June 2002

Production Briefs

2002/03 Production Briefs

 World:  Oilseed Production Forecast to Rise Despite Lower U.S. Output

World total oilseed production for 2002/03 is forecast at 332 million tons, up 8 million or 2 percent from 2001/02.  The United States is expected to go against trend and decline by 1.7 million tons, to 88.2 million.  Lower loan rates and changing public farm policies are expected to favor grain crops relative to soybeans.  Total foreign output is forecast at 243.4 million tons, up 9.2 million or 4 percent from 2001/02.  Expansion of soybean production in South America is expected to contribute to the larger world output as will palm kernel production in Southeast Asia.  Sunflowerseed production is expected to rebound from the relatively low levels of 2001/02, while foreign cottonseed output is expected to decline. 

China: Wheat Crop Lower Due to Unfavorable Weather

A combination of drought in the north and excessive rainfall in the south had a negative affect on China’s 2002/03 wheat crop.  Production is estimated at 94.0 million tons, down 2 million or 2 percent last month and equal to last year’s drought-affected crop. China will produce about 87.0 million tons of winter wheat and 7.0 million tons of spring wheat.  The estimated yield of 3.76 tons per hectare is below the 5-year average and down 8 percent from the record yield of 4.1 tons per hectare set in 1997/98.  The estimated area of 25.0 million hectares is down slightly from last year, based on official National Bureau of Statistics planting intentions.

The winter wheat crop was in generally good condition in April as it approached the heading stage.  Early spring drought depleted soil moisture and stressed the crop in the northern part of the North China Plain, but moisture conditions in the southern plains and Yangtze Basin were more favorable.  Unusually cool and wet weather dominated eastern China from mid-April through mid-May and caused development delays, pest and disease outbreaks, and quality problems, especially in the Yangtze River Basin and southern plains.  In the Yellow River Basin, the May rainfall provided beneficial moisture for the reproducing/filling winter wheat crop but was not enough to erase the drought.  Very hot (90 - 101 F.) and dry weather returned to eastern China after May 15.  The drier weather favored wheat maturing/harvesting in southern areas but stressed immature wheat in the north.  The harvest is now in full swing and will be completed by the end of June. 

Spring wheat accounts for about 9-10 percent of total wheat production.  Planting and germination benefited from timely rain, but conditions have become unfavorably dry in parts of the Northeast, and more rain is needed to support normal development.

France: Beneficial Growing Conditions Raise EU Wheat Production Estimate

France’s 2002/03 total wheat crop is estimated at 38.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from the May estimate of 38.0 million. Overall EU wheat production is now forecast at 107.5 million tons, up 15.7 million from last year.  The increase is due to excellent growing conditions that should translate into higher yields throughout France’s wheat growing regions.  France is the EU’s largest wheat producer, but growing conditions have also been favorable in other major EU producers:  Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain.  Harvest will begin in late June in southern Europe and continue through August in the north.  Wet weather during harvest could create problems for this crop, but growing conditions thus far have been generally excellent.

Romania: Drought Reduces Wheat and Corn Production for 2001/02 and 2002/03

Romania’s 2001/02 wheat crop was revised down by 1.2 million tons or 15 percent to 6.7 million, reflecting recent information gathered from Romanian sources.  Romanian wheat production for 2002/03 is estimated at 5.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 9 percent from last month, and off 1.7 million or 25 percent from last year’s newly revised crop estimate.

Romania’s 2001/02 corn crop also was revised down, by 1.8 million tons.  Last season’s poor harvest was the result of severe drought occurring during the 2001/02 summer season (after the wheat harvest), with the most destruction occurring in the southern and south-eastern areas of the country.  Romanian corn production for 2002/03 was estimated at 8.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 6 percent from last month.  This month’s adjustment to the old crop creates a year-to-year increase of 1.0 million tons for 2002/03.

Hungary: Drought Reduces Wheat and Corn Production

Hungary’s wheat production in 2002/03  is estimated at 4.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 11 percent from last month and down 23 percent or 1.2 million tons from last season’s bumper crop of 5.2 million.   The wheat crop grew under a long period of dryness, which has hurt yield prospects.  Hungary’s wheat harvest averages 4.4 million tons.

Hungary’s corn production in 2002/03 is estimated at 6.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 7 percent from last month, and down 1.1 million from last year’s crop.  Area is estimated at 1.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month.  Yield is forecast lower due to an extended period of dryness.

Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Decrease

The 2002/03 wheat crop is forecast at 23.0 million tons, down 1.5 million or 6 percent from last month, and down 1.0 million or 4 percent from last year.  Forecast area is reduced to 12.3 million hectares, 0.5 million or 4 percent lower than last month and 0.7 million or 5 percent below last year.  Wheat growing areas of Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria, have received significantly below-normal precipitation during April and May.  Many growers are waiting for autumn rains to begin planting.  The optimal planting window will pass later in June; however, the southern areas can be planted as late as July.

 
2001/02 Production Briefs

Brazil: Record Soybean Acreage Forecast

Brazil’s 2001/02 soybean crop remains unchanged this month and is currently estimated at a record 43.5 million tons.  Brazil’s official statistics service, IBGE, released new acreage estimates based on April crop surveys, which indicate an even larger expansion of soybean acreage occurred in 2001/02 than previously believed. IBGE reported that soybean acreage increased over 2.4 million hectares this year, with one-third of that total occurring in Mato Grosso alone.  Total national soybean area is currently estimated at a record 16.4 million hectares, up 0.5 million from last month, and up 2.4 million or 17 percent from last year’s record level.

Southern Africa – Lower Corn Production Estimated

This month, 2001/02 corn production estimates for several southern African countries were revised downward in response to new information about planted area and the effect of this season’s unfavorable weather.  Stocks levels are very low and grain prices have risen dramatically in the affected countries.  Southern Africa will struggle to provide adequate grain to vulnerable people in the region, including refugees, urban workers, displaced farm workers, and subsistence farmers.

Zimbabwe’s 2001/02 corn crop is estimated at just 500,000 tons, down 66 percent from the poor crop a year earlier and the lowest output since 1991/92.  Many factors contributed to Zimbabwe’s catastrophic harvest this year:  seasonal rainfall was down by 75 percent in many crop areas, agricultural inputs (fertilizer, fuel, irrigation water) were very costly or unavailable, high-yielding

Commercial farmland was taken out of production, and serious economic and political problems disrupted the agricultural sector.  Corn production in Zambia is estimated at 620,000 tons in 2001/02, down 23 percent from a year earlier and the smallest crop since 1997/98.  Zambia has suffered from severe drought for three consecutive years.  Corn production elsewhere in Southern Africa has also suffered in 2001/02 and was revised downward this month.  In Malawi, estimated corn production is down year-to-year by 10 percent; Swaziland, down 7 percent; Lesotho, down 40 percent and Botswana down 15 percent. 

In contrast, South Africa’s 2001/02 corn production increased by 17 percent to an estimated 8.8 million tons due to generally favorable weather and increased area.  However, this amount will not be sufficient to meet the corn shortfall in the region.

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