ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/09/08 0805Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0745Z  HANNA
.
LOCATION...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...SGF...TSA...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...
.
EVENT...CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER N OK
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS CONVECTION
HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF CONFLUENT 85H FLOW.  SYNOPTIC
DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS
FROM NE KS INTO SE CO AND ALSO BY FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
FROM SATELLITE DERIVED 80KT JET STREAK OVER THE LAKES REGION.
.
PROFILER AND LOCAL AREA VWPS SHOW THAT MODEST 20KT SW 85H FLOW IS
POINTED INTO THE BACK END OF DEVELOPING COMPLEX AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT ON THE UPWIND PORTION OF MCS WITH DOWNSTREAM
TRAINING OVER N OK.  ON THE STORM SCALE, IR IMAGERY SHOWS A FRAGMENTED
LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER N OK.  THE MOST IMPRESSIVE AREA OF
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
ASSOCIATED OVERSHOOTING TOP NOW MOVING INTO S CRAIG COUNTY.  ADDITIONALLY,
A SECOND AREA OF RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING WITH ASSOCIATED OVERSHOOTING TOP
WAS LOCATED OVER NOBLE COUNTY.  WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR
WITH BOTH OF THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION.  BELIEVE THAT RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON THE LARGER SCALE AS CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE
TO COOL ALONG WITH IMPENDING CONVECTIVE MERGERS FROM THE VIC OF WWR
TO GMJ.  WITH THAT IN MIND WOULD EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO FALL ALONG
AN APPROXIMATE AXIS FROM WWR/END TO GMJ, WHERE LOCAL TOTALS COULD POSSIBLY
RANGE BETWEEN 1-3" OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3689 9478 3655 9445 3616 9468 3593 9587 3595 9799 3601
9934 3661 9919 3687 9758
.
NNNN