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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 07 1998

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST DAY OR SO AND IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO HAVE BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY SHEAR AND IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
MASS.  HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE BEING GENERATED NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...WHICH HAD BEEN RATHER
PALTRY...IS GETTING A LITTLE BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THEREFORE THE
SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE LESSENING AND SOME
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  THIS IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WITH COOLING OCEAN TEMPERATURES BRAKING THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS LATER IN THE PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION...QUITE UNCERTAIN FOR A NEWLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/09.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ELEVEN-E.  MOREOVER THE NCEP
GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A SIZEABLE 500 MB TROUGH DROPPING INTO CALIFORNIA
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE FLOW FEATURES COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO
TURN MORE TO THE RIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN RECURVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
TOWARD BAJA.  NOTWITHSTANDING...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS FAVOR A
MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THEM LOOK A BIT BIZARRE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES MORE WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TRENDS
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT DEPENDING ON OBSERVED AND MODEL TRENDS.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 19.7N 110.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.4N 111.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.3N 113.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.2N 114.4W    45 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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