FXUS04 KWBC 021913 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 213 PM EST THU DEC 02 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION VALID DEC 04/0000 UTC THRU DEC 05/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...PRELIM DAY 1... ...SYNOPSIS... ALL THE NUMERICAL GUID INDICATES DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPR LVL PTRN WL START THIS PD. THIS SHLD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO PCPN FOR MOST OF THE NATION. ...PAC NW... AN ELONGATED REGION OF MIDLVL ENERGY WL SLOLY DRIFT SEWD TWD THE PAC NW. THE ASSOCD CDFNT WLTWD THE REGION WITH INCRSG SWRLY FLOW THAT WL SUPPORT SOME LOLVL WAA/UPSLOPE. MOST OF THE PCPN WL REMAIN ACRS BRITISH COLUMBIA...BUT LGT AMTS ARE PSBLY ON FRI ACRS THE OLYMPICS...NRN CASCADES AND BITTERROOTS. ...NCNTRL TO GRT LKS... AN EARLY SEASON CLIPPER-TYPE LOW WL CROSS THE GRT LKS/NEW ENG TNGT WITH A SWATH OF LGT WAA PCPN. IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW NWRLY FLOW WL PROVIDE ENUF COLD AIR AND FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR A BRIEF PD OF LK SNWS. A SCND MIDLVL CLIPPER WL RIDE OVR THE NRN PLNS INTO THE MID WEST WITH LITTLE IF ANY MSTR OR LOLVL THERMAL SUPPORT. XPCT ONLY LGT SPOTTY PCPN WITH THIS SYS. ...XTRM SRN TX... MDLS ARE INDICATG MSTR RETURNG TO SRN TX THIS PD AS HI PRES OVR THE WRN GULF STS SUPPORTS PERSISTENT ERLY FLOW. THE MDLS ARE INDICATG A BNDRY DVLPG FM NERN MEX INTO THE GULF. WV SATL IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT PLUM OF MID/UPR LVL MSTR...WITH IMBEDDED IMPLUSES...RIDG OVR THE REGION. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUID SUPPORTS SVRL WEAK MIDLVL IMPULSES. XPCT THE BULK OF THE PCPN TO BE ALNG/N OF THE SFC BNDRY AND REMAIN OFFSHORE. DAY 2... ...PAC NW/FAR NRN CA/NRN GREAT BASIN... SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS SHRTWV ENERGY CENTERED OVER THE ERN PAC/GULF OF AK AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD IS FORECASTED TO DIG SEWD...CARVING OUT A WELL-DEFINED TROF JUST OFF THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL ALL PLAY A PART IN PRODUCING APPRECIABLE PCPN AMTS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. HEAVIEST AMTS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE COASTAL RANGES/NRN CASCADES AND THE BITTERROOTS. THE ETA SOLUTION FALLS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE MOST AMPLIFIED UKMET TO THE LEAST AMPLIFIED GFS. WHILE THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A WEAKER SOLUTION...THE MAJORITY...THE 12Z ECMWF AND SREF MEMBERS INCLUDED...SUGGEST THAT THE GFS IS UNDERDONE HERE. THAT SAID...LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE TIMING OF THE ETA HERE OVER THE GFS. ...TX/LA... LOW LVL MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NRN GULF WILL INTERACT WITH ILL-DEFINED SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY. ETA WITH ITS TYPICAL BIAS...LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY. ...UPR MS VLY/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST... SHRTWV ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPR JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. EXPECT SOME WARM ADVECTION PCPN TO SPREAD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS NRN NY INTO NRN NEW ENG. MEANWHILE...MORE LIGHT PCPN WILL FOCUS ALONG THE SYSTEM/S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING THU THE UPR GREAT LAKES/MS VLY. WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE ETA/UKMET/CAN GLOBAL SOLUTION...WHICH FAVOR A MORE SLY POSITION. ECKERT/PEREIRA GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 04/00Z 0.01 521269 522265 523261 525256 525252 525249 524246 523242 522240 520238 518234 518233 516229 516226 516224 516223 519222 522223 525224 528225 531225 531224 534223 536221 538216 538212 539212 541202 542196 541188 535182 531172 526164 522158 517152 509146 501141 495137 493133 489130 481126 477125 472125 470129 469136 474145 471150 470155 470159 472168 475172 478174 485180 491186 493190 494194 489197 484198 481201 476207 472215 473219 