FORECAST Research and Development

Adams, J. L., D. J. Stensrud, 2005: Impact of tropical easterly waves on gulf surges during the North American Monsoon. Sixth Conference on Coastal Meteorology, San Diego, CA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 5.7.

Adams, J. L., D. J. Stensrud, 2007: Impact of tropical easterly waves on the North American monsoon. Journal of Climate, 20, 1219-1238.

The North American monsoon (NAM) is a prominent summertime feature over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States. It is characterized by a distinct shift in midlevel winds from westerly to easterly as well as a sharp, marked increase in rainfall. This maximum in rainfall accounts for 60%–80% of the annual precipitation in northwestern Mexico and nearly 40% of the yearly rainfall over the southwestern United States. Gulf surges, or coastally trapped disturbances that occur over the Gulf of California, are important mechanisms in supplying the necessary moisture for the monsoon and are hypothesized in previous studies to be initiated by the passage of a tropical easterly wave (TEW). Since the actual number of TEWs varies from year to year, it is possible that TEWs are responsible for producing some of the interannual variability in the moisture flux and rainfall seen in the NAM.

To explore the impact of TEWs on the NAM, four 1-month periods are chosen for study that represent a reasonable variability in TEW activity. Two continuous month-long simulations are produced for each of the selected months using the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model. One simulation is a control run that uses the complete boundary condition data, whereas a harmonic analysis is used to remove TEWs with periods of approximately 3.5 to 7.5 days from the model boundary conditions in the second simulation. These simulations with and without TEWs in the boundary conditions are compared to determine the impact of the waves on the NAM. Fields such as meridional moisture flux, rainfall totals, and surge occurrences are examined to define similarities and differences between the model runs. Results suggest that the removal of TEWs not only reduces the strength of gulf surges, but also rearranges rainfall over the monsoon region. Results further suggest that TEWs influence rainfall over the Southern Plains of the United States, with TEWs leading to less rainfall in this region. While these results are only suggestive, since rainfall is the most difficult model forecast parameter, it may be that TEWs alone can explain part of the inverse relationship between NAM and Southern Plains rainfall.

Anabor, V., D. J. Stensrud, O. L. L. De Moraes, 2008: Serial upstream-propagating mesoscale convective system events over southeastern South America. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 3087-3105.

Serial mesoscale convective system (MCS) events with lifetimes over 18 h and up to nearly 70 h are routinely observed over southeastern South America from infrared satellite imagery during the spring and summer. These events begin over the southern La Plata River basin, with individual convective systems generally moving eastward with the cloud-layer mean wind. However, an important and common subset of these serial MCS events shows individual MCSs moving to the east or southeast, yet the region of convective development as a whole shifts upstream to the north or northwest. Analyses of the composite mean environments from 10 of these upstream-propagating serial MCS events using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data events indicates that the synoptic conditions resemble those found in mesoscale convective complex environments over the United States. The serial MCS events form within an environment of strong low-level warm advection and strong moisture advection between the surface and 700 hPa from the Amazon region southward. One feature that appears to particularly influence the low-level flow pattern at early times is a strong surface anticyclone located just off the coast of Brazil. At upper-levels, the MCSs develop on the anticyclonic side of the entrance region to an upper-level jet. Mean soundings show that the atmosphere is moist from the surface to near 500 hPa, with values of convective available potential energy above 1200 J kg-1 at the time of system initiation. System dissipation and continued upstream propagation to the north and northwest occurs in tandem with a surface high pressure system that crosses the Andes Mountains from the west.

Anderson, C. J., R. W. Arritt, J. S. Kain, 2007: An alternative mass flux profile in the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization and its effect on seasonal precipitation.. J. Hydrometeor, 8, 1128-1140.

Baldwin, M. E., S. Lakshmivarahan, J. S. Kain, 2005: Development of an automated classification procedure for rainfall systems. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 844-862.

Baldwin, M. E., K. L. Elmore, 2005: Objective verification of high-resolution WRF forecasts during 2005 NSSL/SPC Spring Program. Preprints, 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction., Durham, NC, USA, American Meteorologocal Society, 11B.4. [Available from K. L. Elmore, National Severe Storms Laboratory, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Forecast output from several versions of the WRF model will be evaluated during the 2005 NSSL/SPC Spring Program. These include a ~4km grid-spacing version of the WRF-NMM run at NCEP, a ~4km version of WRF-ARW run at NCAR, and a ~2km version of WRF-ARW run by CAPS at PSC. This output will be evaluated subjectively in real-time by teams of operational forecasters and researchers (see Kain et al. 2005, 21st WAF/17th NWP conf). In addition, several objective verification techniques will be applied to these forecasts, in particular, predicted and observed composite radar reflectivities will be compared. Object-oriented techniques will be used to compare the forecast and observed characteristics of a variety of rainfall systems. Other statistical techniques will be applied in order to measure biases in the forecast fields, structure, etc. This paper will report on ongoing research related to meaningful, objective verification of forecasts that contain realistic, high-resolution detail.

Baldwin, M. E., J. S. Kain, 2006: Sensitivity of Several Performance Measures to Displacement Error, Bias, and Event Frequency. Weather and Forecasting, 21, 636-648.

The sensitivity of various accuracy measures to displacement error, bias, and event frequency is analyzed for a simple hypothetical forecasting situation. Each measure is found to be sensitive to displacement error and bias, but probability of detection and threat score do not change as a function of event frequency. On the other hand, equitable threat score, true skill statistic, and odds ratio skill score behave differently with changing event frequency. A newly devised measure, here called the bias-adjusted threat score, does not change with varying event frequency and is reletively insensitive to bias. Numerous plots are presented to allow users of these accuracy measures to make quantitative estimates of sensitivities that are relevant to their particular application.

Available online at ://http://available soon from AMS.

Banacos, P. C., D. M. Schultz, 2005: The use of moisture flux convergence in forecasting convective initiation: Historical and operational perspectives. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 351-366.

Moisture flux convergence (MFC) is a term in the conservation of water vapor equation and was first calculated in the 1950s and 1960s as a vertically integrated quantity to predict rainfall associated with synoptic-scale systems. Vertically integrated MFC was also incorporated into the Kuo cumulus parameterization scheme for the Tropics. MFC was eventually suggested for use in forecasting convective initiation in the midlatitudes in 1970, but practical MFC usage quickly evolved to include only surface data, owing to the higher spatial and temporal resolution of surface observations. Since then, surface MFC has been widely applied as a short-term (0-3 h) prognostic quantity for forecasting convective initiation, with an emphasis on determining the favorable spatial location(s) for such development. A scale analysis shows that surface MFC is directly proportional to the horizontal mass convergence field, allowing MFC to be highly effective in highlighting mesoscale boundaries between different air masses near the earth's surface that can be resolved by surface data and appropriate grid spacing in gridded analyses and numerical models. However, the effectiveness of boundaries in generating deep moist convection is influenced by many factors, including the depth of the vertical circulation along the boundary and the presence of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) near the boundary. Moreover, lower- and upper-tropospheric jets, frontogenesis, and other forcing mechanisms may produce horizontal mass convergence above the surface, providing the necessary lift to bring elevated parcels to their level of free convection without connection to the boundary layer. Case examples elucidate these points as a context for applying horizontal mass convergence for convective initiation. Because horizontal mass convergence is a more appropriate diagnostic in an ingredients-based methodology for forecasting convective initiation, its use is recommended over MFC.

Barnes, L. R., E. C. Gruntfest, M. H. Hayden, D. M. Schultz, C. Benight, 2007: False alarms and close calls: A conceptual model of warning accuracy. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 1140-1147.

Biggerstaff, M., L. Wicker, J. Guynes, C. Ziegler, J. Straka, E. Rasmussen, A. Doggett IV, L. Carey, J. Schroeder, C. Weiss, 2005: The Shared Mobile Atmospheric Research and Teaching Radar: A collaboration to enhance research and teaching. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, .

Biggerstaff, M. I., D. R. MacGorman, W. D. Rust, C. Ziegler, J. M. Straka, T. J. Schuur, G. Carrie, K. Kuhlman, E. Rasmussen, P. Krehbiel, W. Rison, T. Hamlin, 2005: The role of storm dynamics on cloud electrification: The 29 May 2004 Tornadic Supercell Observed During TELEX. Preprints, 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, 15R.1.

Biggerstaff, M. I., D. W. Burgess, G. D. Carrie, E. R. Mansell, L. J. Wicker, C. L. Ziegler, 2008: Storm-Scale Sampling Strategies for the Mobile C-Band Doppler Radars during VORTEX2. Extended Abstracts, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Savannah, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 5.2.

Brooks, H. E., 2006: A global view of severe thunderstorms: Estimating the current distribution and possible future changes. Preprints, Symposium on the Challenges of Severe Convective Storms, Atlanta, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, J4.2.

Brooks, H. E., A. R. Anderson, K. Riemann, I. Ebbers, H. Flachs, 2007: Climatological aspects of convective parameters from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. Atmospheric Research, 83, 294-305.

Annual cycles of convectively important atmospheric parameters have been computed for a variety of from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global reanalysis, using 7 years of reanalysis data. Regions in the central United States show stronger seasonality in combinations of thermodynamic parameters than found elsewhere in North America or Europe. As a result, there is a period of time in spring and early summer when climatological mean conditions are supportive of severe thunderstorms.
The annual cycles help in understanding the large-scale processes that lead to the combination of atmospheric ingredients necessary for strong convection. This, in turn, lays groundwork for possible changes in distribution of the environments associated with possible global climate change.

Available online at ://http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/papers/ECSS2004.pdf.

Brooks, H. E., 2007: Development and use of climatologies of convective weather. Atmospheic Convection: Research and Operational Forecasting Aspects, D. B. Gaiotti, R. Steinacker, F. Stel, Ed(s)., SpringerWienNew York, 123-132.

Estimates of the occurrence (“climatologies”) of convective phenomena in time, space, and intensity can be useful in a variety of contexts. They provide background for forecasters, and the risk management and meteorological research communities. In part, because of the different needs of those user groups, caution must be applied when developing and using climatologies, especially if the intended application is outside of the original intent of the developers.

Brooks, H. E., 2007: Environmental conditions associated with convective phenomena: Proximity soundings. Atmospheic Convection: Research and Operational Forecasting Aspects, D. B. Gaiotti, R. Steinacker, F. Stel, Ed(s)., SpringerWeinNewYork, 113-122.

An important tool in understanding the relationship between environments and observed severe thunderstorm events are vertical profiles of environmental conditions collected in the vicinity of the storms. These relationships can help in the future forecasting of weather. In this paper, the use and cautions associated with these so-called proximity soundings are discussed.

Brooks, H. E., 2007: Ingredients-based forecasting. Atmospheric Convection: Research and Operational Forecasting Aspects, D. B. Gaiotti, R. Steinacker, Ed(s)., SpringerWienNew York, 133-140.

Forecasting the weather can be thought of as a problem in extracting a small signal from a noisy background field. Much information is available to the forecaster, but, frequently, only a small amount of that information is of importance for solving the forecast problem(s) of the day. As a result, an approach to forecasting must maximize the efficiency of the process. An effective way, particularly for hazardous weather, is to identify the ingredients required to produce a particular weather event and then to focus on the processes that can affect the presence of those ingredients. This allows the forecaster to narrow the range of aspects of the observations and model guidance that are considered during the forecast shift and, it is hoped, identify crucial developments as they occur.

Brooks, H. E., 2007: Practical Aspects of Forecasting Severe Convection in the United States: Environmental Conditions and Initiation. Atmospheic Convection: Research and Operational Forecasting Aspects, D. B. Gaiotti, R. Steinacker, F. Stel, Ed(s)., SpringerWienNew York, 141-148.

The first stage of forecasting convective weather involves forecasting the evolution of conditions that are favorable for the development of storms and their probable initiation. The scale of the forecasts are typically on the order of 100 km or larger and the lead time between the forecast and storms is 1-48 hours. In the United States, procedures have evolved so that the Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has the responsibility for issuing these forecasts for the contiguous 48 states (the part of the US excluding Alaska and Hawaii.)

Brooks, H. E., 2007: Practical Aspects of Forecasting Severe Convection in the United States: Storm Evolution and Warning. Atmospheic Convection: Research and Operational Forecasting Aspects, D. B. Gaiotti, R. Steinacker, F. Stel, Ed(s)., SpringerWienNew York, 149-156.

In order to protect life and property, forecasts of severe convection are critical on short time and space scales (on the order of 1 hour or less and a few 10s of km or less). Accurate assessment of the environment and monitoring of high-resolution observational data, frequently focusing on radar-observed evolution, are essential in this process. In the United States, these short-term time and space scale forecasts are referred to as warnings and are prepared by local forecast offices of the National Weather Service, who have responsibility for forecasters on the order of 100,000 km2.

Brooks, H. E., C. A. Doswell III, D. Sutter, 2008: Low-Level Winds in Tornadoes and Potential Catastrophic Tornado Impacts in Urban Areas. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 87-90.

Brooks, H. E., N. Dotzek, 2008: The spatial distribution of severe convective storms and an analysis of their secular changes. Climate Extremes and Society, H. F. Diaz, Ed(s)., Cambridge University Press, 35-54.

Severe convective storms are responsible for billions of US dollars in damage each year around the world. They form an important part of the climate system by redistributing heat, moisture, and trace gases, as well as producing large quantities of precipitation.

Reporting of severe convection varies from country to country, however, so that determining their distribution from the reports alone is difficult, at best. Evidence does exist that the intensity of some events, particularly tornadoes, follows similar distributions in different locations, making it possible to build statistical models of occurrence. Remotely-sensed observations provide some insight, but the relationship between the observable parameters and the actual events of interest limits the quality of the estimate. Another approach is to use observations of the larger-scale environments.

As has been stated, the relationship between the observation and the event limits the estimate, but global coverage is possible. Time series of the favorable environments can also be developed from such data. In order to improve the estimates, the most pressing need is better observational data of events. Very few countries have formal systems for collection of severe thunderstorm reports. A new effort from a consortium of researchers in Europe to develop a continental-wide database offers the possibility of a significant improvement in data in that part of the world.

Brooks, H. E., 2008: Extreme Weather: Understanding the Science of Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Floods, Heat Waves, Snow Storms, Global Warming and Other Atmospheric Disturbances. EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 89, 258-258.

Extreme weather is of importance because of the threats it makes to life and property. At the same time, extreme weather is a great fascination for meteorologists as well as for the general public. The conditions and processes that lead to extreme weather—although governed by the same physical principles as “ordinary” weather—frequently are far from the average state of the atmosphere. Thus, explaining them in simple terms can be difficult. This book represents an effort to explain the development of extreme weather to the public.

Brown, R. A., B. A. Flickinger, E. Forren, D. M. Schultz, D. Sirmans, P. L. Spencer, V. T. Wood, C. L. Ziegler, 2005: Improved detection of severe storms using experimental fine-resolution WSR-88D measurements. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 3-14.

NSSL Outstanding Scientific Paper Award

Doppler velocity and reflectivity measurements from WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler) radars provide important input to forecasters as they prepare to issue short-term severe storm and tornado warnings. Current-resolution data collected by the radars have an azimuthal spacing of 1.0° and range spacing of 1.0 km for reflectivity and 0.25 km for Doppler velocity and spectrum width. To test the feasibility of improving data resolution, National Severe Storms Laboratory's test-bed WSR-88D (KOUN) collected data in severe thunderstorms using 0.5° azimuthal spacing and 0.25 km range spacing,resulting in eight times the resolution for reflectivity and twice the resolution for Doppler velocity and spectrum width. Displays of current-resolution WSR-88D Doppler velocity and reflectivity signatures in severe storms were compared with displays showing finer-resolution signatures. At all ranges, fine-resolution data provided better depiction of severe storm characteristics. Eighty-five percent of mean rotational velocities derived from fine-resolution mesocyclone signatures were stronger than velocities derived from current-resolution signatures. Likewise, about 85% of Doppler velocity differences across tornado and tornadic vortex signatures were stronger than values derived from current-resolution data. In addition, low-altitude boundaries were more readily detected using fine-resolution reflectivity data. At ranges greater than 100 km, fine-resolution reflectivity displays revealed severe storm signatures, such as bounded weak echo regions and hook echoes, which were not readily apparent on current-resolution displays. Thus, the primary advantage of fine-resolution measurements over current-resolution measurements is the ability to detect stronger reflectivity and Doppler velocity signatures at greater ranges from a WSR-88D.

Brown, R. A., J. M. Lewis, 2005: Path to NEXRAD: Doppler radar development at the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 1459-1470.

In this historical paper, we trace the scientific- and engineering-based steps at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and in the larger weather radar community that led to the development of NSSL's first 10-cm wavelength pulsed Doppler radar. This radar was the prototype for the current NEXRAD (NEXt generation weather RADar) or WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler) Network.

We track events, both political and scientific, that led to the establishment of NSSL in 1964. The vision of NSSL's first director, Edwin Kessler, is reconstructed through access to historical documents and oral history. This vision included the development of Doppler radar where research was to be meshed with the operational needs of the U.S. Weather Bureau and its successor the National Weather Service.

Realization of the vision came through steps that were often fitful, where complications arose due to personnel concerns, and where there were always financial concerns. The historical research indicates that: (1) the engineering prowess and mentorship of Roger Lhermitte was at the heart of Doppler radar development at NSSL; (2) key decisions by Kessler in the wake of Lhermitte's sudden departure in 1967 proved crucial to the ultimate success of the project; (3) research results indicated that Doppler velocity signatures of mesocyclones are a precursor of damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes; and (4) results from field testing of the Doppler-derived products during the 1977-1979 Joint Doppler Operational Project -- especially the noticeable increase in the verification of tornado warnings and an associated marked decrease in false alarms -- led to the government decision to establish the NEXRAD network.

Bruning, E., W. D. Rust, D. MacGorman, T. Schuur, J. Straka, P. Krehbiel, W. Rison, T. Hamlin, 2005: Polarimetric radar and electrical structure of a multicell storm. Preprints, 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, P14R.9.

Bruning, E. C., W. D. Rust, T. J. Schuur, D. R. MacGorman, P. R. Krehbiel, W. Rison, 2007: Electrical and Polarimetric Radar Observations of a Multicell Storm in TELEX. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 2525-2544.

On 28-29 June 2004 a multicellular thunderstorm west of Oklahoma City was probed as part of the Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning Experiment (TELEX) field program. This study makes use of radar observations from the KOUN polarimetric WSR-88D, threedimensional lightning mapping data from the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), and balloon-borne vector electric field meter (EFM) measurements. The storm had a low flash rate (30 flashes in 40 min). Four charge regions were inferred from a combination of LMA and EFM data. Lower positive charge near 4 km and mid-level negative charge from 4.5–6 km MSL (0 to -6.5°C) were generated in and adjacent to a vigorous updraft pulse. Further mid-level negative charge from 4.5–6 km MSL and upper positive charge from 6–8 km (-6.5 to -19°C) were generated later in quantity sufficient to initiate lightning as the updraft decayed. A negative screening layer was present near storm top (8.5 km MSL, -25°C). Initial lightning flashes were between lower positive and mid-level negative charge and started occurring shortly after a cell began lofting hydrometeors into the mixed phase region, where graupel was formed. A leader from the storm's first flash avoided a region where polarimetric radar suggested wet growth and the resultant absence of non-inductive charging of those hydrometeors. Initiation locations of later flashes that propagated into upper positive charge tracked the descending location of a polarimetric signature of graupel. As the storm decayed, electric fields greater than 160 kV m-1 exceeded the minimum threshold for lightning initiation suggested by the hypothesized runaway breakdown process at 5.5 km MSL, but lightning did not occur. The small spatial extent (≈100 m) of the large electric field may not have been sufficient to allow runaway breakdown to fully develop and initiate lightning.

Bruning, E., W. D. Rust, D. R. MacGorman, M. I. Biggerstaff, P. Krehbiel, 2008: Lightning mapping data as a tool for assessing storm structure and evolution. Proc. 3rd Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, AMS Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA, New Orleans, LA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 8.1A.

Bruning, E. C., W. D. Rust, D. R. MacGorman, T. J. Schuur, P. R. Krehbiel, W. Rison, 2007: Temporal and Spatial Structure of Storm Charge and Kinematics in the 26 May 2004 Supercell Storm During TELEX. Preprints, 13th International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, Beijing, China, International Commission on Atmospheric Electricity, 229-232. [Available from W. D. Rust, National Severe Storms Laboratory, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Buban, M. S., C. L. Ziegler, E. N. Rasmussen, Y. P. Richardson, 2007: The Dryline on 22 May 2002 during IHOP: Ground-Radar and In Situ Data Analyses of the Dryline and Boundary Layer Evolution. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 2473-2505.

On the afternoon and evening of 22 May 2002, high-resolution observations of the boundary layer (BL) and a dryline were obtained in the eastern Oklahoma and Texas panhandles during the International H2O Project. Using overdetermined multiple-Doppler radar syntheses in concert with a Lagrangian analysis of water vapor and temperature fields, the 3D kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the dryline and surrounding BL have been analyzed over a nearly 2-h period. The dryline is resolved as a strong (2–4 g/kg/km) gradient of water vapor mixing ratio that resides in a nearly north–south-oriented zone of convergence. Maintained through frontogenesis, the dryline is also located within a gradient of virtual potential temperature, which induces a persistent, solenoidally forced secondary circulation. Initially quasi-stationary, the dryline retrogrades to the west during early evening and displays complicated substructures including small wavelike perturbations that travel from south to north at nearly the speed of the mean BL flow. A second, minor dryline has similar characteristics to the first, but has weaker gradients and circulations. The BL adjacent to the dryline exhibits complicated structures, consisting of combinations of open cells, horizontal convective rolls, and transverse rolls. Strong convergence and vertical motion at the dryline act to lift moisture, and high-based cumulus clouds are observed in the analysis domain. Although the top of the analysis domain is below the lifted condensation level height, vertical extrapolation of the moisture fields generally agrees with cloud locations. Mesoscale vortices that move along the dryline induce a transient eastward dryline motion due to the eastward advection of dry air following misocyclone passage. Refractivity-based moisture and differential reflectivity analyses are used to help interpret the Lagrangian analyses.

Buban, M., C. L. Ziegler, E. N. Rasmussen, Y. Richardson, 2005: The structure and evolution of the dryline and surrounding boundary layer on 22 May 2002 during IHOP. Preprints, 11th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Albuquerque, NM, USA, AMS, J6J.3.

Buban, M., C. Ziegler, Y. Richardson, 2008: Numerical simulations of the dryline and surrounding boundary layer on 22 May 2002 during IHOP. Extended Abstracts, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Savannah, GA, USA, AMS, 18.4.

On the afternoon and evening of 22 May 2002, high-resolution data of the dryline and surrounding boundary layer (BL) were collected in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles as part of the International H2O Project. Using over-determined multiple Doppler radar syntheses in concert with an innovative Lagrangian analysis technique, the 3-D kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the dryline and surrounding BL have been obtained over nearly a 2-hour period. A past study utilizing these analysis tools has delineated the 22 May dryline as a strong gradient of water vapor mixing ratio embedded in a zone of multi-Doppler radar-derived convergence. Misocyclones are observed to propagate from south to north along the dryline. The BL on both sides of the dryline exhibits complicated structures such as horizontal convective rolls, transverse rolls, and open convective cells.

In the present study, the time-varying radar and Lagrangian analyses have been used as initial and time-dependent lateral inflow boundary conditions to run high-resolution simulations of the dryline and BL. Simulations are conducted with the COllaborative Model for Multiscale Atmospheric Simulation (COMMAS), a 3-dimensional non-hydrostatic community cloud model which includes both short- and long-wave radiation, a force-restore surface physics parameterization, and a cloud microphysics parameterization. The simulations reproduce a nearly north-south oriented dryline with horizontal moisture and temperature gradients similar to observed values, as well as misocyclones, horizontal convective rolls, transverse rolls, and open convective cells. These simulated BL features are similar to analogous structures manifested in the observations and the Lagrangian analyses, although the modeled features are typically of higher spatial and temporal resolutions and may have larger amplitudes than the equivalent observed features. The simulated BL features are internally consistent with the model dynamics, with the high spatial and temporal resolution potentially permitting a better understanding of their evolution processes.

A feature of special interest are the misocyclones which develop and propagate northward along the dryline. Apparently forced in the simulations via longer wavelength undulations in the momentum and thermodynamic fields that are introduced at the lateral inflow boundaries, these perturbations collapse in scale and amplify into intense misovortices as they move downstream. The misocyclones act to modulate the moisture fields along the dryline, bringing larger moisture values westward ahead of and drier air eastward behind the misocyclone relative to its motion. The vertical motion within the deeper moist layer north of the misocyclone enhances simulated cumulus formation along and north of the axis of rotation.

The model simulations are compared to observations to qualitatively evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the Lagrangian analyses. Aspects of the dryline circulation and other BL features are discussed along with their potential role in the convection initiation process.

Bukovsky, M. S., J. S. Kain, M. E. Baldwin, 2005: Bowing convective systems in a popular operational model: Are they for real. Preprints, 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington, DC, USA, American Meteorological Society, 2A.1.

Bukovsky, M. S., J. S. Kain, M. E. Baldwin, 2006: Bowing Convective Systems in a Popular Operational Model: Are They for Real?. Weather and Forecasting, 21, 307-324.

Bowing, propagating precipitation features that sometimes appear in NCEP's North American Mesoscale model (NAM; formerly called the Eta Model) forecasts are examined. These features are shown to be associated with an unusual convective heating profile generated by the Betts–Miller–Janji convective parameterization in certain environments. A key component of this profile is a deep layer of cooling in the lower to middle troposphere. This strong cooling tendency induces circulations that favor expansion of parameterized convective activity into nearby grid columns, which can lead to growing, self-perpetuating mesoscale systems under certain conditions. The propagation characteristics of these systems are examined and three contributing mechanisms of propagation are identified. These include a mesoscale downdraft induced by the deep lower-to-middle tropospheric cooling, a convectively induced buoyancy bore, and a boundary layer cold pool that is indirectly produced by the convective scheme in this environment. Each of these mechanisms destabilizes the adjacent atmosphere and decreases convective inhibition in nearby grid columns, promoting new convective development, expansion, and propagation of the larger system. These systems appear to show a poor correspondence with observations of bow echoes on time and space scales that are relevant for regional weather prediction, but they may provide important clues about the propagation mechanisms of real convective systems.

Case, J. L., S. R. Dembek, J. S. Kain, S. V. Kumar, T. Matsui, J. J. Shi, W. M. LaPenta, W. K. Tao, 2008: A sensitivity study of the operational NSSL WRF using unique NASA assets. Preprints, 9th Annual WRF Users' Workshop, Boulder, CO, USA, NCAR, P9.4.

Available online at ://http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/workshops/WS2008/abstracts/P9-04.pdf.

Cheong, B., R. Palmer, C. Curtis, K. Hondl, P. Heinselman, D. Zrnic, D. Forsyth, R. Murnan, R. Reed, R. Vogt, M. Foster, 2007: Real-time implementation of refractivity retrieval: Partnership between the University of Oklahoma, National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the Radar Operations Center. Preprints, 33rd Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems, San Antonio, TX, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, P8B.8.

