Return to the KASS Homepage ------------------------------------------------------------------------ This page has been visited [***] times. LIVESTOCK KANSAS AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS Kansas Department of Agriculture PO Box 3534 Topeka, KS 66601-3534 Phone: 785-233-2230 Released: April 14, 2000 Volume 00, No. 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Text Box INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUE: CATTLE ON FEED ANNUAL SLAUGHTER TURKEY HATCHERY WOOL PRODUCTION & VALUE MARKET IMPLICATIONS ------------------------------------------------------------------------ KANSAS CATTLE ON FEED The number of cattle on feed on April 1, 2000, in Kansas feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity totaled 2.28 million head (see table 1), up 10 percent from a year ago but 2 percent below the number on hand March 1, 2000, according to Kansas Agricultural Statistics. Placements during March totaled 400,000 head, down 9 percent from a year ago and 5 percent below February 2000 placements of 420,000 head. Marketings during March totaled 420,000 head, 11 percent above March 1999 but 2 percent below February 2000. Other disappearance was 20,000 head, twice the number from a year ago and the previous month. The percent of March placements by weight was: under 600 pounds, 12.5 percent; 600-699 pounds, 20 percent; 700-799 pounds, 40 percent; and 800 pounds or heavier, 27.5 percent. Of the total number of cattle on feed, 59 percent were steer and steer calves, 41 percent heifer and heifer calves, and less than 1 percent were cows and bulls. Table 1-- CATTLE ON FEED, PLACEMENTS, MARKETINGS, AND OTHER DISAPPEARANCE, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by State and United States Number on Feed 1/ Other Dis- March March appearance Placements Marketings During Mar. State April 1 2/ Mar. 1 2000 % of 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 '99 -----1,000 Head----- (%) -------------------------------1,000 Head------------------------------- AZ 275 214 273 128 39 30 27 27 1 5 CA 405 385 405 105 55 59 50 51 5 8 CO 1,180 1,120 1,170 104 240 250 240 250 10 10 ID 305 280 320 114 58 69 49 47 4 7 IA 375 360 375 104 57 57 56 56 1 1 KS 2,320 2,080 2,280 110 440 400 380 420 10 20 NE 2,310 2,180 2,310 106 380 400 350 390 10 10 NM 105 94 93 99 13 13 24 22 2 3 OK 400 345 380 110 69 73 86 87 3 6 SD 200 182 200 110 45 34 46 32 1 2 TX 2,830 2,560 2,760 108 530 520 565 570 15 20 WA 210 179 221 123 46 53 42 38 6 4 Other States 415 415 405 98 59 58 71 63 3 5 7-St 3/ 9,695 8,899 9,573 108 1,741 1,716 1,668 1,764 52 74 U.S. 11,330 10,394 11,192 108 2,031 2,016 1,986 2,053 71 101 1/ Being fattened for slaughter market on grain or other concentrates to grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots. 3/ Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas. U.S. CATTLE ON FEED Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States from feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.19 million head on April 1, 2000 (see table 1). The inventory was 8 percent above April 1, 1999, and 11 percent above April 1, 1998. The inventory included 6.79 million steers and steer calves, up 8 percent from the previous year. This group accounts for 61 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.35 million head, up 7 percent from 1999. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 2.02 million, 1 percent below 1999, but 18 percent above 1998. Net placements were 1.92 million. During March, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 331,000, 600-699 pounds were 406,000, 700-799 pounds were 715,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 564,000. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 2.05 million, 3 percent above 1999 and 10 percent above 1998. Other disappearance totaled 101,000 during March, 42 percent above 1999 and 7 percent above 1998. Cattle on feed April 1, 2000, in the historic 7 States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.57 million, up 8 percent from the previous year and 11 percent above April 1, 1998. The inventory included 5.74 million steers and steer calves, up 7 percent from the previous year. This group accounts for 60 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.80 million head, up 8 percent from 1999. