SHOULD AFFECT REST OF WRN HALF OF CWA BUT ACCUMS WELL UNDER AN INCH EXPECTED. OVR NE CWA LES CONTINUES IN WEAKENING NRLY FLOW. LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO PUSHING A ERLY COMPONENT WIND AS FAR W AS WHITEFISH POINT AS OF 15Z. N/NW FLOW OVR MUCH OF SERN LK SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY BACK SW AS LOW PASSES TO SW. THIS MAY PROMOTE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IN A BELT FM GRAND MARAIS TO TWO HEART THIS AFTN BEFORE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE. PAINTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN GRIDS THERE. TEMPS ACROSS MOST CWA ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT AS MOST TEMPS CURRENTLY STILL BLO ZERO AND A MIX TO 975MB WOULD YIELD LWR-MID SINGLE DIGITS AT BEST. UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY PUBLISHED. ZFP OUT SHORTLY. JLA .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 506 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2004... .LONG TERM... TONIGHT...DVLPG WEAK NERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF LOW MOVG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE LES ACCUMS OVER WEST AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF CWA ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. ETA INDICATES BEST CONVERGENT FLOW OVER WRN ALGER AND ERN MQT WHERE I WOULD EXPECT ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES BEFORE INVERSION CRASH BLO 4KFT WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. OTHER AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WOULD RECEIVE LOCAL ACCUMS AROUND AN INCH. SATURDAY...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BACKING TO NW AS SFC HIGH BLDS INTO MN. NW FLOW COULD YIELD ANOTHER 1-2" OF SNOW FOR ALGER-LUCE-NRN SCHOOLCRAFT...ALTHOUGH DRY AIR UPSTREAM AND LOWERING INVERSION HGTS THROUGH DAY WILL BE BIG LIMITING FACTOR...WRN COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE INCH OF LESS...WITH FLURRIES TO SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW VEERS EAST AS RDG AXIS SLIDES EAST OF LAKE. THIS ERLY WILL LIMIT ANY LIGHT LES TO THE KEW PENINSULA AND HURON MTNS. REST OF AREA SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES. COLD AIR BEING DRAWN IN FROM ONTARIO SHOULD DIP MIN TEMPS TO NEAR 10 BELOW IN THE EAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO ACROSS MOST OTHER AREAS OF CWA. SUNDAY...VERY DRY ERLY FLOW AROUND DOMINANT HIGH PRES WILL LIKELY DELAY ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM SRN PLAINS. BACKED OFF CHC OF SNOW UNTIL GENLY SUN AFT FOR MOST AREAS. IF 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMET WOULD VERIFY TIMING OF SNOW MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK EVEN FARTHER UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT OR MON. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO CONSIDER. VOSS && MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 917 PM FRI JAN 23 2004 UPDATE #2 WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...MAINLY TO INCLUDE AN LES ADVISORY FOR OSWEGO COUNTY...THOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WILL ALSO BE MADE TO OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AS WELL. KBUF/KTYX 88DS AND LOCAL RADARS SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED LES BAND ACROSS NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND FAR SW OSWEGO COUNTIES. THE BAND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND HAS BEEN VERY STEADY STATE IN NATURE THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...SHOWING ECHOES OF 25-30 DBZ OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY THE PAST HOUR. A CALL TO THE OSWEGO COUNTY SHERIFF INDICATED THAT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING IN THIS AREA...WHILE NOTHING WAS HAPPENING IN FULTON. IDEALLY...WE WOULD LIKE TO GET SNOWFALL ESTIMATES FROM A SPOTTER BEFORE MAKING THE CALL ON AN ADVISORY...BUT WE HAVE NONE IN THE AREA OF INTEREST. SO...WE ARE JUST MAKING THE CALL BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED INFO. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL 3"-6" ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY...BEFORE AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS/ZONE OF BEST CONVERGENCE SAGS SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND THE BAND EXITS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS GENERALLY OK. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...AND TO MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT THE GRIDS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP ACCUMS TO THE 1-3" RANGE FOR SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...AS THE LES OFF OF LAKE ERIE HAS BLOSSOMED A BIT THE PAST HOUR OR SO. EVEN SO...THIS SHOULD BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS DROP OFF/BEST CONVERGENCE MOVES OFFSHORE...AS INDICATED BY THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS. WRKZONES AND UPDATED WSW GONE...ZONES TO FLY IN A FEW. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW BELOW: ******* 506 PM DISCUSSION ******* WILL BE THROWING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE ERIE...AND RAISE ACCUMS SLIGHTLY. KBUF 88D SHOWS WEAK LES BAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING AND NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS CAUSE THE BAND TO BREAK APART. GRIDS/WRKZONES SENT...ZONES TO COME MOMENTARILY. THIS AFTERNOON'S AFD FOLLOWS BELOW... ******* 325 PM DISCUSSION ******* LAKE SNOWS ARE CONTINUING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND RUC AND ETA MODELS SHOW THEY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM AND THEN WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SHOULD WEAKEN THEM. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WITH THE CLIPPER MAY BRING LAKE SNOWS WEST OF ROCHESTER LATE TONIGHT, BUT UPPER SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES ON SATURDAY, A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REDEVELOP THE LAKE SNOWS ACROSS WAYNE NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY WITH WARMING ALOFT BEFORE A LOW SPREADS MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ETA SHOWS A BRIEF CHANCE OF A MIX ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE WARM AIR WELL TO THE SOUTH, WILL KEEP IT ALL SNOW. NUISANCE SNOWS ARE ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING BY ON THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION... A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE BANDS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS AT ROCHESTER LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT WATERTOWN AND AT BUF THIS EVENING BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AT BUF AS THE LAKE BAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT JAMESTOWN LATER THIS EVENING. .BUF...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT NYZ004-005 LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT NYZ006 $$ JJR ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 506PM FRI JAN 23 2004 WILL BE THROWING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE ERIE...AND RAISE ACCUMS SLIGHTLY. KBUF 88D SHOWS WEAK LES BAND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING AND NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS CAUSE THE BAND TO BREAK APART. GRIDS/WRKZONES SENT...ZONES TO COME MOMENTARILY. THIS AFTERNOON'S AFD FOLLOWS BELOW... ******* PREVIOUS AFD ******* LAKE SNOWS ARE CONTINUING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND RUC AND ETA MODELS SHOW THEY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM AND THEN WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SHOULD WEAKEN THEM. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WITH THE CLIPPER MAY BRING LAKE SNOWS WEST OF ROCHESTER LATE TONIGHT, BUT UPPER SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES ON SATURDAY, A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REDEVELOP THE LAKE SNOWS ACROSS WAYNE NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY WITH WARMING ALOFT BEFORE A LOW SPREADS MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ETA SHOWS A BRIEF CHANCE OF A MIX ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE WARM AIR WELL TO THE SOUTH, WILL KEEP IT ALL SNOW. NUISANCE SNOWS ARE ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING BY ON THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION... A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE BANDS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS AT ROCHESTER LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT WATERTOWN AND AT BUF THIS EVENING BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AT BUF AS THE LAKE BAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT JAMESTOWN LATER THIS EVENING. .BUF...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT NYZ004-005 $$ JJR/APB AVIATION...JJP ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 325 PM FRI JAN 23 2004 LAKE SNOWS ARE CONTINUING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND RUC AND ETA MODELS SHOW THEY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM AND THEN WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SHOULD WEAKEN THEM. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WITH THE CLIPPER MAY BRING LAKE SNOWS WEST OF ROCHESTER LATE TONIGHT, BUT UPPER SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES ON SATURDAY, A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REDEVELOP THE LAKE SNOWS ACROSS WAYNE NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY WITH WARMING ALOFT BEFORE A LOW SPREADS MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ETA SHOWS A BRIEF CHANCE OF A MIX ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE WARM AIR WELL TO THE SOUTH, WILL KEEP IT ALL SNOW. NUISANCE SNOWS ARE ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING BY ON THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION... A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE BANDS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS AT ROCHESTER LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT WATERTOWN AND AT BUF THIS EVENING BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AT BUF AS THE LAKE BAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO SETTLES FURTHER SOUTH. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT JAMESTOWN LATER THIS EVENING. .BUF...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT NYZ004-005 $$ APB AVIATION...JJP ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 915 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2004 FEW CHANGES NEEDED IN THE SHORT TERM. LATEST RUC & INTERPOLATION OF CLIPPER-INDUCED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOW SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FEWER CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE THICKEST & MOST PLENTIFUL BEFORE 4 AM WHEN THE UPPER DIVERGENCE & PVA EXIT THE AREA. THE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE LAST FEW HOURS... ALTHOUGH ONCE PARTIAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE... READINGS SHOULD DROP CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS. WILL MAKE JUST A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN A FEW SPOTS. 18Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT CURRENT FORECAST OF WINTERY PRECIP SUN INTO SUN NIGHT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE & WILL LIKELY RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL AFTER A LOOK AT 00Z UA/MODEL DATA. MAY NEED TO DELAY CLEARING ON MON WITH LINGERING BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT... THE POTENTIAL FOR JET DYNAMICS WITH THE PJ STILL JUST TO OUR NW... AND A RESIDUAL SMALL SCALE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE WITHOUT A GOOD MIXING MECHANISM. .PREV DISCUSSION... TONIGHT-SUN: WARM WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME SUN TOMORROW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB TO THE MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...CERTAINLY WOULDN/T COMPLAIN ABOUT VERIFYING THOSE MID 60S ON THE MET MOS THOUGH. COLD FROPA TOMORROW NIGHT AND ENSUING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE LOW LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SET THE TABLE FOR SOME FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIP SUNDAY. ETA HAS TRENDED COLDER...TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH HAS SHOWN CONSISTENCY IN THE THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD LEAVE OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST AND A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WITH SLEET...PERHAPS FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WOULD START AS SLEET IN THE REMAINDER OF PIEDMONTS... WITH FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS. TRANSITION TOWARDS RAIN IN THESE AREAS WOULD PROGRESS NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL BE THE MAJOR PROBLEM AS AN INCH OF SLEET...NEEDED FOR WATCH VERIFICATION...IS NOT TOO COMMON AN OCCURRENCE. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE TIME TO ALLOW ANOTHER RUN FOR COMPARATIVE PURPOSES...SO WILL BE REISSUING A MORE STRONGLY WORDED OUTLOOK...ALLOWING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO FLESH OUT THE PROBABLE WATCH. HIGHS STEADY IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE...WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEDGE ERODES. -MLM MON-FRI: A QUICK WARM UP AFTER WINTER EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMALS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER WILL LOWER CURRENT FORECAST MAXES DUE TO WET/FROZEN GROUND...USUALLY WITH THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES. ALSO TRICKY AS THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUD COVER. DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. BEST DYNAMICS WELL NORTH AND LITTLE GULF INFLOW. WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP...JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMALS. -RA && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. && $$ HARTFIELD nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 955 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2004\ .SHORT...SKC. SUNSHINE BATTLING WITH CAA TODAY. END RESULT WL BE A LITL WARNMING BUT NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. MRNG TEMP GRIDS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO WL NOT HAVE TO UPDATE ATTM. .MARINE...BORDERLINE SCA CONDS ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. NLY WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KT AND GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FEET AT THE DIAMOND BUOY. RUC MODEL SHOWS WNDS GRDLY BACKING FROM N TO NW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THUS ONLY MINOR CHGS TO WND DIR TO START. WILL KEEP MARGINAL SCA CONDS GOING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH N-NW WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCEC FOR THE SOUNDS WITH NLY WINDS 15-20 KT AND WAVES 2-3 FT. .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY S OF CURRITUCK BEACH TO SURF CITY. $$ TK/JC nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 850 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2004 .UPDATE... FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR NORTHERN ZONES TO LIKELY...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF FLURRIES CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES AND SFC OBS SHOWING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST...IN LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. LATEST RUNS OF GFS...RUC AND ETA DO INDICATE 5 HUNDREDTHS OR SO OF LIQUID PRECIP OVER MD ERN SHORE...SUPPORTING THE DECISION TO BOOST POPS THERE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE ERN SHORE...WHERE SBY AND WAL ALREADY BELOW FCST MINS...SBY 13 DEGREES AT 8 PM...OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES. MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST STILL ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH GFS SUPPORTING PERHAPS MORE SNOW OVER NRN ZONES...SNOW TO SLEET CENTRAL...SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN WEST...AND WINTRY MIX TO RAIN COASTAL SOUTHEAST. ETA A LITTLE WARMER...AT SFC AND ALFT...WUD PUSH THE RAIN FARTHER N AND W. WILL SEE WHAT THE 00Z RUNS BRING...AS THE STORM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER W TX. MID SHIFT WILL LIKELY MAKE CALL ON ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES THAT MAY BE NEEDED. && .MARINE... WILL DROP SCA NRN WATERS. && .AVIATION... GENLY VFR TNGT/SAT...XCPTN BEING PSBL PD OF MVFR TNGT SBY W/ PSBL LGT SN. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. VA...NONE. NC...NONE. && $$ DR/CY va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1005 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2004 .UPDATED... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW MAIN SNOW BAND...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM KRGK TO JUST NORTH OF KMSN. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH RUC 700MB- 600MB FN CONVERGENCE AREA. RUC PUSHES THIS AREA EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT ALREADY SEEING A DECREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA. WITH THIS SCENARIO...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS... BUT STILL FEEL 2 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY IN AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE RIVER. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TARGET. && RABERDING .PREV DISCUSSION .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AT 06Z WAS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER THE ETA OR GFS POSITION...BUT CLOSER TO THE GFS. 