High-resolution, near-surface refractivity measurements have the potential of becoming an important tool for operational forecasting and general scientific studies. Access to measured refractivity fields with high spatial and temporal resolution near the surface opens a new paradigm for understanding the convective processes within the boundary layer. It has been shown via advanced physical models that surface refractivity plays an important role in con vective processes and, therefore, is expected to be valuable for forecasting of the initiation and intensity of convective precipitation. For this project, the refractivity field is retrieved remotely using S-band radars by measuring the returned phase from ground clutter. Pioneering work of Fabry et. al. [J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 14, 978-987, 1997] has demonstrated the usefulness of this technique. By adopting this refractivity retrieval concept, an independent real-time software platform has been developed. The software was written with a modular design for portability and will be tested during the spring 2007 storm season on two radars in Oklahoma. Both the National Weather Radar Testbed (Phased Array), maintained by the National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL), and the WSR-88D weather radar near Oklahoma City (KTLX), supported by the Radar Operations Center (ROC), will be used for this study. Using the raw Level-I time series data from the radars, the modular software platform will be used to process the data in real-time for refractivity fields, which will be sent to the Norman Weather Forecast Office (WFO) for evaluation. Working closely with the WFO forecasters, qualitative assessment procedures will be followed to evaluate the usefulness of the refractivity fields for operational forecasting.

Cohen, R. A., D. M. Schultz, 2005: Contraction rate and its relationship to frontogenesis, the Lyapunov exponent, fluid trapping, and airstream boundaries. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 1353-1369.

Cohen, A. E., M. C. Coniglio, S. F. Corfidi, S. J. Corfidi, 2006: Discrimination among non-severe, severe, and derecho-producing mesoscale convective system environments. Extended Abstracts, Severe Local Storms Symposium, 86th Amer. Meteor. Soc. Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, P1.15. [Available from National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd, Norman, OK, USA, 73071.]

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/103614.pdf.

Cohen, R. A., D. M. Schultz, 2006: Reply. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 2644-2644.

Cohen, A. E., E. R. Mansell, 2008: Flash rate, electrical, microphysical, and dynamical relationships across a simulated storm spectrum. Extended Abstracts, Third Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, New Orleans, LA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 4.5.

Many studies have suggested relationships between intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash rates and microphyiscal variables both from an observational perspective and for specific storm intensity and morphology. These relationships provide a necessary component to lightning forecasting, especially when combined with improved and more comprehensive radar data. This study provides an analysis of the relationships between flash rates and several microphysical quantities across a wide spectrum of simulated storms. Some of these quantities include electric field, graupel volume, updraft mass flux, rain mass, ice crystal mass flux, updraft volume, maximum updraft, and cloud ice mass. Eleven unique storms were simulated using the Collaborative Model for Multiscale Atmospheric Simulation (COMMAS) to maximize the temporal and spatial resolution of the analysis. Modifications to surface moisture and bulk shear depth and magnitude yielded a wide range of storm intensity and morphology, from weak, unicell storms, to strong squall lines and supercells. Each case was run with two different noninductive graupel-ice charge separation schemes, for a total of 22 simulations. Results show that the relationships between total flash rate and rain mass, ice crystal mass flux, and graupel volume are significant, while the relationships are weak for electric field and maximum updraft. In cases where convection remained isolated (i.e., one cell in the model domain for most of the 120 minutes), the correlations between detrended total flash rate and graupel volume were also found to be significant. Additionally, by translating flash rate time series backwards in time, the correlation coefficients between flash rates and some of the microphysical variables were found to increase. Understanding these relationships can provide the foundation for future work in predicting flash rates across a wide range of storms based on observational information, including radar data.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/88Annual/techprogram/paper_133415.htm.

Cohn, S. J., J. Hallett, J. M. Lewis, 2006: Teaching graduate atmospheric measurement. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 1673-1678.

Coniglio, M. C., H. E. Brooks, S. J. Weiss, 2005: Use of proximity sounding parameters to improve the prediction of MCS speed and demise. 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Washington, DC, USA, American Meteorological Society, 3.3.

Coniglio, M. C., D. J. Stensrud, L. J. Wicker, 2006: Effects of upper-level shear on the structure and maintenance of strong quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 63, 1231-1252.

Recent observational studies have shown that strong midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) tend to decay as they move into environments with less instability and smaller deep-layer vertical wind shear. These observed shear profiles that contain significant upper-level shear are often different from the shear profiles considered to be the most favorable for the maintenance of strong, long-lived convective systems in some past idealized simulations. Thus, to explore the role of upper-level shear in strong MCS environments, a set of two-dimensional (2D) simulations of density currents within a dry, statically neutral environment is used to quantify the dependence of lifting along an idealized cold pool on the upper-level shear. A set of three-dimensional (3D) simulations of MCSs is produced to gauge the effects of the upper-level shear in a more realistic framework.

Results from the 2D experiments show that the addition of upper-level shear to a wind profile with weak to moderate low-level shear increases the vertical displacement of parcels despite a decrease in the vertical velocity along the cold pool interface. Parcels that are elevated above the surface (1–2 km) overturn and are responsible for the deep lifting in the deep-shear environments, while the surface-based parcels typically are lifted through the cold pool region in a rearward-sloping path. This deep overturning helps to maintain the leading convection and greatly increases the size and total precipitation output of the convective systems in more complex 3D simulations, even in the presence of 3D structures. These results show that the shear profile throughout the entire troposphere must be considered to gain a more complete understanding of the structure and maintenance of strong midlatitude MCSs.

Coniglio, M. C., S. F. Corfidi, 2006: Forecasting the speed and maintenance of severe mesoscale convective systems. Extended Abstracts, Severe Local Storms Symposium at the 86th AMS annual meeting, Atlanta, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, P1.30. [Available from National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd, Norman, OK, USA, 73071.]

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/104815.pdf.

Coniglio, M. C., H. E. Brooks, S. F. Corfidi, S. J. Weiss, 2007: Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 556-570.

The problem of forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is investigated through an examination of observed proximity soundings. Furthermore, environmental variables that are statistically different between mature and weakening MCSs are input into a logistic regression procedure to develop probabilistic guidance on MCS maintenance, focusing on warm-season quasi-linear systems that persist for several hours.
Between the mature and weakening MCSs, shear vector magnitudes over very deep layers are the best discriminators among hundreds of kinematic and thermodynamic variables. An analysis of the shear profiles reveals that the shear component perpendicular to MCS motion (usually parallel to the leading line) accounts for much of this difference in low levels and the shear component parallel to MCS motion accounts for much of this difference in mid-to-upper levels. The lapse rates over a significant portion of the convective cloud layer, the convective available potential energy, and the deep-layer mean wind speed are also very good discriminators and collectively provide a high level of discrimination between the mature and dissipation soundings as revealed by linear discriminant analysis. Probabilistic equations developed from these variables used with short-term numerical model output show utility in forecasting the transition of an MCS with a solid line of 50+ dbZ echoes to a more disorganized system with unsteady changes in structure and propagation. This study shows that empirical forecast tools based on environmental relationships still have the potential to provide forecasters with improved information on the qualitative characteristics of MCS structure and longevity. This is especially important since the current and near-term value added by explicit numerical forecasts of convection is still uncertain.

Coniglio, M. C., D. C. Dowell, L. J. Wicker, 2007: Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data: Analyses of a developing MCS. Extended Abstracts, 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, American Meteorlogical Society, 3B.3. [Available from Michael Coniglio, NSSL/FRDD, 120 David L. Boren Blvd, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Recent efforts at the National Severe Storms Laboratory and the University of Oklahoma/Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms have shown the positive impact of assimilating real Doppler velocity and reflectivity observations using an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) technique for the storm-scale analysis of supercell thunderstorms. Recently, the utility of this technique to other convective modes with multiple updrafts and more complex evolutions has been shown with analyses of the 16-17 June 2005 severe bow echo MCS across Oklahoma. It is well known that an accurate depiction of convective system cold pools is a prerequisite for the accurate short-term (1-12 h) prediction of MCSs by high-resolution numerical models. One of the most promising aspects of the analysis is the detailed and accurate depiction of the cold convective outflow and the robustness of the analyses to changes in the experimental design (although the well-known sensitivity to microphysics is still apparent). This talk will highlight the successful analysis of this event and discuss the mechanics of the EnKF procedure applied to a real and complex convective situation. In addition, the relative merits of 1-h forecasts produced from the EnKF analyses and the many outstanding issues that need to be addressed before these techniques can be applied in real time will be discussed.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124285.pdf.

Coniglio, M. C., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, M. L. Weisman, Z. I. Janjic, 2007: Evaluating storm-scale model output for severe-weather forecasting: The 2007 NOAA HWT Spring Experiment.. Preprints, 4th European Conference on Severe Storms, Trieste, Italy, International Centre for Theoretical Physics, CD-ROM, 03.11.

Coniglio, M. C., A. E. Cohen, S. F. Corfidi, S. J. Corfidi, 2007: Discrimination of MCS environments using sounding observations. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 1045-1062.

The prediction of the strength of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is a major concern to operational meteorologists and the public. To address this forecast problem, this study examines meteorological variables derived from sounding observations taken in the environment of quasi-linear MCSs. A set of 186 soundings that sampled the beginning and mature stages of the MCSs are categorized by their production of severe surface winds into weak, severe, and derecho-producing MCSs. Differences in the variables among these three MCS categories are identified and discussed. Mean low- to upper-level wind speeds and deep-layer vertical wind shear, especially the component perpendicular to the convective line, are excellent discriminators among all three categories. Low-level inflow relative to the system is found to be an excellent discriminator, largely because of the strong relationship of system severity to system speed. Examination of the mean wind and shear vectors relative to MCS motion suggests that cell propagation along the direction of cell advection is a trait that separates severe, long-lived MCSs from the slower-moving, nonsevere variety and that this is favored when both the deep-layer shear vector and the mean deep-layer wind are large and nearly parallel. Midlevel environmental lapse rates are found to be very good discriminators among all three MCS categories, while vertical differences in equivalent potential temperature and CAPE only discriminate well between weak and severe/derecho MCS environments. Knowledge of these variables and their distribution among the different categories of MCS intensity can be used to improve forecasts and convective watches for organized convective wind events.

Coniglio, M. C., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, J. J. Levit, M. Xue, M. L. Weisman, Z. I. Janjic, M. Pyle, J. Du, D. J. Stensrud, 2007: Evaluating WRF model output for severe-weather forecasting: The 2007 NOAA HWT Spring Experiment.. Extended Abstracts, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, 11A.2.

Coniglio, M. C., M. Bardon, K. Virts, S. J. Weiss, 2006: Forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems.. Extended Abstracts, 23rd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, 2.3.

Conway, J. B., D. Nealson, J. J. Stagliano, A. V. Ryzhkov, D. S. Zrnic, 2005: A New C-band Polarimetric Radar with Simultaneous Transmission for Hydrometeor Classification and Rainfall Measurements. Extended Abstracts, 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, NM, USA, AMS, CD-ROM, P12R.14.

Corfidi, S. F., S. J. Corfidi, D. M. Schultz, 2006: Toward a better understanding of elevated convection. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, P1.5.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/23SLS/techprogram/paper_115485.htm.

Dabberdt, W. F., T. W. Schlatter, F. H. Carr, E. W. Friday, D. P. Jorgensen, S. Koch, M. Pirone, F. M. Ralph, J. Sun, P. Welsh, X. Zou, 2005: Multi-Functional Mesoscale Observing Networks. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 961-982.

The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) sponsored a community workshop on the design and development of multifunctional mesoscale observing networks in support of integrated forecasting systems, on 8–10 December 2003 at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. The workshop goals were to identify challenges, needs, and opportunities involved in developing improved, economically viable, integrated atmospheric mesoscale observing, modeling, and information-delivery systems. Recommendations were sought for improved mesoscale observing networks that recognize the needs of users, modelers, and forecasters.

Diffenbaugh, N. S., R. J. Trapp, H. E. Brooks, 2008: Does Global Warming Influence Tornado Activity?. EOS, TRANSACTIONS, AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 89, 533-534.

Tornadoes and other severe thunderstorm phenomena frequently cause as much annual property damage in the United States as do hurricanes, and often cause more fatalities (see http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml). In 2008, there were 2176 preliminary tornado reports logged through mid-December, with 1600 “actual counts” (duplicate reports removed) through September, the highest total in the past half century (Figure 1). The mass media have covered these events extensively, and experts have been deluged with requests for explanations, including possible links to anthropogenic global warming. Although recent research has yielded insight into the connections between global warming and tornado and severe thunderstorm forcing, these relationships remain mostly unexplored, largely because of the challenges in observing and numerically simulating tornadoes. Indeed, a number of questions that have been answered for other climate-related phenomena remain particularly difficult for climate and severe weather scientists, including whether there are detectable trends in tornado occurrence and if so, what causes them. This article explores the challenges and opportunities in pursuing these areas of research.

Available online at ://http://www.agu.org/journals/eo/eo0853/2008EO530001.pdf.

Dodson, A., S. Van Cooten, K. Howard, J. Zhang, X. Xu, 2008: Assessing Vertical Profiles of Reflectivity (VPR's) To Detect Extreme Rainfall: Implications for Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction. Preprints, 22nd Conference on Hydrology- Session 1, Weather To Climate Scale Hydrological Forecasting, New Orleans, LA, USA, AMS, CD-ROM, 1.5.

Tropical Storm Barry moved across the state of Florida from Tampa to Jacksonville on June 2 and then became extratropical as it moved northeast along the coastlines of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina from June 3 to June 4, 2007. Rainfall reports from gauges located within the surveillance areas of the Wakefield, Virginia (AKQ), Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina (RDU), and Morehead City, North Carolina (MHX), NEXRAD sites were collected and processed to document hourly rainfall rates associated with the system. In addition to the gauge data, atmospheric soundings from six area upper air observing sites were archived and analyzed to determine the response of atmospheric conditions, specifically freezing level, precipitable water, and atmospheric instability, as the system affected the region.

NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Q2 System (www. nmq.nssl.noaa.gov) produces Vertical Profiles of Reflectivity (VPR) every five minutes for each continental United States (CONUS) NEXRAD site. These VPRs are used in the production of five-minute multi-sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) to provide constantly updated relationships between radar reflectivity factor, Z, and rain rate, R (Z-R). VPRs were archived for June 3 and 4 for AKQ, RDU, and MHX. The VPRs were analyzed to quantify radar reflectivity trends over the course of the storm event. These trends were then correlated with rainfall rates, atmospheric sounding data, and surface observations, to investigate the characteristics of the VPRs associated with the highest rainfall rates. Results of this analysis indicate VPRs associated with the highest hourly rainfall rates observed with the storm system occurred as VPRs lost a concentrated area of high reflectivities around the atmospheric freezing level. Additionally, the gradient of radar reflectivities above and below this dissipating high reflectivity area diminished. Atmospheric soundings and surface map analysis indicated the air mass characteristics were acquiring tropical characteristics as surface dew points and atmospheric water content were increasing, wind directions transitioned from westerly to an easterly fetch off the Atlantic Ocean, and the atmospheric freezing level was rising. As the storm system moved away from the Carolinas, VPRs began to regain a concentrated area of high reflectivities around the atmospheric freezing level and the gradient of radar reflectivities began to increase once again above and below the area of higher reflectivities.

To quantify the implications of these VPR characteristics on the accuracy of the Q2 system's five-minute multi-sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE), the Q2 statistical verification tools were used to evaluate the performance of the system during the periods of the most intense rainfall. The Q2 system has recently implemented a tropical rain Z-R when VPRs and atmospheric sounding data meet criteria which have been identified by NSSL scientists as common factors in intense rainfall events. The VPRs observed through this June, 2007 storm event, were consistent with their findings. Results of this assessment show the Q2 tropical Z-R relationship produced highly accurate precipitation estimates which are available at a 1 km grid mesh resolution every five minutes. Additionally, the dynamic VPR system captured the air mass changes which occurred during the event. This feature provides improved information on a storm's environment to determine appropriate radar Z-R adjustments. This case demonstrates the ability to increase the accuracy of precipitation estimates especially in ungauged locations which can improve NOAA and our nation's flash flood monitoring and prediction programs.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/88Annual/techprogram/paper_135143.htm.

Doswell, C. A., D. M. Schultz, 2006: On the use of indices and parameters in forecasting severe storms. Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, 1(3), 1-22.

This paper discusses our concept of the proper (and improper) use of diagnostic variables in severe-storm forecasting. A framework for classification of diagnostic variables is developed, indicating the limi-tations of such variables and their suitability for operational diagnosis and forecasting. The utility of diag-nostic indices and parameters as prognostic tools for forecasting is discussed, revealing the relevant issues in designing new diagnostic variables used for making weather forecasts. Finally, criteria required to claim that a new diagnostic variable represents an effective prognostic variable are proposed. We argue that few, if any, diagnostic variables have met these criteria for demonstrated utility at prognosis.

Available online at ://http://www.ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/issue/view/3.

Doswell III, C. A., H. E. Brooks, M. P. Kay, 2005: Climatological estimates of daily local nontornadic severe thunderstorm probability for the United States. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 577-595.

The probability of nontornadic severe weather event reports near any location in the United States for any day of the year has been estimated. Gaussian smoothers in space and time have been applied to the observed record of severe thunderstorm occurrence from 1980 to 1994 to produce daily maps and annual cycles at any point. Many aspects of this climatology have been identified in previous work, but the method allows for the consideration of the record in several new ways. A review of the raw data, broken down in various ways, reveals that numerous nonmeteorological artifacts are present in the raw data. These are predominantly associated with the marginal nontornadic severe thunderstorm events, including an enormous growth in the number of severe weather reports since the mid-1950s. Much of this growth may be associated with a drive to improve warning verification scores. The smoothed spatial and temporal distributions of the probability of nontornadic severe thunderstorm events are presented in several ways. The distribution of significant nontornadic severe thunderstorm reports (wind speeds 65 kt and/or hailstone diameters 2 in.) is consistent with the hypothesis that supercells are responsible for the majority of such reports.

Douglas, M., J. M. Galvez, J. F. Mejia, C. Brown, R. Orozco, C. Watts, 2005: Seasonal evolution of the sea-land breeze circulation and its role in the precipitation climatology of northwestern Mexico. Preprints, 6th Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes (6COASTAL), San Diego, CA, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, 3.7.

Douglas, M. W., J. Mejia, J. Murillo, R. Orozco, 2007: Spatial Structure of Cloudiness Associated with the Mid-Summer Drought from MODIS and GOES Imagery. Extended Abstracts, AGU Joint Assembly, Acapulco, Mexico, AGU, H51G-04.

Douglas, M. W., R. Orozco, J. F. Mejia, 2008: Mapping the spatial extent of the Central American mid-summer drought with MODIS and GOES imagery. Preprints, 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Orlando, FL, USA, American Meteorological Society, P1C.10. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Many parts of Central America and southern Mexico experience an extended dry period within the longer period of summer rains. This mid-summer drought (MSD), usually during July and August, shows a complicated spatial structure, reflecting the interaction of the large-scale synoptic flow and the varied topography of the region. We have used MODIS imagery (250 m resolution) and GOES 10 km imagery for the years 1983 to 2006 to describe the spatial structure of the cloudiness associated with the MSD. Compositing results using specific periods and also by using different indices (trade wind intensity and cloudiness over specific domains) will be shown. The importance (and challenge) of identifying suitable indices that represent the MSD will be discussed.

Douglas, M. W., J. F. Mejia, 2008: Aircraft measurements of temperature anomalies associated with tropical waves during NAMMA. Preprints, 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Orlando, FL, USA, American Meteorological Society, P1E.4. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Special measurements were made of tropical waves over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the NASA-AMMA field program during August and September 2006. One objective of this program was to help determine why some waves develop rapidly into tropical storms while most do not. This presentation shows the temperature anomalies associated with the different waves sampled by the dropsonde and flight level data from the NASA DC-8 and also other estimates of the temperature field from in-situ soundings. The analyses will be compared both with operational global analyses and with mesoscale analyses produced by assimilating the aircraft observations with the WRF model.

Douglas, M. W., J. F. Mejia, R. Orozco, S. Henry, 2008: Quantifying the extent and degree of cloud-affected tropical environments with MODIS imagery. Two extreme environments: Lomas and cloud forests. Preprints, 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Orlando, FL, USA, American Meteorological Society, 10.1. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Quantifying the extent and degree of cloud-affected tropical environments with MODIS imagery. Two extreme environments: Lomas and cloud forests

Michael W. Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. F. Mejia, R. Orozco, and S. Henry

Using a simple algorithm for extracting cloudiness from the visible MODIS imagery we have developed short-period (~ several years) cloudiness climatologies for different tropical regions at 250m spatial resolution. This presentation focuses on two environments that are difficult to accurately delineate with conventional climate data or even current satellite-based rainfall estimation techniques. One such environment, tropical cloud forest, is characterized by very high precipitation and also high cloudiness. However, cloud forest is mostly distinguished from surrounding lowland rain forest by the very high frequency of cloudiness and its small spatial extent. The second environment of our study is the coastal fog/low cloud zone along arid coastlines (known as “lomas” in Peru). These regions receive almost no rainfall, yet have vegetation supported by the frequent low clouds that intercept the topography along the coast. Such areas are even more difficult to identify from raingauges or satellite rainfall estimates than cloud forests.

We have developed a simple algorithm to use the cloudiness frequencies obtained from the MODIS imagery to classify the “intensity” of both the cloud forests and the lomas. The algorithm uses MODIS imagery from the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites to stratify cloudiness by annual amount, seasonality, and diurnal variability. Areas most favorable for vegetation growth are those with maximum annual frequency of cloudiness and minimum seasonality and diurnal variation, other factors being equal.S

Douglas, M. W., J. F. Mejia, J. F. Galvez, J. Murillo, R. Orozco, 2008: West African pilot balloon network during the NAMMA-2006 and implications for the future of the African pilot balloon sounding network.. Preprints, The 88th Annual Meeting (20-24 January 2008) (New Orleans, LA), New Orleans, LA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 15B.5. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

The West African pilot balloon network during the NAMMA-2006 and implications for the future of the African pilot balloon sounding network

Michael W. Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Murillo, J. F. Mejia, J. M. Galvez, and R. Orozco

The pilot balloon network in West Africa has been in place for more than 50 years, and in the past the network was characterized by relatively frequent observations (often 4-times daily) and with high spatial density (more than 20 stations in West Africa). Such a network would be potentially very useful in helping to track the African waves that typically evolve into tropical storms over the Atlantic Ocean. However, the pilot balloon network has decayed in recent decades. The NAMMA (NASA-African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)), involving a field campaign in 2006, afforded an opportunity to attempt to re-invigorate the pilot balloon network. One component of NAMMA involved strengthening the pilot balloon wind sounding network over west Africa to help describe the intensity of African waves exiting the continent. Four countries were the focus of this work and 10 stations were visited over the course of one month just prior to the NAMMA. Many technical problems were encountered and dealt with, but many problems were related to the personnel and the organization of the National Meteorological Services of the region. Some success was achieved in making the observations, but considerably less than was initially expected. This talk summarizes the main problems encountered, our short-term solutions, and our perspectives on how renovating this potentially-valuable network may be possible.

Douglas, M. W., J. M. Murillo, R. K. Orozco, J. F. Mejias, 2008: Underutilized observations for studying tropical climate variations: the historical pilot balloon database.. Preprints, The 88th Annual Meeting (20-24 January 2008) (New Orleans, LA), New Orleans, LA, USA, American Meteorological Organization, 3B.6. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Underutilized observations for studying tropical climate variations: the historical pilot balloon data base

Michael W. Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and R. Orozco, J. F. Mejia, and J. Murillo

The longest-running atmospheric sounding data base is that from pilot balloon observations (“pibals”), whose routine observations date from the early 20th century. Such observations are still made today, though mostly in developing countries in Asia and Africa. Although pibals are subject to limitations (cloudiness and darkness being the two most obvious ones), their low cost has historically allowed for more frequent and more widespread use than radiosondes. Much less well-known, and less appreciated, is that pibals have some advantages over radiosonde winds for studies of climate variability. The procedure for making a pibal has not fundamentally changed in 100 years, unlike wind observations obtained from rawinsonde systems – which have used radiotheodolites, Omega, LORAN and now GPS. Wind profiles obtained from these different systems show somewhat differing characteristics, which can complicate identifying historical trends in wind data.

Making effective use of historical pilot balloon data for climate studies requires availability of the original angle data and some metadata - such as the characteristics of the balloons and inflation procedures. We discuss the difficulty in obtaining both of these; a major effort at digitizing the global data base of pilot balloon observations will be required. Studies are underway (results will be shown) to evaluate the uncertainties introduced into mean wind profiles due to missing data (generally due to clouds), and the observational errors that characterize different pibal networks. These need to be known to determine the limitations of pibals for describing and monitoring regional climate variations.

Douglas, M. W., J. Murillo, J. F. Mejia, 2008: Two courses missing from meteorology programs at US universities.. Preprints, The 88th Annual Meeting (20-24 January 2008) (New Orleans, LA), New Orleans, LA, USA, American Meteorological Society, P1.35. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Two courses missing from US university meteorology programs

Michael W. Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Murillo and J. F. Mejia

This presentation describes the need for, and potential content of, two meteorological courses usually lacking in meteorology programs at US universities. These subjects are somewhat related and potentially could be combined into one course. The first subject is that of “Design and execution of field programs in the atmospheric sciences”. While it might be argued that there is such diversity in meteorological field activities that “hands-on” learning is best, there are many aspects common to most field studies that students could benefit from via formal lectures. Such a course might best be taught at the advanced graduate level, where students are closer to participating in, and perhaps helping design, such activities. The second, somewhat complementary course, might be titled “International Meteorological Activities and the functions of National Meteorological Services”. Rarely are US students (unlike foreign students) exposed to the enormous variety of meteorological activities that occur globally. An equally small number of students have a good conceptual understanding of the different components of any National Meteorological Service (including that of the US). Material common to both courses would include covering the existing (and research) observing systems across the globe – this material is often left out of courses on meteorological instrumentation.

Motivation for developing this material has come from the development of courses for international audiences with widely varying backgrounds. A sample syllabus will be provided to stimulate discussion.

Douglas, M. W., J. Murillo, R. Orozco, J. M. Galvez, J. F. Mejia, 2006: Accuracy of the Aviation Model (AVN) final analyses over Central South America based upon upper air observations collected during the SALLJEX.. Preprints, 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (ICSHMO), Foz do Iguazu, Brazil, AMS, PC1-24.

Douglas, M. W., J. M. Galvez, C. R. Reyes, R. Orozco, 2006: Observed diurnal circulations and rainfall over the altiplano during the SALLJEX.. Preprints, 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (ICSHMO), Foz do Iguazu, Brazil, American Meteorological Society, PA1-9.

Douglas, M. W., J. M. Galvez, 2006: Modulation of rainfall by Lake Titicaca using the WRF Model.. Preprints, 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (ICSHMO), Foz do Iguazu, Brazil, American Meteorological Society, PB1-21.

Douglas, M. W., J. M. Galvez, 2006: Northward-propagating surges east of the Andes during the SALLJEX.. Preprints, 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (ICSHMO), Foz do Iguazu, Brazil, American Meteorological Society, PB3-33.

Douglas, M. W., J. F. Mejia, 2006: Flow around the Andean elbow from WRF simulations and P-3 aircraft measurements during SALLJEX.. Preprints, 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (ICSHMO), Foz do Iguazu, Brazil, American Meteorological Society, PB3-32.

Douglas, M. W., J. M. Galvez, R. Orozco, J. F. Mejjia, 2006: Plausible effects of Paleolake Tauca on the altiplano circulations and rainfall from WRF model simulations.. Preprints, 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (ICSHMO), Foz do Iguazu, Brazil, American Meteorological Society, PB3-34.

