FXUS65 KLKN 282118
AFDEKO

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
215 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH H5 HEIGHTS SUPERIMPOSED SHOWS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. DRY...STABLE AIR AND
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION ARE SUPPORTING ANOTHER SUNNY DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. GFS/ETA H5
HEIGHT PATTERN IS FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER NEW MEXICO. H5 HEIGHTS/H7 TEMPS DROP
2-3 DM/2-3 C RESPECTIVELY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT COOLING.
HOWEVER...DESPITE DIMINUTIVE COOLING...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR SITES IN
ZONES 35/37 WILL BE THREATENED. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO FOR TUESDAY...AND RECORDS LOOK SAFE...EXCEPT PERHAPS A SOFT
RECORD IN WELLS. MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY WILL RULE THROUGH TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE FROM SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WON'T MAKE IT INTO CWA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. 12Z GFS LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE FEATURE...WITH BETTER MOISTURE
FIELDS AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING RIDGE. GFS GENERATES
SOME QPF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
A DRY ZONE FORECAST DUE TO INHERENT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH/TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES WITH SHORTWAVE.

.EXTENDED...UNCERTAINTIES AND A LACK OF HIGH CONFIDENCE PERSIST
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INFLUENCE FROM UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE
REMAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME QPF GENERATION BY GFS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE RESISTED THE
TEMPTATION TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
WEEKEND.

.EKO...NONE.

$$

PELOQUIN