####018003101####
ABIO10 PGTW 131200

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/131200Z-131800ZDEC2008//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N 66.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 620 NM WEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130116Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE
WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS PROVIDING A
GOOD POLEWARD CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N
50.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 48.9E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MADAGASCAR WHICH IS BEGINNING TO HAVE AN IMPACT
ON THE LLCC STRUCTURE AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHEAST. A 130252Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC,
HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY APPEARS TO BE OVER LAND BASED ON
IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.3S 76.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 130104Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS ALSO IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AS A POOR,
ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AS A FAIR, AND DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA.
2.B.(1) TO A POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//