Douglas, M. W., J. Regalado, J. Murillo, 2006: Atmospheric soundings across an oceanic front between the Galapagos Islands and the coast of South America from the INOCAR cruise of October 2005.. Preprints, 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (ICSHMO), Foz do Iguazu, Brazil, American Meteorological Society, PA3-33. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Special radiosonde observations were made from the INOCAR research vessel Orion during the
second INOCAR oceanographic cruise of 2005. These observations were carried out for both
operational and scientific objectives. Operationally, we sought to evaluate the feasibility of
routinely making radiosonde observations from the ship, and determining what the ship might
need for such observations. Since relatively few upper air observations have been made
between the Galapagos Islands and the coast of Ecuador we wanted to obtain high spatial
resolution soundings across the equatorial cold tongue, which has been the subject of recent
research measurements farther west in the eastern Pacific. Some results of the boundary layer
over the cold tongue, based on the radiosonde measurements, are reported here. With some
modifications, the Orion is a suitable platform for routine atmospheric measurements in this
poorly sampled region of the eastern Pacific.

Douglas, M. W., L. Florez, N. Ordinola, J. Murillo, 2006: Variability of the meridional flow near the Equator from 8 years of pilot balloon observations at Piura, Peru.. Preprints, 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (ICSHMO), Foz do Iguazu, Brazil, American Meteorological Society, PD3-14. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, Brazil, 73072.]

Pilot balloon observations have been made at Piura, Peru since 1997 as part of the PACS–SONET project. This data set is the most complete set of observations from SONET, andillustrates the value of a single station’s multi-year record for studies of interannual variability ofthe windfield near the equator.

Douglas, M. W., R. Orozco, J. M. Galvez, J. Murillo, J. F. Mejia, 2006: The seasonal evolution of the diurnal variation of the low-level winds around the Gulf of California. Is there a link to vegetation green-up during the wet season?. Preprints, 86th American Meteorological Annual Meeting (18th Conference on Climate Variability and Change), Atlanta, GA, Atlanta, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, J3.4. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Sea-land breeze circulations are ubiquitous along the Gulf of California. Sea breezes are well developed because of the strong heating over the desertic regions along both sides of the Gulf. However, the sea surface temperature has a large seasonal range, especially over the northern Gulf. In addition, after the start of the summer rains there is a rapid foliation of the seasonal dry forest found along the eastern side of the Gulf. It was hypothesized that the rapid vegetation change and associated change in the land surface characteristics (albedo and evapotranspiration) might modify the sea-land breeze circulations. This might in turn affect the diurnal evolution of rainfall over the region. The recently ended North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) afforded an opportunity to determine the possible seasonal variation of the sea-breeze intensity and its relationship with the onset of the rainy season. This presentation will describe the effort to measure the diurnal cycle of the winds and its seasonal variation. A network of 7 pilot balloon stations made observations twice-daily for approximately four months, with two of these making more frequent observations during special periods. Surface observations from automated surface stations were also available. The monthly mean winds from the different stations will be shown, as well as divergence estimates over different subregions of the pilot balloon array. The changes in sea-breeze intensity and the area-averaged divergence estimates will be compared with the seasonal evolution of the Gulf surface temperature and mean land surface temperature changes and the observed rainfall onset over the region.

Douglas, M. W., R. Orozco, J. M. Galvez, 2006: Diurnal variability of the cloud field over the VOCALS domain from GOES imagery.. Preprints, 86th American Meteorological Annual Meeting (14th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere), Atlanta, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, P1.3. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

As part of ongoing studies of mesoscale variability over the South American altiplano we have produced averages of the cloudiness using GOES imagery. These composites are made at full resolution of the imagery, to help identify the relationship between the underlying topography and the cloud field. The upcoming VOCALS activity, focused on the stratocumulus region of the southeastern Pacific, has as one objective the description of the diurnal cycle of this cloudiness and its relationship to the South American continent. With this in mind, we have produced GOES imagery composites for the SE Pacific with 30 min temporal resolution. These composites show the diurnal variation of the cloudiness and its apparent propagation offshore. The composites are stratified by time of year. Comparison is made with the simulated diurnal cycles reported in the literature.

Douglas, M. W., T. Killeen, J. F. Mejia, 2006: Use of MODIS and GOES imagery to help delineate the distribution of cloud forests along the eastern Andean slopes.. Preprints, (14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography), Atlanta, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, P3.18. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

The environment with the greatest biodiversity from a global standpoint is that known as the tropical Andes “hotspot”, which is a broad region along the eastern slopes of the Andes in South America. One of the subregions with the highest diversity within this region is the cloud forest, a region of very high cloudiness and high annual precipitation. Mapping the cloud forest and surrounding environments has been of high priority because resources for conservation are limited and conservation organizations and governmental agencies need to know what areas should receive highest priority for protection efforts.

Work associated with the South American Low-level Jet Experiment (SALLJEX) carried out in 2002-3 led to the use of GOES imagery to develop composites of visible and IR imagery for describing the mean cloudiness along the eastern slopes of the Andes. More recently MODIS imagery has been used to describe cloudiness at even higher resolution. Together, these imagery sources provide clues as to the distribution of cloudiness that can be related to cloud forest environment. In addition, dry canyon environments, the locus of many geographically-restricted species, can likewise be readily described from the cloudiness composites.

The GOES and MODIS cloudiness composites will be shown, and some limitations of inferring cloud forest locations and dry canyon habitat from the imagery will be discussed. The potential for this technique to be applied to other areas will be mentioned.

Douglas, M. W., N. Ordinola, J. F. Mejia, 2005: Rainfall variations along the coast of Peru and Ecuador during the 1997–8 El Niño and implications for a real-time forecasting system over the region. Preprints, Ninth Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), 85th AMS Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA, USA, American Meterological Society, 5.2. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Special observations collected during the 1997-8 El Niño event along the coast of Peru and Ecuador have been re-evaluated, together with NCEP reanalyses and satellite imagery for the period. We had previously composited the special pilot balloon observations with respect to rainfall measurements made over the region to describe the wet- and dry-day characteristics. Recently, we have generated composites of satellite imagery and meteorological fields derived from the NCEP reanalyses and we have revised the composites done previously. We will show the mean fields associated with wet and dry days, together with the evolution of these fields. Satellite composites for the different periods will also be shown. Using these results we discuss the implications for a weather forecasting network over the region that experiences little rainfall, but when it occurs it is very important. The kinds of observations that might be needed for such a network, which might be temporary rather than permanent, are outlined. .

Douglas, M. W., J. Murillo, 2005: Reasons for the failure of the Pan American Climate Studies Sounding Network (PACS-SONET) in Latin America.. Preprints, Ninth Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), San Diego, CA, USA, American Meteorological Society, p1.18. [Available from Michael W Douglas, 120 David Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

NOAA's Office of Global Programs has supported a network of pilot balloon stations in Latin America to provide wind measurements in areas where few observations previously existed. This network has existed since 1997 in various forms, with up to 20 sites providing daily or twice-daily observations. Although some success has been obtained, the network has not succeeded in obtaining self-sustainability within the host countries. This presentation will discuss some of the factors that have prevented a sustainable climate monitoring upper air network from being achieved. Many logistical factors have complicated the network's operation, but we feel that the main problem lies within the educational arena of the countries involved. The lack of meteorologically-educated personnel throughout the weather services and other institutions of the region has prevented and thorough understanding of the objectives of the network. In addition, the emphasis on inexpensive technology may have also generated the perception that the activity was not important because of the low overall cost. Some of these perception problems will be discussed in this presentation . A strategy for maintaining a self-sustaining activity will be outlined, though its feasibility may be in doubt.

Douglas, M. W., J. Murillo, J. F. Mejia, 2005: Conducting short duration field programs to evaluate sounding site representativness and potential climate monitoring biases-Examining the Low-Level Jet Over the Venezuelan Llanos During the 2005 Dry Season. Preprints, 13th Symposium on Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation, Savannah, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, JP1.32.

Douglas, M. W., R. Orozco, J. M. Galvez, 2005: Measuring and monitoring the mesoclimate of tropical locations. Field observations from the South American altiplano during the SALLJEX. Preprints, 13th Symposium on Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation, Savannah, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 6.2.

Douglas, M. W., 2008: The Pan American Climate Studies Sounding Network. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 1709-1725.

A research effort primarily involving pilot balloon observations was carried out during the summer of 1997 to study rainfall variability over Central America. This activity, supported by NOAA's Pan American Climate Studies (PACS) program, grew in scope in response to the strong El Niño event of 1997/98 and subsequently evolved into a network ranging from Mexico to Paraguay. The overall goal of the PACS-Sounding Network (PACS-SONET) was to obtain relatively inexpensive wind profiles for describing climate variability over parts of the intertropical Americas that were not well covered by routine radiosonde observations. Major portions of the project supported climate research programs focusing on both the South and North American monsoon systems, while other parts of the network provided multiyear observations across important gaps in the Central American cordillera and also helped to describe cross-equatorial flow variations in the eastern Pacific. Approximately 50,000 observations were made by the PACS-SONET over its 10-yr operation.

This paper describes the motivation for and evolution of the network, the logistical complications that were involved in establishing and operating a long-term multinational network, and some of the important results from analysis of the data. We conclude by discussing some of our perspectives on why the network was unable to make a transition from research funding to one supported by meteorological services of the region.

Douglas, M. W., J. Mejia, R. Orozco, J. Murillo, 2008: Suggestions for upgrading the pilot balloon network in West Africa and elsewhere in the tropics. Extended Abstracts, TECO-2008 - WMO Technical Conference on Meteorological and Environmental Instruments and Methods of Observation, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, World Meteorological Organization, 1(9).

Based on experience during the 2006 NAMMA field program we provide some recommendations for improving the pilot balloon network over the West Africa region. These range from relatively straightforward suggestions as to adjusting the launch time to maximize sounding height, to improved efforts to maintain the equipment and train observers. The supply of gas for balloon inflation is probably the largest logistical problem, followed by quality control of the data. The paper concludes by suggesting that the fastest way to upgrade the sounding network over Africa is to make it independent of National Meteorological Services and place it under an independent body that would oversee all aspects of its operation – for the benefit of Numerical Weather Prediction and climate monitoring objectives. The reasons for this seemingly drastic action are presented.

Available online at ://http://www.knmi.nl/samenw/geoss/wmo/TECO2008/IOM-96-TECO2008/1(09)_Douglas_USA.pdf.

Douglas, M. W., 2008: Progress towards development of the glidersonde: a recoverable radiosonde system. Extended Abstracts, TECO-2008 - WMO Technical Conference on Meteorological and Environmental Instruments and Methods of Observation, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, World Meteorological Organization, P1(6).

The motivation and history of development of a recoverable radiosonde system using a glider lifted aloft by a radiosonde balloon – the “glidersonde”, is summarized in this poster. The current status of development efforts currently involve at least three separate groups; in the USA, in South Africa, and a version, developed in New Zealand, is now being marketed commercially. These efforts are briefly summarized, as are some limitations that still need to be overcome for widespread adoption of such technology.

Available online at ://http://www.knmi.nl/samenw/geoss/wmo/TECO2008/IOM-96-TECO2008/P1(06)_Douglas_USA.pdf.

Elmore, K. L., M. E. Baldwin, D. M. Schultz, 2006: Field Significance Revisited: Spatial Bias Errors in Forecasts as Applied to the Eta Model. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 519-531.

The spatial structure of bias errors in numerical model output is valuable to both model developers and operational forecasters, especially if the field containing the structure itself has statistical significance in the face of naturally occurring spatial correlation. A semi-parametric
Monte Carlo method, along with a moving blocks bootstrap method is used to determine the field significance of spatial bias errors within spatially correlated error fields. This process can be completely automated, making it an attractive addition to the verification tools already in use. The process demonstrated here results in statistically significant spatial bias error fields at any arbitrary
significance level.

To demonstrate the technique, 0000 and 1200 UTC runs of the operational Eta model and the operational Eta model using the Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization scheme are examined. The resulting fields for forecast errors for geopotential heights and winds at 850, 700, 500, and 250 hPa over a period of 14 months (26 January 2001 through 31 March 2002) are examined and compared using the verifying initial analysis. Specific examples are shown, and some plausible causes for the resulting significant bias errors are proposed.

Elmore, K. L., D. M. Schultz, M. E. Baldwin, 2006: The Behavior of Synoptic-Scale Errors in the Eta Model. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 3355-3366.

A previous study of the mean spatial bias errors associated with operational forecast models motivated an examination of the mechanisms responsible for these biases. One hypothesis for the cause of these errors is that mobile synoptic-scale phenomena are partially responsible. This paper explores this hypothesis using 24-h forecasts from the operational Eta model and an experimental version called the EtaKF.
For a sample of 44 well-defined upper-level short-wave troughs arriving on the west coast of the United States, 70% were underforecast (as measured by the 500-hPa geopotential height), a likely result of being undersampled by the observational network. For a different sample of 45 troughs that could be tracked easily across the country, consecutive model runs showed that the height errors associated with 44% of the troughs generally decreased in time, 11% increased in time, 18% had relatively steady errors, 2% were uninitialized entering the west coast, and 24% exhibited some other kind of behavior. Thus, landfalling short-wave troughs were typically underforecast (positive errors, heights too high), but these errors tended to decrease as they moved across the United States, likely a result of being better initialized as the troughs became influenced by more upper-air data. Nevertheless, some errors in short-wave troughs were not corrected as they fell under the influence of supposedly increased data amount and quality. These results indirectly show the effect that the amount and quality of observational data has on the synoptic-scale errors in the models. On the other hand, long-wave ridges tended to be underforecast (negative errors, heights too low) over a much larger horizontal extent.
These results are confirmed in a more systematic manner over the entire dataset by segregating the model output at each grid point by the sign of the 500-hPa relative vorticity. Although errors at grid points with positive relative vorticity are small but positive in the western United States, the errors become large and negative farther east. Errors at grid points with negative relative vorticity, on the other hand, are generally negative across the United States. A large negative bias observed in the Eta and EtaKF over the southeast United States is believed to be due to an error in the longwave radiation scheme interacting with water vapor and clouds. This study shows that model errors may be related to the synoptic-scale flow, and even large scale features such as long-wave troughs can be associated with significant large-scale height errors.

Available online at ://http://ams.allenpress.com/.

Emersic, C., D. MacGorman, T. Schuur, N. Lund, C. Payne, E. Bruning, 2007: Lightning activity relative to the microphysical and kinematic structure of storms during a thunder-snow episode on 29-30 November 2006. Preprints, 2007 Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, American Geophysical Union, AE43A-01.

We have examined lightning activity relative to the microphysical and kinematic structure of a winter thunderstorm complex (a thunder-snow episode) observed east of Norman, Oklahoma during the evening of 29-30 November 2006. Polarimetric radar provided information about the type of particles present in various regions of the storms. The Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) recorded VHF signals produced by developing lightning channels. The times of arrival of these lightning signals across the array were then used to reconstruct the location and structure of lightning, and these reconstructions were overlaid with radar data to examine the relationship between lightning properties and storm particle types.

Four storms in this winter complex have been examined. It was inferred from lightning structure that, in their mature stage, all cells we examined had a positive tripole electrical structure (an upper positive charge center, a midlevel negative charge center, and a lower positive charge center). The storms began with lightning activity in the lower dipole (lower positive and midlevel negative regions), but this evolved into lightning activity throughout the tripole structure within approximately 15-20 minutes. In the longer lived storms, the mature stage lasted for approximately 1.5-2 hours. During this stage, the lower positive charge region was situated less than 5 km above ground, the midlevel negative charge region was typically above 5 km, and the upper positive charge region was located at an altitude of less than 10 km in all the storm cells analyzed. The charge regions descended over approximately the last 30 minutes of lightning activity, the lower charge regions eventually reaching ground. This resulted in the loss of the lower positive charge center and the subsequent diminishment of the lower negative charge center.

Engerer, N. A., D. J. Stensrud, M. C. Coniglio, 2008: Surface Characteristics of Observed Cold Pools. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 4839-4849.

Cold pools are a key element in the organization of precipitating convective systems, yet knowledge of their typical surface characteristics is largely anecdotal. To help alleviate this situation, cold pools from 39 mesoscale convective system (MCS) events are sampled using Oklahoma Mesonet surface observations. One thousand three hundred and eighty-nine time series of surface observations are used to determine typical rises in surface pressure and decreases in temperature, potential temperature, and equivalent potential temperature associated with the cold pool, and the maximum wind speeds in the cold pool. The data are separated into one of four convective system lifecycle stages: first storms, MCS initiation, mature MCS, and MCS dissipation. Results indicate that the mean surface pressure rises associated with cold pools increase from 3.2 hPa for the first storms lifecycle stage to 4.5 hPa for the mature MCS stage before dropping to 3.3 hPa for the dissipation stage. In contrast, the mean temperature (potential temperature) deficits associated with cold pools decrease from 9.5 K (9.8 K) to 5.4 K (5.6 K) from the first storms to dissipation stage, with a decrease of approximately 1 K associated with each advance in lifecycle stage. However, the daytime and early evening observations show mean temperature deficits over 11 K. A comparison of these observed cold pool characteristics with results from idealized numerical simulations of MCSs suggests that observed cold pools likely are stronger than those found in model simulations, particularly when ice processes are neglected in the microphysics parameterization. The mean deficits in equivalent potential temperature also decrease with MCS lifecycle stage, starting at 21.6 K for first storms and dropping to 13.9 K for dissipation. Mean wind gusts are above 15 m s-1 for all lifecycle stages. These results should help numerical modelers determine if the cold pools in high-resolution models are in reasonable agreement with the observed characteristics found herein. Thunderstorm simulations and forecasts with thin model layers near the surface also are needed to obtain better representations of cold pool surface characteristics that can be compared with observations.

Fast, J. D., R. K. Newsom, K. J. Allwine, Q. Xu, P. Zhang, J. H. Copeland, J. Sun, 2007: Using NEXRAD wind retrievals as input to atmospheric dispersion models. Extended Abstracts, Seventh Symposium on the Urban Environment, San Diego, CA, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 8.2.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/7Coastal7Urban/techprogram/paper_127244.htm.

Fast, J. D., R. K. Newsom, K. J. Allwine, Q. Xu, P. Zhang, J. Copeland, J. Sun, 2008: An evaluation of two NEXRAD wind retrieval methedologies and their use in atmospheric dispersion models. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 47, 2351-2371.

Fierro, A. O., L. Leslie, E. R. Mansell, G. J. Holland, J. M. Straka, 2006: Numerical simulations of the evolution of tropical cyclone electrification, lightning, microphysics, and dynamics at landfall: preliminary results. Preprints, Second Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, Atlanta, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, P1.12.

Providing accurate and timely forecasts of the intensity and location of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major meteorological challenge, and is increasingly important as coastal regions affected become more populated. A major unsolved problem is why TCs vary so much in their electrical activity. Some storms have little lightning activity, while others are extremely active, especially in their spiral cloud bands or within their eyewall as they intensify or weaken. At present, little is known about the evolution of charge and subsequent electrification in hurricanes, so our early results are a guideline for future studies. The findings are expected to have major implications for TC predictions and lightning observation strategies at landfall. We suggest that they may also lead to improved understanding of TC structure in general.

Toward this goal, a sophisticated cloud model featuring a 10-ICE microphysics scheme and a 3D branched lightning module explores the utility of a systematic monitoring of lightning activity such as flash rate, cloud to ground polarity and stroke multiplicity within TCs, as they strengthen or weaken over the ocean, especially when they make landfall. Of interest is how the microphysical and subsequent charge structure differs from, or resembles, that of electrically active continental convective systems such as supercells or mesoscale convective systems. A preliminary set of high-resolution numerical simulations were performed on a fine grid having a horizontal grid spacing of 3km and a vertical mean spacing of 600 m (45 height levels). The environmental initial conditions were from a composite sounding from TC Charley (2004), which showed a clear increase in lightning activity before intensifying from a borderline Category 3 to a high-end Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale 8 hours before landfall on the west Florida coast. A meridionally orientated horizontal slab moving towards the TC at a fixed constant speed (of 8 m/s) was used as an initial simulation of landfall. More sophisticated landfall representations are being developed.

Preliminary results show that the highest total lightning flash rate are found within the stronger cells forming the outer rainbands and within the eyewall, where updraft speeds seldom exceed 15 m/s, consistent with observations. Significant charging capable to produce lightning flashes are collocated with regions having moderate graupel mixing ratio (> 0.5 g/kg) and moderate LWC (> 1 g/kg), namely within the eyewall and the strongest outer band cells. Using the Gardiner non-inductive scheme and weak inductive charging settings, the eyewall exhibits a normal tripole charge structure while a normal dipole is observed in the outer eyewall startiform region as induction responsible for the formation/enhancement of the lowest charge region becomes negligible there. The charges forming the dipole in the outer eyewall are generated within the eyewall via non-inductive collisional charging between graupel pellets and lighter ice crystals in the mixed-phase region at midlevels (~-15C isotherm level at 7km AGL) and are ejected radially outward by the centripetal force induced by the storm intense circulation at and near its center.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/Annual2006/techprogram/paper_103235.htm.

Fierro, A. O., M. S. Gilmore, L. J. Wicker, E. R. Mansell, J. M. Straka, 2006: Electrification and lightning in an idealized boundary-crossing supercell simulation of 2 June 1995. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 3171.

A nonhydrostatic cloud model with electrification and lightning processes was utilized to investigate how simulated supercell thunderstorms respond when they move into environments favorable for storm intensification. One model simulation was initialized with an idealized horizontally varying environment, characteristic of that observed across an outflow boundary in the west Texas Panhandle on 2 June 1995 with larger convective available potential energy (CAPE) and wind shear on the boundary’s cool side. That simulation was compared with a control simulation initialized without the boundary. The simulated right-moving supercell rapidly increased in updraft strength and volume, low-level rotation, radar reflectivity, and 40-dBZ echo-top height as it crossed the boundary, whereas the supercell that did not cross the boundary failed to intensify. For the same kinematic and microphysical evolution and the same inductive charging parameterization, four noninductive (NI) charging parameterizations were tested. In all four cases, there was a general tendency for the charge regions to be lofted higher within the updraft after crossing the boundary. Once the precipitation regions between the main storm and a secondary storm started merging farther on the cool side of the boundary, a gradual deepening and strengthening of the lowest charge regions occurred with relatively large increases in hail and graupel volume, charging rates, charge volume, charge density, and intracloud and cloud-to-ground (CG) flash rates. The negative charge present on graupel within the downdraft appeared to have a common origin via strong NI charging within the midlevel updraft in all four NI cases. Positive channels were more consistent in coming closer to the ground with time compared to negative channels within this graupel and hail-filled downdraft (four of four cases). Those NI schemes that also set up a positive dipole (three of four cases) or inverted tripole (two of four cases) above the downdraft had downward-propagating positive channels that reached ground as positive CG (+CG) flashes. The best overall performance relative to the 2 June 1995 CG lightning observations occurred within one of the rime-accretion-rate-based schemes and the Gardiner scheme as parameterized by Ziegler.

Fierro, A. O., L. Leslie, E. Mansell, J. Straka, D. MacGorman, C. Ziegler, 2007: A High-resolution Simulation of Microphysics and Electrification in an Idealized Hurricane-like Vortex. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 98, 13-33.

Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning bursts in the eyewall of mature tropical cyclones (TCs) are believed to be good indicators of imminent intensification of these systems. While numerous well-documented observational cases exist in the literature, no modeling studies of the electrification processes within TCs have previously been conducted. At present, little is known about the evolution of charge regions and lightning activity in mature TCs. Towards this goal, a numerical cloud model featuring a 12-class bulk microphysics scheme with electrification and lightning processes is utilized to investigate the evolution of the microphysics fields and subsequent electrical activity in an idealized hurricane-like vortex.

Preliminary results show that the highest total lightning flash rates (CG plus intracloud) are primarily found within the eyewall where updraft speeds tend to be larger than elsewhere in the TC, though rarely exceeding 10 m s^-1. Smaller total flash rates are also found within the strongest cells forming the outer bands, where updraft speeds sometimes reach 15 m s^-1. As expected, these two regions of the storm are generally characterized by moderate total graupel mixing ratio (> 0.5 g kg^-1) and moderate cloud water content (> 0.2 g m^-3). When the model uses the Saunders and Peck non-inductive (NI) charging scheme and moderate inductive charging settings, the inner eyewall region exhibits a complex charge structure. However, the charge regions involved in lightning can be described as a normal tripole charge structure in the eyewall, while a normal dipole is observed in the outer eyewall stratiform region and in the strongest cells forming the outer rainbands. The charges forming the normal dipole in the outer eyewall are generated within the eyewall via NI charging in the mixed-phase region at mid-levels (near the -10 deg C isotherm) and later, are ejected radially outward by the storm’s intense circulation.

Fujita, T., D. J. Stensrud, D. C. Dowell, 2005: Surface data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter approach with initial condition and model physics uncertainties. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Mesoscale Processes, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, 1M.3.

Fujita, T., D. J. Stensrud, D. C. Dowell, 2007: Surface data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter approach with initial condition and model physics uncertainty. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 1846-1868.

The assimilation of surface observations using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach is evaluated for the potential to improve short-range forecasting. Two severe weather cases are examined, in which the assimilation is performed over a 6-h period using hourly surface observations followed by an 18-h simulation period. Ensembles are created in three different ways, by using different initial and boundary conditions, by using different model physical process schemes, and by using both different initial and boundary conditions and different model physical process schemes. The ensembles are compared in order to investigate the role of uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions and physical process schemes in EnKF data assimilation. In the initial condition ensemble, spread is associated largely with the displacement of atmospheric baroclinic systems. In the physics ensemble, spread comes from the differences in model physics, which results in larger spread in temperature and dewpoint temperature than the initial condition ensemble, and smaller spread in the wind fields. The combined initial condition and physics ensemble has properties from both of the previous two ensembles. It provides the largest spread and produces the best simulation for most of the variables, in terms of the rms difference between the ensemble mean and observations. Perhaps most importantly, this combined ensemble provides very good guidance on the mesoscale features important to the severe weather events of the day.

Fujita, T., D. J. Stensrud, D. C. Dowell, 2008: Using Precipitation Observations in a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Analysis and Forecasting System. Weather and Forecasting, 23, 357-372.

A simple method to assimilate precipitation data from a synthesis of radar and gauge data is developed to operate alongside an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates hourly surface observations. The mesoscale ensemble forecast system consists of 25 members with 30-km grid spacing and incorporates variability in both initial and boundary conditions and model physical process schemes. The precipitation assimilation method only incorporates information on when and where rainfall is observed. Model temperature and water vapor mixing ratio profiles at each grid point are modified if rainfall is observed but not predicted, or if rainfall is predicted but not observed. These modifications act to either increase or decrease, respectively, the likelihood that precipitation develops at that grid point.

Two cases are examined in which this technique is applied to assimilate precipitation data every 15 min from 1200 to 1800 UTC, while hourly surface observations are also assimilated at the same time using the more sophisticated ensemble Kalman filter approach. Results show that the simple method for assimilating precipitation data helps the model develop precipitation where it is observed, resulting in the precipitation area being reproduced more accurately than in the run without precipitation-data assimilation, while not negatively influencing the positive results from the surface data assimilation. Improvement is also seen in the reliability of precipitation probabilities for a 1 mm h−1 threshold after the assimilation period, indicating that assimilating precipitation data may provide improved forecasts of the mesoscale environment for a few hours.

Gallus, W. A., M. E. Baldwin, K. L. Elmore, 2007: Evaluation of probabilistic precipitation forecasts determined from Eta and AVN forecasted amounts. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 207-215.

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-yr period on a contiguous U.S. domain. Specifically, the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF)–probability relationship found recently by Gallus and Segal in 10-km grid spacing model runs for 20 warm season mesoscale convective systems is tested over this much larger temporal and spatial dataset. A 1-yr period was used to investigate the QPF–probability relationship, and the predictive capability of this relationship was then tested on an independent 1-yr sample of data. The same relationship of a substantial increase in the likelihood of observed rainfall exceeding a specified threshold in areas where model runs forecasted higher rainfall amounts is found to hold over all seasons. Rainfall is less likely to occur in those areas where the models indicate none than it is elsewhere in the domain; it is more likely to occur in those regions where rainfall is predicted, especially where the predicted rainfall amounts are largest. The probability of rainfall forecasts based on this relationship are found to possess skill as measured by relative operating characteristic curves, reliability diagrams, and Brier skill scores. Skillful forecasts from the technique exist throughout the 48-h periods for which Eta and AVN output were available. The results suggest that this forecasting tool might assist forecasters throughout the year in a wide variety of weather events and not only in areas of difficult-to-forecast convective systems.