476221 478222 479225 475229 470231 467237 466243 465257 462281 460293 461304 464313 468322 472325 476324 481320 488315 493309 503302 507298 511293 0.01 530000 531990 529981 528975 525967 519954 514940 506906 500885 497869 493863 492859 488852 485849 482844 480839 480833 479824 477815 476810 474800 474794 476787 477771 474761 474753 473740 473732 477727 478721 477714 476709 474705 470700 453688 445676 437663 430657 425655 422656 420659 417666 417673 418679 419687 416688 415694 418703 424712 431727 432739 429750 427762 425769 421775 413783 407787 401790 390796 382806 381809 383809 388807 396801 407799 411799 412805 412812 412817 415821 427820 432820 436823 437827 435832 423851 421858 422862 424864 431869 432875 429880 424891 421903 421912 421919 422927 424929 427934 427940 425945 423954 423958 424966 427978 431983 432988 439003 442007 448011 452014 453017 454022 453027 449031 446032 443035 443038 446041 451043 457046 461049 467055 475065 483077 488086 491094 493099 497102 500102 503101 504092 504086 503080 500064 501053 503049 510037 514031 516021 516014 518007 522006 528000 530000 0.01 468115 465110 464104 461101 459101 456097 453093 450090 445092 442096 442100 442105 444109 446113 452115 455113 461114 464114 468115 0.01 358751 357748 356747 354748 351750 349752 349753 347756 347757 348760 349760 351759 353757 354757 356755 358752 358751 0.01 283950 281940 279932 273927 267923 261921 253919 249921 245923 241928 240933 240938 241948 240955 241966 242973 242978 243980 249986 254990 266997 272994 274991 274986 276967 279962 283953 283950 0.25 536211 537202 536196 533190 530184 524175 522172 516170 511167 505164 502163 499166 497167 495171 499177 506187 511195 519205 524213 529217 533215 536211 0.25 517272 519262 518252 515246 513242 512237 509231 504225 502219 497213 495213 490216 490222 491233 490235 484240 480244 478252 478260 479270 482275 490277 496281 500286 503288 507289 511284 512280 514276 517272 0.25 464759 461758 459758 458758 457759 456761 455764 457768 458769 461770 464766 465763 465759 464759 0.25 466795 465790 464788 461789 460789 458791 456795 456796 455801 455802 454805 454810 457811 460810 463808 463805 464803 465800 466797 466795 0.25 441755 441754 438756 438757 437762 440763 442759 442757 441755 0.25 426794 424793 422796 421801 423801 424800 425796 426794 0.25 271955 271949 269943 264935 257930 255929 249929 247932 245939 245948 245959 246968 247971 250976 256980 261978 264975 267968 270958 271955 0.50 533210 535206 534200 531195 529191 526187 523182 521180 518178 516176 510171 507171 504174 507179 509184 514190 516195 519200 522203 524207 527210 530212 533210 0.50 516267 517262 515253 510244 508238 506234 498223 496221 493226 495240 493244 490242 487242 485245 485250 485255 487260 494270 501280 504283 506285 509283 509274 515272 516267 0.50 267956 266947 264941 259936 255934 250935 248941 248950 249959 251968 255973 258972 262966 265961 267956 1.00 514266 514262 514261 512256 510250 510249 507245 507244 505242 503238 502237 500236 499237 499238 502242 502243 504247 504248 506252 507254 507259 508261 509264 510265 513268 514266 1.00 505277 505275 505272 504267 503266 501263 500260 499259 496256 494254 494253 493253 492257 493259 495263 495264 498268 498269 500272 502276 505278 505277 1.00 258948 258945 257942 256941 254943 253946 252949 253952 254955 256955 257955 257951 258949 258948 24HR QP VT 05/00Z 0.01 499705 495691 491683 488679 484673 480671 477671 469678 466680 464679 464674 463671 459668 454658 447648 443643 439640 435639 432639 428642 419649 416657 415668 416672 418678 422687 428693 434697 438699 441704 441710 439712 438717 438719 440725 437730 436732 440731 441734 439739 436746 432756 430764 431774 434788 436795 436802 430809 429813 430819 432822 435823 443826 446827 450832 450834 449841 447844 443847 435851 424853 420856 417861 418868 422871 425871 433873 438871 443869 449863 452861 455861 457865 461873 466885 467897 467909 468924 472938 476949 480959 481964 484967 490974 495978 502983 505985 507982 511975 515971 517967 520962 522957 526947 528935 529926 529917 528908 