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES AT 08Z SHOWED THE LARGEST DROP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INDICATING THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN A LITTLER FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODEL TRACKS FOR THE TIME BEING. 850 MB TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE WAS REASONABLY INITIALIZED BY BOTH MODELS WITH EACH SHOWING SOME SLIGHT ERRORS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE NORTH DAKOTA SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO IOWA BY 18Z AND THEN INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z. THE ETA IS VERY SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH. STRONG LOW LEVEL QG FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING QUICKLY PUSHING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ETA SHOWS GOOD LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL WITH THE AXIS FROM 1000-850 MB OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN SLOPING UPWARD TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. BAND OF FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS FORCING INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THIS AREA. THE ETA ALSO SHOWS ALMOST 5 MICROBARS/S OF LIFT WITH ALL THE FORCING ON THE 280K SURFACE WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 10 TO 30 MB EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF BAND SETS UP. WILL HONOR THE FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF THE ETA BY EXPANDING HIGH POPS NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT WILL HOLD TIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE SOUTH EDGE IN THE EVENT THE LOW STAYS FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION. AROUND 2G/KG OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY THE ETA ON THE 280K SURFACE AND WITH THE COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE...THINK SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WATER RATIOS AROUND 25 TO 1. SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW HOLDING ON DURING THE EVENING. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS AND EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING TREND TO OCCUR. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE CLOUDS START TO RETURN TO THE AREA. WITH A COLDER START TO THE MORNING AND WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE REBOUND...LOWERED HIGHS QUITE A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BUT EXPECT TO SEE ONLY A MINIMAL DROP FROM DAYTIME HIGHS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KICK IN DURING THE EVENING AND START TO BRING VALUES BACK UP DURING THE NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOLUTION FROM THE 00Z RUN OF THE ETA LOOKS A LOT MORE LIKE THE GFS THAN THE 12Z RUN DID. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND OPTED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING CHANGES. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 00Z RUN OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN LATER MODEL RUNS A REDUCTION IN THE POPS FOR MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE IN ORDER. && .ARX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. IA...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ 04 wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 358 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2004 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE TEMPS AND GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER LAKES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL SYNOPTIC SNOW-MAKER FOR MONDAY. FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IS NOW NLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM MANITOBA IN THE WAKE OF LAST EVENING'S SHORTWAVE. DOMINANT BAND OVER THE WRN LAKE HAS MIGRATED SWD AND INLAND...AS EXPECTED...AND HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT IWD/CMX TO 1-2SM AT TIMES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCH OR TWO THIS MORNING (GREATEST OVER THE PORKIES)...W/ A PERIOD OF CONVERGENT FLOW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 5-6KFT. LES WILL PERSIST IN NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE U P AS WELL. WHEREAS THE ETA AND RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW POSSIBILITY OF MESOLOW DEVELOPING OFF OF ALGER CTY...SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. EITHER WAY...CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED INTO WRN ALGER CTY THIS MORNING. WILL GO WITH ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES IN THIS AREA...AS AN ETA SOUNDING NEAR MUNISING SHOWS INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 7 KFT. INVERSIONS FALL TO 3-5 KFT LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN LES ACCUMS SHOULD DIMINISH. FLOW ALSO BECOMES ELY ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL SHIFT FOCUS OF LES INTO THE KEWEENAW AND BARAGA/ MARQUETTE CTYS. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...SLIGHT CAA (H8 TEMPS TO AROUND -23C) WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS TODAY. MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE NO MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS HIGHER CLOUD BEGINS TO WORK IN. SAT NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY AS SKIES SHOULD BE MCLR INLAND. W/ WEAKER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MORE DOMINANT LAND BREEZES AS WELL...KEEPING LAKE CLOUDS/PCPN IN CHECK AWAY FROM THE SHORE (ETA AGAIN SHOWS A MESOLOW OVER THE SERN/SCNTRL LAKE). HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH THIS EXPECTED CLEARING AND DRY AIR (UPSTREAM DEWPTS ARE IN THE -20S). AFTER THIS PERIOD OF RELATIVELY BENIGN WX...THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AGAIN BY SUNDAY. HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET OF PCPN UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...KEEPING SNOW OUT OF THE EAST UNTIL MONDAY...AS ELY FEED OF DRY AIR WILL HAVE ITS USUAL EFFECT. ETA ACTUALLY KEEPS THE ENTIRE U P DRY UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THIS AND THE GFS (WHICH IS ALSO SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN). MODEL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE STILL EXIST REGARDING MONDAY'S SYSTEM...BUT LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD AS SFC LOW TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOMEWHERE IN LOWER MI BY 00Z TUE. A CYCLONIC E TO NELY FLOW AND FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE PARTICULARLY (NEW GFS GIVES A FOOT OF SNOW). WILL KEEP THIS HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO OF COURSE. OF NOTE IS THAT THE GFS LOOKS TO BE TRENDING SLOWER/DEEPER W/ EMERGING ROCKIES TROUGH...AND MAY BE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE UKMET/ECMWF. THE FASTER AND WEAKER ETA APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. && MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ JKL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 311 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2004 .DISCUSSION... CIRCULATION AROUND POLAR VORTEX OVER EASTERN QUEBEC HAS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NUMEROUS WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE SHOWN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. LINGERING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME FLURRIES OVER THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE NOW NOSING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION TODAY...SUPPLYING WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TO SE MICHIGAN. BOTH MESO ETA AND RUC SOLUTIONS SHOW JUST ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD OVER LAKE HURON TO MAINTAIN ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY JUST OFFSHORE. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF JUST LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE THUMB IN CASE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO BRUSH THE SHORELINE. WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...850MB TEMPS ACTUALLY HOVER AROUND -20C THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS DESPITE THE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE TEENS THUS LOOK REASONABLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THOUGH. DO THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW MORE COOLING THAN SUGGEST BY MAV GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. WILL THEREFORE SIDE WITH THE ETA MOS AND GO WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR DETROIT TO BELOW ZERO IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB REGION. THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW NOW OVER BAJA WILL BE THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS IT QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP ALREADY SHOWS AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING IT SHEARING APART AS IT LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION GIVEN ITS BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...MOST OF THE LIFT AND COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 800MB...CONTINUALLY FEEDING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. WILL THUS REMOVE POPS FROM SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DOES ADVECT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-94. WILL THUS INCREASE POPS UP TO LIKELY IN THIS REGION AND MAINTAIN JUST CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I-94. AT THIS POINT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE THAT MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS WAVE WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THEN LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS TO DEEPEN THIS WAVE. WILL THEREFORE LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT IS THE MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL THEREFORE BE STRONGER AND SLOWER AND TAKE ON A TRACK THAT IS FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY TAKES THE LOW INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT RATHER BRIEF OVER SE MICHIGAN AND MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WILL NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. WILL HOWEVER MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE DETROIT AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO THE FACT THAT A LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR IN THE 900-800MB LAYER IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. AGAIN...AT THIS POINT...QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO LOW FOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE REACHED. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ CONSIDINE EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 1009 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2004 .SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED. && .DISCUSSION... .REST OF TONIGHT...COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING AS WEATHER IS NOT EXACTLY AGREEING WITH 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THE 00Z MODELS SUGGESTED THE MUCH DRIER UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WOULD BE AT THE CASCADES BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE SWEPT IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF STRONG NORCAL SHORTWAVE GIVING US A RESURGANCE OF PRECIPITATION. RUC 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS A LEAST YIELDING A FAIR DEPICTION OF THE CURRENT WEATHER AND SHOWS A WIDE SWATH OF LOW CONDESATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER MUCH OF THE INLAND NW. LATEST SPOKANE RADAR PIX SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND SPOTTER REPORTS HAVE INDICATED A FEW 1-3 INCH SNOW REPORTS IN THE VALLEYS. SUSPECT THESE AREAS COULD SEE ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES BEFORE THE DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CORNER OF WA MOVES INTO REGION LATE TONIGHT. WE EXPECT THE SNOWS TO END OVER THE OKANOGAN VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT... AND THE COLVILLE AREA BY 11Z. THINGS WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER OVER NORTH IDAHO. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WILL EXTEND THE HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SUSPECT WE COULD RECEIVE A FEW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW REPORTS OVER THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS...HOWEVER SINCE THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF HERE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ITS NOT WORTH HOISTING A VERY SHORT TERM WINTER HEADLINE. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF OVER ALL OF THE INLAND NW...THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS A COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW... CURRENTLY OFF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS DROPS INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL POSE IT OWN POTENTIAL PROBLEMS...HOWEVER FOR NOW THE CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONING THE BEST POPS FOR THE IDAHO PANHANDLE SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN GOOD OROGRAPHICS AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ...FYI...THE EARLIER READING OF 54F AT THE WENATCHEE AIRPORT WAS THE RESULT OF AN EQUIPMENT FAILURE...SO PLEASE DISREGARD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SPOKANE 029 032 023 030 022 029/ 70 60 40 20 20 30 COEUR D'ALENE 031 032 023 030 022 028/ 90 60 50 20 30 30 PULLMAN 032 033 024 032 025 031/ 90 60 40 20 30 40 LEWISTON 034 037 026 039 030 039/ 90 50 50 20 30 30 COLVILLE 027 030 017 025 016 022/ 80 60 50 30 30 30 SANDPOINT 028 030 018 023 017 021/100 70 60 40 50 50 WALLACE 029 031 019 025 018 024/100 80 60 50 60 50 MOSES LAKE 031 035 024 031 023 032/ 30 30 30 20 20 20 WENATCHEE 029 036 024 033 023 032/ 40 30 30 20 20 20 OMAK 028 032 020 026 019 024/ 70 50 30 20 20 20 && .OTX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...HEAVY SNOW WARNING ZONES 1 AND 4 EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. WA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING ZONE 37 EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && $$ wa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 425 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2003 .DISCUSSION... MANY THINGS TO LOOK AT AND PONDER THIS MRNG. SPLIT CONTS WITH THE UPR MIDWEST TO BE AFFECTED BY THE EJECTING SWRN SYS AND NRN BRANCH SYS ON ITS TAIL. THE TWO PRIME MDLS CONT TO BE RELATIVE SIMILAR SYNOPTICALLY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AS USUAL. IN THIS CASE THE QPF IS RELATIVELY IN REASON AND BOTH IN AMTS AND PLACEMENT...WHICH IS UNUSUAL. WHICH PROBABLY MEANS THEY ARE BOTH WRONG. IF YOU LOOK AT THE RUC THRU 48HRS...THEY ARE. IT PLACES THE QPF MAX MORE TO THE E THRU CNTRL INTO SERN IA VS ACRS WRN INTO NC IA. WE SHALL SEE. AT THE MOMENT AM NOT HEADLINING ANYTHING. PREDICTING THAT THE SNOWFALL WL NOT REACH 12HR CRITERIA. THE AVN IS SOMEWHAT COLDER AND THUS THE PCPN TYPE IS MORE SNOW FARTHER TO THE S IN SRN IA. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH A TWEAK TO THE S WITH PCPN TYPE IN THE FORM OF SLEET IN SC IA AND SOME FRZG RAIN IN THE FAR SW FOR A TIME ERLY TMR MRNG. IF YOU LOOK AT A X-SECTION FM S OF BEDFORD TO ARND FRM YOU SEE THAT WE HAVE AN RH PROBLEM...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE ISENT LIFT IS NOT HUGE EITHER WITH RELATIVELY FLAT ISENTROPES. ISENT IS QUITE GRDL...TAKING ITS TIME TO SATURATE BY 12Z TMR MRNG IN THE SW. LIFT KICKS IN BY 15Z OR SO IN THE S AND MIGRATES NWD TWDS SPENCER SHORTLY AFT 18Z WHERE THE RH IS LACKING IN THE LOW LVLS. A RATHER DRY ELY FLOW (COLD CONVEYOR) WL HIND PCPN IN THE NC AND NERN ZONES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. LOOKING MORE ORGANIZED LIFT ASSOC WITH THE NRN SYS KICKS SHORTLY AFT 00Z TMR NGT...PRODUCING SOME ACCUMS IN NW TWD NC. DID NOT CHG MUCH OF ANYTHING BYD THIS SYS. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MYERS ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1106 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2004 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER QUEBEC. A RIDGE IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OF SOUTHWEST CANADA...WHILE A LOW DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS OTHERS ARE TOPPING THE CANADIAN RIDGE. AN ARCTIC RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO PULL COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND PRODUCING MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE AREAS PRONE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WITH A NORTHWEST WIND. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL CONTINUE OVER ALGER...LUCE...AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS THERE IS A LONGER FETCH FOR THE COLD AIR TO ABSORB MORE MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE. THE RIDGE WILL BUILDING OVER THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE DELTA-T'S OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX TO SURFACE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OVER NORTHERN LUCE AND ALGER COUNTIES. THE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE WEST...EXPECT HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN LUCE COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE THE AMOUNT EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1035 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2004 .UPDATE... ACTUALLY THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE. SEEMS THE UPDATE AT 609 AM IS