Galvez, J. M., 2006: Modulation of rainfall by the South American altiplano lakes. M.S. thesis, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 101 pp.

Rainfall over the South American altiplano is modulated via mesoscale circulations induced by diverse land-surface contrasts present over the region, such as lakes and dry salt flats. The variability of these circulations and associated rainfall has implications on the climate and paleoclimate of the altiplano. On climatic scales, prolonged periods of rainy conditions lead to above-normal levels over Lake Titicaca (16°S), which can produce local and remote flooding, sometimes inundating areas as far south as the Salar de Uyuni (22°S). On paleoclimate scales, transitions from dry salt flats into shallow lakes have been attributed to variations on the planetary circulation and insolation over the altiplano. Still, the role of mesoscale processes on these transitions has not yet been explored. With the goal of understanding the role of these types of processes on climate and paleoclimate dry-to-wet transitions in the altiplano, this study describes the mesoscale circulations and rainfall induced by Lake Titicaca and Salar de Uyuni. The study is based on observations collected during the South American Low Level Jet Experiment (SALLJEX 2002-3) and simulations carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.

The results suggest that the conditions necessary for the development and maintenance of nocturnal convection result from a combination of several factors: the coupling of a local moisture source, such as Lake Titicaca, a moist and weak-wind environment in and immediately over the altiplano boundary layer, and a source of low-level convergence which can be induced by a lake and/or by external mesoscale forcing mechanisms. This combination of factors, which periodically comes together over Lake Titicaca during the rainy season, does not occur over the salar. The latter appears to lack the characteristics of a moisture source and the conditions within the southern altiplano boundary layer are generally dry and windy. Changes in the mesoscale circulations in response to changes in the salar surface properties alone seem to be insufficient for a dry-to-wet climatic transition. Changes in the large-scale circulation pattern appear necessary for it to occur.

Gao, J., M. Xue, S. Lee, A. Shapiro, Q. Xu, K. K. Droegemeier, 2006: A three-dimensional variational single-doppler velocity retrieval method with simple conservation equation constraint. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 94, 11-26.

Gilleland, E., M. Pocernich, H. E. Brooks, 2006: Analyzing the Extreme Behavior of Large-Scale Meteorlogical Variables Found To Have Influence on Severe Storms and Tornadic Events Using Global Reanalysis Data. Extended Abstracts, 2006 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) of the American Statistical Association (ASA): Statistics for an uncertain world: Meeting global challenges, Seattle, WA, USA, American Statistical Association, 453-453.

Gochis, D., D. M. Schultz, . et al., 2005: The Water Cycle Across Scales. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 1743-1746.

Godfrey, C. M., D. J. Stensrud, L. M. Leslie, 2005: The influence of improved land surface and soil data on mesoscale model predictions. Proc. 19th Conference on Hydrology, San Diego, CA, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, 4.7.

One of the most difficult aspects in the evaluation of land surface models is the lack of observational data for accurate specification of the model initial conditions. Routine observations of fractional vegetation coverage and leaf area index (LAI) are not available at high resolution (~1 km), nor are observations of soil moisture and soil temperature. This gap in our observational capabilities seriously hampers the evaluation and improvement of land surface model parameterizations, since model errors may be related to improper initial conditions as much as to inaccuracies in the model formulations. To overcome these difficulties, two unique data sets are used. First, fractional vegetation coverage and LAI are derived from biweekly maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) composites at 1 km resolution obtained from daily observations by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) onboard National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites. Second, the Oklahoma Mesonet measures soil moisture and soil temperature at 15-minute intervals. Combined, these two data sets provide significantly improved initial conditions for land surface models and allow us to evaluate the utility of the land surface models with much greater confidence and detail than previously.

The value of these two data sources to land surface model initializations is evaluated using the Penn State-NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Forecasts that both include and neglect these unique land surface observations are compared. Results are verified against the dense network of surface observations afforded by the Oklahoma Mesonet, including surface flux data derived from special sensors available at some of the Mesonet sites. Implications for further data requirements are discussed.

Godfrey, C. M., D. J. Stensrud, L. M. Leslie, 2006: Soil temperature and moisture errors in Eta model analyses. Proc. 20th Conf. on Hydrology, Atlanta, GA, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, JP1.2.

Forecast models require accurate soil temperature and soil moisture conditions to be able to properly partition the surface heat fluxes that drive the evolution of the planetary boundary layer. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Eta model produces land surface analyses by continuously cycling soil temperature and moisture fields. In the past, these fields evolved only in response to radiation budget constraints and modeled precipitation, but NCEP recently upgraded the self-cycling process to assimilate observed precipitation. This study highlights potential problems with the land surface analysis from the Eta model by comparing 00 UTC and 12 UTC Eta model analyses of soil temperature and moisture at several depths with observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet. There are strong biases in soil temperature and there is a severe underestimation of soil moisture at all depths. There is notable improvement in the analyzed soil moisture fields after the change to a new assimilation scheme. While this change reduced the magnitude of the errors, a strong dry bias persists in the soil moisture field. A simple one-layer slab soil model reveals that these soil moisture errors alone may account for 1.0-1.5 degrees Celsius increases in maximum soil temperatures during the day and reductions in soil temperatures at night of 0.3-0.8 degrees Celsius. The remaining soil temperature errors likely stem from documented problems with the solar radiation and longwave parameterizations within the Eta model.

Available online at ://http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~cgodfrey/landsfc/.

Godfrey, C. M., D. J. Stensrud, 2008: Soil Temperature and Moisture Errors in Operational Eta Model Analyses. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 9, 367-387.

Proper partitioning of the surface heat fluxes that drive the evolution of the planetary boundary layer in numerical weather prediction models requires an accurate specification of the initial state of the land surface. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Eta Model is used to produce land surface analyses by continuously cycling soil temperature and moisture fields. These fields previously evolved only in response to radiation budget constraints and modeled precipitation, but NCEP recently upgraded the self-cycling process so that soil fields respond instead to the radiation budget and observed precipitation. A comparison of 0000 and 1200 UTC Eta Model analyses of soil temperature and moisture at several soil depths with observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet during 2004 and 2005 shows that there are strong biases in soil temperature and a severe underestimation of soil moisture at all depths. After the change to a new assimilation scheme, there is notable improvement in the magnitude of the analyzed soil moisture fields, although a strong dry bias persists in the soil moisture field. A simple one-layer slab soil model quantifies the effect of such soil moisture errors on the diurnal cycle of soil temperature and reveals that these soil moisture errors alone may account for only 1.6°C increases in predicted maximum soil temperatures during the day and temperature reductions of the same magnitude at night. The much larger remaining soil temperature errors possibly stem from documented problems with the solar radiation and longwave parameterizations within the Eta Model.

Gutowski, Jr., W. J., G. C. Hegerl, G. J. Holland, T. R. Knutson, L. O. Mearns, R. J. Stouffer, P. J. Webster, M. F. Wehner, F. W. Zwiers, H. E. Brooks, K. A. Emanuel, P. D. Komar, J. P. Kossin, K. E. Kunkel, R. McDonald, G. A. Meehl, R. J. Trapp, 2008: Causes of Observed Changes in Extremes and Projections of Future Changes. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands: Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3 Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change, T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, S. J. Hassol, A. M. Waple, W. L. Murray, Ed(s)., U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Glob, 81-116.

Hamill, T. M., R. Schneider, H. E. Brooks, G. Forbes, H. B. Bluestein, M. Steinberg, D. Melendez, R. M. Dole, 2005: The May 2003 extended tornado outbreak. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 531-542.

In May 2003 there was a very destructive extended outbreak of tornadoes across the central and eastern United States. More than a dozen tornadoes struck each day from 3 May to 11 May 2003. This outbreak caused 41 fatalities, 642 injuries, and approximately $829 million dollars of property damage. The outbreak set a record for most tornadoes ever reported in a week (334 between 4-10 May), and strong tornadoes (F2 or greater) occurred in an unbroken sequence of nine straight days. Fortunately, despite this being one of the largest extended outbreaks of tornadoes on record, it did not cause as many fatalities as in the few comparable past outbreaks, due in large measure to the warning efforts of National Weather Service, television, and private-company forecasters and the smaller number of violent (F4-F5) tornadoes. This event was also relatively predictable; the onset of the outbreak was forecast skillfully many days in advance.

An unusually persistent upper-level trough in the intermountain west and sustained low-level southerly winds through the southern Great Plains produced the extended period of tornado-favorable conditions. Three other extended outbreaks in the past 88 years were statistically comparable to this outbreak, and two short-duration events (Palm Sunday 1965 and the 1974 Superoutbreak) were comparable in the overall number of strong tornadoes. An analysis of tornado statistics and environmental conditions indicates that extended outbreaks of this character occur roughly every 10 to 100 years.

Hane, C. E., D. L. Andra Jr., K. Trammell, F. H. Carr, 2005: Development of a tool to aid in forecasting the evolution of Great Plains MCSs during late morning hours. AIRMASS 2005 Conference, Wichita, KS, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, XXXX.

Hane, C. E., D. L. Andra, Jr., J. A. Haynes, T. E. Thompson, F. H. Carr, 2005: On the Importance of Environmental Factors in Influencing the Evolution of Morning Great Plains MCS Activity during the Warm Season. Extended Abstracts, Eleventh Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, P3M.6.

Hane, C. E., J. A. Haynes, D. L. Andra, F. H. Carr, 2008: The evolution of morning convective systems over the U.S. Great Plains during the warm season. Part II: A climatology and the influence of environmental factors. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 929-944.

Mesoscale convective systems that affect a limited area within the southern plains of the United States during late morning hours during the warm season are investigated. A climatological study over a 5-yr period documents the initiation locations and times, tracks, associated severe weather, and relation to synoptic features over the lifetimes of 145 systems. An assessment is also made of system evolution in each case during the late morning. For a subset of 48 systems, vertical profiles of basic variables from Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model analyses are used to characterize the environment of each system. Scatter diagrams and discriminant analyses are used to assess which environmental variables are most promising in helping to determine which of two classes of evolutionary character each system will follow

Harasti, P. R., D. Smalley, M. Weber, C. Kessinger, Q. Xu, P. Zhang, S. Liu, T. Tsui, J. Cook, Q. Zhao, 2005: On the development of a multi-algorithm radar data quality control system at the naval research laboratory. 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, XXXX.

Heinselman, P. L., D. M. Schultz, 2006: Intraseasonal variability of summertime storms over central Arizona during 1997 and 1999. Weather and Forecasting, 21, 559-578.

Although previous climatologies over central Arizona show a summer diurnal precipitation cycle, on any given day precipitation may differ dramatically from this climatology. The purpose of this study is to investigate the intraseasonal variability of diurnal storm development over Arizona and explore the relationship to the synoptic-scale flow and Phoenix soundings during the 1997 and 1999 North American Monsoons (NAMs). Radar reflectivity mosaics constructed from Phoenix and Flagstaff Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) reflectivity data reveal six repeated storm development patterns or regimes. The diurnal evolution of each regime is illustrated by computing frequency maps of reflectivity 25 dBZ and greater during 3-h periods. These regimes are named to reflect their regional and temporal characteristics: dry regime (DR), Eastern Mountain regime (EMR), Central–Eastern Mountain regime (CEMR), Central–Eastern Mountain and Sonoran-isolated regime (CEMSIR), Central–Eastern Mountain and Sonoran regime (CEMSR), and nondiurnal regime (NDR).
Composites constructed from the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) Reanalysis Project data show that regime occurrence is related to the north–south location of the 500-hPa geopotential height ridge axis of the Bermuda High and the east–west location of the 500-hPa monsoon boundary, a boundary between dry air to the west and moist air to the east. Consequently, precipitable water (PW) from 1200 UTC Phoenix soundings is the best parameter for discriminating the six regimes.

Heinselman, P., S. Weiss, M. Coniglio, D. Andra, G. Stumpf, B. Phillips, J. Brotzge, cited 2008: 2008 Spring HWT Experiments at the NWC. [Available online at ://http://www.nwas.org/newsletters/pdf/news_october2008.pdf.]

Heinselman, P. L., D. J. Stensrud, R. M. Hluchan, P. L. Spencer, P. C. Burke, K. L. Elmore, 2008: Radar reflectivity-based estimates of mixed-layer depth. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Web, .

This study investigates the potential for estimating mixed-layer depth by taking advantage of the radial gradients in the radar reflectivity field produced by the large vertical gradients in water vapor mixing ratio that are characteristic of the mixing height. During the day, this relationship often results in a ring of maximum reflectivity observed to progress radially outward from the radar as mixed-layer depth increases. A comparison of mixed-layer depths estimated from the Oklahoma City WSR-88D (KTLX) with those estimated from a nearby 915 MHz profiler reveals that mixed-layer depths from the WSR-88D are slightly too high (up to 0.3 km) during the first three hours of the diurnal cycle, nearly unbiased midday, and slightly too low (0.2 km or less) thereafter. The procedure estimates mixed-layer depths only during the daytime hours from 1300–2300 UTC. The weather conditions for the 17 days studied were fairly quiescent, with sunny skies and light winds.

Early Release

Higgins, W., D. Ahijevych, J. Amador, A. Barros, E. Berbery, E. Caetano, R. Carbone, P. Ciesielski, R. Cifelli, M. Cortez-Vazquez, A. Douglas, M. Douglas, G. Emmanuel, C. Fairall, D. Gochis, D. Gutzler, T. Jackson, R. Johnson, C. King, T. Lang, M. Lee, D. Lettenmaier, R. Lobato, V. Magaña, J. Meitin, K. Mo, S. Nesbitt, F. Ocampo-Torres, E. Pytlak, P. Rodgers, S. Rutledge, J. Schemm, S. Schubert, A. White, C. Williams, A. Wood, R. Zamora, C. Zhang, 2006: The NAME 2004 Field Campaign and Modeling Strategy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 79-94.

Homar, V., D. J. Stensrud, J. J. Levit, D. R. Bright, 2006: Value of Human-Generated Perturbations in Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Severe Weather. Weather and Forecasting, 21, 347-363.

During the spring of 2003, the Storm Prediction Center, in partnership with the National Severe Storms Laboratory, conducted an experiment to explore the value of having operational severe weather forecasters involved in the generation of a short-range ensemble forecasting system. The idea was to create a customized ensemble to provide guidance on the severe weather threat over the following 48 h. The forecaster was asked to highlight structures of interest in the control run and, using an adjoint model, a set of perturbations was obtained and used to generate a 32-member fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) ensemble. The performance of this experimental ensemble is objectively evaluated and compared with other available forecasts (both deterministic and ensemble) using real-time severe weather reports and precipitation in the central and eastern parts of the continental United States. The experimental ensemble outperforms the operational forecasts considered in the study for episodes with moderate-to-high probability of severe weather occurrence and those with moderate probability of heavy precipitation. On the other hand, the experimental ensemble forecasts of low-probability severe weather and low precipitation amounts have less skill than the operational models, arguably due to the lack of global dispersion in a system designed to target the spread over specific areas of concern for severe weather. Results from an additional test ensemble constructed by combining automatic and manually perturbed members show the best results for numerical forecasts of severe weather for all probability values. While the value of human contribution in the numerical forecast is demonstrated, further research is needed to determine how to better use the skill and experience of the forecaster in the construction of short-range ensembles.

Homar, V., D. J. Stensrud, 2008: Subjective versus objective sensitivity estimates: application to a North African cyclogenesis. Tellus, 60A, 1064-1078.

An observing system simulation experiment is used to test and compare objective and subjective estimates of sensitivity of a forecast aspect to the initial condition (IC) fields for a case of rapidly developing cyclogenesis over the Western Mediterranean during 19–22 December 1979. The ability of sensitivity estimation methods to provide helpful guidance about where an improvement in the IC can lead to the largest forecast error reduction is particularly important to ascertain in order to guide adaptive observation campaigns.

Synthetic soundings from a 15-km reference simulation are added to an initially poor 60-km control simulation over the sensitive areas as determined by the combination of the given sensitivity estimate and a simple analysis error estimate. The ability of each sensitivity estimation method to produce an improved simulation of the cyclone is assessed.

Results show that while the sensitivity estimates perform similarly, with no significant differences among them, the subjective method yields the best overall targeting guidance. In contrast, the adjoint estimate provides the least accurate targeting guidance for this particular case and analysis error estimate. This suggests that subjective sensitivity estimation methods are able to compete with or even improve upon the objective estimation method for this case of cyclogenesis over the Western Mediterranean.

Horgan, K. L., D. M. Schultz, R. H. Johns, S. F. Corfidi, J. E. Hales, 2006: A five-year climatology of elevated severe convective storms in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Preprints, Severe Local Storms Special Symposium, Atlanta, GA, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, P1.22.

Available online at ://http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/horganetal2006.pdf.

Horgan, K. L., D. M. Schultz, R. H. Johns, J. E. Hales, S. F. Corfidi, 2007: A five-year climatology of elevated severe convective storms in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 1031-1044.

James, M. R., R. D. Palmer, T.-Y. Yu, S. M. Torres, R. J. Doviak, D. S. Zrnic, 2005: Implementation of refractivity retrieval from ground clutter using the S-band KOUN radar. Preprints, 32nd International Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, 4R.7.

Johnson, E. V., E. R. Mansell, 2006: Three dimensional lightning mapping of the central Oklahoma supercell on 26 May 2004. Extended Abstracts, Second Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, Atlanta, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, 6.5.

Three-dimensional lightning mapping observations from the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (OK-LMA) were used to analyze charge structure of a splitting supercell on 26 May 2004 during the Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning Experiment (TELEX). The OK-LMA was used to evaluate cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes reported by the National Lightning Detection Network's (NLDN). Each NLDN flash between 2300 UTC and 2310 UTC was classified as either a CG or an intra-cloud (IC) flash using LMA-inferred charge structure. The LMA analysis of the charge structure supports charge structure for 23% of the positive CGs. Most of the negative NLDN flashes that were analyzed were not confirmed by the LMA.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/Annual2006/techprogram/paper_104352.htm.

Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, J. J. Levit, M. E. Baldwin, D. R. Bright, 2006: Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004. Weather and Forecasting, 21, 167-181.

Convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model were evaluated during the 2004 Storm Prediction Center–National Severe Storms Laboratory Spring Program in a simulated severe weather forecasting environment. The utility of the WRF forecasts was assessed in two different ways. First, WRF output was used in the preparation of daily experimental human forecasts for severe weather. These forecasts were compared with corresponding predictions made without access to WRF data to provide a measure of the impact of the experimental data on the human decision-making process. Second, WRF output was compared directly with output from current operational forecast models. Results indicate that human forecasts showed a small, but measurable, improvement when forecasters had access to the high-resolution WRF output and, in the mean, the WRF output received higher ratings than the operational Eta Model on subjective performance measures related to convective initiation, evolution, and mode. The results suggest that convection-allowing models have the potential to provide a value-added benefit to the traditional guidance package used by severe weather forecasters.

Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, J. J. Levit, G. W. Carbin, C. S. Schwartz, M. L. Weisman, K. K. Droegemeier, D. B. Weber, K. W. Thomas, 2007: Some practical considerations for the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP: How much resolution is enough?. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 3B.5.

Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, J. J. Levit, G. W. Carbin, C. S. Schwartz, M. L. Weisman, K. K. Droegemeier, D. B. Weber, K. W. Thomas, 2008: Some practical considerations regarding horizontal resolution in the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP. Weather and Forecasting, 23, 931-952.

During the 2005 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment two different highresolution
configurations of the WRF-ARW model were used to produce 30 h forecasts five days
a week for a total of 7 weeks. These configurations used the same physical parameterizations and
the same input dataset for initial and boundary conditions, differing primarily in their spatial resolution.
The first set of runs used 4 km horizontal grid spacing with 35 vertical levels while the
second used 2 km grid spacing and 51 vertical levels.
Output from these daily forecasts is analyzed to assess the numerical forecast sensitivity to
spatial resolution in the upper end of the convection-allowing range of grid-spacing. The analysis
is based on a combination of visual comparison, systematic subjective verification conducted during
the Spring Experiment, and objective metrics based largely on the mean diurnal cycle of simulated
reflectivity and precipitation fields. Additional insight is gained by examining the size
distributions of individual reflectivity and precipitation entities and by comparing forecasts of
mesoscyclone characteristics in the two sets of forecasts.
In general, the 2 km forecasts provide more detailed presentations of convective activity, but
there appears to be little, if any, forecast skill on the scales where the added details emerge. On
the scales where both model configurations show higher levels of skill - the scale of mesoscale
convective features - the forecasts appear to provide comparable utility for severe weather forecasters.
These results suggest that 4 km grid spacing is a good place to start for the first generation
of 1-2 day convection-permitting operational NWP.

Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, J. J. Levit, G. W. Carbin, C. S. Schwartz, M. L. Weisman, K. K. Droegemeier, 2007: Some practical considerations for the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP: How much resolution is enough?. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 3B.5. [Available from John S. Kain, NSSL, 120 David L. Boren Blvd, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

During the 2005 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment (formerly known as the SPC/NSSL Spring Program) two different high-resolution configurations of the WRF-ARW model were used to produce 30 h forecasts five days a week for a total of 7 weeks. These configurations used the same physical parameterizations and the same input dataset for initial and boundary conditions, differing primarily in their spatial resolution. The first set of runs used 4 km horizontal grid spacing with 35 vertical levels while the second used 2 km grid spacing and 51 vertical levels.

This setup provided an unprecedented opportunity to assess the sensitivity to spatial resolution in the upper end of the convection-allowing range of grid-spacing, during many different severe-weather events. Of particular interest was whether the ~ ten fold increase in computing expense required by the 2 km runs could be justified by added value in the higher resolution forecasts. In this study, we examine and compare these forecasts from several different perspectives. First, we provide a visual examination of simulated reflectivity fields from selected convective events, highlighting the differences that might be detected by an operational forecaster – differences between the two model runs and the ways that both differ from observed reflectivity fields. Next, we present the results of subjective assessments of forecast skill, based on daily ratings assigned by panels of experts during the Spring Experiment. Then, we move on to objective measures of skill. These measures are based on time-averaged behavior characteristics of the models rather than selected points in time and space. For example, we examine the mean diurnal trends of simulated reflectivity and accumulated precipitation fields, as compared with observations. We compare the size distributions of individual reflectivity and precipitation entities, or “storms”, and we look at measures of storm rotation. Further, we look at traditional verification statistics such as equitable-threat and bias scores.

In general, we find that meteorological fields from the two model configurations behave much more like each other than like observations. The 2 km forecasts provide more detailed structures and appear to provide more realistic depictions of supercell-like storm configurations, both of which are intriguing to severe weather forecasters, but neither configuration shows much skill in predicting these small-scale features. On the scales where they show higher levels of skill – the scale of mesoscale convective features – the forecasts are often quite similar. The implications of these results, i.e., the value added by doubling resolution in this context, will be discussed at the conference.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124513.pdf.

Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, S. R. Dembek, J. J. Levit, D. R. Bright, J. L. Case, M. C. Coniglio, A. R. Dean, R. Sobash, 2008: Severe-weather forecast guidance from the first generation of large domain convection-allowing models: Challenges and opportunities. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Savannah, GA, USA, Amer. Meteor Soc., CD-ROM, 12.1. [Available from John Kain, NSSL, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, 2006: The value of collaboration between researchers and forecasters in the development of NWP models. Preprints, The 4th Joint Korea-U. S. Workshop on Mesoscale Observation, Data Assimilation, and Modeling for Severe Weather, Seoul, Republic of Korea, Korea Science and Engineering Foundation/U.S. National Science F, 6.5. [Available from John Kain, NSSL, 120 David L. Boren Blvd, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Kain, J. S., S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, 2006: The value of collaboration between researchers and forecasters in the development of NWP models. Preprints, The 4th Joint Korea-U. S. Workshop on Mesoscale Observation, Data Assimilation, and Modeling for Severe Weather, Seoul, Republic of Korea, Korea Science and Engineering Foundation/U.S. National Science F, 6.5. [Available from John Kain, NSSL, 120 David L. Boren Blvd, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Kanak, K. M., J. M. Straka, D. M. Schultz, 2006: Simulations of mammatus-like clouds and comparison with observations, cloud based detrainment instability theory and Scorer's conjectures. Preprints, 12th Conf. Cloud Physics, Madison, WI, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, P1.57.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/Madison2006/techprogram/paper_112359.htm.

Killeen, T. J., M. W. Douglas, T. Consiglio, P. M. Jorgensen, J. F. Mejia, 2007: Dry Spots and Wet Spots in the Andean hotspot. Journal of Biogeography, 34, 1357-1373.

Aim To explain the relationship between topography, prevailing winds and precipitation in order to identify regions with contrasting precipitation regimes and then compare floristic similarity among regions in the context of climate change.

Location Eastern slope of the tropical Andes, South America.

Methods We used information sources in the public domain to identify the relationship between geology, topography, prevailing wind patterns and precipitation. Areas with contrasting precipitation regimes were identified and compared for their floristic similarity.

Results We identify spatially separate super-humid, humid and relatively dry regions on the eastern slope of the Andes and show how they are formed by the interaction of prevailing winds, diurnally varying atmospheric circulations and the local topography of the Andes. One key aspect related to the formation of these climatically distinct regions is the South American low-level jet (SALLJ), a relatively steady wind gyre that flows pole-ward along the eastern slopes of the Andes and is part of the gyre associated with the Atlantic trade winds that cross the Amazon Basin. The strongest winds of the SALLJ occur near the 'elbow of the Andes' at 18° S. Super-humid regions with mean annual precipitation greater than 3500 mm, are associated with a 'favourable' combination of topography, wind-flow orientation and local air circulation that favours ascent at certain hours of the day. Much drier regions, with mean annual precipitation less than 1500 mm, are associated with 'unfavourable' topographic orientation with respect to the mean winds and areas of reduced cloudiness produced by local breezes that moderate the cloudiness. We show the distribution of satellite-estimated frequency of cloudiness and offer hypotheses to explain the occurrence of these patterns and to explain regions of anomalously low precipitation in Bolivia and northern Peru. Floristic analysis shows that overall similarity among all circumscribed regions of this study is low; however, similarity among super-humid and humid regions is greater when compared with similarity among dry regions. Spatially separate areas with humid and super-humid precipitation regimes show similarity gradients that are correlated with latitude (proximity) and precipitation.

Main conclusions The distribution of precipitation on the eastern slope of the Andes is not simply correlated with latitude, as is often assumed, but is the result of the interplay between wind and topography. Understanding the phenomena responsible for producing the observed precipitation patterns is important for mapping and modelling biodiversity, as well as for interpreting both past and future climate scenarios and the impact of climate change on biodiversity. Super-humid and dry regions have topographic characteristics that contribute to local climatic stability and may represent ancestral refugia for biodiversity; these regions are a conservation priority due to their unique climatic characteristics and the biodiversity associated with those characteristics.

Koch, S. E., B. S. Ferrier, M. T. Stoelinga, E. Szoke, S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, 2005: The use of simulated radar reflectivity fields in the diagnosis of mesoscale phenomena from high-resolution WRF model forecasts. Preprints, 11th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Albuquerque, NM, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, J4J.7. [Available from Steve Koch, ESRL, Boulder, CO, USA.]