524896 515876 512868 514860 517848 519839 520830 519823 520814 521803 521791 518775 517765 514757 509743 507739 503736 500733 498729 498725 500714 499705 0.01 539207 540202 539197 538191 537188 535184 531179 529169 523162 521157 518153 506142 502137 499130 497126 493124 484123 475122 469119 466122 465126 462128 457127 451130 450134 451137 454141 454147 453151 450151 445150 442147 437146 435148 434153 435156 438161 439165 438171 436174 432176 427179 424182 424188 426191 434197 439204 439207 435206 430203 426201 422201 418199 416202 416208 420212 420215 416214 411213 409215 406222 401230 396234 386242 381248 376254 374260 373265 374273 377281 378290 380293 383295 389297 393296 396299 399305 403308 408309 414308 420305 427300 431297 435295 437299 439302 443305 447305 453303 458296 467279 470278 474281 481284 488288 494290 501289 507286 510281 513276 515272 516267 518257 516248 513238 513227 504208 506205 510206 514209 520216 524220 529221 535216 539207 0.01 480195 480191 479189 477185 476185 473184 471184 470184 467186 466187 464188 461190 460190 458192 457194 457198 457199 460199 463202 466202 467200 469198 471197 472196 475195 478195 480195 0.01 342185 345178 345171 344168 339164 333163 331162 325160 320159 316160 316164 322167 324168 330171 335173 337177 337180 342185 342185 0.01 343106 344099 343096 341089 339085 335082 333080 327078 326085 327088 330092 333095 336099 338103 340107 343106 0.01 333940 332933 331926 326914 320906 316900 310898 307898 302901 298902 294906 290911 287915 281923 278926 273927 266930 262932 258936 257943 257955 250973 249980 252984 260990 272003 275007 276014 276019 274026 273035 269039 265041 261045 259050 258055 258062 259066 262069 266072 271075 277078 281080 285081 291084 297084 302082 304076 305068 310066 316066 320064 323058 321047 318033 317027 316019 317013 319006 331961 333949 333940 0.25 518191 520186 520182 518175 517166 514161 511159 508160 504154 501149 497145 490134 484131 478130 473132 474137 475139 481141 483147 466157 466162 465165 462170 456172 451175 449179 443180 441181 439184 440188 443190 449191 454188 462182 466179 472176 474176 476177 479182 499193 502190 506189 509191 518191 0.25 501238 501226 500215 498208 496203 493199 485200 478202 472206 465208 460208 453213 447214 440215 432215 427218 424221 424224 424228 423231 416231 411234 400245 396249 392255 390262 393267 398268 411277 416282 420285 425283 446269 456262 463259 469256 482253 487253 489251 491246 490240 487234 488232 492233 496237 501238 0.25 494863 493857 492850 489842 484834 479829 473824 468826 465831 463837 461841 461846 463850 466853 471859 475864 480869 482873 486874 490873 493868 494863 0.25 316930 316923 314916 309913 306913 302915 295923 293929 291935 290939 287943 281945 277951 273958 268962 265965 267968 273968 281961 284961 286963 288968 289982 290996 291004 293008 296012 299012 302011 304007 305001 308988 312977 315964 316952 317939 316930 0.25 296070 291064 289059 286056 280052 274054 269057 266059 264062 266066 269069 273072 279075 285076 292075 296070 0.50 509179 507169 502163 498161 493161 487156 484154 479154 474159 471167 471171 475172 479174 481177 484181 488181 494180 499182 506180 509179 0.50 498227 497222 494213 490207 483205 471210 466211 461212 455214 449216 440218 433232 428235 422236 416235 411238 405248 401253 399256 400258 406262 413262 418263 425263 435258 440258 445256 456253 467248 473247 479248 483246 483241 480234 477229 476224 478222 480221 483222 488224 495228 498227 0.50 287072 288068 286065 285065 283065 280065 277064 275065 275066 274068 275069 277071 278072 280072 283073 286072 287072 1.00 485218 484217 484214 482211 479210 476211 474215 475218 478218 481218 484219 485218 1.00 490170 487168 484168 483169 484170 486173 489171 490170 1.00 476233 478236 476239 474236 476233 1.00 464238 464237 462233 461233 458232 455233 452233 450234 449235 446237 442240 445243 448244 450245 453244 454244 457243 460241 463239 464238 1.00 460224 462220 460218 457218 455218 457222 459224 460224 460224 1.00 429244 427242 424241 421241 420241 421242 424244 426245 429244 $$