HOLDING WELL. THE LAKE SNOW CONVERGENCE BAND IS BEHAVING AS SUGGESTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THANKS TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER WI AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MI (A LAND BREEZE SORT OF THING/THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST). THE LATEST RUC (12Z) AT 925 MB SHOWS WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY BUT HOLDS THE LAKE CONVERGENCE BAND WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS. THERE IS SOME DECREASE THE MEAN RH IN THE AREA OF THE LAKE BAND AFTER 15Z. THAT IS THE 1000/850 MB MEAN RH OVER THE LK MI SHORE OF LOWER MICHIGAN NEAR MKG/LDM DROPS FROM NEAR 90 PCT AT 12Z...TO 80 PCT AT 18Z...TO 77 PCT BY 21Z. EVEN SO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HANGS IN THERE. THE CLOUD TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW -12C (925 MB TEMP NEAR -15C IN LAKE BAND AREA WEST OF LDM MOST OF TODAY)...AND MEAN RH VALUES STAY OVER 70 PCT TODAY IN THE LAKE SNOW BAND AREA. SO I SEE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THIS SNOW BAND WILL GO AWAY. THUS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE SHORE AREAS OVER OUR NW CWA WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL STAY OVER THE LAKE THOUGH. INLAND DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...STILL SOME CU POTENTIAL WITH INVERSION HEIGHT ON RUC NEAR 10000 FT. SO PARTLY SUNNY SEEMS FINE INLAND. HIGHS FROM 15 TO 20 SEEMS FINE TOO BASED ON SOUNDING AND 12Z 1000/925 THICKNESS FORECAST FROM ETA. .GRR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO 1015 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2004 .DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER ID THIS MORNING WITH TWO UPPER TROF/LOW PUSHES TO DRIVE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON TODAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER NW WA AT 16Z DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OVER E WA AND N ID THIS AFTERNOON THEN DRIFTS E AND WEAKENS OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY. FRONTOGENTIC LAYER 7-5/PVU GROWS FROM A SMALL AREA NEAR SPOKANE LATE THIS MORNING TO COVER WEST CENTRAL MTS WITH 4/.4PVU THIS AFTERNOON A POSSIBLE (0.2 PVU PREFERRED) INDICATOR FOR HEAVY SNOW. THIS IS ACCOCIATED WITH A SATELLITE SIGNATURE...A DISTINCT UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE FROM AROUND HERMISTON TO SPOKANE AT 16Z WHICH SHIFTS ESE BY 00Z FROM NE OF BOISE TO SW OF GREAT FALLS. HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN CENTRAL MTS WELL SUPPORTED BY THIS AND OTHER SAT/RADAR TRENDS AND RUC/MESOETA FCST. COLD FRONT FROM BAKER TO BURNS AROUND 10 AM MST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THROUGH UPPER TV IN THE MID AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH TWIN IN THE EARLY EVENING. CATEGORICAL-LIKELY POPS SW IDAHO TAPERING OFF TO 20-50 PCT BEHIND FRONT. MINOR UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THESE TRENDS. WILL UPDATE AGAIN AT NOON FOR HEADLINES. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG NORTHERN CA COAST AT 09Z TURNED SOUTHEAST TOWARD GREAT BASIN LAST COUPLE HOURS IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER COLD DIGGING S/WV OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF CA SYSTEM SPREAD SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST ORE INTO SOUTHWEST ID MOUNTAINS DURING NIGHT WITH SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING PER KBOI MORNING RAOB/MODEL SOUNDINGS. WITH THIS COOLING SLIGHT THREAT OF LOW VALLEY FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING DECREASED AND HAVE ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST ORE AREA EXPIRE AT 12Z. SNOW TO CONTINUE SPREADING EAST ACROSS REST OF SOUTHWEST ID ZONES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF DIGGING NORTHERN S/WV. GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT/DEEP MOISTURE BAND KEEPS HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER WEST CENTRAL/BOI MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WARNING CONTINUING THROUGH NOON. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN S/WV MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WA AT 09Z INTO SOUTHEAST ORE ZONES LATER THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWEST ID ZONES THIS AFTERNOON TURNING SNOW TO SNOW SHOWERS IN COLDER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF REGION SUN WHILE S/WV TROUGH AROUND 48N/150W APPROACHES NORTHWEST COAST. GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING ONE INCH AND THIS SYSTEM MERGES WITH DEEPENING/BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WHICH DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA AND MOVES THROUGH REGION SUN NIGHT/MON. MODEL QPF TOTALS WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE NEED FOR WINTER STORM WATCH NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AND WILL ADVISE DAY CREW WITH 12Z MODEL RUN TO LOOK AT THIS POTENTIAL. PASSAGE OF S/WV TROUGHS PAST COUPLE DAYS THROUGH TODAY HAVE FINALLY BROKEN STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS OF PAST COUPLE WEEKS. HOWEVER TEMPS REMAIN UNDER NORMAL DUE TO COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS NORTHWEST OVER THE CWA TUESDAY BUT BECOMES ZONAL BY THURSDAY ON THE GFS. THE LATEST 500 MB SHORT WAVE PATTERN ON THE GFS HAS DEVIATED FROM THE EC/UK AND ITS PREVIOUS RUN BY PLACING A COOLER CLOSED LOW IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS FEATURE DOES OPEN THE CWA TO MORE ZONAL FLOW DAMPENING THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE THAT WAS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SEEN IN THE LAST EC RUN. I WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT WAIT AND SEE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS. SO EACH DAY HAS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .ID...HEAVY SNOW WARNING THRU NOON TODAY WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ZNS 11 13. .OR...