The use of composite radar reflectivity fields (i.e., the maximum reflectivity in the grid column) as a model output product has become increasingly popular recently as a means for display of high-resolution numerical model fields, mainly for convective weather scenarios. This past winter, simulated radar reflectivity fields were produced for 5-km WRF model forecasts during the DTC (Developmental Testbed Center) Winter Forecast Experiment (DWFE). In addition, model reflectivity fields from 2-km and 4-km WRF forecasts were utilized during the annual Storm Prediction Center/National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Spring Program. The reflectivity product offers significant advantages over traditional precipitation forecast displays, including the obvious fact that radar reflectivity is easier to verify in real time by directly comparing with readily available, observed composite reflectivity products. It has also recently become possible to compare model forecast radar reflectivity fields to a high quality, three-dimensional, national radar reflectivity mosaic product on a 1-km Cartesian grid being developed at NSSL. The chief advantage of the model reflectivity product appears to be that it allows one to more easily see detailed mesoscale and near-stormscale structures capable of being forecast by finer resolution models, such as lake-effect snowbands, the structure of deep convection, and frontal precipitation bands. Examples demonstrating this advantage will be presented at the conference for a variety of mesoscale phenomena.

Before one can have confidence in the meaning of simulated reflectivity factor fields for interpretation of mesoscale models, it is important to understand how they are determined. The equivalent reflectivity factor is computed from the forecast mixing ratios of grid-resolved hydrometeor species, assuming Rayleigh scattering by spherical particles of known density and an exponential size distribution. During the DWFE, perceptible differences appeared in the general nature of the simulated reflectivity fields from the two WRF models, most notably a greater coverage of reflectivity below ~25 dBZ and higher maximum reflectivities in the case of the NMM compared to the ARW for winter storms. However, when attention focused on severe convective weather regions during the Spring Program, the NMM produced noticeably lower values of maximum reflectivity compared to the ARW versions, with the NMM values limited to less than 50 dBZ. These differences are mostly explained by the differences in physics packages, particularly the way various liquid water and ice species are treated in the model microphysics schemes. The WRF Single-Moment 5-class (“WSM5”) microphysics scheme used for the WRF-ARW model during DWFE treats the cloud condensate in the form of cloud water and cloud ice as a combined category, and precipitation in the form of rain and snow also as a combined category. The WRF-NMM used the Ferrier microphysics scheme, which accounts for four classes of hydrometeors. The most important difference between the two microphysical parameterizations concerns the assumed size distributions for snow: for the same snow mass content, differences in radar reflectivity will scale with differences in parameterized snow number concentrations between the two microphysical schemes.

It is also important to understand that it is not possible to make a strictly valid comparison between composite reflectivity computed from a model grid point and that measured by scanning radar. Owing to the fact that the radar resolution degrades with distance from the transmitter, that scanning radars cannot detect hydrometeors in the lower atmosphere due to the earth's curvature effect, and numerous other considerations (including ground clutter near the radar, anomalous propagation, etc.), any attempt to make direct comparisons between the model simulated reflectivity fields and radar measurements is replete with problems, though the NSSL product is experimenting with novel ways to overcome these problems.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/97032.pdf.

Kong, F., M. XUE, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, D. Weber, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, J. Du, 2007: Preliminary analysis on the real-time storm-scale ensemble forecasts produced as a part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2007 Spring Experiment.. Preprints, Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc, CD-ROM, 3B.2.

Kong, F., M. Xue, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, D. B. Weber, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, J. Du, 2007: Preliminary analysis on the real-time storm-scale ensemble forecasts produced as a part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2007 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 3B.2. [Available from Fanyou Kong, CAPS, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

A real-time storm-scale WRF-ARW-based ensemble forecast system at 4-km resolution is being developed at CAPS and will be run daily for 33 hours as part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) 2007 Spring Experiment, for a domain covering the eastern 2/3 of the continental U.S. This pilot system consists of ten hybrid perturbation members that consist of a combination of perturbed initial conditions and various microphysics and PBL physics parameterization schemes. The design considerations and the scientific questions that the system intends to address will be presented and discussed.

In addition to traditional ensemble products widely used in large-scale and mesoscale ensemble forecasting systems, such as the mean, spread, and probability of selected forecast fields, emphases are given to the generation and assessment of products specific to storm-scale, cloud-resolving ensemble forecasts. Such products include but are not limited to: probability of storm type (e.g., linear vs. cellular), large hail probability, icing potential (high super-cooled water content probability), damaging wind gusts at surface, reflectivity exceedance, updraft rotation, and supercell thunderstorm detection in the form of probability or joint probability for Supercell Composite Parameter, Significant Tornado Parameter, Supercell Detection Index, and Updraft Helicity. Many of these products are created in real time through existing capabilities in the SPC version of the N-AWIPS system for the use and evaluation by researchers and operational forecasters during the experiment. The statistical consistency of the ensemble system, in terms of spread-error relation, is assessed using the two-months of data after the experiment. The performance of the ensemble forecasts, in terms of quantitative skill scores, is compared with the NCEP operational SREF and 12 km NAM forecasts, and a CAPS 2-km WRF forecast over the same domain and period. Skill scores for sub-groups of the ensemble will be examined to assess the effectiveness of initial condition and physics perturbations.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124667.pdf.

Koracin, D., J. Businger, C. Dorman, J. Lewis, 2005: Formation, evolution, and dissipation of coastal sea fog. Bound.-Layer Meteorol., 117, 447-478.

Koracin, D., D. Leipper, J. Lewis, 2005: Modeling sea fog on the U. S. California coast during a hot spell event. Geofizika, 22, 59-82.

Koracin, D., J. Businger, C. Dorman, J. Lewis, 2005: Formation, evolution, and dissipation of coastal sea fog. Bound. - Layer Meteorol., 117, 447-478.

Koracin, D., D. Liepper, J. Lewis, 2005: Modeling sea fog on the U. S. California coast during a hot spell event. Geofizika, 22, 59-82.

Krehbiel, P., W. Rison, R. Thomas, D. MacGorman, W. D. Rust, T. Marshall, M. Stolzenburg, 2006: A review of lightning phenomenology in thunderstorms. Preprints, 2nd Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, Atlanta, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 6.2.

Kuhlman, K. M., C. L. Ziegler, E. R. Mansell, D. R. MacGorman, J. M. Straka, 2006: Numerically Simulated Electrification and Lightning of the 29 June 2000 STEPS Supercell Storm. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 2734-2757.

A three-dimensional dynamic cloud model incorporating airflow dynamics, microphysics, and thunderstorm electrification mechanisms is used to simulate the first 3 h of the 29 June 2000 supercell from the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS). The 29 June storm produced large flash rates, predominately positive cloud-to-ground lightning, large hail, and an F1 tornado. Four different simulations of the storm are made, each one using a different noninductive (NI) charging parameterization. The charge structure, and thus lightning polarity, of the simulated storm is sensitive to the treatment of cloud water dependence in the different NI charging schemes. The results from the simulations are compared with observations from STEPS, including balloon-borne electric field meter soundings and flash locations from the Lightning Mapping Array. For two of the parameterizations, the observed “inverted” tripolar charge structure is well approximated by the model. The polarity of the ground flashes is opposite that of the lowest charge region of the inverted tripole in both the observed storm and the simulations. Total flash rate is well correlated with graupel volume, updraft volume, and updraft mass flux. However, there is little correlation between total flash rate and maximum updraft speed. Based on the correlations found in both the observed and simulated storm, the total flash rate appears to be most representative of overall storm intensity.

Available online at ://http://www.ametsoc.org.

Kuhlman, K., D. MacGorman, D. Rust, P. Krehbiel, B. Rison, 2007: Lightning in the anvil region of a supercell storm. Preprints, 13th International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, Beijing, China, IUGG/Commission on Atmospheric Electricity, PS5-8.

The Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning Experiment (TELEX) took place in central Oklahoma during the 2003 and 2004 convective seasons to study the lightning, dynamics and microphysics of thunderstorms. One storm from this field project, a high-precipitation tornadic supercell occurred on 29 May 2004. In this storm, the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array detected lightning extending over one hundred kilometers away from the core of the supercell. Lightning is known to occur in the anvil region of supercells; typically this lightning is initiated in the core of the storm and extends out through the anvil. In the 29 May 2004 storm, however, some flashes actually initiated in the anvil region and the subsequent leaders progressed back towards the core of the storm. Some of these flashes were negative cloud-to-ground flashes that initiated over 50 km away from the core and struck ground beneath the anvil close to the initiation point. It appears that interaction between the anvil of this supercell and an anvil of opposite polarity from a weaker left-moving cell to the north was responsible for initiating this lightning.

Kuhlman, K., D. MacGorman, M. Biggerstaff, W. D. Rust, T. Schuur, C. Ziegler, P. Krehbiel, 2006: Lightning and radar observatons of the 29 May 2004 supercell during TELEX. Preprints, 2nd Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, Atlanta, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 3.3.

Kuhlman, K. M., E. R. Mansell, C. L. Ziegler, M. I. Biggerstaff, D. R. MacGorman, D. C. Dowell, 2008: EnKF data assimilation and dual-Doppler analysis of the 29 May 2004 Geary, Oklahoma supercell. Proc. 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Savannah, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, P5.1.

On 29 May 2004, a long-track supercell storm moved across Oklahoma producing multiple tornadoes and numerous reports of large hail. Two mobile, C-band, Doppler (SMART-R) radars collected data in 2.5 min volume scans almost continuously for more than three hours. Dual-Doppler analyses were completed for select times using a1 km grid spacing and a 2-pass Barnes objective analysis in the interpolation of radial velocities and reflectivity to a Cartesian grid following Majcen et al (2008).

The focus of the radar data assimilation for this study is to retrieve the state of the storm rather than to develop forecast applications. For this purpose, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique is used to assimilate reflectivity and/or radial velocity data into the model from SMART radar at approximately five minute intervals. Comparisons of the simulations employing EnKF to a simulation without data assimilation and to the dual-Doppler syntheses at various times of the storm's life-cycle will be presented. These results will be used to quantify the agreement between the simulation and the observations providing background such that future studies may use the simulations in order to to retrieve unobserved fields.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/24SLS/techprogram/paper_142031.htm.

Kunkel, K. E., P. Bromirski, H. E. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A. V. Douglas, D. R. Easterling, K. A. Emanuel, P. Y. Groisman, G. J. Holland, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, P. D. Komar, D. H. Levinson, R. L. Smith, J. Allan, R. Assel, S. Changnon, J. Lawrimore, K. B. Liu, T. Peterson, 2008: Observed Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3 Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change, T. M. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, S. J. Hassol, A. M. Waple, W. L. Murray, Ed(s)., U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Glob, 35-80.

Lengyel, M. M., H. E. Brooks, R. L. Holle, M. A. Cooper, 2005: Lightning casualties and their proximity to surrounding cloud-to-ground lightning. Preprints, 14th Symposium on Education, San Diego, CA, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, P1.35.

Lewis, J., 2005: Roots of ensemble forecasting. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 1865-1885.

Lewis, J., R. Maddox, C. Crisp, 2006: Architect of sever storms forecasting: Colonel Robert C. Miller. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, .

Lewis, J. M., 2007: Use of a mixed-layer model to investigate problems in operational prediction of return flow. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 2610-2628.

Lewis, J. M., 2007: A Forecaster's Story: Robert H. Johns. Electronic Journal of Severe Storm Meteorology, 2, 1-19.

The stages in the life of a severe storms forecaster, Robert H. Johns, are reconstructed from information in a series of interviews with him. The traditional interview format, question-and-answer mode, has been converted to a first-person narrative that leads to a more-continuous train of thought.
The storyline begins by describing Johns’ entrainment into meteorology as a youngster. By virtue of his contact and conversations with farmers in rural Indiana, he became interested in weather’s impact on the farmers and their crop yields. Early stimulation also came from a challenging weather project in the 6th grade and reading George Stewart’s novel Storm. From these experiences, Bob Johns decided to pursue a science career in service to society. This service took the form of work as a weather forecaster for the United States Weather Bureau (USWB)/National Weather Service (NWS).
The arduous path to severe storms forecaster is traced by highlighting his youthful experiences, his academic training, and the stepwise progression from student trainee to lead forecaster at the Severe Local Storms (SELS) unit of the USWB/NWS.

Available online at ://http://http://ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/article/view/29/32.

Lewis, J. M., S. Lakshmivarahan, 2008: Sasaki's Pivotal Contribution: Calculus of Variations Applied to Weather Map Analysis. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 3553-3567.

Yoshikazu Sasaki developed a variational method of data assimilation, a cornerstone of modern-day analysis and prediction in meteorology. Fundamentally, he formulated data assimilation as a constrained minimization problem with equality constraints. The generation of this idea is tracked by analyzing his education and research at the University of Tokyo in the immediate post-WWII period. Despite austere circumstances — including limited financial support for education, poor living conditions, and a lack of educational resources — Sasaki was highly motivated and overcame these obstacles on his path to developing this innovative method of weather map analysis. We follow the stages of his intellectual development where information comes from access to his early publications, oral histories, and letters of reminiscence.
It has been argued that Sasaki’s unique contribution to meteorological data assimilation stems from his deterministic view of the problem – a view founded on the principles of variational mechanics. Sasaki’s approach to the problem is compared and contrasted with the stochastic view that was pioneered by Arnt Eliassen. Both of these optimal approaches are viewed in the context of the pragmatic/operational objective analysis schemes that were developed in the 1950s – 1960s. Finally, current-day methods, 3D-Var and 4D-Var, are linked to the optimal methods of Eliassen and Sasaki.

Lewis, J. M., 2008: Book Review: The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson's Dream. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 1178-1179.

Lewis, J. M., S. Lakshmivarahan, S. Dhall, 2006: Dynamic Data Assimilation: A Least Squares Approach. Cambridge University Press, 654 pp.

NOAA Outstanding Publication Award in 2006

Lewis, J., 2008: Smagorinsky's GFDL; Building the team. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 1339-1353.

Joseph Smagorinsky (1924 - 2005) was a forceful and powerful figure in meteorology during the last half of the twentieth century. He served as director of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for nearly thirty years (1955 - 1983); and during his tenure as director, this organization substantially contributed to advances in weather forecasting and climate diagnostics/prediction. The purpose of this research is to explore Smagorinsky’s philosophy of science and style of management that were central to the success of GFDL. Information comes from his early scientific publications, personal letters and notes in the possession of his family, several oral histories, and letters of reminiscence from scientists who worked within and outside GFDL.
The principal results of the study are: (1) early inspiration and development of Smagorinsky’s scientific philosophy came from his contact with Jule Charney and Harry Wexler, (2) his doctoral dissertation ideally prepared him for appointment as director of the U. S. Weather Bureau’s long-range numerical prediction project in 1955 — the General Circulation Research Section [later renamed GFDL], (3) he masterfully assembled a team of researchers to attack the challenging problem of general circulation modeling, and (4) he exhibited an authoritarian style of rule tempered by protection of the scientists from disrupting outside influence while celebrating the elitism and esprit de corps that characterized the laboratory.
A list of Smagorinsky’s management principles is found in the Appendix. Several of these tenets have been interspersed in the main body of the paper in support of actions he took at GFDL.

Liang, X. Z., M. XU, K. E. Kunkel, G. A. Grell, J. S. Kain, 2007: Regional Climate Model Simulation of U.S.–Mexico Summer Precipitation Using the Optimal Ensemble of Two Cumulus Parameterizations. Journal of Climate, 20, 5201-5207.

Liu, S., C. Qiu, Q. Xu, P. Zhang, J. Gao, A. Shao, 2005: An improved method for Doppler wind and thermodynamic retrievals. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 22, 90-102.

Liu, S., Q. Xu, P. Zhang, 2005: Quality control of Doppler velocities contaminated by migrating birds. Part II: Bayes identification and probability tests. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 22, 1114-1121.

Liu, L., P. Zhang, Q. Xu, F. Kong, S. Liu, 2005: Retrieval model of dual linear polarization radar observations from simulation model output. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 22, 711-719., 22, 711-719.

Liu, S., M. Xue, Q. Xu, 2007: Using wavelet analysis to detect tornadoes from doppler radar radial-velocity observations. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 24, 344-359.

Lund, N., D. MacGorman, D. Rust, T. Schuur, P. Krehbiel, W. Rison, T. Hamlin, J. Straka, M. Biggerstaff, 2007: Relationship between lightning location and polarimetric radar signatures in an MCS. Preprints, 13th International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, Beijing, China, IUGG/Commission on Atmospheric Electricity, PS5-2.

The relationship of lightning initiation and structure to the storm microphysics and structure depicted by polarimetric radar has been analyzed for a small mesoscale convective system (MCS) that occurred on 19 June 2004 during the Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning Experiment (TELEX). Horizontal reflectivity (Z), differential reflectivity (Zdr), specific differential phase (Kdp) and correlation coefficient (ρHV) data were gathered by a 10-cm, polarimetric radar located in Norman, Oklahoma. Three-dimensional lightning structure was mapped by the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (OK-LMA), and ground strike points were mapped by the United States National Lightning Detection Network. OK-LMA data were processed to group mapped points into flashes and to determine the initiation location of each flash that contained more than 10 mapped points. The initiation location was calculated by sequentially eliminating outliers among the first 10 points that occurred in a flash, with no fewer than 5 points being used in the final initiation location. The initiation location and mapped points for each flash were superimposed on polarimetric radar data in order to investigate lightning relationships with storm structure. The lightning initiation points tended to cluster together in one of two altitude ranges and were almost all in the convective line. Initial results show a relationship between the lightning initiation locations and radar signatures in both Z and Kdp. In the lower altitude range, between 3 and 5 km MSL, initiation locations tended to cluster around updraft cores, in regions characterized by a transition in Z from 50 to 55 dBZ and a transition in Kdp from 0.4 to 0.5 deg/km. In the upper range, between 8 and 10 km MSL, initiation points tended to cluster directly above the updrafts, in regions characterized by a transition in Z from 42.5 to 47.5 dBZ and in Kdp from 0.075 to 0.150 deg/km. The two-layer nature of the initiation points is consistent with grossly tripolar structure of the charge distribution involved in lightning in the convective line. Also, the horizontal pattern of the initiation locations has a quasi-periodic horizontal structure which is 180 degrees out of phase with the maximum updraft locations for the lower region and is in phase with the maximum updraft locations for the upper region. There were also a few flash initiations within the stratiform region, possibly associated with decaying cells. The values of Z and Kdp associated with these initiation points were smaller than in the convective line, but as in the convective line, the initiations also occurred along gradients, above a local maximum, in these parameters.

Lund, N., D. R. MacGorman, W. D. Rust, T. J. Schuur, P. Krehbiel, W. Rison, T. Hamlin, J. Straka, M. Biggerstaff, 2008: Relationship between lightning location and polarimetric radar signatures in an MCS. Preprints, 3rd Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, New Orleans, LA, USA, American Meteorological Society, P1.5.

MacGorman, D. R., W. D. Rust, P. Krehbiel, W. Rison, E. Bruning, K. Wiens, 2005: The electrical structure of two supercell storms during STEPS. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 2583-2607.

Balloon soundings were made through two supercell storms during the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS) in summer 2000. Instruments measured the vector electric field, temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and balloon location. For the first time, soundings penetrated both the strong updraft and the rainy downdraft region of the same supercell storm. In both storms, the strong updraft had fewer vertically separated charge regions than found near the rainy downdraft, and the updraft's lowest charge was elevated higher, its bottom being near the 40-dBZ boundary of the weak-echo vault. The simpler, elevated charge structure is consistent with the noninductive graupel-ice mechanism dominating charge generation in updrafts. In the weak-echo vault, the amount of frozen precipitation and the time for particle interactions are too small for significant charging. Inductive charging mechanisms and lightning may contribute to the additional charge regions found at lower altitudes outside the updraft. Lightning mapping showed that the in-cloud channels of a positive ground flash could be in any one of the three vertically separated positive charge regions found outside the updraft, but were in the middle region, at 6-8 km MSL, for most positive ground flashes. Our data are consistent with the electrical structure of these storms having been inverted in polarity from that of most storms elsewhere. We hypothesize that the observed inverted-polarity cloud flashes and positive ground flashes were caused by inverted-polarity storm structure, possibly due to a larger than usual rime accretion rate for graupel in a strong updraft.

MacGorman, D., D. Rust, T. Schuur, M. Biggerstaff, J. Straka, C. Ziegler, E. Mansell, P. Krehbiel, W. Rison, T. Hamlin, L. Carey, E. Bruning, K. Kuhlman, N. Ramig, C. Payne, 2005: Lightning Relative to Storm Structure and Microphysics in TELEX. Polarimetric radar and electrical structure of a multicell storm. Preprints, 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, 10R.7.

MacGorman, D., K. Kuhlman, D. Rust, M. Biggerstaff, T. Schuur, J. Straka, P. Krehbiel, B. Rison, L. Carey, 2007: Lightning and electrical structure of a heavy-precipitation supercell storm during TELEX. Preprints, 13th International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, Beijing, China, IUGG/Commission on Atmospheric Electricity, OS5-1.

The Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning Experiment (TELEX) observed a heavy-precipitation (HP) supercell storm in central Oklahoma on 29 May 2004. In a HP supercell storm, the initial location of the mesocyclone, which is the parent rotation of tornadoes, is embedded well within the precipitation of the storm, instead of being on the edge of the storm (as in classic and low-precipitation supercell storms). Two 5-cm wavelength mobile Doppler radars were positioned near the storm and collected volume scans every 3 minutes for 3 h beginning as the storm became supercellular. The storm had supercell characteristics for this entire period. The Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array provided three-dimensional data throughout the storm’s supercellular stage and provided two-dimensional data from the time of storm initiation in western Oklahoma. A 10-cm wavelength polarimetric radar also provided data for much of this period.
Lightning flash rates became extraordinarily large as the storm evolved into a supercell and its motion turned rightward. Flash rates increased again (to an estimated peak value of almost 500 flashes per minute) shortly before the storm produced a tornado rated F2 on the Fujita scale. During this period, an upward pulse in lightning density extended as high as 18 km MSL in a plume extending above the equilibrium level, and the region of lightning activity pulsed eastward far into the anvil, up to 150 km from the western edge of the storm. A series of minimums in the plan projection of lightning density (i.e., lightning holes) formed just above the bounded weak echo region. A dual-Doppler synthesis of wind during one volume scan shows the lightning hole was co-located with large vertical wind speeds in the rotating updraft. The hole apparently occurred because precipitation particles had little time to grow and gain charge in the strong updraft before they were lifted to upper regions of the storm and advected outward by flow from the diverging updraft. Cloud-to-ground lightning activity in and near heavy precipitation was dominated initially by negative ground flashes, but during part of the supercell phase, evolved to become dominated by positive ground flashes. Lightning mapping data suggest that, when positive ground flashes dominated, the vertical polarity of the storm’s electrical structure was inverted from the usual polarity.

MacGorman, D., C. L. Ziegler, E. Mansell, W. Beasley, B. Fiedler, 2005: Retrieval and assimilation of storm characteristics from both in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning data to improve mesoscale model forecasts. Final report to the Office of Naval Research (ONR Grant # N00014-00-1-0525) 1, 54 pp.

MacGorman, D. R., W. D. Rust, T. J. Schuur, M. I. Biggerstaff, J. M. Straka, C. L. Ziegler, E. R. Mansell, E. C. Bruning, K. M. Kuhlman, N. R. Lund, N. S. Biermann, C. Payne, L. D. Carey, P. R. Krehbiel, W. Rison, K. B. Eack, W. H. Beasley, 2008: TELEX: The Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning Experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 997-1013.

The field program of the Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning Experiment (TELEX) took place in central Oklahoma, May–June 2003 and 2004. It aimed to improve understanding of the interrelationships among microphysics, kinematics, electrification, and lightning in a broad spectrum of storms, particularly squall lines and storms whose electrical structure is inverted from the usual vertical polarity. The field program was built around two permanent facilities: the KOUN polarimetric radar and the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array. In addition, balloon-borne electric-field meters and radiosondes were launched together from a mobile laboratory to measure electric fields, winds, and standard thermodynamic parameters inside storms. In 2004, two mobile C-band Doppler radars provided high-resolution coordinated volume scans, and another mobile facility provided the environmental soundings required for modeling studies. Data were obtained from twenty-two storm episodes, including several small isolated thunderstorms, mesoscale convective systems, and supercell storms. Examples are presented from three storms. A heavy-precipitation supercell storm on 29 May 2004 produced greater than 3 flashes per second for 1.5 h. Holes in the lightning density formed and dissipated sequentially in the very strong updraft and bounded weak echo region of the mesocyclone. In a small squall line on 19 June 2004, most lightning flashes in the stratiform region were initiated in or near strong updrafts in the convective line and involved positive charge in the upper part of the radar bright band. In a small thunderstorm on 29 June 2004, lightning activity began as polarimetric signatures of graupel first appeared near lightning initiation regions.

Available online at ://http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0477/89/7/pdf/i1520-0477-89-7-997.pdf.

MacGorman, D. R., K. M. Kuhlman, E. C. Bruning, W. D. Rust, P. R. Krehbiel, M. I. Biggerstaff, 2008: Small, continual lightning activity in the overshooting turret of supercell storms. Proc. 3rd Annual Conference on Applications of Lightning Data, New Orleans, LA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 4.7.

Several supercell storms have occurred within the region in which the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (OKLMA) maps all three spatial dimensions of lightning. These storms span much of the supercell spectrum -- from non-tornadic storms to storms that produced strong tornadoes and from low-precipitation to heavy-precipitation morphologies. As noted by several studies, supercell storms tend to have much larger flash rates than ordinary isolated thunderstorms; maximum rates are typically hundreds of flashes per minute, even when considering only flashes that produce at least ten mapped points per flash. However, the OKLMA indicates that most of the flashes occurring within the main body of the storm during periods of high flash rates have quite small spatial extents, many with a long dimension of 5 km or less. Not usually included in these flash rates are a large number that appear to be isolated points (sometimes called singletons), each failing criteria of distance or time for associating it with other points in a flash. Often determining whether these isolated points are artifacts of the OKLMA is difficult, but in the overshooting top, they present a coherent pattern that appears plausible. They are distributed throughout a cap having horizontal dimensions comparable to that of the overshooting top and sitting near or on the upper surface. They occur continually, though they are too far apart in time or space to be associated in a flash with each other. A comparison with high-resolution reflectivity data for one storm observed by the two mobile 5-cm wavelength SMART-R radars shows that these isolated points were most concentrated near the top of the 40 dBZ echo in the overshooting turret, but some occurred higher, in regions of small reflectivity or just above the overshooting top. These points may be similar to the continual lightning noted by Bill Taylor in the upper region of a severe storm in the early 1980s.

Available online at ://http://www.ametsoc.org.

MacGorman, D. R., T. Mansell, C. Ziegler, J. Straka, 2008: Detailed storm simulations by a numerical cloud model with electrification and lightning parameterizations. Preprints, 20th International Lightning Detection Conference, Tucson, AZ, USA, Vaisala, 28.

We have further developed our three-dimensional cloud model, which includes parameterizations of lightning, corona from ground, ion production and capture, and inductive and noninductive electrification mechanisms, as well as advanced treatments of advection, microphysics, and dynamics. Our most recent improvements have been to improve the model's treatment of microphysics, particularly particle size distributions. This model has been used to simulate many types of storms, from small isolated storms to extensive storm systems, supercell storms, and an idealized hurricane, with excellent similitude to observed kinematic structure in many cases. We will show examples of our simulations and will discuss relationships among the model fields, particularly between lightning and other storm properties. Lightning usually is correlated with precipitation ice mass and with the mass flux through the mixed phase region for updrafts >10 m/s.

MacGorman, D., K. Kuhlman, W. D. Rust, M. Biggerstaff, P. Krehbiel, B. Rison, 2008: Lightning and electrical structure of a heavy-precipitation supercell storm during TELEX. Preprints, 2nd International Lightning Meteorology Conference, Tucson, AZ, USA, Vaisala, 10.

The Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning Experiment (TELEX) observed a heavy-precipitation (HP) supercell storm in central Oklahoma on 29 May 2004. In a HP supercell storm, the initial location of the mesocyclone, which is the parent rotation of tornadoes, is embedded well within the precipitation of the storm, instead of being on the edge of the storm(as in classic and low-precipitation supercell storms). Two 5-cm wavelength mobile Doppler radars were positioned near the storm and collected volume scans every 3 minutes for 3 h beginning as the storm became supercellular. The storm had supercell characteristics for this entire period. The Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array provided three-dimensional data throughout the storm’s supercellular stage and provided two-dimensional data from the time of storm initiation in western Oklahoma. A 10-cm wavelength polarimetric radar also provided data for much of this period.
Lightning flash rates became extraordinarily large as the storm evolved into a supercell and its motion turned rightward. Flash rates increased again (to an estimated peak value of almost 500 flashes per minute) shortly before the storm produced a tornado rated F2 on the Fujita scale. During this period, an upward pulse in lightning density extended as high as 18 km MSL in a plume extending above the equilibrium level. Most flashes in the main body of the storm had small spatial extent (3-10 km). Lightning in the overshooting top consisted of continual single-point flashes.
The region of lightning activity pulsed eastward far into the anvil, up to 100 km from the convective core. Up to 5 -CG flashes per minute were initiated in the anvil more than 40 km from the main storm core, and typically came to ground within a few kilometers horizontally of the location of initiation. Because these -CG strikes occur far from the deep convection, they pose a generally unexpected danger to personnel.
A series of minimums in the plan projection of lightning density (i.e., lightning holes) formed just above the bounded weak echo region. A dual-Doppler synthesis of wind during one volume scan shows the lightning hole was co-located with large vertical wind speeds in the rotating updraft. The hole apparently occurred because precipitation particles had little time to grow and gain charge in the strong updraft before they were lifted to upper regions of the storm and advected outward by flow from the diverging updraft. Lightning mapping data suggest that the vertical polarity of the storm’s electrical structure was inverted from the usual polarity, and this appears to be why CG flashes that began in the anvil were -CG flashes.

MacGorman, D., K. Kuhlman, E. Bruning, D. Rust, P. Krehbiel, M. Biggerstaff, 2007: Small, continual lightning activity in the overshooting turret of supercell storms. Preprints, 2007 Annual Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, American Geophysical Union, AE41A-03.

MacGorman, D., K. Kuhlman, M. Biggerstaff, D. Rust, P. Krehbiel, 2006: Lightning and radar observations of the 29 May 2004 tornadic HP supercell during TELEX. Preprints, Annual Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, American Geophysical Union, AE343A-1056.

MacGorman, D., C. Ziegler, T. Mansell, J. Straka, P. Krehbiel, B. Rison, T. Hamlin, 2005: Applications of advanced lightning mapping technologies to storm research and weather operations. Preprints, Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, San Diego, CA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 2.1.

MacGorman, D. R., W. D. Rust, C. L. Ziegler, T. J. Schuur, E. R. Mansell, M. I. Biggerstaff, J. M. Straka, E. C. Bruning, K. M. Kuhlman, N. R. Ramig, C. D. Payne, N. S. Biermann, P. R. Krehbiel, W. Rison, T. Hamlin, L. D. Carey, 2005: Lightning relative to storm structure, evolution, and microphysics in TELEX. Preprints, 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, 10R.7.

Maddox, R. A., M. S. Gilmore, J. A. Hart, C. Crisp, C. A. Doswell, D. W. Burgess, 2006: The Tri-State Tornado of 18 March 1925, Part II: Re-examination of the Weather Conditions Supporting the Parent Storm. Extended Abstracts, 23rd Conference on Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, USA, American Meteorological Society, 18.2.

Mansell, E. R., D. R. MacGorman, C. L. Ziegler, J. M. Straka, 2005: Charge structure in a simulated multicell thunderstorm. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, .

A three-dimensional dynamic cloud model is used to investigate electrification of the full life cycle of an idealized continental multicell storm. Five laboratory-based parameterizations of noninductive graupel-ice charge separation are compared. Inductive (i.e., electric field-dependent) charge separation is tested for rebounding graupel-droplet collisions. Each noninductive graupel-ice parameterization is combined with variations in the effectiveness of inductive charging (off, moderate, and strong) and in the minimum ice crystal concentration (10 or 50/L). Small atmospheric ion processes such as hydrometeor attachment and point discharge at the ground are treated explicitly. Three of the noninductive schemes readily produced a normal polarity charge structure, consisting of a main negative charge region with an upper main positive charge region and a lower positive charge region. Negative polarity cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes occurred when the lower positive charge (LPC) region had sufficient charge density to cause high electric fields. Two of the three also produced one or more +CG flashes. The other two noninductive charging schemes, which are dependent on the graupel rime accretion rate, tended to produce an initially inverted polarity charge structure and +CG flashes. The model results suggest that inductive graupel-droplet charge separation could play a role in the development of lower charge regions. Noninductive charging, on the other hand, was also found to be capable of producing strong lower charge regions in the tests with a minimum ice crystal concentration of 50/L.

Mansell, T., C. Ziegler, D. MacGorman, 2006: A Lightning Data Assimilation Technique for Mesoscale Forecast Models. Preprints, 1st International Lightning Meteorology Conference, Tucson, AZ, USA, Vaisala, CD-ROM, N/A. [Available from Vaisala, Inc., Tucson Operations, 2705 E. Medina Rd., Tucson, AZ, USA, 85706.]

Lightning observations have been assimilated into the COAMPS mesoscale model for improvement of forecast initial conditions. Data are used from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN, cloud-to-ground lightning detection) and a Lightning Mapping Array (LMA; total lightning detection) that was installed in western Kansas/eastern Colorado. The assimilation method uses lightning as a proxy for the presence or absence of deep convection. During assimilation, lightning data are used to control the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convection parameterization scheme (CPS). The KF scheme can be forced to try to produce convection where lightning indicated storms, and, conversely, can optionally be prevented from producing spurious convection where no lightning was observed. Up to 1 g/kg of water vapor may be added to the boundary layer when the KF convection is too weak. The method does not make any use lightning-rainfall relationships, rather allowing the KF scheme to generate heating and cooling rates from its modeled convection. The method could therefore be used easily for real-time assimilation of any source of lightning observations.

Results will be presented for a warm-season test case 20-21 July 2000, when storms initiated and developed in large systems in Kansas both days. The second round of convection began by 22:00 UTC (20 July), and storm system with strong outflow had developed by 00 UTC on 21 July. Lightning data were assimilated over a 24 hour period (starting at 00 UTC on 20 July), covering the first round of convection and the start of the second. A control run was spun up over the same period only with the usual 12-hourly update cycle. As expected, during the assimilation period the model produces substantially more accurate precipitation (rates and location) than the control forecast. Even when water vapor was added to enhance convection, the rainfall rates were generally less than those indicated by rain gauge data. A forecast was started from the resulting initial condition at 00 UTC on 21 July 2000.

The lightning assimilation was successful in generating the cold pool that was present in the surface observations at initialization of the forecast. The resulting forecast showed considerably more skill than the control forecast, especially in the first few hours as convection was triggered by the propagation of the cold pool boundary.

Mansell, E. R., C. L. Ziegler, D. R. MacGorman, 2006: A Lightning Data Assimilation Technique for Mesoscale Forecast Models. Preprints, Second Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, Atlanta, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 4.2.

Lightning observations have been assimilated into the COAMPS mesoscale model for improvement of forecast initial conditions. Data are used from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN, cloud-to-ground lightning detection) and a Lightning Mapping Array (LMA; total lightning detection) that was installed in western Kansas/eastern Colorado. The assimilation method uses lightning as a proxy for the presence or absence of deep convection. During assimilation, lightning data are used to control the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convection parameterization scheme (CPS). The KF scheme can be forced to try to produce convection where lightning indicated storms, and, conversely, can optionally be prevented from producing spurious convection where no lightning was observed. Up to 1 g/kg of water vapor may be added to the boundary layer when the KF convection is too weak. The method does not make any use lightning-rainfall relationships, rather allowing the KF scheme to generate heating and cooling rates from its modeled convection. The method could therefore be used easily for real-time assimilation of any source of lightning observations.

Results will be presented for a warm-season test case 20-21 July 2000, when storms initiated and developed in large systems in Kansas both days. The second round of convection began by 22:00 UTC (20 July), and storm system with strong outflow had developed by 00 UTC on 21 July. Lightning data were assimilated over a 24 hour period (starting at 00 UTC on 20 July), covering the first round of convection and the start of the second. A control run was spun up over the same period only with the usual 12-hourly update cycle. As expected, during the assimilation period the model produces substantially more accurate precipitation (rates and location) than the control forecast. Even when water vapor was added to enhance convection, the rainfall rates were generally less than those indicated by rain gauge data. A forecast was started from the resulting initial condition at 00 UTC on 21 July 2000.

The lightning assimilation was successful in generating the cold pool that was present in the surface observations at initialization of the forecast. The resulting forecast showed considerably more skill than the control forecast, especially in the first few hours as convection was triggered by the propagation of the cold pool boundary.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/Annual2006/techprogram/paper_104180.htm.

Mansell, E. R., C. L. Ziegler, D. R. MacGorman, 2007: A Lightning Data Assimilation Technique for Mesoscale Forecast Models. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 1732-1748.

Lightning observations have been assimilated into a mesoscale model for improvement of forecast initial conditions. Data are used from the National Lightning Detection Network (cloud-to-ground lightning detection) and a Lightning Mapping Array (total lightning detection) that was installed in western Kansas–eastern Colorado. The assimilation method uses lightning as a proxy for the presence or absence of deep convection. During assimilation, lightning data are used to control the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convection parameterization scheme. The KF scheme can be forced to try to produce convection where lightning indicated storms, and, conversely, can optionally be prevented from producing spurious convection where no lightning was observed. Up to 1 g/kg of water vapor may be added to the boundary layer when the KF convection is too weak. The method does not employ any lightning–rainfall relationships, but rather allows the KF scheme to generate heating and cooling rates from its modeled convection. The method could therefore easily be used for real-time assimilation of any source of lightning observations. For the case study, the lightning assimilation was successful in generating cold pools that were present in the surface observations at initialization of the forecast. The resulting forecast showed considerably more skill than the control forecast, especially in the first few hours as convection was triggered by the propagation of the cold pool boundary.

Mansell, E., C. L. Ziegler, E. Bruning, 2007: Simulated electrification of a TELEX multicell storm. Preprints, 13th International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, Beijing, China, International Commission on Atmospheric Electricity, 290-293.

Marchand, R. N., N. Beagley, S. Thompson, T. P. Ackerman, D. M. Schultz, 2006: A bootstrap technique for testing the relationship between local-scale radar observations of cloud occurrence and large-scale atmospheric fields. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 63, 2813-2830.

Marsh, P. T., H. E. Brooks, D. J. Karoly, 2007: Assessment of the severe weather environment in North America simulated by a global climate model. Atmospheric Science Letters, 8, 106.

Annual and seasonal cycles of convectively important atmospheric parameters for North America have been computed using the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) Global Climate Model using a decade of CCSM3 data. Results for the spatial and temporal distributions of environments conducive to severe convective weather qualitatively agree with observational estimates from NCAR/NCEP global reanalyses, although the model underestimates the frequency of occurrence of severe weather environments. This result demonstrates the possibility for future studies aimed at determining possible changes in the distribution of severe weather environments associated with global climate change.

McPherson, R. A., D. J. Stensrud, 2005: Influences of a winter wheat belt on the evolution of the boundary layer. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 2178-2199.

Evidence exists that a large-scale alteration of land use by humans can cause changes in the climatology of the region. The largest-scale transformation is the substitution of native landscape by agricultural cropland. This modeling study examines the impact of a direct substitution of one type of grassland for another - in this case, the replacement of tallgrass prairie with winter wheat. The primary difference between these grasses is their growing season: native prairie grasses of the U. S. Great Plains are warm-season grasses whereas winter wheat is a cool-season grass.

Case study simulations were conducted for 27 March 2000 and 5 April 2000 - days analyzed in previous observational studies. The simulations provided additional insight into the physical processes involved and changes that occurred throughout the depth of the planetary boundary layer. Results indicate the following: 1) with the proper adjustment of vegetation parameters, land-use type, fractional vegetation coverage, and soil moisture, the numerical simulations were able to capture the overall patterns measured near the surface across a growing wheat belt during benign springtime conditions in Oklahoma; 2) the impacts of the mesoscale belt of growing wheat included increased values of latent heat flux and decreased values of sensible heat flux over the wheat, increased values of atmospheric moisture near the surface above and downstream of the wheat, and a shallower planetary boundary layer (PBL) above and downstream of the wheat; 3) in the sheared environments that were examined, a shallower PBL that resulted from growing wheat (rather than natural vegetation) led to reduced entrainment of higher momentum air into the PBL and, thus, weaker winds within the PBL over and downwind from the growing wheat; 4) for the cases studied, gradients in sensible heat were insufficient to establish an unambiguous vegetation breeze or its corresponding mesoscale circulation; 5) the initialization of soil moisture within the root zone aided latent heat fluxes from growing vegetation; and 6) reasonable specification of land surface parametes was required for the correct simulation and prediction of surface heat fluxes and resulting boundary layer development.

Mejia, J. F., M. Douglas, 2005: Mean structure and variability of the low-level jet across the central Gulf of California from NOAA WP-3D flight level observations during the North American Monsoon Experiment. Preprints, 6th Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes (6COASTAL), San Diego, CA, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, 5.8.

Mejia, J. F., M. W. Douglas, 2005: Mean structure and variability of the low-level jet across the central Gulf of California from NOAA WP-3D flight level observations during the North American Monsoon Experiment. Preprints, Sixth Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes, San Diego, CA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 5.8.

This presentation describes lower tropospheric features over the Gulf of California, Mexico using NOAA WP-3D aircraft flight level observations made during July and August 2004 as part of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME). The WP-3D was flown to capture the 3-dimensional structure of the low level flow during both "strong" and "normal" monsoon flow conditions in this region. Ten flights were carried out during NAME; they were focused mainly on measuring moisture fluxes and the low-level jet (LLJ) flow along the Gulf of California. The low-level flow over the Gulf of California exhibits a low-level jet structure that is characteristic during the summertime and its stronger events appear to transport a significant amount of moisture into the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. We compare analyses produced by models (NCEP regional reanalysis) and the NAME sounding network observations to the aircraft measurements made on the flight days. From comparison of the aircraft data with the NAME sounding network observations we can determine how accurately the sounding network tends to estimate the actual moisture flux over the Gulf of California

Mejia, J. F., M. W. Douglas, 2005: Intensive “porpoising” with a research aircraft to determine atmospheric structure during the SALLJEX and NAME programs. Preprints, 13th Symposium on Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation, Savannah, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, JP1.32.

Two recent field programs have focused on describing aspects of low-level jets in the Americas. Both programs have used NOAA WP-3D research aircraft to make mesoscale measurements about the jets, with the object of describing the 3-dimensional structure of the flow over relatively large areas. During both field programs the WP-3D was used as a probe, with the aircraft moving vertically while carrying out flight patterns that were mostly predetermined. The object was to describe both the horizontal structure of the jets while also describing the vertical variation of the flow. This involved trade-offs in the design of the flights. The SALLJEX flights sampled a deeper jet flow, necessitating greater vertical coverage and lesser horizontal resolution. The NAME flights were intended to sample a shallow jet that was confined in part by topography. This presentation summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of using the aircraft in a porpoising mode, with examples drawn from both experiments. The objective is to explain the benefits (and limitations) of the porpoising procedure and discuss how it may be employed most effectively.

Mejia, J. F., 2008: Moisture surges over the Gulf of California and relationships with convective activity. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Oklahoma, 220 pp.

Morss, R. E., J. K. Lazo, B. G. Brown, H. E. Brooks, P. T. Ganderton, B. N. Mills, 2008: Societal and Economic Research and Applications For Weather Forecasts: Priorities for the North American THORPEX Program. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 335-346.

Despite the meteorological community's long-term interest in weather–society interactions, efforts to understand socioeconomic aspects of weather prediction and to incorporate this knowledge into the weather prediction system have yet to reach critical mass. This article aims to reinvigorate interest in societal and economic research and applications (SERA) activities within the meteorological and social science communities by exploring key SERA issues and proposing SERA priorities for the next decade.

The priorities were developed by the authors, building on previous work, with input from a diverse group of social scientists and meteorologists who participated in a SERA workshop in August 2006. The workshop was organized to provide input to the North American regional component of THORPEX: A Global Atmospheric Research Programme, but the priorities identified are broadly applicable to all weather forecast research and applications.

To motivate and frame SERA activities, we first discuss the concept of high-impact weather forecasts and the chain from forecast creation to value realization. Next, we present five interconnected SERA priority themes—use of forecast information in decision making, communication of forecast uncertainty, user-relevant verification, economic value of forecasts, and decision support—and propose research integrated across the themes.

SERA activities can significantly improve understanding of weather–society interactions to the benefit of the meteorological community and society. However, reaching this potential will require dedicated effort to bring together and maintain a sustainable interdisciplinary community.

Murillo, J., M. W. Douglas, R. Orozco, J. M. Galvez, J. F. Mejia, C. Brown, 2005: Quality control of pilot balloon data for climate monitoring. Preprints, 13th Symposium on Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation, Savannah, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, JP1.30.

Parker, D. J., M. W. Douglas, M. Christoph, A. H. Fink, S. Janicot, J. B. Ngamini, E. Afiesimama, A. Agusti-Panareda, A. Beljaars, F. Dide, A. Ddiedhiou, T. Lebel, J. Polcher, J. L. Redelsperger, C. Thorncroft, G. Wilson, 2008: The Amma radiosonde programme and its implications for the future of atmospheric monitoring over Africa.. Preprints, 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Orlando, FL, USA, American Meteorological Society, 3C.1.

This presentation describes the upper air observational programme which is being carried out as part of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). An important goal of AMMA is to evaluate the impact of the upper-air data on weather and climate prediction for West Africa, and for the hurricane genesis regions of the tropical Atlantic. Since 2004, AMMA scientists have been working with operational agencies in Africa to reactivate silent radiosonde stations, to renovate unreliable stations, and to install new stations in regions of particular climatic importance. A comprehensive upper air network of 21 stations, including four GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN) stations, is now active over West Africa, and during the AMMA Special Observing Period (SOP) June to September 2006 some 7000 soundings were made in the region, representing the greatest density of upper air observations ever since in the region, exceeding even the number of soundings made during the GATE programme of 1974. AMMA also encompassed a short, intensive campaign on a network of PILOT stations in the western part of the region, centered on Senegal. This activity both exposed the dilapidated state of the operational PILOT network in the region, and demonstrated that important upper air data can be collected at relatively low cost through PILOT soundings. Many operational lessons were learned in AMMA, involving technical problems in the harsh environment of sub-Saharan Africa and issues of funding, coordination and communication among the many nations and agencies involved. From these lessons we are able to make firm recommendations for the maintenance and operation of a useful upper air network in WMO Region I in the future.

Parker, D. J., A. Fink, S. Janicot, J. Ngamini, M. W. Douglas, E. Afiesimama, A. Agusti-Panareda, A. Beljaars, F. Dide, A. Diedhiou, T. Lebel, J. Polcher, J. L. Redelsperger, C. Thorncroft, G. A. Wilson, 2008: The Amma Radiosonde Program and its Implications for the Future of Atmospheric Monitoring Over Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 1015-1027.

This article describes the upper-air program, which has been conducted as part of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Since 2004, AMMA scientists have been working in partnership with operational agencies in Africa to reactivate silent radiosonde stations, to renovate unreliable stations, and to install new stations in regions of particular climatic importance. A comprehensive upper-air network is now active over West Africa and has contributed to high-quality atmospheric monitoring over three monsoon seasons. During the period June to September 2006 high-frequency soundings were performed, in conjunction with intensive aircraft and ground-based activities: some 7,000 soundings were made, representing the greatest density of upper air measurements ever collected over the region. An important goal of AMMA is to evaluate the impact of these data on weather and climate prediction for West Africa, and for the hurricane genesis regions of the tropical Atlantic. Many operational difficulties were encountered in the program, involving technical problems in the harsh environment of sub-Saharan Africa and issues of funding, coordination, and communication among the many nations and agencies involved. In facing up to these difficulties, AMMA achieved a steady improvement in the number of soundings received by numerical weather prediction centers, with a success rate of over 88% by August 2007. From the experience of AMMA, we are therefore able to make firm recommendations for the maintenance and operation of a useful upper-air network in WMO Region I in the future.

Payne, C., T. J. Schuur, D. R. MacGorman, W. D. Rust, M. Biggerstaff, K. Kuhlman, E. Bruning, N. Lund, 2008: Electrical and polarimetric radar observations of an HP supercell on 29 May 2004 during TELEX. Preprints, 3rd Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, New Orleans, LA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 4.6.

Pinto, J., C. Kessinger, B. Hendrickson, D. Megenhardt, P. Harasti, Q. Xu, P. Zhang, Q. Zhao, M. Frost, J. Cook, S. Potts, 2007: Storm characterization and short term forecasting potential using a phase array radar. Extended Abstracts, 33rd Conference on Radar Meteorology. 6–10 August 2007, Cairns, Australia. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,, Cairns, Australia, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P5.18.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/123703.pdf.

Qiu, C., A. Shao, S. Liu, Q. Xu, 2005: A two-step variational method for three-dimensional wind retrieval from single Doppler radar. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 90(1-2), .

Qiu, C., A. Shao, Q. Xu, L. Wei, 2007: An Ensemble-Based 4DVar Approach Based on SVD Technique. Extended Abstracts, 18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, park City, UT, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P2.2.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/22WAF18NWP/techprogram/paper_123933.htm.

Qiu, C., A. Shao, Q. Xu, L. Wei, 2007: Fitting model fields to observations by using singular value decomposition – An ensemble-based 4DVar approach. Journal of Geophysical Research - D: Atmospheres., 112, .

Ramig, N., D. MacGorman, W. D. Rust, T. J. Schuur, E. Bruning, P. Krehbiel, W. Rison, T. Hamlin, J. Straka, C. Payne, I. Apostolakopoulos, M. Biggerstaff, N. Biermann, L. Carey, 2005: The stratiform region of an MCS on 19 June in TELEX 2004 observed with polarimetric and Doppler radars, electric field soundings, and a lightning mapping array. Preprints, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, American Geophysical Union, AE21A-0977.

Ramig, N., D. MacGorman, D. Rust, T. Schuur, P. Krehbiel, W. Rison, T. Hamlin, J. Straka, M. Biggerstaff, 2007: Relationship between lightning location and polarimetric radar signatures in an MCS. Preprints, 13th International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, Beijing, China, IUGG/Commission on Atmospheric Electricity, PS5-2.

The relationship of lightning initiation and structure to the storm microphysics and structure depicted by polarimetric radar has been analyzed for a small mesoscale convective system (MCS) that occurred on 19 June 2004 during the Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning Experiment (TELEX). Horizontal reflectivity (Z), differential reflectivity (Zdr), specific differential phase (Kdp) and correlation coefficient (ρHV) data were gathered by a 10-cm, polarimetric radar located in Norman, Oklahoma. Three-dimensional lightning structure was mapped by the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (OK-LMA), and ground strike points were mapped by the United States National Lightning Detection Network. OK-LMA data were processed to group mapped points into flashes and to determine the initiation location of each flash that contained more than 10 mapped points. The initiation location was calculated by sequentially eliminating outliers among the first 10 points that occurred in a flash, with no fewer than 5 points being used in the final initiation location. The initiation location and mapped points for each flash were superimposed on polarimetric radar data in order to investigate lightning relationships with storm structure. The lightning initiation points tended to cluster together in one of two altitude ranges and were almost all in the convective line. Initial results show a relationship between the lightning initiation locations and radar signatures in both Z and Kdp. In the lower altitude range, between 3 and 5 km MSL, initiation locations tended to cluster around updraft cores, in regions characterized by a transition in Z from 50 to 55 dBZ and a transition in Kdp from 0.4 to 0.5 deg/km. In the upper range, between 8 and 10 km MSL, initiation points tended to cluster directly above the updrafts, in regions characterized by a transition in Z from 42.5 to 47.5 dBZ and in Kdp from 0.075 to 0.150 deg/km. The two-layer nature of the initiation points is consistent with grossly tripolar structure of the charge distribution involved in lightning in the convective line. Also, the horizontal pattern of the initiation locations has a quasi-periodic horizontal structure which is 180 degrees out of phase with the maximum updraft locations for the lower region and is in phase with the maximum updraft locations for the upper region. There were also a few flash initiations within the stratiform region, possibly associated with decaying cells. The values of Z and Kdp associated with these initiation points were smaller than in the convective line, but as in the convective line, the initiations also occurred along gradients, above a local maximum, in these parameters.

Rust, W. D., D. R. MacGorman, E. C. Bruning, S. A. Weiss, P. R. Krehbiel, R. J. Thomas, W. Rison, T. Hamlin, J. Harlin, 2005: Inverted-polarity electrical structures in thunderstorms in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS). Atmospheric Research, 76, 247-271.

Balloon-borne electric field soundings and lightning mapping data have been analyzed for three of the storms that occurred in the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study field program in 2000 to determine if the storms had inverted-polarity electrical structures. The polarities of all or some of the vertically stacked charge regions in such storms are opposite to the polarities observed at comparable heights in normal storms. Analyses compared the charge structures inferred from electric field soundings in the storms with charges inferred from three-dimensional lightning mapping data. Charge structures were inferred from electric field profiles by combining the one-dimensional approximation of Gauss's law with additional information from three-dimensional patterns in the electric field vectors. The three different ways of inferring the charge structure in the storms were found to complement each other and to be consistent overall. Charge deposition by lightning possibly occurred and increased the charge complexity of one of the storms.

Many of the cloud flashes in each case were inverted-polarity flashes. Two storms produced ground flash activity comprised predominantly of positive ground flashes. One storm, which was an isolated thunderstorm, produced inverted-polarity cloud flashes, but no flashes to ground. The positive and negative thunderstorm charge regions were found at altitudes where, respectively, negative and positive charge would be found in normal-polarity storms. Thus, we conclude that these storms had anomalous and inverted-polarity electrical structures. Collectively, these three cases (along with the limited cases in the refereed literature) provide additional evidence that thunderstorms can have inverted-polarity electrical structures.

Rust, W. D., D. R. MacGorman, T. J. Schuur, P. Krehbiel, T. Hamlin, M. Biggerstaff, L. Carey, J. Straka, C. Payne, A. Caine, 2005: The stratiform region of an MCS on 19 June in TELEX 2004 observed with polarimetric radar, electric field soundings, and a lightning mapping array. Preprints, 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, J3J.5.

Scharfenberg, K. A., D. J. Miller, T. J. Schuur, P. T. Schlatter, S. E. Giangrande, V. M. Melnikov, D. W. Burgess, D. L. Andra, Jr., M. P. Foster, J. M. Krause, 2005: The Joint Polarization Experiment: Polarimetric radar in forecasting and warning decision-making. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 775-788.

To test the utility and added value of polarimetric radar products in an operational environment, data from the Norman, Oklahoma (KOUN), polarimetric Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) were delivered to the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Norman as part of the Joint Polarization Experiment (JPOLE). KOUN polarimetric base data and algorithms were used at the WFO during the decision-making and forecasting processes for severe convection, flash floods, and winter storms. The delivery included conventional WSR-88D radar products, base polarimetric radar variables, a polarimetric hydrometeor classification algorithm, and experimental polarimetric quantitative precipitation estimation algorithms. The JPOLE data collection, delivery, and operational demonstration are described, with examples of several forecast and warning decision-making successes. Polarimetric data aided WFO forecasters during several periods of heavy rain, numerous large-hail-producing thunderstorms, tornadic and nontornadic supercell thunderstorms, and a major winter storm. Upcoming opportunities and challenges associated with the emergence of polarimetric radar data in the operational community are also described.

