Mt An 2-1 (10-08) Cattle on Feed National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 17, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Cattle on Feed" call Jason Hardegree at (202) 720-3040, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 5 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.4 million head on October 1, 2008. The inventory was 5 percent below October 1, 2007 and 9 percent below October 1, 2006. The inventory included 6.51 million steers and steer calves, down 5 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 63 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.85 million head, down 5 percent from 2007. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.28 million, 6 percent below 2007 but 2 percent above 2006. Net placements were 2.23 million head. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 445,000, 600-699 pounds were 415,000, 700-799 pounds were 541,000 and 800 pounds and greater were 880,000. Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.81 million, 7 percent above 2007 and 3 percent above 2006. Other disappearance totaled 51,000 during September, 6 percent below 2007 and 25 percent below 2006. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, October 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ------ Percent : On Feed Sep 1 1/ : 10,986 10,302 9,997 91 97 Placed on Feed During Sep : 2,227 2,415 2,281 102 94 Fed Cattle Marketed During Sep : 1,760 1,696 1,812 103 107 Other Disappearance During Sep 2/ : 68 54 51 75 94 On Feed Oct 1 : 11,385 10,967 10,415 91 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, September 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ----- Percent : On Feed Aug 1 1/ : 10,822 10,299 9,869 91 96 Placed on Feed During Aug : 2,290 2,119 2,061 90 97 Fed Cattle Marketed During Aug : 2,067 2,066 1,884 91 91 Other Disappearance During Aug 2/ : 59 50 49 83 98 On Feed Sep 1 1/ : 10,986 10,302 9,997 91 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, United States, October 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2008 as % of Item :------------------------------------------ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Head ----- Percent : Class on Feed Oct 1 : Steers and Steer Calves : 7,197 6,832 6,513 90 95 Heifers and Heifer Calves : 4,122 4,070 3,848 93 95 Cows and Bulls : 66 65 54 82 83 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Oct 1, 2008 : : :------------------------------------------ State : Oct 1, 2007 : Sep 1, 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Sep -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 350 362 360 103 99 CA : 540 505 505 94 100 CO : 940 770 870 93 113 ID : 210 180 195 93 108 IA : 510 470 475 93 101 KS : 2,310 2,090 2,160 94 103 NE : 2,140 1,960 2,110 99 108 NM : 133 167 173 130 104 OK : 325 305 315 97 103 SD : 180 165 175 97 106 TX : 2,840 2,580 2,590 91 100 WA : 154 138 157 102 114 : Oth Sts: 335 305 330 99 108 : US : 10,967 9,997 10,415 95 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Sep 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Sep 2007 : Aug 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Aug -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 28 33 24 86 73 CA : 60 37 55 92 149 CO : 255 190 255 100 134 ID : 48 45 57 119 127 IA : 100 72 81 81 113 KS : 540 520 485 90 93 NE : 540 445 550 102 124 NM : 17 27 27 159 100 OK : 72 70 60 83 86 SD : 43 28 56 130 200 TX : 590 510 510 86 100 WA : 36 36 44 122 122 : Oth Sts: 86 48 77 90 160 : US : 2,415 2,061 2,281 94 111 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Placed on Feed by Weight Group, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : During September :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 35 20 40 30 60 45 120 160 255 255 KS : 140 80 140 100 130 155 130 150 540 485 NE : 100 80 80 70 120 120 240 280 540 550 TX : 190 145 170 150 165 130 65 85 590 510 : Oth Sts : 145 120 75 65 90 91 180 205 490 481 : US : 610 445 505 415 565 541 735 880 2,415 2,281 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : During August :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under 600 : 600-699 : 700-799 : 800 Plus : Total :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : CO : 25 15 30 20 40 50 75 105 170 190 KS : 100 65 120 105 160 190 140 160 520 520 NE : 75 60 70 60 115 105 205 220 465 445 TX : 160 125 160 170 140 140 60 75 520 510 : Oth Sts : 130 100 60 55 94 81 160 160 444 396 : US : 490 365 440 410 549 566 640 720 2,119 2,061 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Number Marketed, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Sep 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Sep 2007 : Aug 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Aug -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ----------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 24 27 25 104 93 CA : 47 45 53 113 118 CO : 160 165 150 94 91 ID : 41 44 41 100 93 IA : 79 75 75 95 100 KS : 355 430 400 113 93 NE : 320 395 390 122 99 NM : 13 23 20 154 87 OK : 56 54 49 88 91 SD : 37 32 44 119 138 TX : 480 510 490 102 96 WA : 29 30 24 83 80 : Oth Sts: 55 54 51 93 94 : US : 1,696 1,884 1,812 107 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle on Feed: Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : During Sep 2008 : During : During :------------------------------------------ State : Sep 2007 : Aug 2008 : : as % of : as % of : : : Number : 2007 : Aug -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- ---- Percent ---- : AZ : 2 1 1 50 100 CA : 3 2 2 67 100 CO : 5 5 5 100 100 ID : 2 1 1 50 100 IA : 1 2 1 100 50 KS : 15 10 15 100 150 NE : 10 10 10 100 100 NM : 2 1 1 50 100 OK : 1 1 1 100 100 SD : 1 1 2 200 200 TX : 10 10 10 100 100 WA : 1 1 1 100 100 : Oth Sts: 1 4 1 100 25 : US : 54 49 51 94 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed by Class, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Quarter, State, and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Steers & Steer Calves :Heifers & Heifer Calves: Cows and Bulls :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Oct 1, :Jul 1, :Oct 1, :Oct 1, :Jul 1, :Oct 1, :Oct 1, :Jul 1, :Oct 1, : 2007 : 2008 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AZ : 349 354 359 1 2 1 0 0 0 CA : 490 470 455 50 50 50 0 0 0 CO : 575 485 515 360 330 350 5 5 5 ID : 114 112 101 91 86 89 5 2 5 IA : 350 335 345 159 165 130 1 0 0 KS : 1,220 1,135 1,225 1,065 940 920 25 5 15 NE : 1,280 1,270 1,200 850 775 900 10 5 10 NM : 82 78 77 51 76 96 0 0 0 OK : 220 190 225 105 110 90 0 0 0 SD : 87 93 82 80 75 78 13 17 15 TX : 1,740 1,600 1,590 1,097 1,059 998 3 1 2 WA : 80 65 84 73 74 72 1 1 1 : Oth Sts : 245 245 255 88 81 74 2 4 1 : US : 6,832 6,432 6,513 4,070 3,823 3,848 65 40 54 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Terms and Definitions of Cattle on Feed Estimates Cattle on feed are animals being fed a ration of grain, silage, hay and/or protein supplement for slaughter market that are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. It excludes cattle being "backgrounded only" for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot. Placements are cattle put into a feedlot, fed a ration which will produce a carcass that will grade select or better, and are intended for the slaughter market. Marketings are cattle shipped out of feedlots to a slaughter market. Other disappearance includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture, and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Reliability of Cattle on Feed Estimates Survey Procedures: During January and July all known feedlots in the U.S. with capacity of 1,000 or more head are surveyed to provide data for cattle on feed estimates. During the other months, all known feedlots from 17 States are surveyed. The 17 States account for 98 percent of the cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head. Estimating Procedures: These cattle on feed estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. Regional and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from the previous month when setting the current estimates. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve month to month relationships. Estimates for the previous month are subject to revision in all States each month when current estimates are made. In February, all monthly estimates for the previous year, and the number of feedlots and annual marketings from two years ago are reviewed and subject to revisions. The reviews are primarily based on slaughter data, state check-off or brand data, and any other data that may have been received after the original estimate was made. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date and estimates become final. Reliability: Since all 1,000+ capacity cattle on feed operators in every State are not included in the monthly survey, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for cattle on feed inventory estimates over the past 24 months is less than 0.1 percent (0.04). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 10.4 million head by more than 0.04 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.1 percent. The following table also shows a 24 month record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of number on feed as an example, changes between the first estimate and the latest estimate during the past 24 months have averaged 2,000 head, ranging from 0 to 18,000 head. During this period the initial estimate has not been above the final estimate, but has been below the final estimate 4 times. This does not imply that the initial estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of Monthly Cattle on Feed Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Months Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent: (000) :Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : Head : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : Number on : Feed : 0.0 0.1 10.4 2 0 18 0 4 : Placements : 0.2 0.3 6.8 3 0 10 5 6 : Marketings : 0.2 0.3 5.4 2 0 10 6 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on data for the past 24 months. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch..............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section..............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.........................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed...................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.........................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats...........................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. 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