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM..KP LONG TERM...DH id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 330 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2004 .DISCUSSION... ETA MODEL SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWFA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG SURROUNDING OFFICES...AND HPC IS THAT THE ETA PROBABLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SHALLOW COLD AIR SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE REGION...AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING IS SOUTH OF THE FA...BETWEEN JONESBORO AR AND MEMPHIS TN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIPITATION...RAIN...COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EAST ARKANSAS...TRYING TO SPREAD NE. THE RUC THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS HOLDS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE FA. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF S/WV RIDGING ALOFT THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF EJECTING MID LVL S/WV CURRENTLY OVER W TX. THIS HOLD WILL NOT LAST LONG...WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING RAPIDLY NE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. DRY AIRMASS INITIALLY IS FORECAST TO SATURATE DOWN QUICKLY...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH A MIX MENTION AT ONSET...USING SLEET. A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO ACROSS THE AREA...BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TO DETAILED...SINCE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN...WITH TIME. QPF FAIRLY ROBUST. WE FOLLOWED HPC THINKING AND WENT WITH QPF SIMILAR TO THE GFS...WHICH SHOWS 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF LIQUID THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. ETA SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME THING. SO WENT WITH ICE STORM WARNING NORTH...AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. ICING POTENTIAL MORE MARGINAL THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO...AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO 32. FROM SRN IL INTO SW INDIANA...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE UPPER 20S...A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR APPRECIABLE ICING...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS. A COUPLE OF THINGS TO WATCH FOR...WILL BE HOW SHALLOW THE COLD AIR ACTUALLY IS. IF VERY SHALLOW...MAY NOT TAKE MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION TO DRAG DOWN BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WHICH MAY PLAY HAVOC WITH SFC TEMPERATURES. ALSO...INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL HAVE AN EFFECT. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR...AND ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. WILL TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE S/WV TROF...AND CONTINUE WITH THAT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE RELIEF TO AREAS THAT MAY GLAZE. ON MONDAY...UKMET/CANADIAN SLOWER THAN GFS AND ESPECIALLY ETA...WITH COMPACT AND ENERGETIC S/WV TROF MOVG EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MIDDAY MONDAY...TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THEM INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ASSOC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING...SO WILL MENTION A MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING THE PRECIP. QUIET WX EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH AT THE MOMENT. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A REAL GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. AS FAR AS THE LATEST GFSX SHOWING WARMER NUMBERS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...DID NOT BITE ON THAT YET. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH HPC AND ITS DECISION TO FOLLOW COLDER ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING GENERALLY NORTH OF A MARION TO GREENVILLE LINE. MO...ICE STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PERRY COUNTY. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR BOLLINGER AND CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTIES. IL...ICE STORM WARNING NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO SHAWNEETOWN LINE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS. IN...ICE STORM WARNING ALL OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1120 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2004 .UPDATED... STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AXIS HAS WORKED INTO EASTERN CWA WITH. TWO DISTINCT RUC FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE AREAS SEEM TO BE MATCHING UP PRETTY WELL WITH WSR-88D AREAS OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY...ONE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE OTHER ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE SIGNALS DO WEAKEN SOME THROUGH AFTERNOON IN RUC PROGS BUT AS AXIS OF STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION TRACKS EAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW EXPAND ACROSS EASTERN CWA. TEMPS/WINDS/SKY COVER ARE ON TRACK AND MADE MINIMAL CHANGES HERE. DID LOWER AFTERNOON ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. LEFT HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW WITH DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WILL NEED TO UPGRADE WATCH IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE ACROSS EASTERN CWA FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH CENTRAL SD 18Z SATURDAY TO 00Z MONDAY. WINTER STORM WATCH NORTHEAST SD 00Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY. MN...WINTER STORM WATCH BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES 00Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY. && $$ MARSILI sd