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.72 million, 1 percent below 1999 but 21 percent above 1998. Marketings during March totaled 1.76 million, 6 percent above 1999 and 12 percent above 1998. Other disappearance during March was 74,000 head, 42 percent above 1999 and 7 percent above 1998. Table 2- -CATTLE ON FEED: NUMBER PLACED ON FEED BY WEIGHT GROUP, 1,000+ CAPACITY FEEDLOTS , by State and United States, 1999-2000 Placed in March State Under 600 600-699 700-799 800 Plus Total 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 -------------------------------------------------1,000 Head ------------------------------------------------- CO 50 26 55 57 82 91 53 76 240 250 KS 45 50 105 80 190 160 100 110 440 400 NE 38 45 67 63 148 154 127 138 380 400 TX 109 100 165 140 204 190 52 90 530 520 Other States 115 110 76 66 120 120 130 150 441 446 US 357 331 468 406 744 715 462 564 2,031 2,016 Table 3-- CATTLE ON FEED: NUMBER ON FEED BY CLASS, 1,000+ FEEDLOTS, by Quarter, State, and United States, 1999-2000 Steer & Steer Calves Heifers & Heifer Cows and Bulls Calves State Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Jan. Apr. 1, Jan. 1, 1, 1, Jan. 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1999 2000 2000 1999 2000 2000 1999 2000 2000 --------------------------------------------------1,000 Head ------------------------------------------------- CO 695 650 680 420 520 485 5 10 5 KS 1,210 *1,360 1,340 860 *940 930 10 10 10 NE 1,280 1,340 1,370 885 940 920 15 20 20 TX 1,380 1,550 1,480 1,179 1,349 1,279 1 1 1 Other 1,728 1,940 1,915 709 825 736 17 20 21 States U.S. 6,293 *6,840 6,785 4,053 *4,574 4,350 48 61 57 * Revised. BEEF, PORK, AND RED MEAT PRODUCTION SET RECORD HIGHS IN 1999 Red meat production in commercial plants and on farms for the United States totaled 46.3 billion pounds in 1999. This was 2 percent higher than the previous record high set in 1998. Red meat includes beef, veal, pork, and lamb and mutton. Red meat production in commercial plants totaled 46.1 billion pounds. Beef production, at 26.5 billion pounds, was up 3 percent from a year earlier and 2 percent higher than the previous record high set in 1976. Pork production, at 19.3 billion pounds, eclipsed the previous record high set a year earlier by 2 percent. Commercial cattle slaughter during 1999 totaled 36.1 million head, up 2 percent from 1998, with federal inspection comprising 98.2 percent of the total. The average live weight was 1,210 pounds, up 7 pounds from a year ago. Steers comprised 49.6 percent of the total federally inspected slaughter, heifers 32.8 percent, dairy cows 7.3 percent, other cows 8.5 percent, and bulls 1.8 percent Commercial hog slaughter totaled 101.5 million head, up 1 percent from 1998 with 98.2 percent of the hogs slaughtered under federal inspection. The average live weight was up 3 pounds from last year, at 259 pounds. Barrow and gilts comprised 96.3 percent of the total federally inspected slaughter. TURKEY HATCHERY Turkey eggs in incubators on April 1, 2000, in the United States totaled 32.6 million, down 3 percent from April 1 a year ago. Eggs in incubators were up 5 percent from the March 1 total of 31.1 million. Regional percent changes from the previous year were: EN Central, down 5; WN Central, down 13; N & S Atlantic, up 6; S Central, up 6; and West, unchanged. The 25.8 million poults placed during March 2000 in the United States were down 1 percent from the placements during the same month a year ago. Placements were up 7 percent from the February 2000 total of 24.2 million. Regional percent changes from the previous year were; EN Central, down 4; WN Central, down 3; N & S Atlantic, up 4; S Central, up 3; and West, down 4. WOOL PRODUCTION Kansas shorn wool production during 1999 (see table 4) was 630,000 pounds, down 3 percent from a year earlier. Sheep shorn, at 90,000 head, showed a 3 percent decrease from 1998. Average fleece weight from shorn wool was 7.0 pounds per head, unchanged from 1998. The average price paid for wool sold in 1999 was 19 cents per pound, down 23 cents from 1998. Total value of shorn wool was $120,000, down 56 percent from 1998. U.S. shorn wool production during 1999 was 46.5 million pounds, down 5 percent from 1998. Sheep and lambs shorn totaled 6.15 million head, a decrease of 4 percent from 1998. The average price paid for wool sold in 1999 was 38 cents per pound for a total value of $17.9 million, down 39 percent from $29.4 million in 1998. Table 4-- WOOL PRODUCTION AND VALUE Year Sheep Weight per Shorn Wool Price per Value Shorn 1/ Fleece Production Pound 1,000 Head Pounds 1,000 Pounds Dollars 1,000 Dol. Kansas 1998 93 7.00 650 0.42 273 1999 90 7.00 630 0.19 120 United States 1998 6,428 7.66 49,255 0.60 29,415 1999 6,150 7.57 46,549 0.38 17,852 1/ Includes shearing at commercial feedyards. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Text Box MARKET IMPLICATIONS - Provided by Jim Mintert, Extension Ag Economist at KSU - Research & Extension Service Western Kansas slaughter cattle prices generally reach a peak in late March or April. Prices this year have followed the typical seasonal pattern as slaughter cattle prices in western Kansas climbed to $73 in mid-March, dropped back to $72 at the end of March and recovered to $73 in mid-April. Cash prices have rallied $5 per cwt. since the first of the year. Western Kansas slaughter cattle prices averaged near $70 during the January-March 2000 quarter, up almost 11 percent compared to a year ago. And the average price for slaughter steers during March 2000 topped $71 for the first time since November 1996. The strength in live cattle and boxed beef prices has all been attributable to strong demand as average daily beef production during 2000 (through mid-April) was actually up over 2 percent compared to the year ago period. Total cattle slaughter during this period was 1.5% larger than in 1999 and dressed cattle weights averaged 0.8% heavier than in 1999. Part of the increase in cattle weights was attributable to a shift in the slaughter mix towards more steer and heifer (i.e., fed) slaughter and less cow slaughter, but part of the weight increase was also attributable to heavy fed cattle weights. But fed cattle weights showed signs of backing off in late March. For example, dressed steer weights fell below a year ago 3 out of 4 weeks in March and live weights in the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle region actually fell 2% below a year ago the last week of March. Fed cattle weights could remain below a year ago during much of the spring quarter as cattle feeders work their way through last fall and winter's light placements. If that happens, it could provide some price support and, perhaps, slow down the expected decline in slaughter cattle prices. Today's Cattle On Feed report revealed both an April 1 on feed inventory and fed cattle marketings during March that were close to trade expectations, but placements during March were larger than expected. Although March placements did fall below the previous year's level, the 3% decline in 7-state net placements (gross placements minus other disappearance) was disappointingly small. Year-to-date, net placements are still 5% larger than a year ago. Recent western Kansas cash prices in the low $70's will likely turn out to be the spring price peak. Slaughter cattle prices are expected to weaken as the spring quarter progresses as cattle feeders work their way through last fall and winter's large placements. Odds favor cash prices dropping below $70 by late May and trading in the high $60's all summer. But placements are likely to remain below 1999 levels for an extended period and that suggests slaughter cattle supplies will tighten by fall. As a result, cash prices are expected to rally from the upper $60's this summer to the low to mid-$70's this fall. This week's stock market decline did not spill over into the livestock complex. But the decline in stock prices is troubling because growth in consumer income and consumers' willingness to spend a growing percentage of their income has been a contributing factor to the strength in red meat demand observed in 1999 and early 2000. If the stock market decline precipitates weakness in the U.S. economy and, ultimately, consumer spending, it could signal the end of the red meat demand boom experienced in 1999 and early 2000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Doug Hartwig & John Cole, Agricultural Statisticians Eldon J. Thiessen, State Statistician Eddie Wells, Deputy State Statistician Return to the KASS Homepage