Schultz, D. M., 2005: A review of cold fronts with prefrontal troughs and wind shifts. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 2449-2472.

Schultz, D. M., K. M. Kanak, J. M. Straka, R. J. Trapp, B. A. Gordon, D. S. Zrnic, G. H. Bryan, A. J. Durant, T. J. Garrett, P. M. Klein, D. K. Lilly, 2006: The mysteries of mammatus clouds: Observations and formation mechanisms. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 63, 2409-2435.

Mammatus clouds are an intriguing enigma of atmospheric fluid dynamics and cloud physics. Most commonly observed on the underside of cumulonimbus anvils, mammatus also occur on the underside of cirrus, cirrocumulus, altocumulus, altostratus, and stratocumulus, as well as in contrails from jet aircraft and pyrocumulus ash clouds from volcanic eruptions. Despite their aesthetic appearance, mammatus have been the sub ject of few quantitative research studies. Observations of mammatus have been obtained largely through serendipitous opportunities with a single observ- ing system (e.g., aircraft penetrations, visual observations, lidar, radar) or tangential observations from field programs with other ob jectives. Theories describing mammatus remain untested as ad- equate measurements for validation do not exist because of the small distance scales and short time scales of mammatus. Modeling studies of mammatus are virtually nonexistent. As a result, relatively little is known about the environment, formation mechanisms, properties, microphysics, and dynamics of mammatus.

This paper presents a review of mammatus clouds that addresses these mysteries. Previous observations of mammatus and proposed formation mechanisms are discussed. These hypothesized mechanisms are anvil subsidence, subcloud evaporation/sublimation, melting, hydrometeor fallout, cloud-base detrainment instability, radiative effects, gravity waves, Kelvin-Helmholtz instability, Rayleigh-Taylor instability, and Rayleigh-Bénard-like convection. Other issues addressed in this paper include whether mammatus are composed of ice or liquid water hydrometeors, why mammatus are smooth, what controls the temporal and spatial scales and organization of individual mammatus lobes, and what are the properties of volcanic ash clouds that produce mammatus? The similarities and differences between mammatus, virga, stalactites, and reticular clouds are also discussed. Finally, because much still remains to be learned, research opportunities are described for using mammatus as a window into the microphysical, turbulent, and dynamical processes occurring on the underside of clouds.

Schultz, D. M., 2006: Comments on "Cloud-resolving model simulations of multiply-banded frontal clouds" by Pizzamei et al. (2005). Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 132, 2095-2096.

Schultz, D. M., K. Seitter, L. Bosart, C. Gorski, C. Iovinella, 2007: Factors affecting the increasing costs of AMS conferences. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 408-417.

Schultz, D. M., C. C. Weiss, P. M. Hoffman, 2007: The synoptic regulation of dryline intensity. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 1699-1709.

Schultz, D. M., 2007: Banded convection caused by frontogenesis in a conditionally, symmetrically, and inertially unstable environment. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 2095-2110.

Several east–west-oriented bands of clouds and light rain formed on 20 July 2005 over eastern Montana and the Dakotas. The cloud bands were spaced about 150 km apart, and the most intense band was about 20 km wide and 300 km long, featuring areas of maximum radar reflectivity factor of about 50 dBZ. The cloud bands formed poleward of an area of lower-tropospheric frontogenesis, where air of modest convective available potential energy was being lifted. During initiation and maintenance of the bands, mesoscale regions of dry symmetric and inertial instability were present in the region of the bands, suggesting a possible mechanism for the banding. Interpretation of the extant instabilities in the region of the bands was sensitive to the methodology to assess the instability. The release of these instabilities produced circulations with enough vertical motion to lift parcels to their lifting condensation level, resulting in the observed cloud bands. A high-resolution, numerical weather prediction model demonstrated that forecasting these types of events in such real-time models is possible, although the timing, evolution, and spacing of the bands were not faithfully reproduced. This case is compared to two previous cases in the literature where banded convection was associated with a combination of conditional, symmetric, and inertial instability.

Schultz, D. M., R. M. Friedman, 2007: Tor Harold Percival Bergeron. New Dictionary of Scientific Biography, N. Koertge, Ed(s)., Charles Scribner's Sons, 245-250.

Schultz, D. M., F. Zhang, 2007: Baroclinic development within zonally varying flows. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133, 1101-1112.

Schultz, D. M., J. A. Knox, 2007: Banded convection caused by frontogenesis in a conditionally, symmetrically and inertially unstable environment. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 2095-2110.

Sears-Collins, A. L., D. M. Schultz, R. H. Johns, 2006: The spatial and temporal variability of drizzle in the United States and Canada. Weather and Forecasting, 19, 3629-3639.

A climatology of nonfreezing drizzle is created using surface observations from 584 stations across the United States and Canada over the 15 years 1976 - 1990. Drizzle falls 50 - 200 h a year in most locations in the eastern United States and Canada, whereas drizzle falls less than 50 h a year in the west, except for coastal Alaska and several western basins. The eastern and western halves of North America are separated by a strong gradient in drizzle frequency along roughly 100° W, as large as about an hour a year over 2 km. Forty percent of the stations have a drizzle maximum from November to January, whereas only 13% of stations have a drizzle maximum from June to August. Drizzle occurrence exhibits a seasonal migration from eastern Canada and the central portion of the Northwest Territories in summer, equatorward to most of the eastern United States and southeast Canada in early winter, to southeastern Texas and the eastern United States in late winter, and back north to eastern Canada in the spring. The diurnal hourly frequency of drizzle across the United States and Canada increases sharply from 0900 UTC to 1200 UTC, followed by a steady decline from 1300 UTC to 2300 UTC. Diurnal drizzle frequency is maximum in the early morning, in agreement with other studies. Drizzle occurs during a wide range of atmospheric conditions at the surface. Drizzle has occurred at sea level pressures below 960 hPa and above 1040 hPa. Most drizzle, however, occurs at higher than normal sea level pressure, with more than 64% occurring at a sea level pressure of 1015 hPa or higher. A third of all drizzle falls when the winds are from the northeast quadrant (360° - 89°), suggesting that continental drizzle events tend to be found poleward of surface warm fronts and equatorward of cold-sector surface anticyclones. Two-thirds of all drizzle occurs with wind speeds 2.0 - 6.9 m s-1, with 7.6% in calm wind and 5% at wind speeds greater than or equal to 10 m s-1. Most drizzle (61%) occurs with visibilities between 1.5 and 5.0 km, with only about 20% occurring at visibilities less than 1.5 km.

Segele, Z. T., D. J. Stensrud, I. C. Ratcliffe, G. M. Henebry, 2005: Influence of a hailstreak on boundary layer evolution. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 942-960.

Severe thunderstorms developed on 20 June 1997 and produced heavy precipitation, damaging winds, and large hail over two swaths in southeastern South Dakota. Calculations of fractional vegetation coverage (scaled from 0 to 1) based upon composite satellite data indicate that, within the hailstreak region, vegetation coverage decreased from 0.50 to near 0.25 owing to the damaging effects of hail on the growing vegetation. The northern edge of the larger hailstreak was located a few km south of Chamberlain, South Dakota, a National Weather Service surface observation site. Hourly observations from Chamberlain and several nearby surface sites in South Dakota are averaged over 7 days both before and after this hail event. These observations illustrate that the late afternoon (nighttime) temperatures are 2°C higher (2°C lower) near the hailstreak after the event than before the event. Similarly, daily average dewpoint temperatures after the event are 2.6°C lower near the hailstreak. These changes are consistent with the influences of a recently devegetated zone on changes to the surface energy budget.

To explore how these hailstreaks further affected the evolution of the planetary boundary layer in this region, two model simulations are performed using the Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). In the control run, climatology is used for the land surface characteristics and hence the simulation is independent of the hailstreaks. In the hailstreak simulation (HSS), the fractional vegetation coverage and soil moisture in the hailstreak regions are modified to reflect the likely conditions within the hailstreaks. Two different days are simulated, one with low surface wind speeds and one with stronger surface wind speeds. For the low surface wind speed case, the HSS simulation produces a sea-breeze-like circulation in the boundary layer by mid-morning. For the stronger surface wind speed case, this sea-breeze-like circulation does not develop in the HSS, but the simulated low-level temperatures are modified over a larger area. These results suggest that to capture and reasonably simulate the evolution of boundary layer structures, there is a need for routine daily updates of land surface information. Hailstreaks also are important to consider in the future as the focus for observational studies on non-classical mesoscale circulations.

Stensrud, D. J., 2007: Parameterization Schemes: Keys to Understanding Numerical Weather Prediction Models. Cambridge University Press, 459 pp.

2008 Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Outstanding Scientific Paper Award - Special Recognition

Numerical weather prediction models play an increasingly important role in meteorology, both in short- and medium-range forecasting and global climate change studies. Arguably, the most important components of any numerical weather prediction model are the subgrid-scale parameterization schemes. These parameterization schemes determine the amount of energy that reaches the Earth's surface; determine the evolution of the planetary boundary layer; decide when subgrid-scale clouds and convection develop and produce rainfall; and determine the influence of subgrid-scale orography on the atmosphere. The analysis and understanding of parameterization schemes is a key aspect of numerical weather prediction.

This is the first book to provide in-depth explorations of the most commonly used types of parameterization schemes that influence short-range weather forecasts and global climate models. Each chapter covers a different type of parameterization scheme, starting with an overview explaining why each scheme is needed, and then reviewing the basic theory behind it. Several parameterizations are summarized and compared, followed by a discussion of their limitations. Review questions at the end of each chapter enable readers to monitor their understanding of the topics covered, and solutions are available at www.cambridge.org/9780521865401.

Stensrud, D. J., N. Yussouf, 2005: Bias-corrected short-range ensemble forecasts of near surface variables. Meteorological Applications, 12, 217-230.

A multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system created as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration program on improved high temperature forecasting during the summer of 2003 is evaluated. Results from this short-range ensemble system indicate that using the past complete 12 days of forecasts to bias correct today’s forecast yields ensemble mean forecasts of 2-m temperature, 2-m dewpoint temperature, and 10-m wind speed that are competitive with or better than those available from any of the model output statistics presently generated operationally in the United States. However, the bias-corrected ensemble system provides more than just the ensemble mean forecast. Probabilities produced by this system are skillful and reliable, and have been found to be valuable when evaluated in a cost-loss model. The ensemble appears to provide better guidance for more unlikely events, such as very warm temperatures, that likely have the greatest economic significance. Industries that are sensitive to the weather, such as power companies, transportation, and agriculture, may benefit from the probability information provided. Thus, it is possible to develop post-processing for short-range ensemble forecasting systems that is competitive with or better than traditional post-processing techniques, thereby allowing the rapid production of useful and accurate guidance forecasts of many near surface variables.

Stensrud, D. J., M. C. Coniglio, R. P. Davies-Jones, J. S. Evans, 2005: Comments on “A Theory for Strong Long-Lived Squall Lines” Revisited. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 62, 2989-2996.

No abstract.

Stensrud, D. J., H. E. Brooks, 2005: The future of peer review?. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 825-826.

No abstract.

Stensrud, D. J., 2006: NEHRTP Workshop: Improving weather forecast services used by the electric utility industry. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 499-501.

No abstract.

Stensrud, D. J., N. Yussouf, M. E. Baldwin, J. T. McQueen, J. Du, B. Zhou, B. Ferrier, G. Manikin, F. M. Ralph, J. M. Wilczak, A. B. White, I. Djlalova, J. W. Bao, R. J. Zamora, S. G. Benjamin, P. A. Miller, T. L. Smith, T. Smirnova, M. F. Barth, 2006: The New England High-Resolution Temperature Program. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 491-498.

The New England High-Resolution Temperature Program seeks to improve the accuracy of summertime 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature forecasts in the New England region through a collaborative effort between the research and operational components of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The four main components of this program are 1) improved surface and boundary layer observations for model initialization, 2) special observations for the assessment and improvement of model physical process parameterization schemes, 3) using model forecast ensemble data to improve upon the operational forecasts for near surface variables, and 4) transfering knowledge gained to commercial weather services and end users. Since 2002 this program has enhanced surface temperature observations by adding 70 new automated Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) sites, identified and collected data from over 1000 non-NOAA mesonet sites, and deployed boundary layer profilers and other special instrumentation throughout the New England region to better observe the surface energy budget. Comparisons of these special data sets with numerical model forecasts indicate that near surface temperature errors are strongly correlated to errors in the model predicted radiation fields. The attenuation of solar radiation by aerosols is one potential source of the model radiation bias. However, even with these model errors, results from bias-corrected ensemble forecasts are more accurate than the operational model output statistics (MOS) forecasts for 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature, while also providing reliable forecast probabilities. Discussions with commerical weather vendors and end users have emphasized the potential economic value of these probabilistic ensemble-generated forecasts.

Stensrud, D. J., N. Yussouf, 2007: Reliable probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts from a short-range ensemble forecasting system. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 3-17.

A simple binning technique is developed to produce reliable 3-h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) multimodel shortrange ensemble forecasting system obtained during the summer of 2004. The past 12 days’ worth of forecast 3-h accumulated precipitation amounts and observed 3-h accumulated precipitation amounts from the NCEP stage-II multisensor analyses are used to adjust today’s 3-h precipitation forecasts. These adjustments are done individually to each of ensemble members for the 95 days studied. Performance of the adjusted ensemble precipitation forecasts is compared with the raw (original) ensemble predictions. Results show that the simple binning technique provides significantly more skillful and reliable PQPFs of rainfall events than the raw forecast probabilities. This is true for the base 3-h accumulation period as well as for accumulation periods up to 48 h. Brier skill scores and the area under the relative operating characteristics curve also indicate that this technique yields skillful probabilistic forecasts. The performance of the adjusted forecasts also progressively improves with the increased accumulation period. In addition, the adjusted ensemble mean QPFs are very similar to the raw ensemble mean QPFs, suggesting that the method does not significantly alter the ensemble mean forecast. Therefore, this simple postprocessing scheme is very promising as a method to provide reliable PQPFs for rainfall events without degrading the ensemble mean forecast.

Stolzenburg, M., T. C. Marshall, W. D. Rust, E. Bruning, D. R. MacGorman, T. Hamlin, 2007: Electric field values observed near lightning flash initiations. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L04804-L04804.

From a dataset of about 250 soundings of electric field (E), nine were adversely affected by lightning. These soundings are interpreted as ending near lightning initiation locations. Scaled to standard pressure, the largest observed E was 626 kV m−1 and the largest estimated E was 929 kV m−1. E exceeded runaway breakdown threshold, RBth, by factors of 1.1–3.3 before each flash, and overvoltages were 1.4–4.3. Seven cases had rapid E increases (rates of 11–100 kV m−1 s−1) in the few seconds before the flash, and in three the maximum E occurred 3 s or more before the flash. A tenth sounding with E > RBth for 38 s had subsequent lightning initiate 2 km from the balloon; one channel came within 400 m, but the flash and large E did not adversely affect the instruments. The findings suggest that E > RBth is a necessary condition for lightning initiation, but it is not sufficient.

Available online at ://http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028777.shtml.

Straka, J. M., E. R. Mansell, 2005: A bulk microphysics parameterization with multiple ice precipitation categories. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 44, 445-466.

Straka, J., E. Mansell, D. MacGorman, E. Bruning, C. L. Ziegler, 2007: Comparison of modeled and observed electrical charging and lightning in a low-precipitation supercell storm during TELEX. Preprints, 13th International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, Beijing, China, International Commission on Atmospheric Electricity, 272-275.

Stuart, N. A., P. S. Market, B. Telfeyan, G. M. Lackmann, K. Carey, H. E. Brooks, B. C. Motta, K. Reeves, 2006: The future of humans in an increasingly automated forecast process. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 1-6.

The meteorological community is considering new roles for forecasters as increased accuracy in computer-generated weather forecasts continues to reduce the need for human intervention.

Available online at ://http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/papers/stuart.pdf.

Taylor, A. A., L. M. Leslie, D. J. Stensrud, 2005: Forecasts of near-surface variables using a coupled atmosphere-land surface model. 19th Conference on Hydrology, San Diego, CA, USA, American Meteorological Society, 1.6.

Thompson, W., S. Burk, J. Lewis, 2005: Fog and low clouds in a coastally trapped disturbance. J. Geophysical Research, 110, .

Thompson, W., S. Burk, J. Lewis, 2005: Fog and low clouds in a coastally trapped disturbance. Journal of Geophysical Research - D: Atmospheres, 110, .

Trapp, R. J., S. A. Tessendorf, E. S. Godfrey, H. E. Brooks, 2005: Tornadoes from Squall Lines and Bow Echoes. Part I: Climatological Distribution. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 23-34.

The primary objective of this study was to estimate the percentage of U.S. tornadoes that are spawned annually by squall lines and bow echoes, or quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs). This was achieved by examining radar reflectivity images for every tornado event recorded during 1998-2000 in the contiguous United States. Based on these images, the type of storm associated with each tornado was classified as cell, QLCS, or other. Of the 3828 tornadoes in the database, 79% were produced by cells, 18% were produced by QLCSs, and the remaining 3% were produced by other storm types, primarily rainbands of landfallen tropical cyclones. Geographically, these percentages as well as those based on tornado days exhibited wide variations. For example, 50% of the tornado days in Indiana were associated with QLCSs. In an examination of other tornado attributes, statistically more weak (F1) and fewer strong (F2-F3) tornadoes were associated with QLCSs than with cells. QLCS tornadoes were more probable during the winter months than were cells. And finally, QLCS tornadoes displayed a comparatively higher and statistically significant tendency to occur during the late night/early morning hours. Further analysis revealed a disproportional decrease in F0-F1 events during this time of day, which led the authors to propose that many (perhaps as many as 12% of the total) weak QLCSs tornadoes were not reported.

Trapp, R. J., N. S. Diffenbaugh, H. E. Brooks, M. E. Baldwin, E. D. Robinson, J. S. Pal, 2007: Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104, 19723.

Severe thunderstorms comprise an extreme class of deep convective clouds and produce high-impact weather such as destructive surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. This study addresses the question of how severe thunderstorm frequency in the United States might change because of enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. We use global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model to examine the larger-scale (or "environmental") meteorological conditions that foster severe thunderstorm formation. Across this model suite, we find a net increase during the late 21st century in the number of days in which these severe thunderstorm environmental conditions (NDSEV) occur. Attributed primarily to increases in atmospheric water vapor within the planetary boundary layer, the largest increases in NDSEV are shown during the summer season, in proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal regions. For example, this analysis suggests a future increase in NDSEV of 100% or more in locations such as Atlanta, GA, and New York, NY. Any direct application of these results to the frequency of actual storms also must consider the storm initiation.

Van Den Broeke, M. S., D. M. Schultz, R. H. Johns, J. S. Evans, J. E. Hales, 2005: Cloud-to-ground lightning production in strongly forced, low-instability convective lines associated with damaging wind. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 517-530.

Vasiloff, S. V., D. J. Seo, K. W. Howard, J. Zhang, D. H. Kitzmiller, M. G. Mullusky, W. F. Krajewski, E. A. Brandes, R. M. Rabin, D. S. Berkowitz, H. E. Brooks, J. A. McGinley, R. J. Kuligowski, B. G. Brown, 2007: Improving QPE and Very Short Term QPF: An Initiative for a Community-Wide Integrated Approach. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 1899-1911.

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and very short term quantitative precipitation forecasts (VSTQPF) are critical to accurate monitoring and prediction of water-related hazards and water resources. While tremendous progress has been made in the last quarter-century in many areas of QPE and VSTQPF, significant gaps continue to exist in both knowledge and capabilities that are necessary to produce accurate high-resolution precipitation estimates at the national scale for a wide spectrum of users. Toward this goal, a national next-generation QPE and VSTQPF (Q2) workshop was held in Norman, Oklahoma, on 28–30 June 2005. Scientists, operational forecasters, water managers, and stakeholders from public and private sectors, including academia, presented and discussed a broad range of precipitation and forecasting topics and issues, and developed a list of science focus areas. To meet the nation's needs for the precipitation information effectively, the authors herein propose a community-wide integrated approach for precipitation information that fully capitalizes on recent advances in science and technology, and leverages the wide range of expertise and experience that exists in the research and operational communities. The concepts and recommendations from the workshop form the Q2 science plan and a suggested path to operations. Implementation of these concepts is expected to improve river forecasts and flood and flash flood watches and warnings, and to enhance various hydrologic and hydrometeorological services for a wide range of users and customers. In support of this initiative, the National Mosaic and Q2 (NMQ) system is being developed at the National Severe Storms Laboratory to serve as a community test bed for QPE and VSTQPF research and to facilitate the transition to operations of research applications. The NMQ system provides a real-time, around-the-clock data infusion and applications development and evaluation environment, and thus offers a community-wide platform for development and testing of advances in the focus areas.

Vera, C., J. Beaz, M. Douglas, C. Emmanuel, J. Marengo, J. Meitin, M. Nicolini, J. Nouges-Paegle, J. Paegle, O. Penalba, P. Salio, C. Saulo, M. A. Silva-Dias, P. Silva-Dias, E. Zipser, 2006: The South American Low-Level Jet Experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 63-77.

Verbout, S. M., L. M. Leslie, H. E. Brooks, D. Schultz, D. Karoly, 2005: Tornado outbreaks associated with land-falling tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Preprints, 6th Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes, San Diego, CA, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, 7.1.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/Annual2005/techprogram/paper_84926.htm.

Verbout, S. M., H. E. Brooks, L. M. Leslie, D. M. Schultz, 2006: Evolution of the U.S. tornado database: 1954-2004. Weather and Forecasting, 21, 86-93.

Over the last 50 yr, the number of tornadoes reported in the United States has doubled from about 600 per year in the 1950s to around 1200 in the 2000s. This doubling is likely not related to meteorological causes alone. To account for this increase a simple least squares linear regression was fitted to the annual number of tornado reports. A "big tornado day" is a single day when numerous tornadoes and/or many tornadoes exceeding a specified intensity threshold were reported anywhere in the country. By defining a big tornado day without considering the spatial distribution of the tornadoes, a big tornado day differs from previous definitions of outbreaks. To address the increase in the number of reports, the number of reports is compared to the expected number of reports in a year based on linear regression. In addition, the F1 and greater Fujita-scale record was used in determining a big tornado day because the F1 and greater series was more stationary over time as opposed to the F2 and greater series. Thresholds were applied to the data to determine the number and intensities of the tornadoes needed to be considered a big tornado day. Possible threshold values included fractions of the annual expected value associated with the linear regression and fixed numbers for the intensity criterion. Threshold values of 1.5% of the expected annual total number of tornadoes and/or at least 8 F1 and greater tornadoes identified about 18.1 big tornado days per year. Higher thresholds such as 2.5% and/or at least 15 F1 and greater tornadoes showed similar characteristics, yet identified approximately 6.2 big tornado days per year. Finally, probability distribution curves generated using kernel density estimation revealed that big tornado days were more likely to occur slightly earlier in the year and have a narrower distribution than any given tornado day.

Available online at ://http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/pubs/verboutetal06.pdf.

Verbout, S. M., D. M. Schultz, L. M. Leslie, H. E. Brooks, D. J. Karoly, K. L. Elmore, 2007: Tornado outbreaks associated with landfalling hurricanes in the north Atlantic Basin: 1954–2004. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 97, 255-271.

Tornadoes are a notable potential hazard associated with landfalling hurricanes. The purpose of this paper is to discriminate hurricanes that produce numerous tornadoes (tornado outbreaks) from those that do not (nonoutbreaks). The data consists of all hurricane landfalls that affected the United States from the North Atlantic basin from 1954 to 2004 and the United States tornado record over the same period. Because of the more than twofold increase in the number of reported tornadoes over these 51 years, a simple least-squares linear regression ("the expected number of tornadoes") was fit to the annual number of tornado reports to represent a baseline for comparison.

The hurricanes were sorted into three categories. The first category, outbreak hurricanes, was determined by hurricanes associated with the number of tornado reports exceeding a threshold of 1.5% of the annual expected number of tornadoes and at least 8 F1 and greater tornadoes during the time of landfall (from outer rainbands reaching shore to dissipation of the system). Eighteen hurricane landfalls were classified as outbreak hurricanes. Second, 37 hurricanes having less han 0.5% of the annual expected number of tornadoes were classified as nonoutbreak landfalls. Finally, 28 hurricanes that were neither outbreak nor nonoutbreak hurricanes were classified as midclass hurricane landfalls.

Stronger hurricanes are more likely to produce tornado outbreaks than weaker hurricanes. While 78% of outbreak hurricanes were category 2 or greater at landfall, only 32% of nonoutbreak hurricanes were category 2 or greater at landfall. Hurricanes that made landfall along the southern coast of the United States and recurved northeastward were more likely to produce tornadoes than those that made landfall along the east coast or those that made landfall along the southern coast but did not recurve. Recurvature was associated with a 500-hPa trough in the jet stream, which also contributed to increased deep-layer shear through the hurricane, favoring mesocyclogenesis, and increased the low-level shear, favoring tornadogenesis. The origin of the hurricane, date of landfall, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation phase do not appear to be factors in outbreak hurricane creation. The results of this study help clarify inconsistencies in the previous literature regarding tornado occurrences in landfalling hurricanes.

Available online at ://http://www.springerlink.com/content/8132257282886516/fulltext.pdf.

Wandishin, M. S., M. E. Baldwin, S. L. Mullen, J. V. Cortinas, 2005: Short-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation type. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 609-626.

Wandishin, M. S., D. J. Stensrud, S. L. Mullen, L. J. Wicker, 2008: On the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Two-Dimensional Simulations. Weather and Forecasting, 23, 773-785.

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a dominant climatological feature of the central United States and are responsible for a substantial fraction of warm season rainfall. Yet very little is known about the predictability of MCSs. To help alleviate this situation, a series of ensemble simulations of an MCS are performed on a two-dimensional, storm-scale (dx ~ 1 km) model. Ensemble member perturbations in wind speed, relative humidity, and instability are based on current 24-h forecast errors from the North American
Model (NAM). The ensemble results thus provide an upper bound on the predictability of mesoscale convective systems within realistic estimates of environmental uncertainty, assuming successful convective initiation.

The simulations are assessed by considering an ensemble member a success when it reproduces a convective system of at least 20 km in length (roughly the size of two convective cells) within 100 km on either side of the location of the MCS in the control run. By that standard, MCSs occur roughly 70% of the time for perturbation magnitudes consistent with 24-h forecast errors. Reducing the perturbations for all fields to one-half the 24-h error values increases the MCS success rate to over 90%. The same improvement in
forecast accuracy would lead to a 30%–40% reduction in maximum surface wind speed uncertainty and a roughly 20% reduction in the uncertainty in maximum updraft strength, and initially slower growth in the
uncertainty in the size of the MCS. However, the occurrence of MCSs drops below 50% as the midlayer mean relative humidity falls below 65%. The response of the model to reductions in forecast errors for instability, moisture, and wind speed is not consistent and cannot be easily generalized, but each can have a substantial impact on forecast uncertainty.

Wang, B., J. Zhang, W. Xia, K. Howard, X. Xu, 2008: Analysis of radar and gauge rainfall during the warm season in Oklahoma. Preprints, The 22nd Conf. on Hydrology, New Orleans, LA, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, P2.1.

Ware, E. C., D. M. Schultz, H. E. Brooks, P. J. Roebber, S. L. Bruening, 2006: Improving snowfall forecasting by accounting for the climatological variability of snow density. Weather and Forecasting, 21, 94-103.

