####018002658#### TXUS20 KNES 142225 SPENES ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/14/08 2224Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2215Z KUSSELSON NOAA AMSU:1855Z DMSP SSMI:1230Z SSMI/S:1337Z . LOCATION...SE VIRGINIA...E AND C NORTH CAROLINA... LOCATION...SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA... . ATTN WFOS...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... ATTN WFOS...TAE... ATTN RFCS...MARFC...SERFC... . EVENT...FRAGMENTED MOIST BOUNDARIES TRYING TO COME TOGETHER... WILL BE KEY TO ANY TRAINING HVY RAIN CELLS REACH FF POTENTIAL THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT... . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES SOUNDER AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOWING VARIOUS MOIST PW BOUNDARIES FROM GULF OF MEXICO TO SE VA/S DELMARVA. MOST ACTIVE MOIST BOUNDARY JUST INLAND FROM SE US COAST FROM N CENTRAL FL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THRU E NC INTO SE VA. LOTS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY BOTH EMBEDDED IN DEEP MOIST FLOW THAT IS OVER 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND MAIN TROUGH/SHORT WAVE STILL OUT TO THE SW ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THAT COULD SET UP EITHER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HVY RAIN BURSTS THAT COULD LEAD TO FF POTENTIAL OR A SHORTER PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HVY RAIN BURSTS WHERE FF THREAT COULD POSSIBLY INCR RAPIDLY THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT (MOST LIKE FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT). RIGHT NOW LOOKING AT A SW TO NE ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME TRAINING CENTRAL TO INTERIOR S CENTRAL GA TO W CENTRAL SC THAT COULD EXPAND AND INCR FF THREAT IN SC IN THE 02 TO 07Z TIME FRAME. WON'T TAKE MUCH AS PW MOIST BOUNDARIES MERGE AND MAX PW VALUES CLOSE TO 2.0" OR 200 TO 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND ANY SHORT WAVE COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF IGNITING CONVECTION THAT CAN PRODUCE 2.0"PLUS RAIN RATES IN AN HR. PRETTY CONFIDENT OF NO PROBLEMS IN SE VA THRU E NC AT LEAST THRU 00Z...BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THAT AREA AS SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN MOIST FLOW AND UPPER TROF AND SHORT WAVES LIFTING N/NE OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT BEGIN TO ACT MORE THAT DEEP MOISTURE FOR INCRD FF THREAT IN THE 00-06Z AND 03 TO 09Z TIME PERIODS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEND ADDITIONAL MESSAGES WHEN FOCUS OF EXCESSIVE HVY RAINS BECOMES CLEARER. SEE ANALYSIS GRAPHIC ON HOME PAGE AT ADDRESS BELOW... . SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST. ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES: HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/ ...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/ . LAT...LON 3747 7537 3614 7539 3345 7986 3135 8233 3088 8337 3200 8403 3643 7806 . NNNN