FXUS64 KJAN 252132
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2004


.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FOLLOW CURRENT TREND OF RETREATING LOW CLOUD DECK THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR GENERALLY FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SLY 
FLOW CONTINUING...WILL SEE LOWER TEMPS TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MASS IS 
ADVECTED FROM LA/ERN TX. 

LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK RETURNING LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD 
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DECK SEEN 
UPSTREAM POISED TO DROP INTO REGION IN DEVELOPING NLY FLOW MONDAY 
EVENING. MID LEVEL DECK FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE SW DURING THE 
DAY BUT MOISTURE NOT VERY DEEP AND EARLIER ADVERTISED COLD POOL TO 
BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY SO WILL REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE 
FORECAST. MODELS INDICATE LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT 
THOUGH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN AND MODEL GRAPHICS BRING LIGHT 
PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO NRN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. WILL UNDERCUT MOS FOR 
NOW BUT ADD MENTION OF FEW SPRINKLES NRN ZONES. WILL ALSO SEE A 
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
 
AIR MASS DRYING EARLY TUESDAY FOR DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. CURRENT 
THINKING IS THAT MOISTURE WILL ERODE BEFORE MID LEVEL COLD POOL 
FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DRY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE AREA BY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT 
APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH 
SO WILL ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
 
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE YET TO CONVERGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT 
THEY ALL ARE NOW LEANING TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND. 
TIMING IS OFF BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT WE WILL SEE A BOUNDARY  
APPROACHING FROM THE N WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS UP FROM THE SW 
GULF. MODELS NOW DAMPEN THE ARCTIC INTRUSION ADVERTISED EARLIER AS 
THE NEXT SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY OR 
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY GENERAL AT BEST BUT WILL ADJUST 
TEMPS UPWARD FOR NOW FOR THE LAST FEW PERIODS.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&