FXUS63 KLSX 050923
AFDSTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON 
ACROSS THE CWFA...AND INDEED A DRY EVENING.  ATMOSPHERE DOESN'T 
REALLY MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT EVEN OUT 
WEST IN MY OPINION...EVEN THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME ISENTROPIC 
LIFT OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE THEN.  
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASING POPS 
AFTER THAT.  FRIDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE 
AND LOWER LEVEL TROF.  ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE 
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND P-DEFS ARE ONLY A COUPLE OF MILLIBARS AT 
MOST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER DURING THE DAY...SO 
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE.  DON'T FEEL STRONGLY ENOUGH AT 
THIS TIME TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT IF THE MODELS KEEP THIS 
TREND GOING IT MAY BE GOOD TO NUDGE THE POPS UP A CAT.

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY QUIET...BUT THE GFS AND THE ETA 
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT 500MB LOW IN THE 
SERIES WHICH HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE MID-WEST.  THIS NEXT LOW WHICH 
DIVES OUT OF CANADA IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER THAN THE LAST 
TWO...AND IT'LL HELP TO DEVELOP A GOOD SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL DRAG A 
COLD FRONT THROUGH MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY...IF YOU BELIEVE 
THE GFS THAT IS.  THE ETA...WHILE JUST AS STRONG WITH THE 500MB 
LOW...IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AT VARIOUS 
LEVELS.  THE ETA HAS FROPA OCCURRING AT KSTL SOMETIME AROUND 06Z 
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS STILL DEVELOPING THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN 
KANSAS AT THAT TIME.  THE GFS HAS FROPA AT KSTL DURING THE AFTERNOON 
ON SUNDAY.  HPC HAS RECOMMENDED THE GFS OVER THE ETA FOR THIS SYSTEM 
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE ETA HAS ONLY HAD ONE RUN TO CHEW ON 
THIS SYSTEM.  THE GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM 
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO I FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY.

THANKS FOR THE CHIT-CHAT THIS MORNING CONCERNING TONIGHT'S POPS SGF!

.STL...NONE

CARNEY