Accurately forecasting snowfall is a challenge. In particular, one poorly understood component of snowfall forecasting is determining the snow ratio. The snow ratio is the ratio of snowfall to liquid equivalent and is inversely proportional to the snow density. In a previous paper, an artificial neural network was developed to predict snow ratios probabilistically in three classes: heavy (1:1 < ratio < 9:1), average (9:1 <= ratio <= 15:1), and light (ratio > 15:1). A Web-based application for the probabilistic prediction of snow ratio in these three classes based on operational forecast model soundings and the neural network is now available. The goal of this paper is to explore the statistical characteristics of the snow ratio to determine how temperature, liquid equivalent, and wind speed can be used to provide additional guidance (quantitative, wherever possible) for forecasting snowfall, especially for extreme values of snow ratio. Snow ratio tends to increase as the low-level (surface to roughly 850 mb) temperature decreases. For example, mean low-level temperatures greater than −2.7°C rarely (less than 5% of the time) produce snow ratios greater than 25:1, whereas mean low-level temperatures less than −10.1°C rarely produce snow ratios less than 10:1. Snow ratio tends to increase strongly as the liquid equivalent decreases, leading to a nomogram for probabilistic forecasting snowfall, given a forecasted value of liquid equivalent. For example, liquid equivalent amounts 2.8–4.1 mm (0.11–0.16 in.) rarely produce snow ratios less than 14:1, and liquid equivalent amounts greater than 11.2 mm (0.44 in.) rarely produce snow ratios greater than 26:1. The surface wind speed plays a minor role by decreasing snow ratio with increasing wind speed. Although previous research has shown simple relationships to determine the snow ratio are difficult to obtain, this note helps to clarify some situations where such relationships are possible.

Available online at ://http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/pubs/wareetal06.pdf.

Watts, C. J., R. L. Scott, J. Garatuza-Payan, J. C. Rodriguez, J. H. Prueger, W. P. Kustas, M. Douglas, 2007: Changes in Vegetation Condition and Surface Fluxes during NAME 2004. Journal of Climate, 20, .

Weiss, S., J. Kain, L. Wicker, R. Davies-Jones, D. Bright, J. Levit, G. Carbin, M. Baldwin, 2005: Evaluating the skill of daily explicit predictions of mesocyclones in multiple high-resolution WRF model forecasts during the 2005 SPC/NSSL Spring Program. Preprints, 12th Conf. On Mesoscale Processes,, Albuquerque, NM, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., no preprint.

Weiss, C. C., D. M. Schultz, 2006: Synoptic and mesoscale influences on west Texas dryline development and associated convection. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 2.6.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/23SLS/techprogram/paper_115462.htm.

Weiss, S. J., J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, J. J. Levit, M. Pyle, Z. I. Janjic, B. Ferrier, J. Du, M. L. Weisman, M. Xue, 2007: The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed: Collaborative testing of ensemble and convection-allowing WRF models and subsequent transfer to operations at the Storm Prediction Center.. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 6B.4.

Weiss, S. A., W. D. Rust, D. R. MacGorman, E. C. Bruning, P. R. Krehbiel, 2008: Evolving Complex Electrical Structures of the STEPS 25 June 2000 Multicell Storm. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 741-756.

Data from a three-dimensional lightning mapping array (LMA) and from two soundings by balloon-borne electric field meters (EFMs) were used to analyze the electrical structures of a multicell storm observed on 25 June 2000 during the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS). This storm had a complex, multicell structure with four sections, each of whose electrical structure differed from that of the others during all or part of the analyzed period. The number of vertically stacked charge regions in any given section of the storm ranged from two to six. The most complex charge and lightning structures occurred in regions with the highest reflectivity values and the deepest reflectivity cores. Intracloud flashes tended to concentrate in areas with large radar reflectivity values, though some propagated across more than one core of high reflectivity or into the low-reflectivity anvil. Intracloud lightning flash rates decreased as the vertical extent and maximum value of reflectivity cores decreased. Cloud-to-ground flash rates increased as cores of high reflectivity descended to low altitudes. Most cloud-to-ground flashes were positive. All observed positive ground flashes initiated between the lowest-altitude negative charge region and a positive charge region just above it. The storm’s complexity makes it hard to classify the vertical polarity of its overall charge structure, but most of the storm had a different vertical polarity than what is typically observed outside the Great Plains. The electrical structure can vary considerably from storm to storm, or even within the same storm, as in the present case.

Weiss, S. J., J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, J. J. Levit, M. Pyle, Z. I. Janjic, B. S. Ferrier, J. Du, M. L. Weisman, M. Xue, 2007: The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed: Collaborative testing of ensemble and convection-allowing WRF models and subsequent transfer to operations at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, Amer. Mete. [Available from S. J. Weiss, SPC, 120 David L. Boren Blvd, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Since 2003, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has played a leading role in testing various configurations of Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) systems and high resolution WRF models for their operational utility. These test and evaluation activities have occurred during organized collaborative activities in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) in Norman. The HWT is designed to bring research scientists, model developers, and forecasters together to work on issues of mutual interest, facilitating the rapid transfer of research to operations. This organizational framework helps researchers and model developers to better understand the operational challenges and requirements of forecasters, educates forecasters on new science and technological advances, and has accelerated the application of new modeling approaches to severe weather forecasting. This paper focuses on the use of the operational NCEP SREF and two experimental high resolution convection-allowing WRF models as complementary sources of information for SPC forecasters.

NCEP is running a 21 member multi-model, multi-analysis SREF system with enhanced physics diversity four times daily with output through 87 hours. SPC processes the grids from all SREF members and produces a large variety of products for severe weather forecasting, including standard spaghetti, mean and spread, probability, and max/min charts, as well as specialized multi-parameter convective fields and post-processed calibrated probabilities for the occurrence of thunderstorms, dry thunderstorms, and severe thunderstorms.

NCEP has also been running an experimental high resolution WRF-Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM4) for the SPC since April 2004; this model was recently upgraded to a 4 km grid length. And starting in November 2006, SPC forecasters have had access to output from a 4 km Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW4) developed by NCAR and run at the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Both WRF models are initialized from a cold start once daily at 0000 UTC using initial and lateral boundary conditions from the operational North American Mesoscale model, and provide forecasts through a 36 hour period over a domain covering approximately three-fourths of the U.S. Several unique WRF products have been developed for use by severe weather forecasters, including simulated reflectivity and measures of updraft rotation in model-generated storms.

The incorporation of SREF and high resolution WRF guidance into an operational severe weather forecasting environment already dealing with high volumes of observational and model data requires careful assessment of the unique strengths of each modeling system, and knowledge of the specific needs of SPC forecasters. Since the SPC severe weather forecast mission focuses on phenomena smaller than that predicted by mesoscale models, such as tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, the traditional forecast methodology has focused on first predicting the evolution of the mesoscale environment and then determining the spectrum of convective storms a particular environment may support. SREF output has been found to be particularly useful in quantifying the likelihood that the environment will occupy specific parts of convective parameter space, as well as the likelihood and timing for thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms to develop over Outlook-scale regions. While this can be extremely helpful to SPC forecasters, more detailed information about the intensity and mode of storms is also needed, since the type of severe weather (e.g., tornadoes, damaging wind) is often strongly related to convective mode. The value of the high resolution WRF guidance is most evident here, as it has capability to resolve near storm-scale convective characteristics, such as the development of discrete cells ahead of a line of storms, and the development of model storms with rotating updrafts.

We will examine the complementary role of SREF and high resolution WRF output during several strongly-forced and weakly-forced severe weather days during the winter and spring severe weather period and illustrate the operational application of these model datasets in the SPC decision-making process for both Convective Outlooks and Watches.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124772.pdf.

Xu, Q., 2005: Non-modal growths of symmetric perturbations produced by paired normal modes. 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, 6M4.

Xu, Q., K. Nai, L. Wei, P. Zhang, L. Wang, H. Lu, Qingyun Zhao, 2005: Progress in doppler radar data assimilation. 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, JP1J7.

Xu, Q., W. Gu, S. Gao, 2005: Nonlinear oscillations of semigeostrophic Eady waves in the presence of diffusivity. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 22, 49-57.

Xu, Q., 2005: Representations of inverse covariances by differential operators. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 22, 181-198.

Xu, Q., L. Wei, H. Lu, K. Nai, Q. Zhao, 2006: Phased-array radar data assimilation at the National Weather Radar Testbed -- Theoretical issues and practical solutions. Preprints, Fourth European Conference on Radar Meteorology, Barcelona, Spain, ERAD multiple Sponsors. See http://www.grahi.upc.edu/ERAD2006/i, 515-518.

Available online at ://http://www.grahi.upc.edu/ERAD2006/index.php.

Xu, Q., S. Liu, M. Xue, 2006: Background error covariance functions for vector wind analyses using Doppler radar radial-velocity observations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 2887-2904.

Xu, Q., K. Nai, L. Wei, 2007: An innovation method for estimating radar radial-velocity observation error and background wind error covariances. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 407-415.

Xu, Q., 2007: Measuring information content from observations for data assimilation: Relative entropy versus Shannon entropy difference. Tellus, 59A, 198-209.

Xu, Q., 2007: Modal and non-modal symmetric perturbations. Part 1. Modal solutions and partial orthogonality. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 1745-1763.

Xu, Q., T. Lei, S. Gao, 2007: Modal and non-modal symmetric perturbations. Part 2. Non-modal growths measured by total perturbation energy. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64, 1764-1781.

Xu, Q., K. Nai, L. Wei, H. Lu, P. Zhang, S. Liu, D. Parrish, 2007: Estimating radar wind observation error and NCEP WRF background wind error covariances from radar radial-velocity innovations. Extended Abstracts, 18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1B.3.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/123419.pdf.

Xu, Q., L. Wei, H. Lu, Q. Zhao, C. Qiu, 2007: Time-expanded sampling for ensemble-based filter with covariance localization: assimilation experiments with a shallow-water equation model. Preprints, 18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 6B.1A.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/123409.pdf.

Xu, Q., H. Lu, L. Wei, Q. Zhao, 2007: Studies of phased-array scan strategies for radar data assimilation. Extended Abstracts, 33rd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Cairns, Australia, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4A.3.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/122972.pdf.

Xu, Q., L. Wei, H. Lu, C. Qiu, Q. Zhao, 2008: Time-expanded sampling for ensemble-based filters: Assimilation experiments with a shallow-water equation model. Journal of Geophysical Research - D: Atmospheres, 113, .

Xu, Q., H. Lu, L. Wei, S. Gao, M. Xue, M. Tong, 2008: Time-expanded sampling for ensemble Kalman filter: Assimilation experiments with simulated Radar observations. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 2651-2667.

Xu, X., K. Howard, J. Zhang, 2008: An Automated Radar Technique for the Identification of Tropical Precipitation. Journal of Hydrometeorology, x, xx-xx.

Xu, Q., L. Wei, S. Healy, 2009: Measuring information content from observations for data assimilations: connection between different measures and application to radar scan design. Tellus, 61A, 144-153.

The previously derived formulations for using the relative entropy and Shannon entropy difference to measure information content from observations are revisited in connection with another known information measure – degrees of freedom for signal, which is defined as the statistical average of the signal part of the relative entropy. For a linear assimilation system, the statistical average of the relative entropy reduces to the Shannon entropy difference. The formulations are extended for four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar). The extended formulations reveal that the information content increases (or decreases) as the model error increase (or decrease) and/or become strongly (or weakly) correlated in 4D space. These properties are also highlighted by illustrative examples, and the extended formulations are shown to be potential useful for designing optimum phased-array radar scan configurations to maximize the extractable information contents from radar observations by a 4DVar analysis system.

Xue, M., F. Kong, D. Weber, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. S. Wandishin, M. C. Coniglio, J. Du, 2007: CAPS realtime storm-scale ensemble and high-resolution forecasts as part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2007 Spring Experiment.. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 3B.1.

Xue, M., F. Kong, D. B. Weber, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. S. Wandishin, M. C. Coniglio, J. Du, 2007: CAPS realtime storm-scale ensemble and high-resolution forecasts as part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2007 Spring Experiment. Preprints, 22th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, 3B.1. [Available from Ming Xue, CAPS, 120 David L. Boren Blvd, Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

As a continuation of past collaborations with the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT), the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma will produce daily 10-member 4-km-resolution ensemble forecasts during the spring of 2007, as contributions to the HWT 2007 Spring Experiment. At the same time, a single 2-km deterministic forecast will be produced over the same domain that covers two thirds of the continental US. The forecasts will start from 2100 UTC and extend to 0600 UTC of the third day for a total length of 33 hours. The experiment will start in mid-April and last for about 2 months.

The CAPS effort in 2007 will use the WRF ARW model and the ensemble will include both initial/boundary condition and physics perturbations. The initial and boundary condition perturbations will come from the NCEP 2100 UTC SREF forecast cycle, with the control-member initial condition coming from the NAM 2100 UTC analysis on the 12 km grid. The physics perturbation members are designed for easy identification of the strengths and weakness of leading microphysics and PBL schemes within WRF.

Selected data fields will be fed directly into the NAWIPS systems in the HWT for use by experimental forecast and evaluation teams in the Spring Experiment. These will be combined with separate deterministic WRF forecasts at 3 km grid spacing, contributed by NCAR and EMC. Additional data fields from the CAPS runs will be posted on the web in realtime for external verification purposes. These include side by side comparisons of 2-km forecast composite reflectivity with the NSSL national reflectivity mosaic at 5-minute intervals and graphical displays of a large array of 2-D fields and ensemble products, including postage stamps and probability maps

Over 1000 CPUs at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center (PSC) will be used to produce the forecasts while additional processors at the University of Oklahoma Supercomputing Center for Education and Research (OSCER) will be used for post-processing. A special super-high-speed link capable of 200 MB/s will be set up between PSC and OSCER for data transfer.

Results of realtime forecasts and preliminary retrospective analysis on selected cases will be presented at the conference.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124587.pdf.

Yeary, M., R. Palmer, M. Xue, T. Y. Yu, G. Zhang, A. Zahrai, J. Crain, Y. Zhang, R. Doviak, Q. Xu, P. Chilson, 2008: Introduction to multi-channel receiver development for the realization of multi-mission capabilities at the National Weather Radar Testbed. Extended Abstracts, 24rd Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS), New Orleans, LA, USA, AMS, 9A.3.

Yussouf, N., D. J. Stensrud, 2006: Prediction of near surface variables at independent locations from a bias-corrected ensemble forecasting system. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 3415-3424.

The ability of a multimodel short-range bias-corrected ensemble (BCE) forecasting system, created as part of NOAA’s New England High Resolution Temperature Program during the summer of 2004, to obtain accurate predictions of near-surface variables at independent locations within the model domain is explored. The original BCE approach produces bias-corrected forecasts only at National Weather Service (NWS) observing surface station locations. To extend this approach to obtain bias-corrected forecasts at any given location, an extended BCE technique is developed and applied to the independent observations provided by the Oklahoma Mesonet. First, a Cressman weighting scheme is used to interpolate the bias values of 2-m temperature, 2-m dewpoint temperature, and 10-m wind speeds calculated from the original BCE approach at the NWS observation station locations to the Oklahoma Mesonet locations. These bias values are then added to the raw numerical model forecasts bilinearly interpolated to this same specified location. This process is done for each forecast member within the ensemble and at each forecast time. It is found that the performance of the extended BCE is very competitive with the original BCE approach across the state of Oklahoma. Therefore, a simple postprocessing scheme like the extended BCE system can be used as part of an operational forecasting system to provide reasonably accurate predictions of near surface variables at any location within the model domain.

Yussouf, N., D. J. Stensrud, 2007: Bias-Corrected Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Near-Surface Variables during the 2005/06 Cool Season. Weather and Forecasting, 22, 1274-1286.

A postprocessing method initially developed to improve near-surface forecasts from a summertime multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system is evaluated during the cool season of 2005/06. The method, known as the bias-corrected ensemble (BCE) approach, uses the past complete 12 days of model forecasts and surface observations to remove the mean bias of near-surface variables from each ensemble member for each station location and forecast time. In addition, two other performance-based weighted-average BCE schemes, the exponential smoothing method BCE and the minimum variance estimate BCE, are implemented and evaluated. Values of root-mean-squared error from the 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature forecasts indicate that the BCE approach outperforms the routinely available Global Forecast System (GFS) model output statistics (MOS) forecasts during the cool season by 9% and 8%, respectively. In contrast, the GFS MOS provides more accurate forecasts of 10-m wind speed than any of the BCE methods. The performance-weighted BCE schemes yield no significant improvement in forecast accuracy for 2-m temperature and 2-m dewpoint temperature when compared with the original BCE, although the weighted BCE schemes are found to improve the forecast accuracy of the 10-m wind speed. The probabilistic forecast guidance provided by the BCE system is found to be more reliable than the raw ensemble forecasts. These results parallel those obtained during the summers of 2002–04 and indicate that the BCE method is a promising and inexpensive statistical postprocessing scheme that could be used in all seasons.

Yussouf, N., D. J. Stensrud, 2008: Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System during the 2005/06 Cool Season. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 2157-2172.

A simple binning technique developed to produce reliable probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from a multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system is evaluated during the cool season of 2005/06. The technique uses forecasts and observations of 3-h accumulated precipitation amounts from the past 12 days to adjust the present day’s 3-h quantitative precipitation forecasts from each ensemble member for each 3-h forecast period. Results indicate that the PQPFs obtained from this simple binning technique are significantly more reliable than the raw (original) ensemble forecast probabilities. Brier skill scores and areas under the relative operating characteristic curve also reveal that this technique yields skillful probabilistic forecasts of rainfall amounts during the cool season. This holds true for accumulation periods of up to 48 h. The results obtained from this wintertime experiment parallel those obtained during the summer of 2004. In an attempt to reduce the effects of a small sample size on two-dimensional probability maps, the simple binning technique is modified by implementing 5- and 9-point smoothing schemes on the adjusted precipitation forecasts. Results indicate that the smoothed ensemble probabilities remain an improvement over the raw (original) ensemble forecast probabilities, although the smoothed probabilities are not as reliable as the unsmoothed adjusted probabilities. The skill of the PQPFs also is increased as the ensemble is expanded from 16 to 22 members during the period of study. These results reveal that simple postprocessing techniques have the potential to provide greatly improved probabilistic guidance of rainfall events for all seasons of the year.

Yussouf, N., D. J. Stensrud, 2008: Impact of high temporal frequency radar data assimilation on storm-scale NWP model simulations. Preprints, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Savannah, GA, USA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 9B.1. [Available from Nusrat Yussouf, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK, USA, 73072.]

Radial-velocity and reflectivity observations from Doppler radars can provide important information for initializing numerical storm-scale prediction models and in diagnosing the evolution of severe weather events like thunderstorms and tornadoes. Recent research indicates that the assimilation of Doppler radar data using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) approach generates good estimates of storm structure. While the conventional Doppler radar takes 4-5 minutes to scan a thunderstorm, the new and emerging Phased Array Radar (PAR) rapid and adaptive scanning technology can scan the same storm in less than a minute and can enhance the scanning angles in real time to get a better depiction of the storm top. Thus, in an effort to explore the impact of high temporal frequency PAR observations in storm assimilation, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are designed using the EnKF as a method for initializing storm-scale numerical forecast models.

Several different OSSEs are conducted with radial-velocity and reflectivity observations constructed from simulated supercells in native radar coordinates using a realistic volume averaging technique. Two sets of experiment are run for each OSSE. One experiment assimilates the simulated Doppler radar observations while the other experiment assimilates the high temporal frequency PAR observations. Results obtained are compared to document the value of new PAR observations to the creation of improved storm analyses and short-range ensemble forecasts.

Available online at ://http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/141555.pdf.

Zhang, P., S. Liu, Q. Xu, Lulin Song, 2005: Storm targeted radar wind retrieval system. 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, P8R1.

Zhang, P., S. Liu, Q. Xu, 2005: Quality control of Doppler velocities contaminated by migrating birds. Part I: Feature extraction and quality control parameters. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 22, 1105-1113.

Zhang, S. W., C. J. Qiu, Q. Xu, 2005: Reply. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 44, 551-552.

Zhang, G., Q. Cao, M. Xue, P. Chilson, M. Morris, R. Palmer, J. Brotzke, T. Schuur, E. Brandes, K. Ikeda, A. Ryzhkov, D. Zrnic, E. Jessup, 2008: A field experiment to study rain microphysics using video disdrometers and polarimetric S and X-band radars. Preprints, Symposium on Recent Developments in Atmospheric Applications of Radar and Lidar, New Orleans, LA, USA, American Meteorological Society, P2.23.

Zhang, J., K. Howard, X. Xu, 2008: A warm season radar QPE algorithm using adaptive Z-R relationships. Proc. World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2008, Honolulu, HI, USA, Amer. Soc. Civil Engineers, CD-ROM, 420.pdf.

Zhao, Q., J. Cook, Q. Xu, P. Harasti, 2005: Improving very-short-term storm predictions by assimilating radar data into a mesoscale NWP model. 32nd Conference on Radar Meteorology, Albuquerque, NM, USA, American Meteorological Society, CD-ROM, XXXX.

Zhao, Q., J. Cook, Q. Xu, P. Harasti, 2006: Using radar wind observations to improve mesoscale numerical weather prediction. Weather and Forecasting, 21, 502-522.

Zhao, Q., J. Cook, Q. Xu, P. Harasti, 2008: Improving short-term storm predictions by assimilating both radar radial-wind and reflectivity observations.. Weather and Forecasting, 23, 373-391.

Zhu, W. H., D. M. Schultz, D. W. Kennedy, K. E. Kelleher, N. N. Soreide, 2007: The National Severe Storms Laboratory Historical Weather Data Archives data management and web access system. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 1679-1683.

Ziegler, C. L., M. S. Buban, E. N. Rasmussen, 2007: A Lagrangian Objective Analysis Technique for Assimilating In Situ Observations with Multiple-Radar-Derived Airflow. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 2417-2442.

A new Lagrangian analysis technique is developed to assimilate in situ boundary layer measurements using multi-Doppler-derived wind fields, providing output fields of water vapor mixing ratio, potential temperature, and virtual potential temperature from which the lifting condensation level (LCL) and relative humidity (RH) fields are derived. The Lagrangian analysis employs a continuity principle to bidirectionally distribute observed values of conservative variables with the 3D, evolving boundary layer airflow, followed by temporal and spatial interpolation to an analysis grid. Cloud is inferred at any grid point whose height z > zLCL or equivalently where RH ≥ 100%. Lagrangian analysis of the cumulus field is placed in the context of gridded analyses of visible satellite imagery and photogrammetric cloud-base area analyses. Brief illustrative examples of boundary layer morphology derived with the Lagrangian analysis are presented based on data collected during the International H2O Project (IHOP): 1) a dryline on 22 May 2002; 2) a cold-frontal–dryline “triple point” intersection on 24 May 2002. The Lagrangian analysis preserves the sharp thermal gradients across the cold front and drylines and reveals the presence of undulations and plumes of water vapor mixing ratio and virtual potential temperature associated with deep penetrative updraft cells and convective roll circulations. Derived cloud fields are consistent with satellite-inferred cloud cover and cloud-base locations.

Ziegler, C. L., E. N. Rasmussen, M. S. Buban, Y. P. Richardson, L. J. Miller, R. M. Rabin, 2007: The "Triple Point" on 24 May 2002 during IHOP. Part II: Ground-Radar and In Situ Boundary Layer Analysis of Cumulus Development and Convection Initiation. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 2443-2472.

Cumulus formation and convection initiation are examined near a cold front–dryline “triple point” intersection on 24 May 2002 during the International H2O Project (IHOP). A new Lagrangian objective analysis technique assimilates in situ measurements using time-dependent Doppler-derived 3D wind fields, providing output 3D fields of water vapor mixing ratio, virtual potential temperature, and lifted condensation level (LCL) and water-saturated (i.e., cloud) volumes on a subdomain of the radar analysis grid. The radar and Lagrangian analyses reveal the presence of along-wind (i.e., longitudinal) and cross-wind (i.e., transverse) roll circulations in the boundary layer (BL). A remarkable finding of the evolving radar analyses is the apparent persistence of both transverse rolls and individual updraft, vertical vorticity, and reflectivity cores for periods of up to 30 min or more while moving approximately with the local BL wind. Satellite cloud images and single-camera ground photogrammetry imply that clouds tend to develop either over or on the downwind edge of BL updrafts, with a tendency for clouds to elongate and dissipate in the downwind direction relative to cloud layer winds due to weakening updrafts and mixing with drier overlying air. The Lagrangian and radar wind analyses support a parcel continuity principle for cumulus formation, which requires that rising moist air parcels achieve their LCL before moving laterally out of the updraft. Cumuli form within penetrative updrafts in the elevated residual layer (ERL) overlying the moist BL east of the triple point, but remain capped by a convection inhibition (CIN)-bearing layer above the ERL. Dropsonde data suggest the existence of a convergence line about 80 km east of the triple point where deep lifting of BL moisture and locally reduced CIN together support convection initiation.

Ziegler, C. L., E. N. Rasmussen, M. Buban, Y. Richardson, L. J. Miller, R. Rabin, 2005: The boundary layer cumulus formation process near a cold frontal-dryline intersection on 24 May 2002 during IHOP. Preprints, 11th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Albuquerque, NM, USA, AMS, J6J.2.

Ziegler, C. L., E. Mansell, J. Straka, D. MacGorman, D. Burgess, 2007: Impact of varying inversion strength on the electrification, lightning, kinematics, and microphysics in a simulated supercell storm. Preprints, 13th International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, Beijing, China, International Commission on Atmospheric Electricity, 225-228.

Ziegler, C. L., E. R. Mansell, J. M. Straka, D. R. MacGorman, D. W. Burgess, 2008: Impact of Spatially Varying Inversion Strength on the Evolution of a Simulated Supercell Storm.. Extended Abstracts, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Savannah, GA, USA, American Meteorological Society, P10.10.

Ziegler, C. L., K. Kuhlman, M. Biggerstaff, D. Betten, L. Wicker, E. Mansell, D. MacGorman, 2008: Evolution of low-level rotation in the tornadic 29 May 2004 Geary, Oklahoma supercell storm. Extended Abstracts, 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Savannah, GA, USA, AMS, 2.2.

Two mobile C-band Doppler SMART radars sampled a high-precipitation, tornadic supercell storm on 29 May 2004 during its severe, right-moving phase. Bulk parameters of the storm’s near-environment were obtained from approximately hourly, storm-following mobile GPS advanced upper-air sounding system (MGAUS) profiles obtained within the storm’s inflow extending from its initiation stage through the time of maximum low-level rotation in central Oklahoma. Analysis of the high-resolution, dual-Doppler three-dimensional airflow focuses on identifying downdraft source regions and estimating vorticity dynamical processes that contribute to the development of the low-level mesocyclonic and tornado-cyclonic circulations.

During the storm’s most intense phase, a storm-scale rear-flank downdraft boundary (RFDB) intersected the conventional forward flank downdraft boundary (FFDB) within the wrapping inflow to the intensifying low-level mesocyclone. The combined dataset facilitates preliminary testing of the hypothesis that the low-level mesocyclone is intensified via the classical mechanism of solenoidal (horizontal streamwise) vorticity generation followed by tilting and stretching with contributions from both the RFDB and FFDB. The evolution of the low-level angular momentum field will also be examined as a preliminary test of the alternate hypothesis that RFD development combined with strong stratification of horizontal angular momentum may combine to trigger a corner-flow collapse process leading to low-level mesocyclogenesis. This case illustrates the likely hypothesis testing procedures for other supercell storms sampled by the SMART radars during the upcoming VORTEX2 field project.